Executive Summary

Record fiscal Q3 revenue of $357.7M (+10% YoY) and gross profit of $45.1M (+22% YoY) on strong avocado volumes; adjusted EPS of $0.26 and adjusted EBITDA of $32.6M highlighted resilient execution across sourcing and distribution .
Wall Street consensus was materially below actuals: revenue $320.4M vs $357.7M, EPS $0.15 vs $0.26, EBITDA $25.0M vs $28.9M; results represent broad-based beats across revenue, EPS, and EBITDA (see Estimates Context)*.
Management guided Q4 industry volumes up ~15% YoY with pricing down ~20–25% vs $1.90/lb last year; exported Peru crop expected at 105–110M lbs (vs 43M last year), with FY25 CapEx maintained at $50–$55M .
Call commentary emphasized supply normalization (Peru/Mexico), European growth (+37% sales), UK facility momentum, and tariffs’ modest cost impact (<1% COGS), framing continued operating consistency into year-end .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Robust avocado volume (+10% YoY to 183.5M lbs) offset lower average price (-5% YoY to $1.74/lb), driving record revenue and stronger gross margin (12.6%, +120 bps YoY) .
International Farming segment rebounded: sales +79% to $49.0M; adjusted EBITDA +163% to $12.1M on higher yields and expanded packing/cooling services .
CEO: “Our commercial team…strategically deliver[ed] fruit into multiple global regions…resulting in supply consistency… and another quarter of strong financial performance,” underscoring vertical integration and working-capital execution ($34M operating cash flow in Q3) .

What Went Wrong

Marketing & Distribution per-unit margins normalized versus last year’s exceptional levels; segment adjusted EBITDA declined to $20.0M from $26.8M YoY .
SG&A rose 19% YoY to $24.1M on variable employee costs and statutory profit sharing tied to stronger farming segment performance .
Pricing headwinds into Q4: management expects average pricing down ~20–25% YoY on higher market volumes; blueberry revenue likely offset by lower ASP despite volume increases .

Financial Results

Quarterly Trend (Q1–Q3 FY2025)

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$334.2	$380.3	$357.7
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$3.9	$3.1	$14.7
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)	$0.05	$0.04	$0.21
Adjusted Net Income ($USD Millions)	$7.1	$8.7	$18.2
Adjusted EPS ($)	$0.10	$0.12	$0.26
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$17.7	$19.1	$32.6
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	$31.5	$28.4	$45.1
Gross Margin (%)	9.4%	7.5%	12.6%
Operating Income ($USD Millions)	$9.3	$6.9	$21.0

YoY Comparison (Q3 FY2024 vs Q3 FY2025)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$324.0	$357.7
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$12.4	$14.7
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)	$0.17	$0.21
Adjusted Net Income ($USD Millions)	$16.7	$18.2
Adjusted EPS ($)	$0.23	$0.26
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$31.5	$32.6
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	$37.0	$45.1
Gross Margin (%)	11.4%	12.6%

Segment Breakdown (Q3 FY2025)

Segment	Net Sales ($USD Millions)	YoY Net Sales	Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	YoY Adj. EBITDA
Marketing & Distribution	$344.1	+$22.8M YoY	$20.0	-$6.8M YoY
International Farming	$49.0 (incl. $39.9M affiliated)	+$21.6M YoY	$12.1	+$7.5M YoY
Blueberries	$4.5	+$2.9M YoY	$0.5	+$0.4M YoY
Total	$357.7	+$33.7M YoY	$32.6	+$1.1M YoY

KPIs

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Avocado Pounds Sold (Millions)	159.9	166.4	183.5
Avg. Avocado Price ($/lb)	$1.75	$2.00	$1.74

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Avocado Industry Volumes (YoY)	Q4 FY2025	N/A	~+15% YoY	New
Avg. Avocado Price ($/lb)	Q4 FY2025	N/A	~20–25% lower vs $1.90/lb in Q4 FY2024	New
Exported Peru Production (AVO-owned)	FY2025	100–110M lbs (Q3 outlook)	105–110M lbs; ~48M sold through by Q3 end	Raised lower bound; progress update
Blueberries	Q4 FY2025	N/A	Volume up; revenue offset by lower ASP	New
Total CapEx	FY2025	$50–$55M	$50–$55M	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)	Current Period (Q3 FY2025)	Trend
Supply normalization & sourcing mix	Q1: Mexico supply challenges; leverage CA/Peru; pricing resilience . Q2: Elevated prices, constrained Mexico supply; proactive programming; mango share gains .	Higher Peruvian yields; improved Mexican supply; optimized multi-origin sourcing driving consistency .	Improving supply; stable execution
Europe/UK & Asia expansion	Q2: UK facility utilization improving; gaining momentum .	Europe sales +37% YoY; UK penetration/utilization; broader Asian reach via Peruvian fruit .	Strengthening international presence
Tariffs	Q2: $1.1M short-lived Mexico tariffs; USMCA exemptions thereafter . Q1: Uncertain tariff environment noted .	Annualized ~$10M direct impact (<1% COGS); ~$5M spent YTD through Q3; competitive position intact .	Manageable headwind
Per-unit margins	Q1/Q2: Lower per-unit avocado margins on higher fruit costs .	M&D per-unit margins normalized vs exceptional prior-year; within historical averages .	Normalization continuing
Blueberries ramp	Q1: +70% volume; lower price; segment EBITDA contribution . Q2: Volume growth; flat EBITDA; larger acreage .	>700 hectares productive; meaningful Q4 ramp; EBITDA +0.4M YoY in Q3 .	Scaling acreage; revenue mix evolving

Management Commentary

CEO Steve Barnard: “Our vertically integrated model…allows Mission to provide category leadership to drive global consumption…we generated $34 million of operating cash flow during the third quarter and expect to build on this in the fourth quarter” .
CFO Bryan Giles: “Adjusted net income…was driven by an increase in operating income, [a] $0.8M reduction in interest expense…and a $0.3M increase in equity method income…Adjusted EBITDA increased 3%…driven primarily by increased avocado production in the international farming segment” .
COO John Pawlowski: “European sales increased 37%…our UK facility gains momentum…we were able to optimize our sourcing mix across multiple countries of origin” .

Q&A Highlights

Tariffs: ~$10M annualized direct impact (<1% COGS); ~$5M incurred through nine months; Q4 impact expected similar to Q3 .
Trade flows: No material re-routing due to tariffs; product placement driven by demand stability across regions .
Blueberries acreage: Productive hectares to slightly >700 in current season; glidepath toward ~1,000 hectares by FY2027–FY2028 .
SG&A variability: >50% of YoY increase tied to variable costs/profit sharing; Q3/Q4 farming segment peak affects run rate .

Estimates Context

Metric	Consensus (S&P Global)	Actual	Surprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$320.35M*	$357.7M	+$37.3M; +11.6%*
EPS (Primary) ($)	$0.145*	$0.26*	+$0.115; +79%*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$25.0M*	$28.9M*	+$3.9M; +16%*

Values marked with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global. Results significantly exceeded consensus across all three metrics, suggesting upward estimate revisions for FY EPS/EBITDA given stronger-than-expected avocado volumes and improved farming yields* .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Volume-led upside: Strong avocado volumes (+10% YoY) and International Farming rebound drove revenue, margin, and adjusted EBITDA beats versus consensus—evidence of Mission’s sourcing advantage .
Margin normalization: Expect M&D margins to remain within historical ranges; upside will be driven more by throughput and farming yields than outsized per-unit pricing .
Q4 setup: Higher industry volumes (~+15% YoY) with lower pricing (–20–25% YoY) should favor Mission’s scale and programming, but mix/pricing will be key to maintaining gross margin .
Cash generation: $34M operating cash flow in Q3 and seasonal working-capital unlock into Q4 support near-term deleveraging and flexibility on capital allocation .
Tariffs: Headwind is modest (<1% COGS) and manageable; competitive position intact, reducing risk of estimate downgrades from trade policy shifts .
International momentum: Europe/UK growth and Asia expansion add diversification and resiliency, supporting medium-term thesis on global category penetration .
CapEx path: FY25 $50–$55M maintained; trajectory of moderating spend through FY2026 positions the company for stronger free cash flow in future periods .

Notes: All company-reported figures and quotes are cited to AVO’s Q3 FY2025 8-K and press releases and the earnings call transcript. Consensus values marked with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global.

Mission Produce, Inc. (AVO)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary