Atkore - Q3 2024
August 6, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good morning. My name is Mark, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Atkore's third quarter fiscal year 2024 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, again, press star one. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Matt Kline, Vice President of Treasury and Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin, sir.
Matthew Kline (VP of Investor Relations)
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I'm joined today by Bill Waltz, President and CEO, as well as David Johnson, Chief Financial Officer. We will take your questions after comments by Bill and David. I would like to remind everyone that during this call, we may make projections or forward-looking statements regarding future events or financial performance of the company. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties such that actual results may differ materially. Please refer to our SEC filings in today's press release, which identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our projections or forward-looking statements. In addition, any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA, and any reference to EPS or adjusted EPS means adjusted diluted earnings per share. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted diluted earnings per share are non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of non-GAAP measures and a presentation of the most comparable GAAP measures are available in the appendix to today's presentation. With that, I'll turn it over to Bill.
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Thanks, Matt, and good morning, everyone. Starting on slide three, in the third quarter, organic volume was essentially flat year over year. We saw strength in our construction services business due to large mega projects and from solar due to increased production in our Hobart, Indiana, facility. These gains were offset by broad pricing softness across most of the electrical business. We did not see a noticeable summer construction uptick in demand, as is generally the case. Pricing was softer than expected due to the slower end markets, particularly for our PVC conduit business and higher concentration of large projects where pricing tends to be more competitive. Overall, selling prices were also down 4% sequentially from the second quarter. Volume grew 8% sequentially and 4% year to date. The third quarter proved to be more challenging than we initially projected. While our net sales were within the range of the outlook we presented back in May, Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Diluted EPS were both off the midpoint by 4%. Our lower than projected EBITDA was due to overall softer than expected market conditions. We believe the current market is flat to slightly lower than last year. However, this trend varies by major business. Another challenge we are facing is an increasing amount of imported steel conduit coming primarily from Mexico. There are currently provisions in place between both countries that are meant to limit the amount of steel conduit imports. However, the statistics reveal the amount of conduit shipped from Mexico into the United States far exceeds these negotiated limits. This reality has been acknowledged by others within the industry, prompting a call to action. These increased amounts of foreign steel conduit negatively impact our volume year-over-year, while the overall market, inclusive of imports, has grown year-over-year. We also continue to experience softness in the telecom and the utility markets. Despite the challenges we are facing in the market, we are progressing well in our own operations and are confident in our long-term opportunities. We are pleased to share that our production and shipments of solar torque tubes at our Hobart, Indiana, facility improved meaningfully from the second quarter to the third quarter. We continued executing our capital deployment strategy during the quarter by repurchasing $125 million in shares, bringing our year-to-date total for shares repurchased to more than $280 million. On that note, I want to remind everyone that as we near the end of our previously approved multi-year, $1.3 billion share repurchase authorization, our board of directors authorized a new $500 million buyback program in May, which will be available upon the completion of our existing plan. This new authorization is consistent with our commitment to returning capital to shareholders and reflects the board's continued confidence in the compelling value of Atkore shares. In light of the challenging market environment, we are adjusting the midpoint of our fourth quarter EBITDA outlook. However, we remain confident in the long-term opportunities for our diversified product portfolio. Overall, our broad product portfolio provides essential elements for nearly all types of construction, especially those that support secular trends, including solar power, data centers, artificial intelligence, infrastructure digitization, grid hardening, and support for the energy transition. The breadth of our product portfolio enables Atkore to be resilient to changing end market demand while remaining a supplier of choice across our channel partners. With that, I'll turn the call over to David to talk through the results from this quarter.
David Johnson (CFO)
Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Moving to our consolidated results on slide four. In the third quarter, net sales were $822 million, and our Adjusted EBITDA was $206 million. We delivered a strong Adjusted EBITDA margin of over 25%. Our declared tax rate was just under 22%. As a reminder, regarding the year-over-year comparison of our tax rate and adjusted diluted EPS, the change in our accounting treatment for the solar credits associated with the IRA in the third quarter of fiscal 2023, drove a tax benefit that lowered our effective tax rate to less than 9%, as we recognized three-quarters of the expected benefits in Q3 of 2023. During the third quarter last year, we changed the accounting treatment from what we had recorded in the first two quarters. This change reflected the benefit of the credits as a reduction of tax provision rather than a reduction in cost of sales. This lower tax rate also helped contribute $0.50 to our higher than expected adjusted EPS of $5.72 last year. Turning to slide five in our consolidated bridges. Our volume in the quarter was essentially flat compared to the prior year, while net sales were at the midpoint of our guide. Our third quarter results were below expectations. While we saw sequential growth in net sales during the quarter, we did not see a lift from the seasonal construction demand. Typically, our third quarter benefits from the seasonality, and we see sequential profit growth. The net impact from solar credits was a reduction in EPS of $0.37 year-over-year. As mentioned in my comments on the previous slide, our change in accounting a year ago added $0.50 to EPS. Moving to slide six, our year-to-date volume increased 4% compared to the prior year, with contributions across the portfolio. We continue to see growth in our overall PVC products category. Our metal framing products also contributed to growth as they benefit from data center expansion. Our year-to-date performance has been impacted by continued softness in the telecom market. As Bill outlined earlier, our steel conduit business has met resistance from a significant increase in imported conduit. Our year-to-date volume has been negatively impacted by this surge in imports. That said, we remain confident in the long-term potential of our diversified portfolio. We expect that our portfolio of value-added products, along with our resilient business model, will continue to provide us with sustainable growth opportunities as our markets stabilize. Turning to slide seven, both segments had strong EBITDA margin performance in the third quarter. Our electrical segment achieved 30% margins. Price versus cost continues to be unfavorable on a year-over-year basis. Last quarter, we acknowledged that in addition to PVC price compression, we also experienced year-over-year declines from our HDPE business, which continued this quarter. Our S&I segment EBITDA margins continued the trend of sequential improvement since the first quarter, achieving just under 14% in the third quarter. This improvement is due in part to better operational performance at our Hobart, Indiana, facility. Turning to slide eight, we continue to execute our capital deployment model, supported by robust cash flow generation. The strength of our balance sheet allows us to be flexible in the ways we deploy capital to deliver value for our shareholders. With that, I'll turn it back to Bill to talk through some updates relating to our FY 2024 outlook, as well as our views on FY 2025.
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Thank you, David. Turning to slide nine. While we achieved three consecutive quarters of adjusted EBITDA over $200 million in fiscal 2024, we currently believe that Q4 will be lower than this trend due to ongoing softness in the overall market, which has led to a more challenging pricing environment. As we look forward to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, we are amending the midpoint of our adjusted EBITDA outlook to $145 million. Our fourth quarter outlook reflects a continuation of or an acceleration of several factors that have impacted us, most notably the pricing dynamics in PVC and import issues in steel conduit, in addition to the overall soft markets diminishing volume growth. As I've discussed at the start of the call, we expect the softness in overall market to continue into the fourth quarter, which impacts both volume and price. Further, domestic manufacturers of steel conduit are likely to face continued pricing pressures to compete with these elevated and increasing steel conduit imports. Turning to slide 10, we have updated our key bridging assumptions for the full year, which is reflective of the items mentioned earlier, which are likely to impact our fourth quarter performance. We are currently in our annual planning process. As we look beyond fiscal year 2024, we now believe that FY 2025 will be our new earnings base.... We expect to see EBITDA improvements from some of our growth initiatives related to solar, HDPE, water, construction, and our regional service centers. Some of these initiatives are still significantly below our original expectations and where we expect these businesses to operate in the midterm, but we do anticipate them to contribute positively year-over-year. For the remainder of the business, we expect to see continued productivity improvements and overall modest volume growth in the low single digits, with the possibility of higher growth as new switchgear capacity comes on board, and further supported by the prospect of a lower interest rate environment. The larger question that remains is what the pricing environment will be as we progress through FY 2025. We expect the environment to remain challenged through the remainder of this year and into FY 2025. Although there are many uncertainties at this time, and we will have a more informed perspective in November, our initial EBITDA estimate for FY 2025 would be around $650 million, given the market environment. However, this estimate could go higher if construction activity in areas such as residential and utility starts to improve. We anticipate having strong free cash flow and will continue to be investor-centric in our capital deployment strategy. We remain focused on preserving our history of transparency and will continue to provide updates on key topics that impact our business. Before we go into Q&A, I also want to address the announcement we made relative to David's departure. Atkore has been extremely fortunate to have David's leadership over the past six years. Under his leadership, Atkore has created a balanced capital deployment model, enabling acquisitions, internal investments, stock repurchases, and quarterly dividends to drive value creation for our shareholders. David will be missed, both as a colleague and an Atkore teammate, and we truly wish him the best in his next chapter. Thank you, David. Looking ahead, Atkore has a strong model for organizational leadership succession planning, which enables a smooth transition. We are fortunate to have two incredibly strong leaders in John Deitzer and James Alvey, who will assume the roles of Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer, respectively, as of August ninth. We look forward to all that is to come with this new phase in Atkore leadership.John and James are working closely with David to ensure a seamless transition, and we are fortunate to have a deep and talented financial team that will help support John and James as they get up and running in their new roles. With that, we'll turn the call over to the operator to open the line for your questions.
Operator (participant)
At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press star, then the number on your telephone keypad. We'll pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup. Andy, your line is now open.
Andrew Kaplowitz (Managing Director)
Good morning, everyone. David, thanks for all your help.
David Johnson (CFO)
Thanks, Andy. Appreciate it.
Andrew Kaplowitz (Managing Director)
So obviously, you revised higher the amount of price versus cost normalization to $325 million this year versus the initial $250 million. But could you give us your latest thoughts on what the overall price cost normalization could end up being versus that initial estimate you gave us of $585 million? And then I think you said, Bill, $650 million is your initial estimate of EBITDA for 2025. When we think about the exit rate in Q4 of $145 million, can you give us some color? What would be the puts and takes versus that run rate in 2025? Anything to quantify would be helpful.
David Johnson (CFO)
Sorry, Andy. Obviously, two very important questions. I think when you look at the $325 this year, I, I will remind everyone that a portion of that does include HDPE, which would not have been in our original estimate of the $585. So if you assume somewhere around $35+ million or so of that price cost is in the $325, we would have been just under $300 this year. So you add that to the $250 last year, you're at $550 or so against the $585. Given where we are right now, what we saw last quarter and what's built into our, our Q4 forecast, you would expect next year to be, you know, over $200, you know, $200-$250 type of range. And then you will see some benefits from our initiatives coming up. Obviously, you'll see some from solar year over year, our global mega projects, so on and so forth, Andy. Very modest kind of volume built into that $650 number, which is what Bill mentioned. So hopefully that helps out.
Andrew Kaplowitz (Managing Director)
It does. And then, Bill, maybe you could elaborate a little more on what changed in the environment between last quarter and this quarter. I think last quarter you did talk about a weaker start to the construction season, but it seems like conditions on the ground got a fair amount worse. Did you see any more project delays than you thought? Did your customers start destocking? I mean, you do have pretty severe decrementals in Q4 versus Q3. Is that just all prices, or there's something else going on?
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Yeah, Andy, I'll say yes to all the above. So in other words, you have to remember, kind of, either our products or our markets, that we serve all markets... and we're proud of that, and things like data centers are, you know, really strong and moving ahead, and so forth, as David just spoke about, you know, as we go into next year, and solar and so forth. But obviously, markets, whether it's commercial construction, you know, I assume from you or other shareholders and, you know, so forth, that utility markets are weak right now. Again, that should bounce back hopefully as we get in the second half and all the other long-term secular trends. But right now, for most of our markets, and especially we called out on the one page, the deck where we showed the percents, the one or two key markets. So that's where like, okay, we serve everything, but if you're PVC, you know, hey, it's utility and residential, and they're just not subdivisions being built at this stage, and obviously, multifamily home is down. So the specific markets that drive us most are much quieter. I do think there's job delays. I would have to start speculating on, you know, how much when the Fed starts cutting interest rates, that should pick up, you know, even into next year. But the markets, and whether you look at public companies, you know, whether a distributor or others that have commented in our markets, but I can tell you from talking without naming them, at least two of the top 10 largest distributors that are private are seeing the same thing we're seeing. Quite frankly, I think worse than we're seeing. So there is a little bit of us, you know, using our RSCs and so forth, that it's a down market in the market—the end market, in the markets we serve right now. So, and that is driving more price competition, Andy, than we thought. That again, you know, I can't control obviously, what our competitors do as they try to fill factories or listen to somebody else saying, "Here's the price you need," and reacting to that. David did call that out, I think, in our prepared earnings as we looked at this quarter. You know, to say, "Hey, if the markets are weaker than they are," and as, you know, obviously it's a crystal ball, but as we go into next quarter, I'd rather get out in front of it now and pick numbers that obviously it's a forecast, but we expect to hit or exceed, probably like every quarter, and then just focus on our fundamentals, which I'm absolutely so convinced of our people and the long-term strategies.
Andrew Kaplowitz (Managing Director)
So one, just one more quick one for me. You mentioned increased import pressure in steel conduit. Can you give us a little more perspective on how much of an impact that is having on the business? We know metal conduit is 20% of your business, but since you called it out, is it having an even bigger impact on your business than that? And I think you are seeing increased competition within core PVC, but is it really the steel stuff that, that hits you more this quarter?
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Yeah, Andy, you did. That's where, again, I assume every company is, but trying to be transparent. But as we go from our fiscal Q3 to Q4, I don't want to rank, but I'll just say it's in the top two challenges in the following way. Just give more color here. There's always, almost for every product, when customers ask, "Is there an import?" Well, yeah, there's a little bit of, like, cable. I'm making up a number, but low single digits, 1% or something coming from Canada. Steel conduit has been that way, and it's grown over 10 years or so from 3%-5% now to, quite frankly, somewhere around 20%. And there's still a, there still is a preference for made in the U.S.A., the quality of the products and everything else.We're dealing with electrical contractors here, you know, that appreciate our brands and want to support American-made. But it's grown to the point that whether I moved first or my domestic competitors have moved, to the point that you just can't tolerate a 15% price decline in that product line. And these are all rough numbers. It's on the quote, job. So as we factor that back into our business here to respond, you know, at some point, you can ignore 5% market share. You can't, you know, at some point, you just can't ignore competition coming in and undercutting the market.
Andrew Kaplowitz (Managing Director)
Appreciate the-
Bill Waltz (CEO)
So long-winded answer to that, Andy. Yeah, thank you, sir.
Andrew Kaplowitz (Managing Director)
Thanks, guys.
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Thanks, Andy.
Deane Dray (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks, David.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of David Tarantino with KeyBanc Capital Markets. David, your line is now open.
David Tarantino (Senior Analyst)
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Good morning, David.
David Tarantino (Senior Analyst)
Maybe just to start out, to put a little bit of finer point on the price normalization, can you give us some color on kind of the incremental $50 million of headwind in the outlook? Just kinda how you think the breakdown is by the incremental headwinds, like, how much is kind of the import headwind versus incremental PVC such, and HDPE pressures?
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Yeah. So I'll try to, and then David can give me more color or whatever, or ask more color. But I do think it's probably split. If I had to, like, Pareto it, I'd give a little bit more to metal conduit that Andy just asked about. I mean, and that is—it's a trend that I mentioned to Andy, that it's not like these guys came out of nowhere, but it's just a reflection, even in last quarter, that going, "Hey, we have to start reacting to this," and we are, and our, you know, customers see it. So that's probably first, then it's probably PVC and HDPE. Again, I want to emphasize a little bit beyond, is there other products dropping 5%, like, year-over-year? Yes, but there's also products going up 5%. So, you know, almost a long-term normalization. You know, a bunch of our products do move around a small sine wave. And when, again, I reference almost David's comment from last quarter, volumes pick up into next year, as a lot of people expect. I'm assuming a stronger market and, you know, we actually could get price. But right now, going into the year or even next fiscal year in this quarter, it's tougher than we expected at the moment.
David Tarantino (Senior Analyst)
Okay, great. Thank you. And then maybe could you give us an update on the ramp of the solar torque tube facility? How has it progressed versus the expectations from last quarter? I know it's early, but maybe could you frame how you're thinking about this into next year?
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Yeah, it's positive. With-- I'll do this and that, the challenge first. The only challenge, which is not a new thing, is we expected to be here, pick a time, nine months ago. But from the standpoint of, and don't hold exact what quarter and so forth, but we're ramping up at double-digit %. You know, our customers are still out there. I think some of the customers, I don't want to speak for them, have a little bit of challenges, you know, on getting utility hookup with solar and stuff like that, but there's enough opportunity out there. We're watching those things, but there's enough opportunity for us that, you know, we're growing. I'm really proud of the team. I mean, albeit that we should have been here before, but at this stage, we're ramping up in every facet as expected. Then, David, to your kind of follow-on question is, our David CFO references, we look into next year, yes, we may have pricing headwinds, but we do have a lot of these growth initiatives. I should add, it's not in the prepared remarks, but at least $50 million, if not more, of incremental EBITDA going into next year. So, you know, we are on track, proud of the team, and obviously there's still pressure to continue to pick up on that number, but things are going well if I look at quarter-over-quarter for the last couple of quarters.
David Tarantino (Senior Analyst)
Okay, great. Thank you.
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Thank you, David.
David Johnson (CFO)
Thank you, David.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Alex Rygiel with B. Riley. Alex, your line is now open.
Alex Rygiel (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you. Good morning. You referenced a softness in the telecom and utility market. I suspect that was year-over-year, but my question is, how are these markets performing sequentially?
David Johnson (CFO)
Honestly flat- Flat... honestly, Alex. I mean, minor little bits of increasing in quotes, which I think maybe is a precursor for better volume kind of going into maybe next quarter, next year. But as we sit here today, I would say not a meaningful sequential increase.
Bill Waltz (CEO)
And then, I don't know, Alex, David just answered for us, and that's what's most important. But just to triangulate it, without calling out obviously any other companies, there are distributors and so forth that have mentioned there are weakness in this market. If you looked at Dodge, they're predicting utility to be down 6% this year. So, yeah, and again, I don't think anyone's going to question the long-term secular trend of electrical and heavy utilities and solar and everything else. It's just right, right now, and as we go into next fiscal year, it's a little bit more challenging than what we probably expected a year ago.
Alex Rygiel (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
And then can you talk a bit about inventory on hand, or in the channel and, and where that stands? And is some of the price weakness due to excessive inventory? Is it all sort of demand-driven based upon competition and imports?
Bill Waltz (CEO)
I'll start. Here's where I would say the following. Now, and I'll almost tie back to utilities because one of, again, the top. Well, two of the top largest customers, just talking, talking to customers all the time, is with specifically utility. They actually figure, again, lots of things, hooking up to the grid, weather, putting in trenches, that contractors are backed up, and that's what's even slowing down distributors. But overall, my sense is that if you were to look back, let's say, two or three years ago or whenever normal was before COVID, the actual inventories out there are about in line. Now, that said, with pricing pressure, no distributors. Well, like the worst thing they can do is buy and devalue stock. They just don't make enough money to have that happen.I think distributors in general are trying to wait and even cut below normal levels. I wouldn't say there's extra inventory, but I would say if you could round off a week right now, distributors, and again, we're delivering well, but frankly, so is our competition delivering well, that you just don't need to have quite the level of stock.
David Johnson (CFO)
Alex, I would say that going into the quarter, I think everyone felt like their inventory levels were somewhat normal under their sense, but I just feel like their activity going out the door is less than they expected, and therefore, I do think that they have a little bit more inventory than they did. So I think they felt like they were kind of in the middle of that right now, and they probably want to leak a little bit of that out, if that makes sense.
Alex Rygiel (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Helpful. Thank you.
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Yep. Thanks, Alex.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Deane Dray with RBC. Deane, your line is now open.
Deane Dray (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I'll also add my congrats to David. That sounds like a fabulous opportunity, and then congrats to John and James.
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Thank you, Deane.
David Johnson (CFO)
Thanks, Dean.
Bill Waltz (CEO)
For David.
David Johnson (CFO)
Thank you.
Deane Dray (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
I want to circle back on the situation on the Mexican steel conduit. I guess that constitutes dumping. Just make sure I heard the number correctly. Bill, you said it now represents 20% of the market?
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Yes.
Deane Dray (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Is that the right number? And if the
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Yeah, it's the direction.
Deane Dray (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, but if the tariffs were enforced, what would that number be?
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Oh, so, let me go without getting too geeky here, 'cause I could go for hours on this one.... it's around 20%. Obviously, it can go up from there, down, is it Mexico versus a little from some other country, all those other factors. In two minutes or less, what happened when NAFTA switched to USMCA, they took down the 25% tariff that was part of NAFTA, and they agreed to not have, quote-unquote, a word, any surging occurring. And over, since that was done, they picked baseline of 2015 to 2017, we're up around, and again, depends on what year and things, sevenfold since then. So it's grown, you know, 50% a year, but it's compounded to the point of being significant. So if you go forward, Dean, and say that hypothetically, the current administration or new administration or a different administration was to implement back to what USMCA requires, already written into contracts or to put a tariff in, that number could drop substantially. And that's why it's hard to gauge next year with pricing. We don't have that built into our, you know, where we did mention the $650. So again, that's where in November, we'll have a little bit more clairvoyance on administrations, interest rates, and things like that. It's a little tougher to predict forecast right now.
Deane Dray (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. But still, I know you've got a lot of moving parts between PVC and the steel situation. The previous expectation was price normalization might be reached towards the end of calendar 2024. That now feels like that's being pushed out. Based upon what you know today, where do you see the best-case price normalization that would happen? Look, I know it's not a fair question-
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Yeah
Deane Dray (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
with the Mexico. Where in, you know, from what you know today, where would normalization happen?
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Here's how I would answer, Dean. Yeah, with the first caveat, but then I'll get to your question, is I and David have mentioned for six years now on calls, you know, we live in a world with two weeks or less backlog, and pricing changes every day. But with, you know, the fine print there of a forecast, one of the comments I made in my prepared remarks is that we think next year will be the baseline. So to say, could some pricing drag on, up, down? Maybe. But I think as you look forward and say, organic growth, one of the things we didn't call out as much is productivity. That's actually strong, higher than budgets. Even with slightly more inflation, we have strong net productivity, and you look at our growth initiatives that will, you know...As the gentleman earlier, David, asked, like, about Hobart that are kicking in place in our global mega projects, that I think next year is the baseline. So I'm not going to put a pin in pricing, but I think it will become de minimis enough that the other things will drive ahead, and, you know, we get back on track of growing earnings, which obviously will be a strong reflection point for our stock that goes with every other fundamental of our company.
Deane Dray (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
All right, I appreciate that. Just last question. What do you have any comments on some of the noise we're hearing about pricing and PVC? I hate to use that word collusion, but really trying to figure out can this be substantiated? Maybe if you could just start with-
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Yeah
Deane Dray (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
- your comments there.
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Yeah. So I'm going to tell you, first is, if you saw some of this stuff going around, it's from a short seller, says they're a short seller. And, Deane, to your question, you've asked over the decade, I am so proud of our internal pricing mechanisms, weekly calls, scatter diagrams, apps that tell us pricing, that we drive our business, and I'm going to claim that report is unsubstantiated from the conclusions it tries to make.
Deane Dray (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
We would agree. Thank you.
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Thanks, Dean.
Operator (participant)
Thanks, Deane. Your next question comes from the line of Chris Moore with CJS Securities. Chris, your line is now open.
Christopher Moore (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, good morning, and congratulations as well to David. Most been answered, but maybe just one more on pricing. Certainly seems like on a relative basis, since the pandemic began, pricing on PVC has, you know, increased more than any other product. Obviously, it's come down significantly. When you look at relative price risk for fiscal 25, is it still fair to think that PVC pricing, you know, still represents, you know, kind of the biggest pricing risk moving forward?
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Yeah, I'll give it a little bit more color, but the end answer is yes, Chris. And again, if you go back to COVID time, with supply-demand constraints, which drives our business, this has been a constant theme since Atkore existed. All of our products that I can think of all went up in margin, so did both our competitors and other industries, maybe not as much. But then with PVC, if you go back to around COVID, you also had a hurricane hit, and my timing could be a little off here, but 4-6 months later, you had the freeze in Texas. So we just had an abnormal thing that therefore allowed more opportunity for someone to say, "Hey, drop your price, take it 3%, 5%, try to fill my factory." Then, if you're up 10%, you know, there isn't as much opportunity for somebody to try to drop their price. So long-winded reason, that's the dramatic thing that's happened in PVC. But yes, I do think it's PVC, and then, you know, we'll see how metal conduit plays out, but at least in this quarter, I think we appropriately scope that. And to Deane's earlier question, or I'm gonna put words in Deane's mouth, you know, administration's focus on the future or on just enforcing a contract that's already been there, that quite frankly, some of our very large corporate competitor CEOs have called out in their earnings. So-
David Johnson (CFO)
Chris, one other thing to remember during that COVID times, not only was there a supply chain disruption, but there was very strong demand.
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Yeah.
David Johnson (CFO)
For me, I think we don't talk enough about the demand aspect of pricing. If we had that type of demand right now, I don't think we'd be talking about pricing like we're talking about today. So I think in that regards, the reason why we would say PVC for next year is probably just more uncertainty around the PVC market for next year as it goes in and affects pricing.
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Yeah, David, and I don't have the number in front of me, but just to echo that, and again, everybody, these are public stuff, but to go single-family homes, it's an average market if you look at some of the information, but no sub developments are being built. And I'm winging a number here, but if you get back to 1.2 million a year starts versus 900,000 starts, the, all this stuff, people unfortunately look at, you know, how are they doing on volume? What did they estimate? Whoever their boss is and stuff above them. And you start getting the Fed dropping rates and residential picking up, some ifs there. That way, we didn't take these into a forecast for next year, but pricing could easily go up.But at this stage, you know, I wanna still stay around what we just said at the 650 at this stage.
David Johnson (CFO)
Chris, one other aspect, and Bill referenced this a little bit as opening comments. When you look at the market right now, kind of the overall construction market, it is made up of large projects becoming a larger piece of the overall activity. And when that happens, two things happen: one, typically, the larger projects are a little bit more price competitive to begin with. So when there's not all these other opportunities, kind of broad construction activity, it gives you less opportunity to do your pricing by, you know, location and so on and so forth. So I think that element right now, we're feeling that in Q3 and going into Q4.
Christopher Moore (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Extremely helpful, guys. Maybe just the last one for me. So $650 is obviously a target, could come up, could come down. Any, you know, kind of EBITDA margin range that accompanies that?
Bill Waltz (CEO)
David, do you wanna-
David Johnson (CFO)
I think basically the way that we try to approach the $650 is we feel like that's kind of the minimum base, Chris, going into next year. So I think that's, you know, our viewpoint as we sit right now. I do believe that going into November, we'll know a lot more, or the team here will know a lot more going into November, you know, with, you know, the uncertainties that exist right now.
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Yeah. But I think to the margin thing, we focus more on year-over-year and quarter X, you know, questions that we answered earlier, versus trying to do a margin, depending on... You know, obviously, margins somewhat depend on this could help us on what our revenue is, and, you know, things like steel costs. Again, I wanna emphasize for everybody, cost is the least factor of things, the market demand, competitor actions, and, you know, our value prop. But like steel costs are dropping, so one could think our revenue could be down if we make even the same price per ton. But again, Chris, the specifics we'll get into-
David Johnson (CFO)
Broadly speaking, not too far off.
Bill Waltz (CEO)
No, I'm not foreshadowing anything. Correct.
Christopher Moore (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. I appreciate that.
David Johnson (CFO)
I mean, one thing-
Christopher Moore (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks.
David Johnson (CFO)
I mean, one thing we could mention, I mean, S&I is starting to get up into that mid-teens again, which I think is certainly helpful also for the enterprise.
Christopher Moore (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. I appreciate it. I will leave it there.
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Cool. Thank you, Chris.
Operator (participant)
Your final question comes from the line of Chris Dankert with Loop Capital. Chris, your line is now open.
Christopher Dankert (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, thanks. I just echo again, congratulations, David, and thanks for all your help here. I guess, you know, first off, and sorry for specifics, but I guess as far as the Hobart ramp goes, any sense that you can give us for, you know, kind of what the utilization rate is today? Obviously, you said, you know, we're hoping to get there sooner, but are we at, you know, 50% utilization today, and that continues to ramp fully into 2025?
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Yeah, no, it's higher than that, Chris, without getting into a precise number. Then you got two things going. So definitely north of 50%. But, I'm going to give you a wide range here, but like to use the 70%. So yeah, but I don't want to lock because, Chris, there's a little bit with almost like my answer to the Mexico with Deane and so forth, is, you know, when you get into this thing called OEE, do you count the fact of preventive maintenance in that number? Do you count that we're not working, we're, you know, starting a third shift, but we're not working 4 shifts, i.e., around the clock with weekends and, you know, SMED event or, you know, how quick we change over and so forth. So we're ramping up. It's definitely above your 50% number, but as we go into next year, there's still growth. Again, not locking numbers, but could we grow 20%-30%? The answer is absolutely to that volume.
Christopher Dankert (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. That's, that's extremely helpful. Thank you. And then, then just, you know, finally for me, I guess, any update on kind of the BEAD program funding timing? I know, you know, New York and California have finally got some stuff stood up. Any anecdotal commentary there or kind of how that could impact HDPE volumes into, into next year?
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Yeah, so great question, Chris. All the questions are great, but I can't imagine if we would have went through the sell side questions and not hit that. I think cautious optimism, which we've always said in 2025. I'm gonna put it more into calendar 2025 than fiscal 2025 because it all gets on when, you know, like, what's the ramp you call success? But to your point, two states have approved it, other states are closed. Whether it's the people making the fiber optic or one of our very large competitors in that segment, you know, are all saying the end of this calendar year and so forth. So I think we've been cautiously optimistic in our guide. We're going to expect to see profit pickups from next year.But I will say, you know, it's definitely going to be a ramp through 2025 and 2026.
Christopher Dankert (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Yeah. Thanks again so much for the color.
Bill Waltz (CEO)
Yeah. Thank you, Chris.
Operator (participant)
This concludes the question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Bill Waltz for closing remarks.
Bill Waltz (CEO)
We shared today our perspective on several challenges that are currently impacting us, and they may continue to impact us in the midterm. Despite these challenges, we have conviction in our people, our strategy, and our processes, which are the three fundamentals of our business system and enable us to remain resilient and focused on the future. With that, thank you for your support and interest in our company. We look forward to speaking with you during the fourth quarter call in November. This concludes the call for today.
Operator (participant)
This concludes this conference call. You may now disconnect.