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Golden Minerals Co (AUMN)·Q2 2023 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Revenue was $4.973M, down 16% year over year and up 18% sequentially; net loss narrowed to $1.488M (EPS $(0.21)) vs $(2.813)M (EPS $(0.42)) in Q2 2022 and $(3.266)M (EPS $(0.02)) in Q1 2023 .
  • Operations at Rodeo wound down (mining ended in June); management shifted focus to restarting Velardeña on improved concentrate terms, contingent on financing; Rodeo delivered a modest operating margin while Velardeña concentrate sales provided the bulk of net operating margin .
  • Liquidity is the central risk: cash was $3.393M at quarter-end, current liabilities $5.389M, and management warned that without near‑term capital the company “will be forced to liquidate” potentially before Q4 2023; financing needs total ~$3–$6M to bridge restart and corporate costs .
  • Corporate actions: a 1‑for‑25 reverse stock split took effect June 9; the company raised ~$2.1M gross via registered direct + private placement and ~$1.8M net via ATM during H1 2023; NYSE American accepted a compliance plan for the $6M equity requirement .
  • No Q2 2023 earnings call transcript was available; narrative is drawn from the 8‑K press release, production update, and 10‑Q .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Velardeña concentrate sales began and contributed $1.2M of revenue in Q2, with an estimated $1.1M net operating margin under improved offtake terms; this supports the planned restart without a BIOX plant .
  • Rodeo delivered a positive operating margin of ~$0.2M in Q2 even as mining concluded, aided by slag sales and processing of stockpiles .
  • Sequential improvement in loss from operations: Q2 operating loss of $(1.619)M vs $(3.235)M in Q1, reflecting lower exploration and COGS .
  • Management quote: “We intend to restart mining operations at Velardeña Properties, pending sufficient financing… Velardeña… last operated in late 2015” .

What Went Wrong

  • Liquidity and going-concern risk escalated: cash fell to $3.393M and management warned of potential liquidation absent near-term capital; forecasted non-COGS cash needs are ~$7.6M for the next 12 months .
  • Rodeo grades declined as the mine ended, reducing doré revenue ($3.5M doré in Q2 vs $5.9M in Q2 2022); payable gold ounces sold fell sharply, pressuring revenue .
  • Compliance and legal overhangs: NYSE American equity deficiency (plan under review) and the Unifin lawsuit in Mexico (accounts frozen for ~$153K, potential exposure claimed up to $12.5M) .

Financial Results

Revenue, EPS, and Profitability vs prior periods and estimates

MetricQ2 2022Q1 2023Q2 2023
Revenue ($USD Millions)$5.926 $4.217 $4.973
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(2.813) $(3.266) $(1.488)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.42) $(0.02) $(0.21)
Loss from Operations ($USD Millions)$(2.954) $(3.235) $(1.619)
Cost of Metals Sold ($USD Millions)$4.639 $4.046 $3.859
Net Operating Margin – Rodeo ($USD Millions)$0.2 $0.2
Net Operating Margin – Velardeña Concentrates ($USD Millions)$1.1

Notes:

  • No Wall Street consensus EPS/revenue estimates available via S&P Global for Q2 2023; comparisons to estimates are unavailable.

Segment view (company reporting basis)

Segment (Three months ended)Revenue ($USD M)Cost Applicable to Sales ($USD M)Depreciation ($USD M)Exploration/Admin Expense ($USD M)Pre-tax (loss) ($USD M)
Mexico Operations (Q2 2023)$4.973 $3.832 $0.129 $0.978 $(0.029)
Corporate, Exploration & Other (Q2 2023)$0.000 $0.000 $0.004 $1.612 $1.568

KPIs (Operations)

KPIQ1 2023Q2 2023
Tonnes processed (Rodeo)54,272 50,787
Payable gold produced (oz)2,081 1,828
Payable silver produced (oz)11,535 7,742
Gold sold in doré (oz)2,112 1,726
Silver sold in doré (oz)11,369 7,745
Avg realized gold price ($/oz)$1,891.24 $1,976.45
Avg realized silver price ($/oz)$22.60 $24.34
Concentrates sold (Velardeña)656t pyrite, 118t silver‑lead, 63t zinc

Balance sheet highlights:

  • Cash & equivalents: $3.393M (June 30) ; Current liabilities: $5.389M ; Short‑term investments: $0.011M .
  • Zero debt reported .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Rodeo operating marginQ3 2023Positive margins through Q2 2023 Range between $0 and $(0.5)M Lowered
Velardeña restart timingH2 2023Evaluating restart as soon as Q3 2023 Plan to restart in Q3 2023, subject to financing Maintained timeline; added financing dependency
12‑month non‑COGS cash needsNext 12 months~$7.6M (to Mar 31, 2024) ~$7.6M (to Jun 30, 2024) Maintained
Financing needed for Velardeña restartNext 12 monthsNot quantified in Q1 10‑Q~$2–$3M to restart; plus ~$1–$3M for corporate/G&A bridge New explicit amounts
Liquidity outlookNext 1–2 quartersCash depletion near end of Q2 absent financing Cash depletion during Q3 absent financing (liquidation risk) Worsened timeline

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

No Q2 2023 earnings call transcript available; themes synthesized from filings and press releases.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2022 / Q1 2023)Current Period (Q2 2023)Trend
Liquidity / Going ConcernRisk flagged; cash ~$2.0M; potential depletion near end of Q2 without financing Cash $3.393M; potential liquidation during Q3 without financing Deteriorating
Velardeña restartEvaluating restart on improved concentrate terms; BIOX likely not needed Plan to restart in Q3 pending $2–$3M financing; early concentrate sales generated ~$1.2M revenue Advancing (dependent on funding)
Rodeo operationsPositive margins through Q2; grades declining as mine ends Mining concluded; Q3 margins guided to ~breakeven to negative Winding down
Legal (Unifin)Lawsuit; ~$153K accounts frozen; claimed exposure up to $12.5M Settlement discussions ongoing; accounts remain frozen Unresolved
Exchange complianceNot highlightedReverse split executed; NYSE American equity deficiency plan under review Active remediation
Mexico mining lawLaw changes adopted (April 2023) potentially complicating concessions Continues; not expected to impede Velardeña development Neutral to slightly negative

Management Commentary

  • “The Company announced in June that it intends to restart mining operations at its Velardeña Properties, pending obtaining sufficient financing… Velardeña is a silver‑gold underground mine property located in Durango State, Mexico that Golden last operated in late 2015.”
  • “Without additional near‑term capital… the Company will be forced to liquidate its business, potentially before the fourth quarter of 2023.”
  • “Projected operating margins during the third quarter of 2023 at Rodeo are expected to range between zero and negative $0.5 million.”
  • “We are engaged in several discussions for the sale of assets… equity and/or debt financing… streaming or royalty arrangements… [and] monetize some or all of our $2.9 million VAT receivable in Mexico.”

Q&A Highlights

No earnings call transcript available for Q2 2023. Key investor questions addressed via filings:

  • Liquidity runway and plan: Management targets $3–$6M of near‑term capital via asset sales, ATM/equity, or royalty/stream to bridge to Velardeña restart and corporate costs .
  • Velardeña economics without BIOX: Improved concentrate terms underpin restart plan; early sales generated $1.2M revenue in Q2 .
  • Rodeo wind‑down: Q3 margins guided to ~breakeven to modest loss during stockpile processing .
  • Exchange listing: Reverse split completed; NYSE American compliance plan accepted for review .
  • Legal proceedings: Settlement talks with Unifin; ~$153K frozen, potential adverse outcome could affect Velardeña restart .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q2 2023 EPS and revenue were unavailable; therefore, we cannot assess beats/misses vs Wall Street for the quarter. Management did not provide formal revenue/EPS guidance ranges; qualitative guidance focused on operating margins and financing needs .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Liquidity risk is the dominant driver near‑term; absent ~$3–$6M of capital, the company may face liquidation in Q3—position sizing should reflect binary financing outcomes .
  • Velardeña restart is the strategic pivot: improved offtake terms and initial concentrate sales de‑risk processing; funding the restart (~$2–$3M) is the key catalyst for the equity .
  • Rodeo’s wind‑down reduces doré revenue; expect near‑term margin pressure until Velardeña contributes—monitor Q3 Rodeo margin range (zero to $(0.5)M) .
  • Corporate actions (reverse split, ATM, registered direct/private placement) stabilized equity metrics and added cash; continued capital markets access remains critical .
  • Legal and listing overhangs persist (Unifin lawsuit; NYSE equity plan under review); resolution timelines will influence restart and capital access .
  • Mexico mining law changes raise execution complexity but are not expected to impede current Velardeña plans—still a factor to watch for permitting timelines and costs .
  • Trading lens: stock likely to react to financing announcements, Velardeña restart execution, and any update on going‑concern status; downside skew if capital is delayed, upside if restart proceeds on schedule .

Additional Q2 2023 Materials Reviewed

  • Q2 2023 8‑K earnings press release (Exhibit 99.1)
  • Q2 2023 production update (8‑K, July 20)
  • Q2 2023 10‑Q (filed Aug 9)

Prior quarter references for trend:

  • Q1 2023 10‑Q (filed May 10)
  • Q4/FY 2022 production release (Jan 11)