AngloGold Ashanti - Q3 2023 TU
November 9, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to AngloGold Ashanti's 2023 third quarter production update. All attendees will be in listen-only mode. There will be an opportunity to ask questions when prompted. If you should need assistance during the call, please signal an operator by pressing star and then zero. I will now hand the conference over to Stewart Bailey. Please go ahead, sir.
Stewart Bailey (Chief Sustainability and Corporate Affairs Officer)
Thanks, Judith, and welcome everybody to the AngloGold Ashanti Q3 2023 production update. We have a brief presentation today looking at the main production performance for the company over the quarter. Alberto will give that, and then we'll go straight to questions. Alberto?
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
Thank you. Thank you, Stewart. We'll start where we always do, with safety. We're immensely proud of another strong performance, as we work hard to keep our people safe, notwithstanding a sometimes challenging operating environment. We will always put safety first. You will actually see an example of that later with Obuasi. We continue to make steady progress on our journey to zero harm. Our total recordable injury frequency rate is probably one of the lowest of the large mining companies in the world, about half of the ICMM. This is an area we dedicate significant time and resources, and realize we're only as good as our last injury-free day. Next slide. I'll make a few brief remarks about our production performance for the third quarter of 2023.
Given our new corporate structure and ahead of our voluntary conversion to Domestic Filer Status in the U.S., we can only report on production and not financial or costs in the third quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. We will, at year-end, and the first half of next year, provide full results, and we anticipate in Q3 of next year resuming full quarter reporting. We saw very strong performance from a number of our key assets, getting us back on a strong footing after the setbacks in the first half. In the first half, the conversion of Cuiabá to a concentrate operation cost us about 13,000 ounces, while the CIL tank failure of Siguiri cost us another close to 30,000 ounces.
Of course, it is natural to trip from time to time, but it is how you get back up that matters, and our performance in the second half will demonstrate that, particularly the recovery at these two sites. We continued to build momentum in our production during the third quarter with a 3% increase versus Q2, a seasonal step up we flagged at the half year on the back of higher ore tons costs. The increase is actually 5% when we adjust for CdS in Brazil, which we placed in care and maintenance during August. Importantly, we are holding to the guidance we issued in February of this year. I repeat, we are holding to the guidance we issued in February of this year, and by this, I mean all guidance. As we've said throughout this year, this will require another step-up in production of Q4.
We anticipate strong finishes at Cuiabá, which will outperform its production guidance from Siguiri, which has bounced back from the tank collapse, and at Obuasi, which is expected to have a similar production performance for Q4 of last year as it overcomes the ground issues it experienced in Q3. We will talk more about this later. The highlights. The big movers in the portfolio were Iduapriem, with a 27% increase in production over Q2, followed by 22% at Siguiri, 13% at Kibali, 9% at Serra Grande, 6% at Geita, and 3% at Tropicana. There were offsets, though, specifically at Obuasi, which I'll talk to in a moment. It's been a busy time for us. We completed our corporate restructure, moving our domicile to the U.K. and our primary listing to the New York Stock Exchange.
We completed the sale of our stake in the Gramalote project in Colombia to B2Gold during October and took the difficult but necessary step during September to place CDS in Brazil on care and maintenance, which will have an overall beneficial impact on our costs and cash flows. This step, which is never taken lightly, comes after an attempt to sell this asset and various interventions to restore it to profitability. As I've said before, we have, as a core principle, that we won't indefinitely cross-subsidize loss-making operations, and that sometimes leads to difficult choices. At Cuiabá, we've seen a very strong turnaround, which will continue into year-end. The performance has been driven by both volumes and grade, and we are forecasting 240,000 ounces for the year.
In short, the much stronger second half in LATAM, along with the decisive actions taken on CdS, will significantly reverse the trend of the first half and get us much and get us to a cash neutral position in Q4. In Nevada, completion of the feasibility study for the North Bullfrog Project is anticipating during the fourth quarter of 2023, while the conceptual study for the expanded Silicon project continues to progress and is anticipating during the fourth quarter of 2023. Starting at Geita, gold production improved versus Q2 by both higher volumes and grades. Production was in line with our expectations, and the operation is on track for its production target of 500,000 ounces. After a couple of soft quarters, a strong production performance was recorded at Kibali.
Production was up 13% quarter-on-quarter and 19% year-on-year. The improved performance was mainly driven by higher ore tons processed and higher overall recovery rates. We are happy to report exploration is expected to more than replace reserves depleted this year, as we have been doing for the past years. Iduapriem strong production performance was also driven by both volumes and grade as we stepped up throughput after commissioning the new TSF and accelerating access to the higher ore grade blocks, higher grade ore blocks. Production at Tropicana was 30% higher quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to improved grades. Moving to the Tier Two mines, Sunrise Full Asset Potential program is again delivering positive results as the underground tons continue to show steady improvements in Q3.
In Q3, the mine recorded an 18.18% year-on-year increase in the underground ore tons processed. We have talked that this was one of the main ideas of the Full Asset Potential. Siguiri also recorded a strong quarter-on-quarter production improvement as the mine stepped up to near-normalized levels of production following the CIL tank failure. At Cuiabá, as I mentioned, mining is back to normal rates and across at Serra Grande, where we are working hard to turn around the performance. There's still a long way to go, but we're encouraged to see higher processing volumes driving an improved result. Obuasi continues, in general terms, I would say, to progress well on the critical areas of work. Most have advanced, let's say, from the last time I spoke at the Denver Gold Forum, as expected.
However, it's a complex mine, and there will always be short-term issues, short-term volatilities in the ramp-up. Particularly, in August and September, production of Obuasi was impacted by very poor ground conditions and some very high-grade stopes. Something we have seen in the past, where mine grades are around 20 g a ton. The poor ground conditions associated with Obuasi's high-grade areas required additional ground support, which slowed down our mining rate and made it difficult to remove all the ore in the stope after a blast. During August, we lost underground mining equipment to fall of ground in this area. While nobody was injured in the accident, the decision was taken to proceed more slowly to ensure safety in our operations. In August and September, we were probably only having around two stopes open, while in normal times we have five to six.
The good news is that, the team, during these, 60 days, figured out what to do in the short term and in the long term. And in October, we're back on track. During October, we began using a significantly larger drilling equipment, a V30 reamer. It's 750 mm. We were using, a drilling with a head of 250, so around three times more area. This more efficiently establishes our new stopes. This, in turn, is allowing us to safely increase our mining rates and to reach similar levels of production to those we achieved last year. We expect a similar Q4 production performance to what we had last year.
So last year, we did 88,000 in the last quarter of 2022, and we're expecting a similar production in the last quarter of 2023. You could understand we already know August, and we have a very good idea of where November is heading. We are also transitioning parts of the mines from the sub-level open stoping method to underhand cut and fill, which is better suited for these conditions and will not only improve safety, but also our overall extraction efficiencies in these areas. This is a common and well-understood mining method designed for conditions like those we're experiencing. It's a method that has been used successfully around the world. Actually, in the call, we have our new COO, Richard. He has experience with this method.
If anybody in the call is expect, wanting details, I'm very glad to have him aboard. You won't get them from me. It's a method, that will help us to move safely and consistently to deliver ore to the plant. This change won't impact our steady-state production expectations at Obuasi, although the trajectory will be slightly altered. In short, we're seeing production this year from Obuasi at similar levels to last year, around 250, stepping up to around 300,000 in 2024, and back to around our original steady-state guidance of 2025, of +400,000 ounces. Okay. In closing, we remain focused on making more improvements and on delivering more consistent results in line with the targets we've set out. We have achieved key milestones over this period, notwithstanding the challenges that we all face.
We have taken clear, decisive steps to address issues we faced in Brazil. We are recovering well at Siguiri and have a robust plan at Obuasi. Our Tier One assets are performing well, with more improvements in the pipeline. We're optimizing our important Tier Two mines and determining with our stakeholders the best forward for our remaining assets. We focus on improving operating and capital efficiencies, and we continue to improve our cost competitiveness. We're also transitioning part of the mine. And, no, I think that is it. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you very much, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now be conducting the question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star then one on your telephone keypad or the keypad on your screen. A confirmation tone will indicate that your line is in the question queue. You may press star two to exit the question queue. Just a reminder, if you're not asked a question, you're welcome to press star and then one. Our first question comes from Adrian Hammond of SBG Securities.
Adrian Hammond (Executive Director, Mining Analyst)
Hi, Alberto. Thanks for the call. Just two questions. I was just curious to know whether your 4% growth target for FY 2024 remains intact, given the setback at Obuasi. Or are there any other levers you can pull, generally speaking, for the group's overall strategy to a longer-term sustainable profile? And then any updates on Tarkwa-Iduapriem JV progress there at all, or and then just what are you seeing in inflation right now? Is it has it been steady since Q2, or has there been some release there? Thanks.
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
Thank you. Look, yes, the guidance for Obuasi in 2024, we have, I think, had told about it was gonna be around 370. So there is a reduction in Obuasi. But overall, I think we gave the guidance that we gave, we still expect to be within the range that we said. I don't remember it from memory. I'm pretty sure that on the guidance we gave on cash costs, we will also probably meet that guidance we gave for 2024, which is important. The JV, look, continues to progress well. The teams are working well. We're having meetings with the government. It's just going probably slower than we want to. And that's why the focus in both companies is that our assets perform well.
We're particularly happy with how the premise function is, as you see, a very big improvement. So that is the main thing. We have to be patient. It is a very good idea to put these assets together, but we can only go as fast as the government wants us to go.
Adrian Hammond (Executive Director, Mining Analyst)
Sure.
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
That was it, or there was another question?
Adrian Hammond (Executive Director, Mining Analyst)
Just, Alberto, on inflation.
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
Oh, inflation. Sorry. Look, we, we continue to see this inflation stuck around, average around the world, I would say 5%. So not higher, but not much lower. And remember, in the places where we are, we showed that in the last set of results, I think Gillian showed that it's, it's usually higher. So I would say that for the next year, we're, as we do our budget and as we prepare for the guidance in February, it's still around 5%.
Adrian Hammond (Executive Director, Mining Analyst)
That's clear. Thanks very much.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question comes from Frederick Bolton. My apologies, please hold the line. My apologies. The next question comes from Frederic Bolton of BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Frederic Bolton (Analyst, Industrials/Engineering)
Hi. Thank you, Alberto. Just a quick question from me on Obuasi. Because you mentioned that you are proposing and moving to cut and fill, can you give us any indication on that, on how that might impact mining costs in general? Thank you.
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
It won't. And basically, it won't impact our costs in any meaningful way. It's actually interesting. We've started a trial already, and we think we will be producing next year about 8% of our tons with this mining method. If you look at it in the sense that we're gonna be able to. If this is not gonna be for all the mine, only for this very deep, sort of, very high-grade areas. When we look at the fact that we're all gonna be able to get the ore, all of it, without dilution, in a much more consistent way, probably the cost will be, if anything, slightly lower.
Although this is, in general, a more expensive mining method, it will probably not have any meaningful, or if anything, we will be able to get less dilution and hence more value.
Frederic Bolton (Analyst, Industrials/Engineering)
Okay, brilliant. Thank you. That's all for me.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question comes from Martin Creamer of Mining Weekly.
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
Hi, Martin.
Operator (participant)
... Martin, you can go ahead. Your line is open.
Stewart Bailey (Chief Sustainability and Corporate Affairs Officer)
Judith, it seems he's dropped off.
Operator (participant)
His line still shows connected, sir.
Stewart Bailey (Chief Sustainability and Corporate Affairs Officer)
All right.
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, just a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, you're welcome to press star and then one to place yourself in the question queue.
Stewart Bailey (Chief Sustainability and Corporate Affairs Officer)
Judith, just, perhaps a reminder that there is a facility for the webcast as well. No questions on there at the moment, but if anyone does have, please to post those.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, just one final reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, you're welcome to press star and then one to place yourself in the question queue.
Stewart Bailey (Chief Sustainability and Corporate Affairs Officer)
All right, Judith, I think that's-
Operator (participant)
Tom?
Stewart Bailey (Chief Sustainability and Corporate Affairs Officer)
Okay.
Operator (participant)
Sorry, sir.
Stewart Bailey (Chief Sustainability and Corporate Affairs Officer)
No, no, go ahead. Go ahead.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from David Hale of Ninety One. Please go ahead.
Dawid Heyl (Analyst)
Hello, guys. I just had a quick question for on the reporting side. It sounds like you are out of scope for South Africa, and you're not in scope yet for the US. So you're kind of in this space where you don't, you know, have a high bar of kind of compliance on the reporting side. So the question is, you know, if you do, you know, have a sort of a surprise or you've got to adjust your guidance, at what point do you have to do that now? You know, if there is a material difference between the expectations and the previous guidance, at what point are you supposed to report that to us? Thanks.
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
I will ask Stewart to help me on this, but I don't. I can talk about this, but I did start the call by saying, maybe if I-- what I said last time, I'll read what I said last time in H2, and nothing has changed from that, I could tell you that. So in H2, we said we're confident of our guidance. We don't take our guidance lightly. Last year, we were probably the only one of the big companies that kept guidance. We work hard on credibility, and so when we are putting out and saying we will keep guidance on production, that's what we will do. And when we say we keep guidance on cash costs, that what is what we will do also.
And in all-in sustaining, we say we think we can, but if anything, we'll be a little bit higher, only a couple of points. So that's what I said in H2, and I, I would be able to say it right now again. But Stewart, from the ICMM one, because it doesn't apply to us, what would you answer?
Stewart Bailey (Chief Sustainability and Corporate Affairs Officer)
Yeah, and look, I think your answer is good there, Alberto. I think, you know, obviously, as Alberto mentioned at the beginning, we're somewhat limited on this call to sort of reporting on production only, and by this time next year, you know, we'll be back fully in the swing of quarterly reporting again.
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
But I would imagine if we had a major issue, we would go under the normal sort of profit warning or something like that, I would imagine. That's why I mean academic or theoretical, because it doesn't apply.
Stewart Bailey (Chief Sustainability and Corporate Affairs Officer)
Yeah, I think that's correct.
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
I think that was more the question, but is that clear?
Dawid Heyl (Analyst)
Yes, that's perfect. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question is a follow-up from Adrian Hammond of SBG Securities.
Adrian Hammond (Executive Director, Mining Analyst)
Hey, Alberto. Since I have the floor, I thought I'd follow up, if I may. I mean, just want to perhaps give you more opportunity to talk about the business here, given the constraints. But can you perhaps give us some color on the progress in the relocation to Denver for your team and how that's going ahead? And perhaps any sort of further color on the progress on the asset potential program. Particularly curious about Geita and what opportunities perhaps you're identifying there, if any, and whether you sort of see Brazil as or not, given the interests, yes.
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
Maybe I'll ask Marcelo, who's in the call, too, to give us some update. It continues to progress very well, the full asset potential, and you will see it. Again, we're restricted, but in February, we will put out guidance in February. Remember that, we had talked about decreasing cash costs, and, well, as I said, we will be able to. We're very much more confident right now with the full asset potential and how we are seeing things to have that, probably to reiterate that guidance. Look, so I'll ask Marcelo to help you on that. The move to Denver has gone well. We actually had the whole ExCo last week.
We were all together, which is actually fabulous, and we did a lot of work and also integration work. Right now, of the ExCo, it's only Stewart that continues in South Africa, and Richard is... Well, usually traveling in Africa between U.K. and Perth, but also spending time. The rest of the executive, which makes six of us, are already living in Denver and happy living in Denver. So I think that has worked. You can see the difference of people in the office and the execs in the office and how things move smoothly, things progress. But Marcelo, why don't you-
Marcelo Godoy (CTO)
Yeah. Thanks, Alberto. Just quickly, Geita. Geita remains on track to achieve its 500,000 ounces for 2023. And it's a very strong result for us, considering the plant shutdown that was happening in Q1. Gold production was 6% higher quarter-on-quarter. It's 126,000 ounces in Q3, compared to 119,000 in Q2, and that's mainly due to higher ore tons processed and higher overall recovery grades. I can say that Geita is one of the most successful sites in achieving full potential targets. We have been concentrating basically three areas: open pit tons, which we have improved considerably, also the Nyankanga underground ore tons, which have improved considerably.
We have a consistent production, much higher than previous years there, and throughput and recovery is another focus for full potential. While throughput has been in a really good spot, recovery has been suffering a little bit because of mix of different materials, but we are pretty happy with full asset potential at Geita and the results it's providing. Back to you, Alberto.
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
Thank you. I thought I... We have some time, Richard, to put you on the spot, but you obviously, you know Geita, you used to run it very well. I've always said that it's underappreciated. What's, again, off the cuff, but you're probably more long-term view of Geita? Not with numbers, but just from-
Richard Jordinson (COO)
Yeah, look, thanks, thanks, Alberto. Yeah, the underground operations, that's all three of them, that's Nyankanga, Star and Comet, and Geita. They're all relatively new operations, so there's an enormous amount of potential at depth in terms of developing and mining, producing more ounces. In particular, Nyankanga is the premier underground operation. It's got the grade, it's got the ounces. So, that has some fantastic potential on an underground basis. As far as open pit, Nyankanga is a, I'd say, a medium-sized pit. It's sitting at around 2.5 g per ton. It will go for the next 5+ years, and we'll have significant stockpile beyond that as well. But it's...
From my experience, it's got to be one of the most prospective areas of exploration, certainly brownfield exploration. Wherever you drill, you tend to find some gold. So look, it's got enormous potential as well from an exploration within the SML as well. So, yeah, it's a terrific asset. Definitely a tier one. Thanks, Alberto.
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
Thank you, Richard. Good. Look, before there's other, we can... another question, but probably let me summarize this production results with, well, probably the year in production. We obviously, it's not normal to have such significant events like we had. The, a tank failure, it's, it probably, the investigation says it's something that happened about 18 or 20 years ago, and suddenly we had this tank failure in Siguiri, and that cost us, as I said, about 20,000 ounces. And then the Cuiabá, basically a change in regulation. I won't dwell on it again, but, it, the first quarter, if you remember, was very difficult from the first and second quarters from the impact of these two.
But it's, as I said, always how you recover, and so I'm very, I have to say, pleased with how the year is ending with Siguiri almost back to normal. Cuiabá, we did put out, said, "Okay, we may do around 180,000, and we're going to finish probably doing more than the previous year." But that's just the team has done an extraordinarily good job. You can imagine when we talked about in February, March, April, the expected cash flow negative of Brazil was very significant. And again, I can't talk about that, but I can't wait for February to talk about this, because with this production, things have changed for the better, pretty significantly.
And then Obuasi, yes, we had in August and September, but that's just in the normal of an ore body like this. But again, we're back on track, and we haven't changed our long-term guidance. So 35, 36, and all of that is as we have spoken in the past. So I'd probably finish by saying I can't really, you may have noticed that I'm restricted by the lawyers more than I would have wanted, but that's how it is. We can't really talk about more, and I can't wait for February because, yeah, it will be quite interesting results and quite interesting view of 2024.
Stewart Bailey (Chief Sustainability and Corporate Affairs Officer)
Judith, I have a couple of questions from the webcast. Can I go to that now, please?
Alberto, I'll start off with Mark Hasse from Oaktree, who says, "Could we just talk about progress on a solution for Serra Grande? And second, any updates on Cuiabá, with respect to tailings?
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
Look, Serra Grande, the objective of Serra Grande for next year is that it is cash neutral. And I think that we're going to achieve that. It, it is not the case, it, it is not the case for this year. And so, yeah, overall, probably in Brazil, what is amazing that is happening is we have a very good team. I've said it in the past. Again, it started with our acting CEO, then Marcelo, going to Brazil, and just really taking the very hard and difficult decisions. And then having a new team. We have Marcelo Pereira, the new SVP, we have a new finance, we have new GMs in Cuiabá, we have a new GM in Serra Grande. And so things are progressing very well.
We've said in the past that if we find a good buyer, and by good buyer is one that, more than anything, can ensure the continuity of what it would license to operate, that we would contemplate it. But if not, we're prepared for with care and maintenance in CdS, and then, with it taking Serra Grande to a slightly, let's say, cash positive situation. So Cuiabá, what we've said before is that it was gonna take this year to do all the drilling on all of that and determining the geotechnical work to support that buttressing program, and that is handling. The timing for completion of that is expected to be at the end of this year, in next, next month.
And then with that, we will start the work that should be happening all through 2024. So, what I, again, I will reiterate, the most important thing is Cuiabá today has obviously a safe TSF, number one. It is producing positive cash flow. It's managed to stabilize in a with this system of producing gold gravimetrically, about 30% and 70% in concentrate. We've got into good agreement, so we're quite happy with how it is right now. But yes, we will be working on the buttressing during 2024. It is an issue of time. It's not an issue of money. As I said, this is relatively in the scheme of things, in the $ dozens of millions, probably to the lower end of dollars.
So it's not a big thing. It just takes a long time. It's a more complicated operation. I don't know, maybe, Marcelo, if you can complement me on this.
Marcelo Godoy (CTO)
Sure, Alberto. Like in the Cuiabá, the good news in Cuiabá is that we, Cuiabá dam itself is now out of the emergency level, so all the emergency plans have been accepted. The dam is stable, and the engineering is ongoing. So we have two major dams there, Cuiabá, which is where we put this filtered tailings from the flotation plant, and there is the Córrego do Sítio plant in care and maintenance right now.
That other dam, the Calcinados dam, is also in the same process of engineering being developed, and we expect to have the plans for next in the next couple of months, to have detailed capital costs and project schedule for the completion of that buttress in 2024.
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
Okay.
Stewart Bailey (Chief Sustainability and Corporate Affairs Officer)
Marcelo, I have another couple from the webcast. Alberto, Cameron Needham from Bank of America says: "In terms of full asset potential, how do you think about balancing giving operational teams at each asset time to deliver improvements versus perhaps looking to undertake alternative measures for sites?
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
Look, there, there's... You have to trust the teams. Again, there is. How the Full Asset Potential works, just to remind, is it starts with. It's a mutual effort between a team at the center, less and less we're using consultants, and the asset on the ground. But in the end, it's the asset on the ground that delivers it, the management on the ground who owns it, and the ones that they agree of a timeline to deliver. You have to trust your people on the ground, and that's how we are following. What we do is there is a cadence. Once we define, okay, this will be done in X number of months, and this is the S-curve.
There are meetings in which I particularly participate monthly, but I know that Richard and Marcelo have a much greater cadence, and that's how it's done. There is really no, there's always a sense of urgency, but as long as the assets are not losing money, it's not like we have to say, "Well, you have to do it in a shorter time." The most important thing of all of these programs is the ownership of the people on the ground, and that's what we will keep doing.
Stewart Bailey (Chief Sustainability and Corporate Affairs Officer)
Thanks, Alberto. Then Martin Creamer is back. We lost him from the line earlier, but he says, "Could you just provide some insight into the decarbonization project at Geita, and then more generally?
The decarbonization at Geita. Richard?
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
I can maybe, Richard, just start off-
Good.
and then throw over to you if there's anything else. So, Martin, effectively, what that is, is we're tying, we use diesel gen sets to generate the bulk of the power for the plant, for the processing plant at Geita, and have done for a long time, and we are shifting that to the national grid, which has got a higher proportion of its energy that comes from alternative sources, mainly hydro. And then we'll keep those diesel gen sets on site as backup. That process with the state utility in Geita will be happening over the end of this year and into next year. You see a significant drop in our emissions on site from that.
It's a very good project for us, actually, and, you know, obviously dependent on hydro levels in the dams in Tanzania being at, you know, in a good state. But that's moving per plan, and so, you know, by around mid, mid-year next year, you should start seeing that full benefit come in. It's actually a reduction in tariff and obviously a reduction in emissions as well. Richard?
Richard Jordinson (COO)
Nothing to add there, Stewart. That was the... You covered it.
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
Thanks. And then just more generally, Martin, you'll see that we signed the deal with Pacific Energy at Tropicana. Construction is actually or that project is kicked off, and you'll be seeing. So what we have on our plate at the moment is Tropicana and Geita. After that, you know, we'll, you know, Ghana is sort of potentially next on the list with a very big solar project there, and we'll provide some more detail on that into the new year. Judith, I think we have one more question on the on the conference call from Tanya. We can take that.
Operator (participant)
Thank you very much, sir. The next question comes from Tanya Jakusconek of Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Tanya Jakusconek (Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst, Precious Metals)
Great, good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for taking my question. I apologize if you've already dealt with this. As you know, there's three calls going on at the same time. So I have a question on Obuasi, if I could, and I have seen that you have struggled with some ground conditions, and you are looking to change the mining method from, you know, longhole stoping to cut and fill. I know that Alberto, you mentioned that 25, 26, you know, production profile long term of that 450,000 ounces hasn't changed. But can you talk a little bit about if that's had any impact to 2024? And obviously, cut and fill is more expensive than longhole stoping.
Has anything changed on the costing front, on the long-term mine plan? Thank you. That's my first question.
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
Thank you, Tanya. I'll ask Richard to help me, but we did cover it, that we haven't... There's no material impact on costs. And if anything, we believe that this will allow us to go, this is not for all the grounds, it's for the difficult ones. It will allow us to have less dilution and go quicker, and probably the scheme of things, it will end up adding, well, there's no doubt it will add more value than if we kept with the current system. But Richard, maybe you help me.
Richard Jordinson (COO)
Yeah. Just so you're informed, without open stoping, we paste fill, so with paste. So paste is associated with both mining methods, underhand cut and fill, and long hole open stoping, as a first. So, there's no. We don't expect any material impact in cost, in terms of an increase. Yeah, so, and as far as, once we've established the working areas and the working phases, we expect to have a lot more reliability and a consistent supply of particularly high-grade ore to the plant. So, due to the ground conditions, it's just too, there's too much delay in sorting out the ground control issues.
So, we've elected to the trial starts. We've got a trial stope starting this quarter. We'll have a very good idea how it's all performing by the end of first quarter next year, and then beyond that, we don't expect any major issues. It's more of a learning exercise, actually, just to make sure we get the process correct and our assumptions, test our assumptions from a technical point of view, and then we'll, you know, as time goes by, we'll move all the mining blocks into underhand cut and fill, particularly the high-grade ones. Yeah. Thanks. I hope that answers your question.
Tanya Jakusconek (Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst, Precious Metals)
Richard, what percentage of the ore body are you forecasting to be this cut and fill versus the longhole, like, the stoping method?
Richard Jordinson (COO)
Well, next year, we're anticipating around 25,000 ounces. So, a little over 10%, 10-15%, next year for 2024. But it'll increase over time as we open up these areas.
Tanya Jakusconek (Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst, Precious Metals)
Okay. I was just kind of thinking from a reserve standpoint, how, you know, what percentage do you think would have to be treated, you know, by cut and fill? Like, just for us, it's like, should we be thinking like it's gonna be that 15%-20% of the ore body?
Richard Jordinson (COO)
No, no, no. It's gonna be most of the ore body. You see, as we get deeper, we have to deal with the higher-grade stopes, right? So this is—this method will be a lot more viable in the high-grade areas with... and generally have poor ground conditions. So I would suggest in a few years time, as time goes by, the most of the production will come from underhand cut and fill.
Tanya Jakusconek (Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst, Precious Metals)
Okay. All right. Well, that's helpful. Thank you.
Richard Jordinson (COO)
But there should be no material impacting cost, as I said, 'cause both methods use paste-
Tanya Jakusconek (Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst, Precious Metals)
Yeah.
Richard Jordinson (COO)
which, as we know, is expensive, you know.
Tanya Jakusconek (Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst, Precious Metals)
Yeah, no, I understand about the paste fill and cut and fill. I'm just trying to understand as well, like in terms of getting... You're doing a test work next year, and I guess you have a contractor or experts there on this mining methods. Cut and fill is used in very selective mining, as you know. Just not-
Richard Jordinson (COO)
Yeah.
Tanya Jakusconek (Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst, Precious Metals)
Everybody has that expertise. I'm just wondering where you're getting the expertise from.
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
Well, fortunately, Tanya, we have the expertise in-house because both Richard has done it, and also we have our GM of Geita. Terry has also had significant experience. So of course, we're getting people from the outside, but fortunately, we have probably our two most senior underground experts in this method.
Tanya Jakusconek (Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst, Precious Metals)
No, that's good.
Richard Jordinson (COO)
That's correct.
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
It is. It is good.
Tanya Jakusconek (Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst, Precious Metals)
I wanted to ask one more question, if I could-
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
Sure.
Tanya Jakusconek (Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst, Precious Metals)
and it was to do with 2024, and I know you're, you're gonna talk more about, you know, what's happening in, in February. Can you remind me, Alberto, in February, are we getting two-year guidance? Are we getting 2024 and 2025?
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
Yes.
Tanya Jakusconek (Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst, Precious Metals)
I'm just trying to understand what we're getting-
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
Yes
Tanya Jakusconek (Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst, Precious Metals)
in February, and then what, what are we getting long term? When are we getting more than two years?
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
So we're getting two years in February, and in February, I'll answer you the second question. We're still struggling. We're still-
Tanya Jakusconek (Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst, Precious Metals)
Okay.
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
I'll use the excuse, I can't talk about costs for that. But yeah, I'll tell you in February. I know that we've progressed, but we're-
Tanya Jakusconek (Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst, Precious Metals)
Yeah.
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
We're doing a lot of things, but it's for sure 2024 and 2025.
Tanya Jakusconek (Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst, Precious Metals)
Okay. Then, in terms of reporting for us, so we understand. Full year financials in February, then in Q1 of next year, we're still only getting the production numbers. Then, in June of 2024, that's when we start to go to full reporting under US GAAP quarterly. Is that how I should think about it?
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
Yes.
Tanya Jakusconek (Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst, Precious Metals)
Okay. I look forward, Alberto, to more information in February, so lots to come. Thank you.
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
Yeah, yeah. I can't wait either, because, yeah, things are progressing well, thank God.
Richard Jordinson (COO)
Yeah.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. It appears we have no further questions on the conference lines. I will now hand back to Stewart Bailey for closing remarks.
Richard Jordinson (COO)
I in turn will hand over to Alberto.
Alberto Calderon (CEO)
Okay. Well, thank you again, all for attending the conference. I probably already said my closing remarks before of the year that's been. We're quite happy with how things are finalizing. Obviously, you always have to go to the end, but yeah, there's a... It's a significant quarter as we see. October already, maybe probably, if I end with that, if we only repeat what we saw already in October and November, December, everything that we've said will materialize. So yeah, we just need to keep the inertia of October and, and yeah, it's-- we'll talk again in February, and then with probably Adrian, for you, we'll see cash costs, and we'll discuss it in February. I'm looking forward to that. Okay.
Thank you very much.
Richard Jordinson (COO)
Thanks, Judith. Thanks, everybody.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's event. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.