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ATN International, Inc. (ATNI)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 delivered mixed results: revenue declined 9% year over year to $180.5M, while operating income rose to $8.7M; diluted EPS was $0.14, aided by an $8.9M tax benefit .
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $46.2M, down 9% YoY; sequentially, EBITDA was broadly stable versus Q3 ($45.7M), reflecting US Telecom headwinds and steady International performance .
  • 2025 outlook: revenue “in line” with 2024 (ex-construction), Adjusted EBITDA “essentially flat,” net CapEx $90–$100M, leverage (Net Debt Ratio) flat to slightly better—signaling a pivot from heavy build to monetization and cash flow .
  • Key catalysts for the stock: stabilization of US operations under new leadership, execution on >$370M in grant-funded projects (monetization expected in 2026+), and continued International margin expansion .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • International segment resilience: Q4 International revenue was flat YoY at $94.8M and Adjusted EBITDA rose ~5% YoY; full-year International Adjusted EBITDA grew ~10%—management emphasized “steady revenue growth and margin expansion” .
  • Cash generation and discipline: Net cash from operations increased 16% YoY to $129.2M with working capital improvements and asset disposition gains; 2024 CapEx dialed down to $110.4M (net) per plan .
  • Strategy transition advancing: Management completed the 3-year First-to-Fiber/Glass & Steel cycle and aims to monetize fiber assets; “our focus is on expanding cash flow to fully realize the benefits of these investments” .

What Went Wrong

  • US segment headwinds: Q4 US revenue fell to $85.8M (–18% YoY), impacted by ECF/ACP sunsets, lower construction, and legacy service de-emphasis; domestic Adjusted EBITDA declined 29% in Q4 .
  • Mobility competition in Guyana: International prepaid mobile subs decreased, driven by a new 5G entrant; management is shifting users toward higher-value data plans .
  • 2024 guide cuts and impairment: In Q3, ATNI reduced FY24 revenue and EBITDA guidance and recorded a $35.3M non-cash goodwill impairment tied to US assets—reflecting slower consumer growth and delayed enterprise sales .

Financial Results

Sequential and YoY Performance

MetricQ4 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$199.0 $183.3 $178.5 $180.5
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$3.3 $24.3 $(38.4) $8.7
Net Income attributable ($USD Millions)$(5.8) $9.0 $(32.7) $3.6
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.46) $0.50 $(2.26) $0.14
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$51.0 $48.7 $45.7 $46.2

Notes:

  • Q4 2024 net income benefited from an $8.9M tax benefit .
  • Adjusted EBITDA definitions and reconciliations provided in filings .

Segment and Category Breakdown (Q4 year-over-year)

Category ($USD Millions)Q4 2023Q4 2024
International Telecom Total Revenue$94.5 $94.8
US Telecom Total Revenue$104.5 $85.8
Mobility (Total Company)$28.7 $28.0
Fixed (Total Company)$118.9 $111.7
Carrier Services (Total Company)$35.9 $33.3
Construction (Total Company)$7.0 $1.3
All other (Total Company)$8.5 $6.3

KPIs and Network Metrics

KPIQ4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
HSD Broadband Homes Passed367,200 386,300 396,100 399,500 426,100
HSD Broadband Customers137,300 138,900 140,600 141,100 140,800
Broadband Homes Passed (Total)768,900 789,700 803,300 798,400 800,900
Broadband Customers (Total)212,900 212,500 211,400 205,900 203,200
Fiber Route Miles11,655 11,692 11,880 11,901 11,921
International Mobile – Prepaid350,700 346,400 339,000 336,400 329,300
International Mobile – Postpaid57,000 57,300 57,900 58,700 59,500
International Mobile – Total407,700 403,700 396,900 395,100 388,800
Blended Churn3.33% 3.34% 3.44% 3.47% 3.51%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue (ex-construction)FY 2024$730–$750M $720–$730M Lowered
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2024$190–$200M $182–$188M Lowered
Capital Expenditures (net)FY 2024$100–$110M $100–$110M Maintained
Net Debt Ratio (exit)FY 20242.25x–2.50x 2.3x–2.6x Raised/widened
Revenue (ex-construction)FY 2025N/AIn line with last year Initial
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025N/AEssentially flat Initial
Capital Expenditures (net)FY 2025N/A$90–$100M Initial
Net Debt RatioFY 2025N/AFlat to slight improvement Initial

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024, Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
First-to-Fiber / Glass & Steel initiativesReiterated strategy; HSD growth; EBITDA up 6% in Q2 3-year plan completed; focus shifts to monetization and cash flow From build to monetize/cash flow
Government subsidies (ECF/ACP) impactUS revenue down due to ECF expiry Continued drag on US; pivot to enterprise/carrier solutions Headwind persists; transition underway
International momentumFixed rev and business mobility growth; EBITDA growth in Q3 International Adj EBITDA up; steady revenue; cost optimization Improving margins; steady growth
Grants/BEAD fundingNormalized CapEx supplemented by US grants >$370M grants awarded; substantial completion in 2025, monetization in 2026+ Grant execution as key enabler
Tariffs/macro & supply chainLimited prior discussionTariffs monitored; impact seen as immaterial due to supply chain work Watchlist, not material currently
Legacy tech/copper shutdownLimited prior discussionCopper shutdown progressing (e.g., 1/3 of exchanges in Guyana by YE), Alaska timeline tied to BEAD; 2030 target for broader progress Cost structure optimization over multi-year
Mobile product performanceMobility conversion to higher-margin plans Prepaid declines in Guyana due to new 5G competitor; data plan subs +26% YoY Shift to higher-ARPU data plans

Management Commentary

  • “Despite full-year revenue declining 4% to $729.1 million, we continued to grow our high-speed broadband subscriber base and expand our fiber network reach…deliver Adjusted EBITDA of $184.1 million for the year.” — Brad Martin, CEO .
  • “In our US Telecom segment, we made strategic progress…We faced near-term headwinds from the expiration of subsidy programs…transitioning our domestic business toward sustainable revenue streams, driven by enterprise and carrier solutions.” — Brad Martin, CEO .
  • “Total company revenue for the fourth quarter was $180.5 million, down 9%…reflects…conclusion of the ECF…and lower legacy wholesale roaming revenues…” — Carlos Doglioli, CFO .
  • “We expect Full year revenue in 2025 to be in line with 2024 (ex-construction)…Adjusted EBITDA essentially flat…CapEx $90–$100 million…Net debt ratio in line, with slight potential improvement exiting 2025.” — Carlos Doglioli, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • CapEx trajectory: Management reiterated 10–15% of revenue target with continued improvement versus 2024; reimbursable CapEx/grants are a major dynamic .
  • Enterprise/carrier traction: Business base grew ~6.5% in 2024; international business customers +2.7% QoQ in Q4; growing pipeline for backhaul and spectrum-related capacity .
  • Guyana mobile competition: Prepaid declines due to new 5G entrant; strategy is to move customers to higher-value data plans (+26% YoY) .
  • Spectrum monetization optionality: Company evaluates leasing vs. potential sales selectively to enhance shareholder value .
  • 2025 cadence: Restructuring charges in Q1 similar to prior year; majority of annual results expected in 2H25; target to move leverage closer to 2x medium term .
  • Legacy declines and EBITDA: US profitability down primarily on revenue declines as legacy services wind down; depreciation trending lower given reduced CapEx .
  • Visibility: Carrier-managed services provide better visibility; tariffs monitored but viewed as immaterial; US HSD consumer base grew ~20% in 2024 off a small base .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global Wall Street consensus estimates for Q4 2024 revenue/EPS were unavailable at time of analysis due to SPGI daily request limit; therefore, no beat/miss analysis vs. consensus is included [functions.GetEstimates error].
  • Given the lack of consensus data, investors should focus on sequential trends (Q3→Q4 EBITDA stabilization, EPS normalization) and the 2025 outlook signaling flat revenue/EBITDA while US operations stabilize .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • International strength offsets US transitions: International Adjusted EBITDA growth with flat Q4 revenue provides stability while US pivots to enterprise/carrier revenue streams .
  • Cash flow inflection underway: 16% YoY increase in operating cash flow and reduced net CapEx (2024: $110.4M) support deleveraging and potential capital returns over time .
  • 2025 is a bridge year: Revenue/EBITDA “in line” signals consolidation; majority of annual results expected in 2H25 as US stabilization progresses—positioning for potential growth in 2026 as grants monetize .
  • Watch Guyana mobility mix: Competitive pressure in prepaid should be mitigated by data plan migration; monitor churn and ARPU trends for margin impact .
  • Segment/Category exposure: Construction revenue normalization and carrier services moderation drive near-term headwinds; enterprise/backhaul pipeline is the key swing factor .
  • Balance sheet and leverage: Net Debt Ratio at 2.54x; management aims to trend toward ~2x medium-term—execution on EBITDA stability and asset optimization will be critical .
  • Trading implications: Near-term stock moves likely hinge on US segment stabilization milestones, grant project execution cadence, and evidence of 2H25 EBITDA ramp; any spectrum transactions or dividend/buyback updates could be incremental catalysts .

Additional Q4 2024 Press Releases

  • Dividend declaration: $0.24/share quarterly dividend payable January 8, 2025; record date December 31, 2024 .
  • Earnings press release (Q4 & FY 2024) and conference call details published March 4–5, 2025 .