AngloGold Ashanti - Earnings Call - Q4 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the AngloGold Ashanti full year 2024 results. All participants will be in listen-only mode. There will be an opportunity to ask questions later during the conference. If you should need assistance during the call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero. Please note that this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Stewart Bailey. Please go ahead, sir.

Stewart Bailey (Chief Corporate Affairs and Sustainability Officer)

Thanks, Danae, and welcome everybody to our call for the full year 2024 and Q4 2024 financial and operating results. You have on the call, as always, Alberto Calderon, our CEO, and Gillian Doran, our CFO. Other members of our executive team are present. You'll have the opportunity to ask questions either on the phone lines or on the webcast after the presentation. And before we commence, I'd just like to point you to the safe harbor statement on slides two and three of the presentation that contains important information regarding forward-looking statements that may be made, and I encourage you to read it. Without further ado, I'll hand over to Alberto.

Alberto Calderon (CEO)

Thanks, Stewart. Safety is our priority. We're proud of the strides we have made in recent years, but mindful always that we're only ever as good as our last day. This year, we had a painful reminder of the fact following the light vehicle accident in May that claimed the life of Obed Nketsiah. We have investigated that incident and implemented a range of recommendations to mitigate the risk of a recurrence. As we pan out and look at the company's performance as a whole, we reported a TRIFR of 0.98 injuries per million hours worked in 2024, the first time below one and a record for our portfolio, moreover, less than half of the average of the ICMM members. It's my privilege to report back on this third year in our journey to transform AngloGold Ashanti into one of the world's most valued gold mining companies.

You'll remember in early 2022, I sketched out a clear strategy to do that. We started by replacing the old, confusing operating model with one that was not only simpler and clearer, but which empowered and resourced our operations and properly located responsibility at every level. With that foundation in place, we moved quickly in a number of key areas. First was to improve safety outcomes. We immediately narrowed our focus on the main fatal hazards that exist in every mine site and created clear controls to mitigate them. Second, we set a clear pathway to regain cost competitiveness relative to our peers. My key enabler here was the rapid rollout of Full Asset Potential, not only to assist on that efficient journey, but to improve the resilience and predictability of our business. Third was to improve focus and execution in every part of the organization.

We did this by stripping away distractions and focusing on the work essential to delivering the right outcomes. Fourth was to prioritize a strong balance sheet and improve returns to our shareholder. And fifth, which we announced a few months later, was to overhaul our corporate architecture by moving our corporate headquarters and listing to the United States. So how is that all going for us? It's no exaggeration to say the operating model has revolutionized our business. Internal processes have been modernized, decision-making is more agile, and in my view, we have the best senior leadership team in the industry. The new structure and expertise has allowed the highly successful rollout of Full Asset Potential across the business. Our costs, which had blown out to their widest gap relative to our peers at around $300 an ounce, are now within double digits.

In fact, we've seen real cost improvements in each of the past three years, and that's against the backdrop of the worst inflation in a generation. We have dramatically reduced our cash lock-up position, and we're reliably hitting guidance on our managed assets. We've stripped away long-running projects that never seemed to move to an investment decision like Gramalote and mothballed CdS. Free cash flow is at its strongest in well over a decade and leverage at its lowest since 2011. And you see the dividend payout ratio has been increased to half of free cash flow with a 50%, $0.50 per share minimum. We've successfully relocated our base and listing while maintaining an important presence in Johannesburg. That's placed us in the world's largest capital market and alongside the industry's highest valued peers.

The stock has responded, providing us a currency we were able to use to make our first meaningful and a creative acquisition in two decades. We've come a long way, but there's, as always, more to do. Let's look at the numbers for Q4 and 2024. What we could control last year, we controlled very well. Production was up in Cuiabá, Serra Grande, Siguiri, Sunrise, and Tropicana. Our cash costs and all-in sustaining costs were again down for the third year in a row in real terms. Our free cash flow was dramatically stronger. We have found a way to optimize production at Obuasi, one of the most magnificent but also complex ore bodies in the world. We have chartered a path forward to its potential above 400,000 ounces per year. As is usual in mining, we were hit by unusually high rains mainly in Tropicana and Iduapriem.

They both operations made the best in dealing with the unforeseen, best demonstrated by the 5% year-on-year increase in Q4 production. And finally, our non-operated JV Kibali came in significantly below plan. The key takeaway from our results is our ability to discipline costs to ensure the full benefit of the higher gold price flows straight through to the bottom line. You'll see here close to a tenfold increase in free cash flow to $942 million. Adjusted EBITDA almost doubled to $2.8 billion, and there's a $1.2 billion turnaround in basic earnings over the prior year. Our balance sheet has rarely looked stronger. We have no material near-term maturities. Leverage is almost zero.

To match that reality and the valid expectation that shareholders should see greater benefits from our improving business and higher gold prices, we increased our dividend payout ratio to 50% of free cash flow payable quarterly and a minimum dividend, which we commit annual payment of $250 million. What does this look like? Gillian will talk to the detail, but we will pay an interim dividend of $347 million for each two, taking the 2024 full year payout to $439 million. Next slide. Look at our portfolio. Tier One assets account for almost 70% of production, including Sukari's 2024 production. These assets account for about 80% of our reserves and about half of the resources. We will see those production numbers improve once Obuasi ramps up and we bring our Nevada asset into production.

Our Tier Two assets are operating very well too, with healthy margins and cash flow leverage especially pronounced in the current gold price environment. We continue to look at other assets in the portfolio with an eye on capitalizing on this market to realize value. On Obuasi, just to recap, Obuasi battled for the greater part of the year to grow volumes from conventional sub-level open stoping areas. That's because of difficult ground conditions at very high grades. We've now successfully pivoted to a hybrid approach with conventional slot stoping deployed in relatively lower grade areas. That is less than eight, around eight grams a ton and more selective underhand drift and fill where we find higher grades.

You'll see in our results book that the site is busy with development stepping up aggressively in preparing for access to the higher block grade, block 10, and eventually access to the even richer block 11. The good news is that we met a revised target for Obuasi in Q4. We delivered 221,000 ounces in total with around 12,500 ounces from underhand drift and fill. As we mentioned in November last year, this is from a single mining front, and we plan to open at least three more this year. That improved flexibility of additional mining areas along with the higher tons from underhand drift and fill and the significantly quicker times to open our slot stoping give us improved confidence in hitting our marks this year. Our guidance for this year remains for 250,000-300,000 ounces.

Finally, it's worth noting that even with the slower ramp-up we announced last year, Obuasi continues to deliver healthy cash flows to the business. In the second half of 2024, it was roughly $300 of free cash flow per ounce in the H2. Full Asset Potential. It remains a cornerstone of our ability to operate predictably, to drive better cash flows, and to improve the long-term value of the business. Over the past three years, we've delivered value from 200 individual projects, half of which have exceeded our target value. Around a third of those are mining with processing and maintenance, the next big area of focus. Interestingly, around two-thirds of the initiatives were geared to efficiency improvements and a third to cost reductions. That's a good split. This is a powerful illustration of the improvements we've seen in different areas across various sites.

The gap between the dotted line is not only progress, but it's cash flow, and we believe there is more to come. To dive into one of the assets. After three years, we're now in the second or refresh phase of Full Asset Potential with Sunrise. We expect this second round to deliver another exciting set of initiatives. The largest opportunities include accelerating drilling and development of multiple small open pits, which could add as much as one million tons of ore over the next two years. Every ton from a pit will displace very low-grade stocks that we're using to fill the mill, so the upside is significant. We can also continue to increase underground ore volumes by redesigning stopes, having more stopes available, and making better use of remote longholing from the surface.

Building on the work done in wave one to improve recovery, we're now seeing that the current leach train lacks residence times and have scoped the project to introduce concentrated leach. The payback period at more conservative gold price assumptions is close to one year with a benefit of around $1.6 million per month. What is remarkable was that once we had completed the detailed analysis, construction started almost immediately, as you can see from the slide. Finally, a key success for the program has been the introduction of league tables to compare the performance at each site. It's injected some healthy competition into the business. We started with processing, which included comparing recoveries, run times, and tonnage processed as a percentage of the theoretical maximum at each site. This slide shows the relative improvement year-on-year, with an improvement of almost two percentage points between 2023 and 2024.

What is even more exciting is the result we got in Q4, where plants reported closing the gap to 99.6% of theoretical maximum. Everyone wants to be at the top. Nobody wants to be at the bottom. We're less fixated on that and focus more on the upward trend improvement. We've now rolled out league tables to open pit and underground mining and hope to see similar results. And finally, for Full Asset Potential, the proof is in the numbers. And you can see the benefits in the incremental EBITDA of more than $600 million. I will come back to that slide, but just if you do a quick sum of $600 million on three million tons, it's about $200 per ounce. You will see how every single dollar of that has flowed to the bottom line in the last slide. Let's go to the Sukari acquisition.

Since the completion of the transaction, we are pleased to report a seamless transition since week one. The major achievements to date include the deployment of AGA values and Code of Business Principles and Ethics, focus engagement and onboarding, connecting teams to the AGA model, integrating into year-end process and AGA management rituals, site rebranding largely complete, relationships established between Sukari teams and AGA technical teams, maintaining Sukari safety performance and production volumes. As we have mentioned before on the synergies, we currently are assessing Sukari and corporate overheads. We probably continued that. It's about $32 million of savings per year. Supply chain purchasing capacity, there's going to be a visit in the Q2 of this year. We're expecting about $30 million per year. And projects and exploration costs will probably reduce about $100 million of what they plan to spend in 2025.

We leverage AGA's Full Asset Potential program. We expect a significant visit in Q3 of 2024, and we're still confident that we'll get benefits or increases in EBITDA in a range of between $50-$100 million. For 2025, we expect Sukari's cash cost to be slightly lower than 2024. I will mention something you will see in the growth CapEx that it is growing. We are expecting a pre-stripping in Sukari of about a $140 million increase. That will have a significant impact, about an increase of 10% in volumes in the medium term in probably 2026 and maybe in 2027 and 2028. This is growth capital, and this is in our objectives to carry that asset to even better days than what it has had in the past. Let's look at Nevada project. The title, it's a new 20-million-ounce district.

That is quite remarkable when three years ago we had zero. In the U.S., we continue to make very good progress this year on the pre-feasibility study at Expanded Silicon and have continued to add ounces through the drilling. The smaller North Bullfrog project remains in the federal permitting process. We have no fresh update on the timing of that project, although we are in any event working on an iteration to our initial plan that will use far less water, which will be beneficial in the longer term. We expect an update in the next few months from BLM, and as soon as we have that update, we will let you know. As you can see, we've been busy growing this part of our business in the Beatty District. North Bullfrog has added ounces in reserve and resource.

We continue to optimize our project plans and remain excited about the potential for this project as a manageable, profitable, albeit smaller scale start to our re-entry as a major operating in the U.S. At Expanded Silicon, we completed a large drilling campaign last year, which has vastly improved our knowledge of the ore body. We've also improved our infrastructure in the district and will soon put the finishing touches on the pre-feasibility study before releasing it to the market in the second half of this year. Here's a quick look at the familiar slide on the Merlin ore body, our initial point of attack to the Expanded Silicon project. We managed to add another three million ounces of resource, taking it to 12 million ounces. Once again, you'll see a number of new, very exciting intercepts of high grade over significant widths.

The infill drilling to classify a portion of the deposit from an indicated resource in the 3,500 zone has continued to intercept broad zones of between 0.5 and 1.8 grams per ton mineralized intercepts. Foundational of our business, Sukari has provided an injection of new resources to supplement an already healthy mineral inventory. What you'll see from the top waterfall that we've also had good success from our own brownfield efforts across a range of assets. All told, we've added almost 16 million ounces of resource into resource. On reserves, we're pleased to see a good showing again from Geita and Cuiabá, which both managed to replace depletion. But it's important to zoom out and look at the longer-term picture to understand the quality of our exploration effort and the potential in our portfolio. We continue to invest considerable effort and resource in both reserve deployment and brownfield exploration.

This has multiple benefits in reserve conversion, extending mile lines, improving operating flexibility, and supplementing our knowledge of our ore bodies. We have established a good track record. Over the past four years, we've added almost 15 million ounces of reserve, a little over $60 an ounce. That is very good value. I will now hand over to Gillian to cover the financials.

Gillian Doran (CFO)

Thank you, Alberto. In 2024, the gold price exhibited a significant rise, with the average gold price increasing 24% higher than the year prior and averaging at $2,394 an ounce. Brent crude and WTI prices remained relatively stable throughout 2024, trading within a more predictable range than the previous year. US CPI decreased to 2.9%, down from 3.4% in 2023, highlighting a steady moderation in inflation.

Argentina saw a sharp reduction in inflation, dropping to 118% from 210%, while Brazil maintained stability at approximately 4.8%, underscoring broader global progress in managing inflationary pressures. Our realized inflation rate, which represents CPI changes in the jurisdictions that we operate, improved from 8.4% in 2023 to 6.6% in 2024, demonstrating a positive trend towards price stability. As Alberto highlighted, the 2024 financial performance reflects disciplined execution, operational excellence, and a commitment to delivering sustainable shareholder value. Starting with the headline numbers, Adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled, reaching over $2.7 billion, up 95% year-on-year, and demonstrating improved operational efficiencies and cost discipline. Solid cost leadership helped us to ensure that higher revenues were reflected in stronger earnings and cash flows. Basic earnings increased to $1 billion, a sharp turnaround from the $235 million loss recorded in 2023.

Higher revenues, cost containment, reduced losses from asset derecognition, and restructuring costs in 2023 were not repeated in 2024. Net cash inflow from operating activities more than doubled, rising 103% to nearly $2 billion from $971 million in 2023. This increase was supported by improved business fundamentals, a continued operational turnaround in Brazil, and a recovery from weather-related disruptions in Australia. As a result, free cash flow for 2024 soared to $942 million, representing a nine-fold increase year-on-year after accounting for capital expenditure and loan repayments from Kibali. Adjusted net debt declined by 55% from December 2023, with the adjusted net debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio improving to 0.2 times, the lowest level in over a decade, underscoring the company's strong financial position and enhanced flexibility for future growth.

Our non-managed JV had a difficult year in terms of production and cash costs, and I think it's worth just highlighting the primary metrics from our managed operations. Production at managed operations rose by 2% to 2.352 million ounces, up from 2.301 million ounces in 2023. This growth was underpinned by a strong year-on-year improvement at Cuiabá, Cerro Vanguardia, Siguiri, Sunrise Dam, and Tropicana, partially offset by lower production at Iduapriem and Serra Grande. We also included Sukari from the end of November. The company realized overall year-on-year uplifts in milled tons and underground recovered grade on the back of continued reinvestment in improvement initiatives. Total cash costs for managed operations increased by a mere 2%, despite a realized inflation of around 7%. Total AISC from managed operations increased by 2%, reflecting the company's ongoing focus on efficiency and operational discipline.

Looking at our full-year total cash cost performance, our firm commitment in moving down the cost curve is evident. In 2024, total cash costs rose by 4% to $1,157 per ounce from $1,115 per ounce in 2023, while managed operations saw only a 2% increase to $1,187 an ounce, reflecting efficiency gains, higher grades, and stronger leadership. Total cash costs for the group at $1,157 per ounce for 2024 were within the guided range. Total cash costs from our managed operations of $1,187 per ounce were also well within the guidance range, reflecting the reliability we have brought to the business despite headwind pressures. As usual, when looking at the graph, we have isolated the non-controllable portion of our costs. These industry-wide macroeconomic factors increased the group's total cost by 5%, or $56 an ounce.

A higher inflationary increase and gold price-related royalty increase were partly offset by exchange rate movements in the jurisdictions that we operate. When we normalize for one-off events in 2024, it's the non-recurrence of the CIL tank collapse in Siguiri and the Tropicana heavy rainfalls from the first half. What's left over is our controllable spend based primarily on volumes, grades, and absolute cost performance. This consistent and deliberate focus on the things that we can control has allowed us to optimize opportunities to minimize cost growth. Controllable costs from our managed operations reduced by $20 an ounce, and this was driven by better productivity in our mines, better grades through the various improvement initiatives, and absolute lower cost in open-pit mining. Despite industry-wide cost pressures and macroeconomic factors contributing to approximately 5%, our group's AISC increased by a modest 4%.

This decline in real terms highlights our steadfast commitment to operational excellence, cost discipline, effective capital management, and positions us to sustain efficiencies and deliver strong performance. As Alberto has highlighted, we have an obsession with ensuring the increases in gold price flow through to our bottom line, and this is best evidenced in this chart. Free cash flow of $942 million in 2024, a substantial increase from the $109 million in 2023, highlighting effective cost management, capital discipline, and successful capture of higher gold. Gold price-related gains of $1.1 billion translated into an after-tax free cash flow increase of $833 million. Higher gold sales contributed to an additional $95 million, driven by CVSA, Tropicana, and Siguiri. Operating cost increases were effectively contained below inflation levels, rising by $73 million, primarily due to higher price-related royalties, higher labor costs, and some stores' inventory.

Working capital outflow movement of $162 million in 2024 was made up of two key elements: $78 million in inventory build, reflecting full grade ore replaced on stockpiles and required to deliver the 2025 volumes, and $182 million in trade receivables, primarily due to gold debtors. While our receivable days are constant at approximately two days, higher gold price increased the receivable balance. We've also got increased recoverable tax, rebates, and levies, and this again is linked to the gold price increase. On other payables, relatively flat with a modest reduction of $6 million. We continue to invest in our business to maintain safe, stable operations, and this is reflected in the planned capital expenditure for the year. Company's robust financial position, strong liquidity, and reduced debt levels position it well for the long-term growth, value creation, and the reassessment of its capital allocation policy.

Adjusted net debt decreased to $567 million as of the 31st of December 2024, a substantial reduction from the $1.27 billion at the 31st of December 2023. The adjusted net debt and adjusted EBITDA ratio improved to 0.2 times compared to 0.89 at the end of 2023. The company remains committed to maintaining a flexible balance sheet, with a target adjusted net debt and adjusted EBITDA ratio of one times through the cycle, ensuring financial resilience and stability. Total liquidity stood at approximately $2.6 billion. Cash and cash equivalents totaled approximately $1.4 billion, further reinforcing the company's strong liquidity position. Our capital allocation framework has served us well over a number of years. It was appropriately prudent for a period of time in the company's evolution. It helped us to maintain modest shareholder returns while ensuring balance sheet strength as we recapitalized our portfolio and redeveloped Obuasi.

After a careful review last year, we have now developed a new revised dividend policy. This new policy will continue to keep the health of the assets and the balance sheet in focus while significantly stepping up our shareholder returns. The cornerstone of this policy is our continued ability to generate superior cash flows. The instrument for us to do this remains a combination of operational excellence, the Full Asset Potential program, and active management of working capital. This provides us with the wherewithal to invest the right level of stay-in-business capital to ensure safe, stable operations and to deliver a compelling growth pipeline to ensure we are able to sustainably grow this business well into the future with our multi-decade Tier One deposits in both Nevada and Colombia. We will do this all while maintaining leverage at below one times net debt over EBITDA through the cycle.

Our revised dividend policy is simple. We will pay out 50% of free cash flow with a base annual minimum of $0.50 per share. This means that regardless of the price environment, we will return about $250 million to shareholders every year. This minimum base will be paid quarterly with the final dividend of the year, incorporating the 50% free cash flow metric. Over time, surplus cash flows over and above 50% will be allocated in some form, either through potential share buybacks or supplemental returns. The policy speaks to the health of our portfolio and our confidence in the outlook of our business, even at lower gold prices, and perhaps more importantly, speaks to our desire to offer more competitive returns to our shareholders. Moving to guidance. For 2025, we have enhanced the level of guidance provided, providing regional production, cash cost, and AISC guidance.

For the group, gold production for the portfolio is expected to be between 2.9 and 3.2 million ounces, reflecting the inclusion of Obuasi's ramp-up profile announced last year to Barrick's guidance for Kibali. At the midpoint, we expect production growth of about 18% relative to 2024. This, of course, is predominantly Sukari, with the remaining portfolio expected to grow by around 1.5%. Guidance on costs, as you know, is provided in real terms. Total cash costs for the group are expected to range from $1,125 per ounce to $1,225 per ounce, which at the midpoint is a reduction given where current inflation sits. Our sustaining capital CapEx, with a modest increase, updated to include fleet replacements at Geita, and we've also included sustaining capital for Sukari. Year-on-year AISC is also little changed despite reducing in real terms at the midpoint.

Our gross capital is increasing with a range of $535 million-$585 million. The increase in gross CapEx is due to additional investment in Nevada, additional stripping at Sukari, as well as the diesel grid connection at Sukari and the opening of Block 3 in Siguiri. For 2026 guidance, we are maintaining consistent production, cash costs, and AISC, with our gross capital increasing to support Nevada expansion in line with our projected timelines.

Alberto Calderon (CEO)

Okay. So what are the key priorities for 2025? We've banked some strong operating improvements, but we're far from satisfied. We will continue to find ways to optimize and operate more efficiently. Full Asset Potential is fully embedded and has now shifted from a pure operational optimization program to a way of working. It improved our resilience over the past two years in the face of stiff headwinds.

Obuasi has pivoted successfully and will place tremendous focus on ensuring it continues on its new trajectory. At Sukari, we expect to enhance value through the Full Asset Potential and leveraging our global abilities across procurement, supply chain, and talent. We continue to refine our operating model and remain vigilant to prevent any trend towards entropy. We will continue to look at the shape of our portfolio, always asking the question of whether any asset is worth more inside or outside of AGA. We have a new, more generous dividend policy, and we'll continue to ensure we allocate capital in the most prudent and value-enhancing way. Our world-class exploration team continues to add value through the drill bit across our properties.

We continue to prioritize safety and advance on our decarbonization projects, which are not only NPV positive but reduce our reliance on thermal energy and often complex supply chains to get fuel to remote sites. Our technical team continues to uncover value in Nevada as they work to bring our project to account. So why AngloGold Ashanti? Let's take a step back and see where the business is. Safety first. We have among the lowest injury rates in the global gold sector and are working to reduce the risk further, focusing on major hazards. We have a predictable business that delivers on its commitments. We have an operating model and optimizing process that is now proven to work. The proof of the pudding is in the ability to deliver real cost improvements for three years in a row. That means we're continuing to close the relative gaps with peers.

We have reset Obuasi, ensuring that we recover most of the gold from high-grade areas with a safe and suitable mining method. It also is delivering meaningful cash flow to our business. The Sukari deal is concluded, and the integration is proceeding exactly to plan. It's an excellent, high-quality addition to our portfolio that will improve or has improved already our NPV and free cash flow per share. That is another important step towards increasing the production share of our Tier One assets and provides us the opportunity to realize value from our higher cost, short-life operations. What does that all look like in our financials? The strong gain in free cash flow shows not only the focus on cost management, but also the big improvement in cash conversion that Gillian and her team have been able to deliver.

This has been a core strategic focus area since I joined. The balance sheet is strong and getting stronger with leverage almost zero, no near-term maturities, and strong liquidity. With the prognosis good on our ability to deliver a meaningful cash surplus after funding our capital needs, we've delivered a more generous and competitive dividend policy. So why AngloGold Ashanti? When I joined the business under three years ago, the mission was simple: to safely regain cost competitiveness. At that time, we had jumped to the top of the industry cost curve. Then, in late 2021, with new senior leadership working alongside and empowered operating and with new clear operating model in place, we implemented the full potential program to turn the tide. Today, we can take a step back on how we are tracking against our original goal.

With mid-2021 as the base and adjusting for U.S. CPI, our cash costs are about 5% lower in real terms relative to a 13% average increase of the peer group. Remember that $600 million of Full Asset Potential and the $200 per ounce? Well, that 20% is the $200 per ounce, which is the proof that all of Full Asset Potential, all of the Full Asset Potential improvements have gone straight into the model, into the bottom line. This has allowed us to meet the guidance for a third year in a row, a guidance in production and a guidance in cost. We intend to meet that guidance in 2025 for the fourth year in a row. A bit of a reminder of how we look at guidance. We privilege in our ranges the ability to meet that guidance even with the unforeseen.

In other words, if everything goes perfect in a year as expected, we should expect ourselves to be in the high end of the guidance. But if we are facing a year like in 2024, when you have biblical rains and you have a non-operated JV significantly underperforming and we had the issues of Obuasi, we still expect to meet guidance. And we did. I know that this is probably not typical in the industry. I would think that probably very few, if probably one more that I can think of of the large gold miners have met guidance each one of the last three years. And so we are the exception. We probably prefer to slightly disappoint on the guidance and to never disappoint you on our commitments and our outcomes. With that, we'll take questions.

Stewart Bailey (Chief Corporate Affairs and Sustainability Officer)

Thanks, Alberto. Danae?

Operator (participant)

Thank you very much, Alberto.

Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and then one now. If you decide to withdraw your question, please press star and then two. Again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and then one now. The first question that we have comes from Adrian Hammond of SBG. Please go ahead.

Adrian Hammond (Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, good day, everyone. Alberto and Gillian, I have a few questions for both of you, please. Alberto, firstly on Sukari, you briefly touched on the integration and synergies. Are those cost benefits incorporated into your guidance, or is that something you're still needing to work on? I know you've only had a few months looking at the assets. Perhaps also, could you tell us what you see? What about this extra $140 million you need to strip?

Is that going to translate into some more life extension and production growth, or is that just to keep things steady? And then secondly, I appreciate your explanation on the wide range on the guidance, but you've got a 10% delta. What have you assumed in forecasting that wide range so we can get a better sense of what sort of risks you're thinking about? And then for Gillian, I appreciate the improved dividend policy. And certainly, I'd like to know where you rank now versus your peers in terms of yield. Why exclude, though, Kibali in that calculation? And I appreciate Kibali is equity accounted, but are you forecasting risk there with SX controls and perhaps give us an update on what the rebel insurgency means for Kibali, if any risks are there? And then the working capital outflows were quite significant, $250-odd million.

What should we think about for 2025? Thanks.

Alberto Calderon (CEO)

Thank you, Adrian. We were actually visiting Sukari some days ago, and we couldn't be happier with how everything has gone, including the integration, the quality of the people, the quality of the operation. We didn't have time. What is in the guidance and in our budgets is as things as they are. So we haven't included any upside, probably apart from what we already know, which was the less corporate cost. But there's also some, obviously, redundancies that come in, so I wouldn't bank much. So the short answer is we do expect upside, mainly in 2026, I would think, and 2027. The $140 million are not a surprise again for us. They used to incorporate that into cash costs, and that's why I said the cash costs are going to be lower than last year's.

We believe it is in growth capital because it will only have impacts in 2026 and mainly in 2027. As I said in my comments, we do expect versus 2024 an increase of about 10% from that pre-stripping. And then on the costings, Gillian will help me, but there is obviously a correspondence between production and cash cost. As I said, if things go as expected, we should be somewhere between the middle and the high end of the range and hence in cost between the middle and the high end of the range. If we have another 600% increase in rainfall, then that's when you start coming down.

But what I can tell you is if we go, let's say, in a year's time, we can reconcile to you and say, "This is why we're here." And I repeat, if things go according to plan, we should be in a good state. But our mantra is to keep guidance beyond anything. So that you need to understand that for that to cater for what we don't know, we don't know. We have to put these type of ranges. And we prefer to be like that and then always deliver. I don't know if you want to comment on that production cost, but for anything.

Gillian Doran (CFO)

Okay. Well, thanks, Alberto. Maybe Adrian, I'll address your questions, and then if Alberto, if there's anything additional on the cost guidance, happy to take it.

I think maybe the first thing to start with is to say that Kibali's cash flows are actually included in the dividend policy definition. What we're going to try to do is show cash flows from operations with less CapEx so that you can see it really quite clearly, but we will be including Kibali cash flows in the dividend policy. So sorry for any confusion there. How do we see it? We see the base dividend that I spoke about bringing us in line with the North American peers. If you use today's share price, it's an implied 1.5% yield. And then, of course, that's the base. So we sort of feel that with this dividend policy, we'll position ourselves alongside our North American peers, and we're really happy to be able to do that. On working capital outflows, we've managed what we can really well.

I think Alberto spoke to that on the various elements of cash flow well in the presentation. For working capital specifically, the increase in gold price means you do have an increase in receivables. You also have an increase in tax receivables because taxes are higher or cash taxes were higher, again, because of gold price. What we have got is an increase in inventory build, which is ore inventory, essentially, on stockpiles. It's around $78 million, and we actually need that to deliver the volumes in 2025. So we think it's good working capital. When we look at payables, relatively flat, and as I said, we've done what we can on cash levels as well. How do we see that for 2025? We look at receivable days, and we'll maintain our two receivable days on the balance sheet.

And then working capital will fluctuate to the extent that gold price does. I think that's answered your questions, Adrian.

Adrian Hammond (Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, that's clear. Thank you, Gillian.

Alberto Calderon (CEO)

Insurgency at the DRC.

Gillian Doran (CFO)

Oh, yes.

Stewart Bailey (Chief Corporate Affairs and Sustainability Officer)

Adrian, maybe just to pick up the question on the. Yeah, on the insurgency in the DRC that you mentioned, and the impact on operations is just at the moment. It's a long way away. In the Abu Ghafo area, it's a long way away with no infrastructure, very difficult to get from one point to the other. So no impact on operations, no immediate threat, but it's something that both we and our partners at Barrick are watching very closely. So no issue at the moment.

Adrian Hammond (Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks, Stewart.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. The next question we have comes from Raj of BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Alberto. Good morning, Alberto, Gillian, Stewart, and team.

A few questions. First up, on your inflation, you did highlight the local CPI of 6.6%. Is that what you're seeing for mining inflation as well? And the second question is, Alberto, two years ago, you had commented that sustaining capital spend needs to normalize around that $350-$400 an ounce, which we are seeing is happening. But are you able to maintain that around $350-$400 an ounce, or does the inflation factor increase that level as well? Secondly, with respect to your non-sustaining capital spend, you did highlight the Sukari increase. Can you give some visibility how much is accounted for your Nevada operations in 2025 and 2026? And also, with respect to your reserve pit calculation, has the increased gold price impacting any growth aspirations in terms of bringing any lower grade ore into your mine plan?

And one last question for Gillian on the new dividend policy. Gillian, I do understand that you're comparing it to your North American peers, but there's a broader market in the U.S. that we also need to start thinking about in terms of competing for capital. You did mention that you would look at share buybacks at a later date, but if you look at North America, now that you're a North American-listed company, share buybacks are far outstripped dividends. And why haven't you looked at share buybacks today? I'm thinking about it at a later date if you can give some visibility on that. That's it from me. Thank you.

Alberto Calderon (CEO)

Okay, thanks, Raj. Inflation, yeah, it's average cost inflation of the industry. I think we saw it go up by about 6%. We're expecting it to go up by 5%.

Probably something that I forgot is our guidance, as you see in cash cost, is flat. That sometimes is taken lightly, but that means that we are reducing our real cash cost by 5% again, which is never easy, but that's what we've done in the past years. Sustaining CapEx, if you look at it, it's roughly flat between 2023 and 2024 and 2025. I think it's about $360 per ounce, something like that. So yeah, I think that's probably where it will be. It may go a little bit lower, but not much, but at least it was flat. Yes, the growth did go up. As I said, it went up. In Sukari, it was $140 million from that pre-stripping.

There's another important project that they would have flagged in Sukari that is $40 million on a connection to the grid, but that pays for itself when it's done in a year. It reduces OpEx by about $50 million. That would be in 2027, so that's a no-brainer to do. Nevada, that you asked about, the other big one is Havana. Havana pushback and all of that, it's about $80 million on growth capital. That's another big one for the year. Nevada is about $50 million in 2025. Importantly, in 2026, it goes up to $200 million. And so to about $200 million-$240 million, which is interesting because if you look at our CapEx projections at 2026 and 2025, they are similar, which means that we're basically balancing.

There's some temporary things of growth capital in 2025 that disappear, but they come in, and then Nevada starts going in, as we have always anticipated, at about $240 million in 2026. And then reserve, no changes. It's interesting. We did change our reserve resource prices, but we don't change them for most of our assets. It depends if they're mine-constrained or plant-constrained, and if they are plant-constrained, there's no reason to change them. So we're very selective on that, but no impact on anything of our exploration or anything that we are doing.

Gillian Doran (CFO)

Okay, so thanks, Raj, for the question on dividend policy. I think absolutely we did look at all options and all variables. And I think I just want to clarify what we have communicated today. So the base is bringing us in line with the peers and is very similar to their base.

And then we have the additional complementary 50% of free cash flow or 50% free cash flow dividend policy. For us, it's about really making sure that we continue to maintain credibility. So it's a fundamental shift in the dividend policy from what we have had before. We want to implement it over the next couple of years, and we're always open to other mechanisms to return cash. And as I said, that remaining 50% as it builds, we'll need to take a decision around how we return that to shareholders. But I think the point I just want to leave you with is this is a fundamental shift for AngloGold Ashanti. We feel that share buyback programs are only credible when you actually exercise them. What we are saying is our policy is 50% of free cash flow.

As we continue to build up cash flows, we'll look at other options. But for now, we're really quite happy and comfortable with what we've proposed today.

Stewart Bailey (Chief Corporate Affairs and Sustainability Officer)

Let me just add something on the dividend. I think it's impossible. We did spend a lot of time in putting forward a dividend policy that will be sustainable in time and that can withstand the different sort of volatility in gold price. And so when we were out talking to our investors in the past, about six or nine months, we've been asking to them and says, "What would you?" And we have different investors, as you would know, some in South Africa, some in the Americas.

But there was one big sort of ask that was, "Look, at least have a predictable, not only have a percentage, have a predictable rain or shine." And that's where the $250 million commitment comes in. It is stress tested for it's only binding if the gold price starts going down. And we really believe that with overwhelming volatility, and again, this is very difficult to know, but when we stress that it's at one standard deviation and two standard deviations, you can withstand that policy for several years, and it's a credible one. So that's what we look for: robustness in the downside. In the upside, what is binding, obviously, is the 50%. And at some point, if the gold price continues to where it is, let's say for two years or three years, we'll probably be in a different world again where we keep the policy.

But as we've said in the past, a 50% may become a minimum, and then we have to do something else. But for now, I think that this probably meets the most average of what our shareholders and investors were telling us. And it is obviously a very big increase. Again, passing to pay $450 million is, we believe, a sizable dividend, and we're happy with what we have proposed so far.

Okay, that's good. Thank you for me.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. At this stage, there are no further questions on the conference call. I will now hand over to Stewart Bailey for questions on the webcast. Please go ahead.

Stewart Bailey (Chief Corporate Affairs and Sustainability Officer)

Thanks, Gillian.

First question is for Gillian here that says, "Please give us a breakdown of how we get from FY24 CapEx to FY25 guidance, showing us how much of the increase is related to the inclusion of Sukari and growth CapEx less any offset from asset closure."

Gillian Doran (CFO)

Okay. So I think, look, I'll just kind of give just a sort of a rough guide just to not get too specific. But we spent in sustaining capital $942 million in 2024. And that for us is about safe, stable operations into the future. If you think about that as the envelope, a very modest increase with equipment replacement in Geita, so it's around $35 million. And then Sukari, similar sustaining capital profile for that asset of around $120 million. So that's essentially what they've spent on sustaining capital for the last couple of years.

It also includes some equipment replacements as well. If you look at it per ounce, it's the same. It's flat, basically, year-on-year. On the growth side then, we have a profile there which is really important to maintain safety in tailings. And so if you're looking at the delta, you've got the deferred stripping program, which is linked to the growth in Sukari that Alberto spoke about. You've got Havana pushback in Tropicana, which is around $60 million. And then you've got that $50 million in North Bullfrog that Alberto also spoke about. And sorry, just to clarify, the stripping cost in Sukari is $140 million. So that's kind of how you get from how you get from the sustaining actual and growth actual to the guided, let's say, midpoint for 2025.

Stewart Bailey (Chief Corporate Affairs and Sustainability Officer)

Thanks, Danae. I think there's another question on the line.

Operator (participant)

We have a question from Tanya Jakusconek of Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Tanya Jakusconek (Analyst)

Oh, great. Thank you so much. Good morning, everybody. Good afternoon. Really appreciate you taking my questions. I was circling back, Gillian, on the capital, and I appreciate that we get to about $310 million, the growth capital for 2025, in your guidance range of that $535 million to $585 million. You were mentioning there's a delta. Is the remaining tailings that I should be thinking about to get to that midpoint of, let's say, $550 million from the $310 million? So if you were to look at the spend of $273 million in 2024, I'm saying that's the normal growth profile that we have, which is predominantly tailings. You've got the opening of Block 3 in Siguiri. You've also got grid connection. Oh, sorry, that's not the growth one. So sorry, you've got growth in Siguiri, as I said.

So you want to look at your sort of profile starting at $300 million. Then you add North Bullfrog, you add Havana, and you add this deferred stripping for Sukari, which, again, is linked to their growth profile over the next three years. And it's $140 million.

Gillian Doran (CFO)

Okay. Sorry, that was the question.

Alberto Calderon (CEO)

Before, Tanya, and I'm sorry, and you can go back on this one. We guided in 2024, $425 million for 2025. So we guided on that. So the only difference between the $425 million and the midpoint of $560 million is the Sukari. The rest we have guided. But anyway, just to be clear on that.

Tanya Jakusconek (Analyst)

Can you just remind me what Block 3 in Siguiri is so that I make sure I have that as well?

Alberto Calderon (CEO)

What is what, sorry?

Gillian Doran (CFO)

You mean how much is it?

Tanya Jakusconek (Analyst)

Yeah. How much is Block 3 in Siguiri?

Gillian Doran (CFO)

$45 million capital.

Tanya Jakusconek (Analyst)

Okay. And then when we take the jump to 2026, which the delta of that $240 million for Nevada, I appreciate that as well. Am I still assuming there's continued stripping in Egypt as well? I'm just trying to understand how I move from that additional delta. I can keep that $300 million in normal tailings and spending, but add up the additional $200 million. Is that how I should just think of it? $240 for Nevada?

Gillian Doran (CFO)

Yes, I think so.

Tanya Jakusconek (Analyst)

Okay. So there's nothing more in Egypt that has Sukari that I should be thinking of?

Gillian Doran (CFO)

No, it's okay. You've got it there.

Tanya Jakusconek (Analyst)

Okay. I really, really appreciate that. And then just on the dividend, just coming back and appreciate that 1.5% yield, which is in line with the other peers.

I'm assuming this year that whatever is in excess in free cash flow, you're going to do the top-up with the Q4 dividend. And you will, at this point, still keep going with the dividend. At what point do you start thinking about your value of your shares on a share buyback versus increasing the dividend? I mean, one more tax-effective for investors versus the other. So I'm just trying to understand. You look at it based on what you think your NAV for your company is, and if it's below that, you would prefer the share buyback over the dividend. I'm just trying to understand how you will approach the shares versus the dividend.

Alberto Calderon (CEO)

Okay. Thanks. So look, our net debt gearing right now is 0.2%. And you know that we have some bonds that are only at a very low interest rate, so we can't really pay them.

That will be destroyed value. So if the gold price stays high and at some point we start accumulating more money, we will have to find ways of returning the capital. That will be a good problem to have, but it's not an unlikely problem to have if the gold price stays where it is. And then we will see then. So that's why we frame this as a long-term policy with a commitment of the 250, with a 50% in this year and probably in 25. But if the cash balances start increasing significantly, we'll have to find a way to go above that policy. And again, this is at current gold prices. So yes, we're pretty open to that.

Tanya Jakusconek (Analyst)

Will it be based on deciding one over the other? Would you decide it based on where you think your value is of your shares to your NAV?

Or are you using another metric?

Alberto Calderon (CEO)

That will have to be the case. Yes, it will have to be. There's a, again, long debate on that, probably, Tanya. I wouldn't get into that now because at some point, I think that paying it as a dividend or as a buyback is the same thing. But anyway, we will assess it at the time and see where the value of our is. But my point is that either we go way above the 50 or whatever, at some point when you're no gearing and you're accumulating, we have to find a way to return additional to the shareholders. I'm looking forward to that day with that problem.

Tanya Jakusconek (Analyst)

Oh, absolutely. The Hollywood problem. Great. Thank you so much for taking my questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, at this stage, we have reached the end of our question and answer session.

I will now hand back over to Stewart Bailey. Please go ahead, sir. Great.

Stewart Bailey (Chief Corporate Affairs and Sustainability Officer)

Thanks, Danae. I think that's all for the questions. There aren't any more questions on the line. I'm going to just hand over to Alberto to make some closing remarks.

Alberto Calderon (CEO)

Okay. Thank you again for your questions. I have to probably start by saying we are pleased with the results. As I probably said in my presentation today, I think that what we could control, we controlled very well. And what we couldn't control, we made the best out of it. And through it all, even in the places that we had issues like at Obuasi or at Iduapriem, you look at the free cash flow, and it's quite extraordinary in the second half. And Obuasi had $300 free cash flow per ounce. Even in Iduapriem, it's around $200.

Then you have our sterling performance in CVSA, in Tropicana, in Geita, and in Cuiabá. Those are all in the $800-$500 free cash flow per ounce. So yes, we delivered about $1 billion of free cash flow. As we promised to the market, we have come out with a dividend policy that tries to cater for, let me put, the average of the feedback that we heard during the past nine months. We think it's a compelling dividend policy. As we look into the future, we are quite comfortable with what we have set out for 2025. We hope that we have, again, a bit of a not that many issues like unexpected. You never know. But if we don't, then it'll be a phenomenal year towards, let's say, the high end of the guidance.

But whatever it is, we will keep our commitments. We will keep our cash costs, our all-in sustaining costs below inflation. And that will keep allowing us to have every dollar of gold price, wherever it is that it flows into the bottom line. So I think that is all. Thank you again for your questions and for listening.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that then concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.