Aura Minerals - Q1 2024
May 7, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to first quarter 2024 earnings call. This conference is being recorded, and the replay will be available at the company's website at auraminerals.com/investidores. The presentation will also be available for download. This call is also available in Portuguese. To access, you can press the globe icon on the lower right side of your Zoom screen and then choose to enter the Portuguese room. After that, select Mute Original Audio. Para acessar nossa conferência em português, clique no ícone do globo ao lado inferior direito da sua tela Zoom e selecione a opção Portuguese Room. Ao acessar a nova sala, certifique-se de mutar o áudio original. We would like to inform that all attendees will only be listening the conference during the presentation, and then we will start the question and answer section, when further instructions will be provided.
Before proceeding, we would like to clarify that any statements that may be made during this conference call regarding the company's business prospects, operational and financial projections and goals are the beliefs and assumptions of Aura's executive board and the current information available to the company. These statements may involve risks and uncertainties as they relate to future events, and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors should be aware of events related to the macroeconomic scenario, the industry, and other factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the respective forward-looking statements. Present at this conference, we have Rodrigo Barbosa, President and CEO, and Kleber Cardoso, CFO. Now, I will turn the conference over to Rodrigo Barbosa. You may begin your conference.
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
Well, good morning, all. Bom dia a todos. Buenos dias. We are very proud to be here. Thank you for being here with us to watch the first quarter result of 2024. We are very proud to release the results that we did yesterday for a few main reasons, and then we'll go to the presentation. Number 1, this is the fifth quarter in a row without no lost time injuries in our operations, saying that we are up among the best companies to work related to accidents. And that's. It's interesting to see that normally, and invite investors to see, accidents and safety come together with good production, good cost efficiency, and good results.
Number two, this quarter, we also increased, compared to the first quarter of last year, 28% in production. We increased forty-five percent in terms of EBITDA, and yet not fully including the recent run for the gold prices and copper price. Comparing to the first quarter of last year, our gold price is close to 9.8%, and copper price actually has decreased by 6%. So, if you include fully priced of gold and copper, you would have imagined that our result would have been even higher compared to the first quarter of last year. So Natasha, if we now go to the first slides.
As always, I will do the summary of the results, some main milestones achieved during the quarter, and then Kleber is gonna step in and go more specifics on the results. So again, very proud to have another quarter without any lost time injuries, and that's, I thank all the team and all the leadership within our operations. That is. That comes from a hard work for a long time. It's been years that we've been working enhancing our safety standards, and the results that we have are now at 15 months without lost-time incidents. In terms of production, so we increased production by 28%, reaching 68,000 gold equivalent ounces. Very similar to last quarter of last year, significantly higher compared to first quarter of last year.
That mainly comes from higher and recovery production—recovered production in Minosa, that's now becoming stable. And also Almas, that was not in production first semester last year, now at full production, producing 12,000 ounces for gold during the quarter. So we also continue to pursue a cost efficiency in all operations, the gain of productivity in Minosa, together with also gain in recoveries. That comes from hard work from the team as well to reduce our cash cost on average, although for Almas, for example, we still have some room to continue to decrease.
All-in Sustaining Cash Costs, the results of this cost efficiency and gain of productivity, we All-in Sustaining Cash Costs to $1,287, which is below the guidance, although we believe that we will be within the guidance for the year. So strong production, slightly increase in gold prices, which will come more will be more efficient in the during the second quarter, and low cash costs will significantly increase on our EBITDA. And we should expect this EBITDA to continue to increase as gold and copper price has significantly increased since we finished the last quarter. Another very important milestone, which is Borborema project.
As we built Almas on time, on budget, Borborema is heading towards the same milestones, achieving production at the on the schedule that we believe, which is first quarter next year, and within our budget. We are now 25% advanced in the project. All the land work has already been done. We are now doing starting the civil works and also getting all some of the parts to start building the parts within the plant. We also entered the process to move the road in Borborema, understanding that the current feasibility study and the results, NPV, internal rate of return that we published, are limited only to 814,000 ounces of gold and reserves.
But we can more than double that once we move the road, and the process of moving the road has already been started, and we expect this to be granted the license within 1 year. And then it will take another 2 years to do all the construction on the process. So we believe that we can start increasing our resource, our reserves within this year, but then adding in production only in 3 and 4 years. We also, during the quarter, updated our mineral resources and our mineral reserves, adding 2.4 million ounces of gold equivalent ounces in measured and indicated, and 0.9 in proven and probable, which is a major milestone and a result of the exploration investment that we are doing within our operations, that we're now starting to harvest the first results.
I would remind that, for example, very important milestones that we'll be sharing with the market, Apoena, where we had, and we still have, a shorter life of mine compared to the other operations. We wrapped up this mine in 2016, with three years only life of mine. We already operated six years, and now we increased to five years of life of mine. So we are building life of mining operations as we move forward, in the future.
As a subsequent event, two things: One, we have the buyback program in place, approved by the board and also by the regulator, which we could not start within the blackout period, so we should start with this process after the blackout period are finished, which is right after the results are released, a few days after.
We also, Kleber then will give a little bit more information. As gold price has brushed above our expectations, so we have heavy progress put and calls that will now clear all the need for margin calls in these programs, releasing all the cash within our operations to benefit from the upside in the gold price, which we believe that can continue to appreciate in the near future. Next slide. Again, I already mentioned, very proud on safety standards that we are achieving a very important milestone, unprecedented milestone for Aura, now which is five quarters without any lost time incident.
And two, as we do on a monthly monitoring by independent consultants, we're using the highest procedures and technologies, all our structures, geotechnical structures, are within the standards and very satisfactory level. So we continue to monitor this and continue to enhance all the structures, when needed. Next slide. So I would call for attention from the investors and the analysts on the slides on the left side. On the bars, you have the quarter production. On the line above the bars, you have the last 12 months of production.
As we mentioned, after Q2 and during Q3, we inflected last year, we inflected the curve, after Almas started production and also addressing the loss of productivity in Minosa, we could start increasing the production of last twelve months, and we will continue to do that for the next quarter as well. If you see, we already have three quarters of 60,000-70,000 ounces of production, and the last one comes from 49. So the next quarter, you can easily think that if we manage to do the same production of Q1 2024, we will add additional 20,000 ounces on the last twelve months of production, which will put us on the running rate at 270,000 ounces of gold equivalent ounces of production.
So that's very important because that will come together with a combination of a higher gold prices, higher copper prices, and stability on our cash costs. So when you move then to the right side of the slide, on the two bars on the quarterly production per unit, we see a slightly decrease in Aranzazu. This comes very much in line with our mine sequencing. As I mentioned and already talked to investors and analysts, the nature is not homogeneous. It varies grades and vary characteristics of the ore body. So we knew that this quarter we would have lower, a slightly lower production in Aranzazu, which continues to be significantly stable operation for us.
Two, Apoena, also as we projected, not a significant part of Ernesto high-grade pit anymore, so now we see the production decrease to 15,000-12,000. And Minosa, that's also, we continue, this is the fifth consecutive quarter that we increase in production in Minosa, starting last year with 12,000, 14,000, 16,000, 18,000, now 19,000, now achieving a very stable production in Minosa. Perhaps we'll continue to, but we continue to explore opportunities to also gain efficiency and reduce the costs. In Almas, we produced, we had a, we had a below expected expectation production in the last quarter of last year due to the low productivity from the contractor. We solved that productivity, but we solved it with a higher cost.
But now we achieved the 12,000 ounces of gold on the quarter. We are now focused on decreasing the cash cost of that operation. So we are already in place many initiatives, including making the contractor changing contractor with a more efficient level so that we can now reduce the cost while maintaining the production in ounces. Next slide. So in terms of All-in Sustaining Cash Costs, this is the second quarter that we are reducing All-in Sustaining Cash Costs. That comes from a combination of internal initiatives to reduce costs, but also gaining efficiency mostly in Minosa. This is that's we understand now, we'll continue to work on reducing our All-in Sustaining Cash Costs, but I believe that we are now in a more reasonable levels.
That shows, Aura can control its costs and can, gain efficiency in operations, and we are very much focused on that. The problems we had in the past is because we are very focused reducing our cash costs. We change the contractors, we lose, we lose efficiency, then we work and we gain efficiency, and then we can, recover or even gain in cash costs. While inflation is going up, we've been able to reduce our cash costs. Next slide. In terms of comparing to the guidance, we reiterated our guidance for the year. We had a good result in the first quarter, 68,000 equivalent ounces. We maintain our guidance at 244 and 292.
Of course, with the strong results, if we continue to have a strong result along the year, we should be more to the top level of the guidance in terms of production. In terms of cash costs, we are much within the guidance, slightly above the lower part of the guidance and All-in Sustaining Cash Costs, even below the lowest part of the All-in Sustaining Cash Costs. Although, for the year, we expect to be within the guidance in All-in Sustaining Cash Costs. Of course, if we move our production to the top level of the guidance, then All-in Sustaining Cash Costs could be on the bottom level of the guidance.
In terms of CapEx, although the charts might indicate that we will not achieve the guidance of CapEx for the year, but that's not considering that most of the expenses of Borborema comes during the second semester, where we'll be mounting the parts and finishing the construction of the project. Again, that's I think, with the, highlight the importance of this project of Borborema. On the left side, you'll see pictures that we already did all the land work, started preparing all the ground for, the civil works. Actually, all the base has already been built, and, very much in line with the expectation, 25% achieved.
80% of the CapEx has already either been disbursed or negotiated, and then we don't expect any surprise in terms of CapEx for the project, neither achieving the schedule that we promised to the market, which is to start running ramping up the production by the first quarter of next year. And second, next slide. Very, very, I would highlight to investors that this is a major project for Aura. It's important, it's big, and it has very interesting margins, very interesting returns, even without considering more than doubling the reserves, which is absolutely feasible after we achieve the licensing and moving the road. So we started the feasibility. We published the feasibility study last year before initiating the construction of this project.
812,000 ounces of reserves, only $182 million of NPV, 22 internal rate of return, and 40% leveraged internal rate of return. And that was with the gold price at $1,712. If you use the same study that we published last year and apply the current gold price, that can go even higher, the $2,300, we are talking about increasing NPV by 143%, going closer to NPV of $440 million on this project. Leveraged return for the whole life of mine of 74% per year in US dollars, and then unleveraged, a payback of 2.4 years. And again, I'm considering only 812,000 ounces of reserves in all that study.
If we move the road, we can more than double the result, because the gold is already there, has already been measured, has already been studied, and it's very similar to continuation of the Ore Body. There's no secret. The mine plan has already been designed. It's just a matter of licensing and then accessing this. So I would invite everybody to think what can happen with the NPV of this project if we add more than double of the reserves into the cash flows. Next slide. So, very proud of these results. Now, I'll turn the floor to Kleber, that will talk more about the results, and specifically in details, and then, we come back for the Q&A. Thank you.
Kleber Cardoso (CFO)
Thank you, Rodrigo. Good morning, everyone. So I'm gonna go over the main financials for the quarter. As we can see on the page, the main financial KPIs for this quarter reflects, especially on the net revenues and on the EBITDA, what Rodrigo was presenting on the operational side of the business. If you see our net revenues will also increase by the third quarter in a row now. We are reporting $132 million in net revenues on this quarter, and now we are already exceeding $450 million in the last 12 months in our net revenues.
When it comes to adjusted EBITDA, also, the third increase in a row on this quarter, we're reporting $53 million EBITDA, which comes from a combination of keeping production levels the same that we reported last quarter, more favorable gold prices and lower cash costs, as Rodrigo presented. And it's important to highlight, again, that gold prices on the first quarter, the average gold metal prices in general, they're significantly lower compared to where they were, they are today. Gold prices were the average during the first quarter at $2,070, and copper prices at three, only three dollars and eighty-six cents. Now copper price is up over four four dollars forty cents per pound.
When we look into the net income, the story is different, which is mostly explained by non-cash losses related to the need, following accounting rules, to do a mark-to-market of the outstanding gold derivatives in our books. This is the same we saw in the previous quarter. So, in the fourth quarter, you might remember we incurred a $20 million non-cash losses because gold prices came from below $1,900 by the end of Q3 to above $2,000 by the end of Q4. Now, during the first quarter, gold prices moved as well. We ended the quarter at $2,000, so we recognize another $20 million in non-cash losses.
Which combined in the last two quarters accumulated $40 million, which again, is important to understand that this is not expected to become cash losses in the future. Out of this $40 million, considering current metal prices, we would expect those to translating only about $2.3-$3 million cash losses in the next few years. And then when we come to the cash and net debt, we see that we ended the quarter again with a strong cash position, $214 million at the end of the quarter.
There was a slight increase in our net debt in the quarter to $105 million, which was as expected, mainly because of the investments in the Corcorinha projects and also non-recurring working capital consumption during the quarter, which I'm gonna explain in the next few pages. I think we're good. Yeah. Now on this page, we show the main items that explain what's between the adjusted EBITDA and net income for the quarter. Starting with the EBITDA, what I highlight is out of those $53 million that we reported, we see a good balance among the four business units.
Aranzazu once again was the main contributor to the quarter with reporting EBITDA of $18.5 million. But Minosa, Apoena, and Almas, all of them reported an EBITDA above $10 million each in the quarter. So we see was a balanced quarter, and it was a strong quarter, not only for Aura as a whole, but also for the each of the individual operating business units. Looking at the depreciation and the and amortization, we are recording expenses of $16 million on this quarter. Until last year, we used to have between $12 million and $13 million in amortization expenses every quarter. From this year on, we should see that number increasing. It should be more around the the number we're reporting this quarter.
Basically, because now we have Almas in production, and we are starting to depreciate its fixed assets. The financial expenses is mainly $34 million, is mostly explained by what I said in the previous page. This is related to the non-cash losses related to the gold derivatives. We also had recorded $3 million FX expenses in the quarter due to the appreciation of the Brazilian real. Income tax expenses at $11 million came pretty much as expected, considering the strong results by all business units. And then, some small other expenses bringing our result to a net loss of $90 million, which again, would have been positive, would have been $12 million positive, if we excluded the non-cash losses related to the gold derivatives. The next page.
Then here we bring, as always, a detailed analysis explaining the change in the cash and cash equivalents during the quarter. In the far left side of the page, we see our starting cash position at $237 million at the beginning of the year. In this left side of the page is what we call adjusted free cash flow from, which is the free cash flow generated by the four mines in production, not including the amount we're investing to grow the company. That side of the business generates strong cash, $19 million in the quarter, despite a non-recurring increase in working capital. We consumed $13 million in the quarter.
Part of that is explained, for example, due to the Easter holiday and Good Friday in Mexico, where we couldn't ship our concentrates. So out of those $13 million, a good portion we expect to recover in the next quarters this year. And also, the first quarter is the quarter we pay most of the taxes. We paid $9 million in cash, in taxes, of which half was related to special mining duties in Mexico, where we pay just once a year. So going forward, on one side, we would expect to see the cash flows increasing with more favorable metal prices. We have some one-off cash consumptions in the first quarter that shouldn't repeat in the next few quarters.
Investment for growth, this is the cash we're putting to increase reserves and resources and expand, expand our business. We invested $23 million in the quarter. Most of it, the investments for the Borborema project, $17 million. That trend shows continuing for the rest of the year, even, even increasing the amount we're putting Borborema project for the next few quarters. And then on the right side of the page, we see the financial items. The main item here is the interest paid on debt, which consumed $11 million of our cash in this quarter, which was above our recurring interest payments. Basically, because every month of January, we pay interests for the Almas, the ventures in Brazil.
So in Q2, that number should go somewhat lower than according to more, what we've seen in the last few quarters. With that, we ended the quarter with $214 million in cash and equivalents. Finally, we reported also subsequent events as were anticipated. We negotiated during the month of April with the banks that hold our gold hedging programs. The elimination of what's called the credit support agreements, which is mainly the ability for the banks to call margins. So for us, the banks agreed to exclude that portion of the agreements. Regardless where will the prices go in the future, there will be no margin calls against Aura.
That's so we highlight that as an important accomplishment and shows how we're getting strong in terms of credit with the main financial institutions. With this, we end our presentation. Open to questions. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
We are going to start the Q&A session for investors and analysts. If you wish to ask a question, please press the button, Raise Hand. If your question has already been answered, you can leave the queue by clicking on Put Hand Down. Our first question comes from Edgard Pinto de Souza with Itaú BBA.
Edgard Souza (Associate of Sell Side Equity Research)
Hi, hi, Rodrigo. Hi, Kleber. Congrats for the consistent results. So my first question would be regarding Borborema. It seems that conversations for the road reallocation are advancing. So I would like to understand how long, how should we think about CapEx for this expansion after you move the road? How long it will take to move the road? And after you move, how can we think about the CapEx of this expansion compared with the greenfields that you are doing now? And how long do you think it will take until you start producing in the expansion? This would be great. And then my second question may be regarding your growth projects.
If you could bring any news regarding the investment in Matupá, if you are advancing with the financing of the project, and when do you expect to start up the construction, if it is on track and on budget? And also on your other growth projects, if you have any news on discoveries in Serra da Estrela, for example, it would be great. Thank you very much.
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
Thank you, Edgar. So first, Borborema, we already entered the first conversations to get the license to move the road. We expect to have the license within, I would say, one year. After you have the license, you still have to do the final drawings, engineering, buy the land or expropriate, and then build the road. I think that will take additional two years until you get that finished. Once we get the licensing to move, we already can consider measured and indicated as reserves. Of course, then you need to draw and understand what-- how many ounces going to be out of the pit and so on, but then we will publish-
I will publish another update on the feasibility study, including that ounces. The CapEx to move the road, we don't have the final numbers yet, Edgar, but will not be relevant compared to the CapEx that we have today, will not be meaningful compared to the cash that we generate after that. What we will have to invest then is, we are building the plant for 2,000,000 tons per year. Flexible, as we did with Almas, to increase capacity by 50% or more, as we move the road. So the plant is already being flexible and designed to support the high production, but once you get the license, then you need to invest more to increase production.
'Cause we don't want only to increase the life of mine of Borborema. Once you have this, increase in reserves, we want to increase production. And to increase production, we'll have to invest. And that but we can start doing that after the licensing. So everything that we believe that we can increase production on the year 4, 3 or 4, ahead of the, as we are today. Then, your question about Matupá. Matupá, we are now on the final process of licensing. All the conditions has already been met. We already delivered to the environmental agency. We expect the preliminary license to be issued by June, July. This is when we would, right after the start, make the decision to start the construction of the core project.
So still going very much in line we expected. We continue in the meanwhile, do exploration in Serrinhas, do exploration with X1, and do exploration actually very near mine X1, which we believe can potentially add a new resource and reserves. But yet we have not disclosed, we are consolidating some information so that we can disclose. And then we're also looking alternatives that if the vessels remain, either Almas and Matupá are smaller plants, but the deposits, that many deposits that can feed to the plant. So we are actually looking alternatives to increase new deposits to X1, so that it can also guarantee a longer life of mine for Matupá or also to increase production.
So we are looking alternatives also to bring more, gold from other deposits very close to the, to the mine. And then you asked also about the, the new project to continue to grow. Now, we continue to actively look, M&A. We, we have a list, we know we have targets that we are working. We know what we want. Of course, we also have to combine what you want to what is available, but that's a lot of efforts, within our company, is to look for, new alternatives to continue to grow and pave the way for it to be above 500,000 ounces of gold equivalent production, within the next two or three years.
Edgard Souza (Associate of Sell Side Equity Research)
Okay, thank you, Rodrigo. Just a follow-up on my first question. Do you have any idea of how much CapEx efficiency we will have, given that it is a brownfield project, compared if you would build a new plant with 1.5 million ton capacity, for example, in Borborema? I mean, how much of cost efficient, CapEx efficiency could we think that you will have, given that it's just a plant expansion and not a new project?
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
It's not a new project for Borborema. It's, it's just a brownfield expansion.
Edgard Souza (Associate of Sell Side Equity Research)
Yes.
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
The base is there, all the infrastructure will be there, power lines, water, also some of the buildings is gonna be already built. So it will be... It, it's not an insignificant CapEx. It will be, meaningful, but not compared to what we are, doing now to $280. We should expect to be significantly lower, $288 million. There is a lot of efficiency doing just as this, increase, in the power and plant capacity instead of just building a new plant. It's not gonna be the CapEx of build a new plant for sure, it's gonna be just a brownfield expansion of the current plant.
Edgard Souza (Associate of Sell Side Equity Research)
Okay. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Next question from Guilherme Nippes with XP.
Guilherme Nippes (Equity Research Associate)
Hi, guys. Can you hear me?
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
Loud and clear.
Guilherme Nippes (Equity Research Associate)
Yeah. Okay. Thanks, Rodrigo, Kleber, and Natasha, for the opportunity, and congratulations on the results. So I have two questions here. For EPP, costs were the main highlight in our view, and you already started production at the Lavrinha and Nosde pits. So could you give us any update on the production and costs that you're already seeing in these two new pits? And my second questions is on Almas operations. So, when do you expect the cost reductions to normalize so the company will be on track to deliver the guidance for costs in 2024? So when we could expect the issues faced by the contractor during Q3 and Q4 to impact costs? These are my two questions. Thank you.
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
I will start with the second question, then I'll pass to Kleber to answer the first one. On Almas, so we are right now, as we speak, transitioning a contractor, this month, so we will be as a transitional. We do not expect any significant cost reduction during this quarter, but then for Q3 and Q4, yes, we expect this gain in productivity. We also have, perhaps have some gain in rates and also gain in cost efficiency. So Q3, Q2, probably the same cash cost on Almas for this year. We might even have some slightly lower production because of the transitioning, you'll lose a little bit of productivity, but then setting all the stage to a very good results during Q3 and Q4.
So Kleber, if you want to talk a little bit about Apoena. As you know, you can see Kleber is much taller than I am, so we'll have to play a little bit in the camera.
Kleber Cardoso (CFO)
So, basically, our expectation in for Apoena and the other business units, but it's to deliver our guidance for this increase of cash costs. We know that by the end of last year, in this first quarter, we had some remaining ounces from the Ernesto pit, which is a high-grade material that usually drives to a lower cash cost, so was expected to see some positive impact on this quarter. The new pits, they don't have the same kind of material for the rest of the year, so what you should expect to see until we are in this for us to be within the guidance for the cash costs and the AISC.
Guilherme Nippes (Equity Research Associate)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Please hold while we pull for questions. Our next question comes from Flávio Bica with Siegen Capital.
Flávio Bica (Head of Equity Research)
Hi, people. How are you doing? Thank you for taking my question. I have two questions by my side. First one, is the increases expected in NPV for Borborema related to gold price increase already net from collar hedge co-hedge losses? The second one is about taxation reform. Have you expected some critical changes, or have you done some calculation about that? That's both my questions. Thank you.
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
Yeah. So to Borborema, let's remind that the loss that we had was accounting loss, not cash cost loss. That is because you have to mark-to-market the options, the call that we sold to buy the puts. Because the calls, the strike price are 2,400 and above. As we did the simulation at 2,300 gold price, there's no loss at all, and the gold price up to 2,400, it's fully priced and can be fully absorbed by the NPV in Borborema. After that, for the first years, then we are locked on most of the production to the 2,400. So still have even room to increase gold prices and benefit in terms of returns and the project up to 2,400.
So that's, there's no loss at all up to $2,400 gold price in Borborema. Actually, and if it goes beyond that, it's not that we are losing, it's just that we are not getting the benefit in most of the production of Borborema. We will get the benefit in the other productions. And then the other question was about the tax, the tax referendum. We don't have any information yet to believe that will be a significant impact in our production and our taxes. There might be some, but yet not, we don't see any meaningful changes for taxes within operations in Brazil.
Flávio Bica (Head of Equity Research)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Next question from Ricardo Monegaglia with Safra.
Ricardo Monegaglia (Equity Research Analyst)
Two questions. Can you hear me? Okay. Hi, guys. I have two questions. The first one, on production. What do you think are the main risks to reach the high end of your production guidance for 2024? And maybe if you could share with us, after first Q figures and part of the second Q past us, are you more confident now on reaching the high end of the guidance than you were at the beginning of the year, or at the time that you released the guidance? And my second question is on shares liquidity. If you could give us some color on the latest initiatives to increase the liquidity of our shares would be interesting. Thank you, guys.
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
Thank you, Ricardo. So main risk is not to achieve the guidance is always related to the instability of production that comes from few different reasons. It can come from contractors problems, that means we had a loss of performance at the mine, or severe weather beyond what we project. We already project a heavy rainy seasons and non-rainy season, and rain above the average and rain below the average. We all do that. But if there is a 5% scenario of excess of raining in some of the operations, that might also impact and slow our production. And also, issues with the contractors, although we are ready, all the contracts are in line. And the one that we are changing now in Almas is the one that we operate in Apoena.
We know very much and we know how to work, and actually, the mines in Apoena is more complicated to operate than Almas, so we don't expect a significant loss in productivity. Perhaps during one month it's likely to lose with the transition, and then good quarters in the Q3 and Q4. And you mentioned about where with the start of this quarter, you know, do you expect to be within the guidance and where the guidance, the first quarter came off of what we expected.
So, if you put that in perspective, yes, we believe that we will be within the guidance, but now we are moving towards the high end of the guidance in terms of production and the low end of the guidance in terms of sustaining all-in cash costs. As I mentioned, if you replace the second quarter production to the production that we expect, if we maintain the production of Q1 to Q2, you are adding 20,000 ounces on the last twelve months. So we are adding, if you replace the Q2 with the Q1 production of this year, we are already at 270 and above of production, which put us more to the higher level of the guidance and the lower consequently lower level on the all-in sustaining cash cost and also cash costs.
Ricardo Monegaglia (Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you, Rodrigo. Just one follow-up on the first question. If you could share which operations or which mines do you think there are higher risks of reaching the, maybe the high end of the guidance by mine? So just to understand. And I know the risks of not reaching were very clear, but which operations do you think there is the risk of having operational issues or maybe that you still depend on some factors to improve-
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
Well-
Ricardo Monegaglia (Equity Research Analyst)
like operational efficiency to improve, so you can reach the high end?
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
Let's go mine by mine. Right? Aranzazu has been stable for many quarters in a row, actually years, right? We ramped up this mine in 2019. We increased capacity, and we operated very stable, very much in line since then. Apoena is the mine that we have ups and downs, depending on where you're entering, but it's a known variation. So where that is already putting in perspective in our projection. Almas, probably where we are transitioning in contractor, that I would say that has some risks because a new contractor is coming in, and we need to make sure they will perform according to the expectations. And Honduras, with the fifth improvement in the row in terms of quarter, so very stable, reaching now very good levels of production.
We, that's, that was the last mine that we implemented the Aura 360°, which is the way we make decision to centralize very a lot of connection within the employees and communication. This team has been rebuilt since we changed the general manager, the director of operations, we opened there. They have consolidated a very strong team that we believe will can keep this stability in terms of production for the upcoming one. One, one operations that I would first one, that would pay more, would pay more attention is this transition in contract in Almas. In Apoena, there's always some variability change in one pit to another one, so we need to make sure that we will keep a good stability in that operation as well.
Operator (participant)
Next question from Rabi Nizami with National Bank Financial.
Rabi Nizami (Metals & Mining Equity Research Analyst)
Yeah. I'm gonna ask the team. It's nice to see a strong Q1. I noticed that it's a significant proportion of guidance compared to the last couple of years. So my first question is basically on that. Can you give us some more thoughts on your, your goals to achieve a more steady, more predictable production and costs? And specifically thinking about Apoena, if you can give us some guidance as to how you, how you're thinking about quarterly performance through the year at that mine.
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
Not sure if I understood the question. So we expect to continue to have stability in terms of production and cost, and what is your expectation for this second semester, right?
Rabi Nizami (Metals & Mining Equity Research Analyst)
Yes. Basically, for Apoena, it has a variable production history, and we're looking at your annual guidance, and Q1 looks great. Can you tell us a bit about what factors will affect, you know, Q1 versus Q2, Q3, Q4? Just the ups and downs that will balance out to reach the full year.
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
Yeah. Apoena, it's very much in line of the guidance we gave, initially. First quarter, we still had some high grades, from Ernesto. We don't expect this to happen in the second quarter. Then, Q3, Q4, you will enter Nosde. So we will have some balances within one and other quarter, but yet, very much in line to what we disclosed, in the beginning of the year. Overall, the consolidated basis that we expect Q2 to be, to be very similar, slightly below, slightly above, Q1, not significant changes. And hopefully, as we've seen in Aura, during the last three years, but not with that, latent change, but we should expect some improvements in Q3 and Q4 in terms of production.
So, that's why we are already running rate at the 270,000 ounces. If we replace Q2 of last year to the Q1 of this year, and then we can go 270 and above in terms of production. But yeah, we are in the beginning of the year, as you mentioned... things change, weather changes, so we are very conservative in maintaining the same guidance that we gave on the early, early this year.
Rabi Nizami (Metals & Mining Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks, Rodrigo. Okay, is it given that Ernesto is exhausted and it looks like some of the stockpile FX have also been lessened, can we expect longer-term grades to be closer to reserves? Or, rather to ask a simpler question, will stockpiles continue to be a significant portion of the feed this year?
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
It could. Yes, it can be stockpile, but the grades, we should expect us returning to what the company was producing before Ernesto. At the same time, also strip ratio, that net was high, and now also strip ratio returning to the levels we had two or three years ago, when before we started going to Ernesto. So yeah, reduction in grades, reduction in strip ratio, one thing partially offset the other, but we should see, as we get to the guidance, we are already producing in around 60,000-65,000 ounces of gold. We should not see that in the near term again. It goes back to the level that we projected earlier this year.
Rabi Nizami (Metals & Mining Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks, Rodrigo. And if I may ask another one, on the gold, the hedges and the credit support agreement that you've resolved recently, can you give us some background on... Was this agreement tied solely to the Borborema collars, or was it based on overall credit thresholds for Aura overall?
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
Overall. 100% of our-
Rabi Nizami (Metals & Mining Equity Research Analyst)
That's it.
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
Yeah, 100% of the, our hedge program involves does not have any more need for margin calls.
Rabi Nizami (Metals & Mining Equity Research Analyst)
I see. This change has no implication towards future debt capacity or any other covenants. Is that fair?
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
No change.
Rabi Nizami (Metals & Mining Equity Research Analyst)
No. Perfect. Okay. Thank you very much. And, on, on the hedges, could you give us a little bit of color on, in the next 12 months, something, some sense of what the distribution of the hedge balances is in terms of the, the ceilings and the amounts that are applicable in the next 12 months? And, yeah.
Kleber Cardoso (CFO)
Yeah. So most of our hedges are related to either the Almas program or the Borborema program. In our financials, we split the two programs. So for Almas, we should see all the collars; they are already expiring on a monthly basis. All collars should expire by the middle of 2025, by June 2025, and in July 2025, we start to having the maturity of the Borborema gold hedges, which is gonna mature between the middle of 2025, in June 2028. So it's gonna be three years. For Borborema and Almas, we hedge at 80% of the projected production. Borborema has just one strike price for the ceiling is $2,400.
And for Almas, which is expiring, it's gonna expire for the next 12 months, the average ceiling prices are about $2,450, ranging from $2,300-$2,800. Most, but, but I would say most by, by now, by far, most of the program are, are, are for the Borborema hedges, which starts maturing by the middle of 2025 until 2028, and all of them have a strike price of $2,400.
Rabi Nizami (Metals & Mining Equity Research Analyst)
Perfect. Thank you very much for the time. We appreciate it.
Operator (participant)
Next question from Stephen Sanga with Arlo Investments.
Stephen Sanga (Equity Research Analyst)
Can you hear me?
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
Yes. Now, yes.
Stephen Sanga (Equity Research Analyst)
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Thank you. Yeah, I'm a longtime shareholder, so a couple of questions. You've been doing a great job. First thing, it's a TSX, you're not getting much value for what the company has done. And have you thought of moving more into an international exchange, like the Chicago Board Exchange, where it's more on seven exchanges and you get more reflection of value? The TSX, I find, is, you know, there's some shorting this, and it's very liquid, and the share price doesn't reflect what you've value you have. So it's my, it's my first question.
My second question is, I'm a longtime shareholder, so with Rio Novo, the Almas pit mine is quite large, and the pile pit that we never could drill originally, way down the bottom, the pile pit could expand the mine life, the mine that, you know, the extension of that and significant resources for Almas. My third question and last question is, you're becoming a mid-tier producer here. Do you think, you know, chances are a major might buy you out? Thank you for your time.
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
Thank you, Stephen. Thank you for being a shareholder for a long time. So your question first about the liquidity and TSX. Yes, I think we feel the pain of not having a stronger liquidity in TSX. That comes off a combination that we are a new story. Aura was not a very successful story in the past in TSX, so there's still some legacy of that image. And also, we've been able to raise capital in Brazil and outside Brazil. Mexico, gold is significantly cheaper to any country that's raising capital in Canada. So we are not using Canada debt and equity capital markets because we've been able to find cheaper. Now, we are raising capital at $ +8, $ +7.5, for 3, 4, 5 years more.
The term, while many companies in our size are above the two-digit levels. And also in equity capital market, we don't have to use, and we did an IPO in Brazil of CAD 200 million, while in Canada, TSX, people were celebrating CAD 30 million-CAD 50 million of issues. So, we've been able to find cheaper capital in other sources, and that's part of why we don't get a lot of traction also in Canadian market. Having that said, we implemented several initiatives to increase liquidity in Canada, including more increasing investments in investor relations. Yet, I would say that it's the result is below what we expected, so we are obliged, yes, to consider other alternatives of listing.
Aura, it's a company that will have a very strong cash flows, and growth, and dividend story, right? And not many companies, if any, in this sector, can show the growth that we are having, while we can continue to pay dividend and be under-leveraged. And Canadian investors, in general, they are more towards the exploration and the new, a new acquisition, or a new hole that you're gonna drill and increase resource and reserve. So, perhaps our story fits better in United States or Europe, as you already could mention. Then you asked about Almas, right? That's the reason why we are not doing a significant investment exploration to increase the life of mine at the current pit. And then you are completely right, the pit is completely open.
We know that if we drill more down deep or on the side, we can increase reserves very easily. Although we already have 15 years life, or 16 years life of mining in Almas. We don't need to expand the life of mining in Almas. So our effort is concentrated on exploration in areas that we can then feed, increase the feed to the plant, right? You don't increase the feed to the plant if you increase the reserves on the down deep, but we can increase the feed to the plant if you do the exploration satellites, satellite deposits, which is we have been doing, and we've been having a very interesting results.
Stephen Sanga (Equity Research Analyst)
Well, thank you, and no, thank you for that question. That makes sense. I know Veracruz around, there's a lot of deposits you could bring in there. Anything for that Tolda Fria Colombia project? Is that just on hold, or is that just an asset we will hold long-term? And thank you for your time.
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
Well, we are doing very basic exploration, in Tolda Fria, to see if we can expand the resources and reserves. And also, we still have some permitting license that needs to be renewed, that is being discussed with the local and federal government. So that's, that's more, that we don't talk about it. I think it's more long shot. Now, we continue to monitor, we continue to work there, but it's a longer shot. I think, we can, easily put, and we'll put Borborema in production next year. We can easily put Matupá production also, and start construction very soon. Exploration in Serrinhas, that was questioned before, is being very interesting, and we are building and putting the numbers together so that we can, share with the market.
So we have other focus in the company right now, and pending this licensing process to finish in Colombia, so that we can then gradually we start increasing investments there.
Stephen Sanga (Equity Research Analyst)
All right. Thank, thank you for your response.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Román Rossi with Canaccord Genuity.
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
The time, so we might have room for one or two questions more.
Operator (participant)
Perfect. We have a couple of questions from Román. The first one is: You've mentioned lower costs at Almas, thanks to some initiatives. Could you give us some color on what initiatives, and in this cost reduction will be sustained over time?
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
On Almas, the main initiatives is to change the contractor, because this contractor did not perform according to expectation during last quarter of last year when we reached the hard rock. So then we lose productivity. We could fix the production by putting more equipments and investing more so that they to offset their inefficiency. So now we are changing the contractor so that we don't need to put all this new equipment and invest in for them to be efficient. If you apply the efficiency they have in Apoena to Almas in action, it's even easier to operate. Now, we can easily understand that we can bring that cash cost down significantly more towards the Q3 and Q4 of this year. There was a second question, was-
Operator (participant)
Yes, there is. We have three other questions. The second is: Increase in OpEx in Aranzazu beyond the appreciation in the Mexican peso and lower copper prices. Is there any other factor that push costs higher? The third question is: Ore mill and gold recovery are slightly behind the technical report in Almas. What are you expecting going forward? And the fourth question: Looking at your ca-
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
Just wait, because I won't remember. Let's go-
Operator (participant)
Okay.
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
Let's go for, for time.
Operator (participant)
Let's do the... Okay, sure.
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
So the first one was Aranzazu. Yeah. I'll back towards the plan. Yeah, so, so Aranzazu.
Kleber Cardoso (CFO)
Also, we did expect some increase in cash costs and all-in this year compared to last year. That has been reflecting our guidance and our expectation is to deliver the guidance. There is two macroeconomic factors, and the first one is that Román indicated the effects. But also when you're looking gold equivalents, there is a conversion. Gold prices move it faster into one than copper. Then when you do the conversion, it seems the cash cost was higher, but it's just a matter of conversion. Though, then ideally it's better to do the comparison on constant metal prices.
It's important to remember that in our runs as of for this year, as a whole, we expect owing to increase compared to last year, basically because there are some important agreements that we are renegotiating this year that didn't had all the inflation impact in the last two, three years because there were long-term agreements with fixed prices. It's natural when we renew, we do see some impacts. So that's gonna mostly explain together with stronger Mexican pesos and in the metal prices this increase in cash cost in our this year compared to the previous one.
Operator (participant)
Our third question is, ore mill and gold recovery are slightly behind the technical report in Almas. What are you expecting going forward?
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
We expect production and recovery to be very much in line to the feasibility study. This change comes more from mine sequencing that we lost the productivity from the end of last year, and so we expect the grades and also recoveries to be very much in line. We don't have a major deviation from the feasibility study. It's more related to the mine sequencing.
Operator (participant)
Fourth and last question: looking at your CapEx guidance, it seems you have accelerate in the coming quarters. What expansion CapEx are you expecting in the coming quarters?
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
We expect CapEx to be very much in line within the guidance. As I mentioned, we are now ramping up the speed in Borborema. First, we do the land works, which is the low cost. So now we should see a gradual increase and more latent increase in Q3 and Q4, this year in terms of CapEx. So most of the CapEx for Borborema is disbursed and invested during the second semester of this year.
Operator (participant)
Okay, thank you. The question and answer section is over. We would like to hand the floor back to Mr. Rodrigo Barbosa for the company's final remarks.
Rodrigo Barbosa (CEO)
Thank you all for being here with us. The Q1 was very strong result, but I would invite the analyst and invite the, the investors to look ahead to see what is gonna be this company with a combination of putting Almas in full production for the whole year, putting a lower cash cost, and higher gold price, right? The first quarter is just a sign what we can do during the year. The first quarter, again, we did perform a gold price was $2,070. We are now running at $2,300. Imagine, continue to grow with this gold price. Now, in next year, we will continue to grow. That doesn't stop this year. This year, we already increased 28% in terms of production.
The year is already moving to 207,000 ounces of production or above, as we calculated, together here. And next year, another project that's meaningful for all. It's close to 90,000 ounces of yearly gold production in the first four years that we'll start ramping up Q1 next year. And a mine that is not only big, but also has a lower cash cost compared to ourselves. So we should continue to grow during this year, high gold prices, spot controlled, and next year, putting online a project that has 90,000 ounces of production of a lower cash cost compared to where we are right now.
So next year, you can expect at least, if you compare 90,000 ounces to 270,000 on average that we might be doing this year, it's an additional 30% increase in terms of production, combined with the higher gold prices and lower cash costs. And we will do all of that again while we will continue, and we maintain our, our guidance in terms of dividends, our policy, 20% of miner's recurring CapEx, and we can continue to pay dividends, maintain the low leverage, and build the projects. So thank you all, and we'll see you on the next quarter.
Operator (participant)
Aura's conference is now closed. We thank you for your participation and wish you a nice day.