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Atomera Inc (ATOM)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered minimal revenue ($0.011M) with negative gross margin due to timing of wafer deposition costs ahead of revenue recognition; GAAP net loss widened to $5.573M and EPS was ($0.17), flat YoY but down QoQ .
  • Management reported a record number of MST wafers processed and broader customer interest across GAA, DRAM, RF SOI and power; however, STMicroelectronics will take BCD110 to market without MST, removing near‑term royalty line-of-sight for that program .
  • CFO guided Q4 2025 NRE revenue of $0.075M–$0.125M and maintained full-year non‑GAAP OpEx at $17.25M–$17.50M (narrowed from $17.25M–$17.75M in Q1) .
  • Strategic updates: appointment of Wei Na as VP of Sales to accelerate licensing, and continued progress in GaN-on-Si through Incize collaboration; both seen as commercialization catalysts .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “Record number of MST wafers processed for customers” and expanding pipeline across GAA, DRAM, RF SOI, and power, signaling growing engagement breadth .
  • New VP of Sales (Wei Na) with 18 years in IP licensing to accelerate conversion of pipeline into license agreements: “perfect time… accelerate the conversion of this strong pipeline into license and commercialization agreements” .
  • GaN initiative advancing with Sandia and industry collaboration; device-level testing underway and strategic Incize partnership to accelerate RF characterization and market adoption .

What Went Wrong

  • STMicroelectronics decision to launch BCD110 without MST to meet an aggressive schedule; outcome removes immediate royalty visibility for that program despite validated performance gains .
  • Gross margin negative in Q3 due to cost timing (MST deposition costs incurred ahead of wafer shipments), pressuring near-term results despite expected NRE revenue in Q4 .
  • Operating expenses rose YoY on higher R&D and G&A (stock-based compensation and outsourced fabrication), lifting non-GAAP loss versus prior year .

Financial Results

P&L and Key Metrics (USD Thousands except per-share)

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($)22 4 0 11
Gross Margin ($)19 4 (62) (117)
Research & Development ($)2,759 3,255 3,004 3,304
General & Administrative ($)1,812 2,088 2,048 2,165
Selling & Marketing ($)248 124 141 207
Total Operating Expenses ($)4,819 5,467 5,193 5,676
Operating Loss ($)(4,800) (5,463) (5,255) (5,793)
Other Income (Net) ($)205 254 288 220
Net Loss ($)(4,595) (5,209) (4,967) (5,573)
Diluted EPS ($)(0.17) (0.17) (0.17) (0.17)

Actual vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)

MetricQ3 2025 ConsensusQ3 2025 ActualBeat/Miss
Revenue ($)$0.100M*$0.011M Miss*
EPS ($)($0.14)*($0.17) Miss*
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Operating Expense Breakdown (USD Thousands)

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Stock-based Compensation ($)907 1,009 1,278 1,342
Adjusted EBITDA (Non-GAAP) ($)(3,881) (4,442) (3,965) (4,440)

Balance Sheet / Liquidity KPIs

MetricDec 31, 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($)25,778 24,123 22,026 20,322
Shares Outstanding (M)30.540 30.704 31.090 31.510

Segment Breakdown

NoteDetail
ReportingAtomera reports minimal engineering services revenue; no segment revenue breakdown is provided .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
NRE Revenue ($)Q3 2025 → Q4 2025Q3 2025: $0–$0.05M Q4 2025: $0.075–$0.125M Raised (period shift)
Non-GAAP OpEx ($)FY 2025$17.25–$17.75M $17.25–$17.50M Narrowed/Lowered

Management also noted negative Q3 gross margin was a timing issue (costs recognized ahead of revenue on wafer shipments), with revenue recognition expected across Q4 and into next year .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
STMicroelectronics smart power (BCD110)Q2: STM shifting to 300mm, delaying qualification timing ; Q1: multiple STM BUs exploring MST beyond smart power STM to launch BCD110 without MST; new MST implementation validated but requires architecture changes; no near-term royalty line-of-sight Setback for near-term royalties; broader STM engagements continue
GAA advanced nodesQ1: OEM partnership signed to accelerate GAA; joint validation and sales motion ; Q2: prioritized applications, weekly OEM collaboration, customer meetings Working with all major GAA players; OEM partner enabling customer roadshow and validation of MST benefits (contact resistance, reliability) Broadening engagement; validation progress
DRAM / MemoryQ1: patents on DRAM sense amps; active discussions with large memory providers ; Q2: advanced memory efforts with OEM partner Engaged with 2 of 3 DRAM makers; exploring MST starting wafer approaches for next-gen DRAM Expanding evaluations
RF SOI (LNAs and switches)Q1: MST can lower LNA bias current/power; starting wafer runs with Soitec ultra-thin RF SOI wafers ; Q2: LNA improvements emphasized by customers Multiple fabs and a fabless player running wafers; LNA benefits plus switch benefits in single deposition Momentum building; potential faster time-to-market
GaN (power/RF)Q1: first MST-enabled GaN devices at Sandia; early electrical data consistent with lower defects ; Q2: expanding to RF; Incize collaboration announced Device fabrication completing with improved performance; Sandia expanding engagements; Incize collaboration driving RF characterization Advancing toward shareable datasets and customer adoption
Licensing funnel / “transformative” customersQ1: two new high-potential transformative customers started; progressing quickly ; Q2: large-scale demo run spanning two BUs; multiple wafer runs across applications Multiple transformative-scale efforts underway; record wafer processing; iterative demo cycles across several customers Broadening scope; intensive demo activity
CHIPS/NSTC & government fundingQ2: NSTC membership to access advanced prototyping; CHIPS-related opportunities likely Sandia interest across technologies; pursuing CHIPS Act channels for near-term revenue Access & potential funding pipeline improving

Management Commentary

  • CEO on STM outcome and validation: “We achieved… significant performance improvements… [but] reduction in device lifetime… ST… will take BCD110 to market without MST… we no longer have a line of sight to royalty revenue at ST for this particular program… we’ve now developed a very high-performance solution that eliminates the performance reliability trade-off… validated… and already actively discussing with other players” .
  • CEO on pipeline breadth: “We are now seeing broader interest than ever in MST across multiple segments including GAA, DRAM, RFSOI and power” .
  • CFO on Q4 outlook and margin mechanics: “In Q4, we expect to recognize between $75,000 and $125,000 of NRE revenue… Gross margin was negative this quarter because a portion of the cost for MST deposition… was incurred during this quarter, but the revenue will be recognized as we ship the wafers going forward” .
  • CEO on commercialization strategy: prioritize MST starting wafers (RF SOI, GaN) for faster time-to-revenue; pursue OEM-enabled GAA/DRAM/power integrations for large ROI; maintain fiscal discipline .

Q&A Highlights

  • STM timeline and rationale: Multiple cycles of validation required by architectural changes; STM confirmed MST performance in simulations but chose to prioritize launch schedule, hence no MST in initial BCD110 release .
  • “Transformative” customers: Two referenced in February remain active; large demo runs with extensive wafer splits; multiple other large customers could be transformative as MST integrates into high-impact nodes .
  • OEM partner scope: Formal focus on GAA; expanding into DRAM; joint customer engagements planned to leverage partner’s test infrastructure and sales force .
  • RF SOI adoption: MST enables lower LNA bias/power while also improving switches via single deposition; customer interest rising with handset architectural changes .
  • GaN economics and testing: Early-stage arrangements—each party bearing own costs; aim is to produce shareable RF data to drive collaboration with wafer suppliers and end customers .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 EPS came in at ($0.17) vs consensus ($0.14), a miss of $0.03; revenue was $0.011M vs $0.100M consensus, a miss driven by shipment timing and limited NRE recognition in Q3 . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Prior quarters: Q2 2025 had $0 revenue vs $0.0M* consensus; Q1 2025 revenue of $0.004M vs $0.0M* consensus, and EPS ($0.17) vs ($0.14)* estimate. Values retrieved from S&P Global.* .
  • Given STM’s decision and ongoing demo-centric engagement mix, near-term estimate revisions likely to reduce royalty expectations and tilt toward modest NRE recognition in Q4 and early 2026 .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term royalties from STM’s BCD110 smart power program are off the table; watch for offsets via licenses in RF SOI, GaN, GAA or DRAM where demos are advancing and an OEM partner is adding commercial muscle .
  • Q4 NRE revenue ($0.075M–$0.125M) provides some visibility; negative Q3 margin reflective of cost timing rather than structural profitability change .
  • Liquidity remains adequate with $20.3M cash at Q3-end; ATM usage in and post‑quarter (~$2.836M combined) incrementally bolstered cash runway .
  • Strategic hires (VP Sales) and collaborations (Incize, OEM partner) are aimed at compressing time-to-license; monitor for initial manufacturing licenses in starting-wafer use cases (RF SOI, GaN) as potential early revenue catalysts .
  • Operating discipline: FY non‑GAAP OpEx narrowed to $17.25M–$17.50M; investors should track OpEx trajectory relative to demo intensity and headcount additions .
  • Narrative shift: from single-customer royalty path to diversified engagements across multiple segments; success will hinge on converting record wafer activity into signed licenses and qualification roadmaps .
  • Trading implications: Expect sensitivity to licensing announcements, demo results, and any OEM-partner co-marketing wins in GAA/DRAM; conversely, absence of license milestones could pressure sentiment given continued losses .

Additional Relevant Press Releases (Q3 window and reporting day)

  • Incize collaboration to advance GaN-on-Si RF/power devices (July 9, 2025) .
  • Wei Na appointed VP of Sales (October 28, 2025) .