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Atomera Inc (ATOM)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025 delivered minimal revenue ($0.011M) with negative gross margin due to timing of wafer deposition costs ahead of revenue recognition; GAAP net loss widened to $5.573M and EPS was ($0.17), flat YoY but down QoQ .
- Management reported a record number of MST wafers processed and broader customer interest across GAA, DRAM, RF SOI and power; however, STMicroelectronics will take BCD110 to market without MST, removing near‑term royalty line-of-sight for that program .
- CFO guided Q4 2025 NRE revenue of $0.075M–$0.125M and maintained full-year non‑GAAP OpEx at $17.25M–$17.50M (narrowed from $17.25M–$17.75M in Q1) .
- Strategic updates: appointment of Wei Na as VP of Sales to accelerate licensing, and continued progress in GaN-on-Si through Incize collaboration; both seen as commercialization catalysts .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- “Record number of MST wafers processed for customers” and expanding pipeline across GAA, DRAM, RF SOI, and power, signaling growing engagement breadth .
- New VP of Sales (Wei Na) with 18 years in IP licensing to accelerate conversion of pipeline into license agreements: “perfect time… accelerate the conversion of this strong pipeline into license and commercialization agreements” .
- GaN initiative advancing with Sandia and industry collaboration; device-level testing underway and strategic Incize partnership to accelerate RF characterization and market adoption .
What Went Wrong
- STMicroelectronics decision to launch BCD110 without MST to meet an aggressive schedule; outcome removes immediate royalty visibility for that program despite validated performance gains .
- Gross margin negative in Q3 due to cost timing (MST deposition costs incurred ahead of wafer shipments), pressuring near-term results despite expected NRE revenue in Q4 .
- Operating expenses rose YoY on higher R&D and G&A (stock-based compensation and outsourced fabrication), lifting non-GAAP loss versus prior year .
Financial Results
P&L and Key Metrics (USD Thousands except per-share)
Actual vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)
Operating Expense Breakdown (USD Thousands)
Balance Sheet / Liquidity KPIs
Segment Breakdown
Guidance Changes
Management also noted negative Q3 gross margin was a timing issue (costs recognized ahead of revenue on wafer shipments), with revenue recognition expected across Q4 and into next year .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO on STM outcome and validation: “We achieved… significant performance improvements… [but] reduction in device lifetime… ST… will take BCD110 to market without MST… we no longer have a line of sight to royalty revenue at ST for this particular program… we’ve now developed a very high-performance solution that eliminates the performance reliability trade-off… validated… and already actively discussing with other players” .
- CEO on pipeline breadth: “We are now seeing broader interest than ever in MST across multiple segments including GAA, DRAM, RFSOI and power” .
- CFO on Q4 outlook and margin mechanics: “In Q4, we expect to recognize between $75,000 and $125,000 of NRE revenue… Gross margin was negative this quarter because a portion of the cost for MST deposition… was incurred during this quarter, but the revenue will be recognized as we ship the wafers going forward” .
- CEO on commercialization strategy: prioritize MST starting wafers (RF SOI, GaN) for faster time-to-revenue; pursue OEM-enabled GAA/DRAM/power integrations for large ROI; maintain fiscal discipline .
Q&A Highlights
- STM timeline and rationale: Multiple cycles of validation required by architectural changes; STM confirmed MST performance in simulations but chose to prioritize launch schedule, hence no MST in initial BCD110 release .
- “Transformative” customers: Two referenced in February remain active; large demo runs with extensive wafer splits; multiple other large customers could be transformative as MST integrates into high-impact nodes .
- OEM partner scope: Formal focus on GAA; expanding into DRAM; joint customer engagements planned to leverage partner’s test infrastructure and sales force .
- RF SOI adoption: MST enables lower LNA bias/power while also improving switches via single deposition; customer interest rising with handset architectural changes .
- GaN economics and testing: Early-stage arrangements—each party bearing own costs; aim is to produce shareable RF data to drive collaboration with wafer suppliers and end customers .
Estimates Context
- Q3 2025 EPS came in at ($0.17) vs consensus ($0.14), a miss of $0.03; revenue was $0.011M vs $0.100M consensus, a miss driven by shipment timing and limited NRE recognition in Q3 . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
- Prior quarters: Q2 2025 had $0 revenue vs $0.0M* consensus; Q1 2025 revenue of $0.004M vs $0.0M* consensus, and EPS ($0.17) vs ($0.14)* estimate. Values retrieved from S&P Global.* .
- Given STM’s decision and ongoing demo-centric engagement mix, near-term estimate revisions likely to reduce royalty expectations and tilt toward modest NRE recognition in Q4 and early 2026 .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Near-term royalties from STM’s BCD110 smart power program are off the table; watch for offsets via licenses in RF SOI, GaN, GAA or DRAM where demos are advancing and an OEM partner is adding commercial muscle .
- Q4 NRE revenue ($0.075M–$0.125M) provides some visibility; negative Q3 margin reflective of cost timing rather than structural profitability change .
- Liquidity remains adequate with $20.3M cash at Q3-end; ATM usage in and post‑quarter (~$2.836M combined) incrementally bolstered cash runway .
- Strategic hires (VP Sales) and collaborations (Incize, OEM partner) are aimed at compressing time-to-license; monitor for initial manufacturing licenses in starting-wafer use cases (RF SOI, GaN) as potential early revenue catalysts .
- Operating discipline: FY non‑GAAP OpEx narrowed to $17.25M–$17.50M; investors should track OpEx trajectory relative to demo intensity and headcount additions .
- Narrative shift: from single-customer royalty path to diversified engagements across multiple segments; success will hinge on converting record wafer activity into signed licenses and qualification roadmaps .
- Trading implications: Expect sensitivity to licensing announcements, demo results, and any OEM-partner co-marketing wins in GAA/DRAM; conversely, absence of license milestones could pressure sentiment given continued losses .
Additional Relevant Press Releases (Q3 window and reporting day)
- Incize collaboration to advance GaN-on-Si RF/power devices (July 9, 2025) .
- Wei Na appointed VP of Sales (October 28, 2025) .