Aircastle LTD (AYR)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Aircastle has not yet reported Q4 2025 results; the investor site lists only Q1 and Q2 2025 releases, with the latest “Q4” related document being FY 2024/Q4 (three months ended February 28, 2025). Q4 2025 (three months ended February 28, 2026) is expected to be reported around April 2026 based on past cadence .
• Trajectory into Q4 shows durable profitability and fleet growth: Q2 2025 revenue $228M and net income $57M, following Q1 2025 revenue $260M and net income $49M; Adjusted EBITDA rose sequentially to $262M from $232M .
• Liquidity remained strong through 2025: $2.6B as of July 1, 2025 (Q1) with 98% unsecured debt; unencumbered fleet NBV reached $8.0B, supporting trading capacity and capital flexibility .
• No formal numerical guidance is provided; management emphasizes profitable fleet growth, gains on sales, and increasing share of new-technology aircraft, which are key narrative drivers for the next print .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Profitable fleet expansion: “We’re continuing to profitably grow our fleet. In the second quarter, we invested a half billion in aircraft acquisitions while earning $57 million in net income.” — CEO Mike Inglese .
• Strong gains on asset sales: Q2 2025 gains on sale $24M; Q1 2025 gains on sale $30M, demonstrating robust secondary market conditions .
• New-technology mix rising: New tech aircraft comprised 50% of fleet NBV by Q2 2025 (from 46% in Q1), improving residual risk and demand profile .

What Went Wrong

• Sequential revenue volatility: Revenue fell from $260M in Q1 2025 to $228M in Q2 2025, likely driven by the cadence of trading, lease amendments, and asset sales timing (management did not provide formal guidance) .
• Competitive acquisition landscape and supply constraints: Management flagged competitive acquisitions and supply shortages extending well into the decade in their investor materials, which can pressure yields and deployment pace .
• Engine and maintenance cycle challenges: Investor presentation notes challenges facing new technology engines extending the utility of current technology fleets, implying continued maintenance and availability risks .

Financial Results

Note: Q4 2025 has not been reported yet; no quantitative results are available on the investor site as of Nov 20, 2025 .

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “We’re continuing to profitably grow our fleet. In the second quarter, we invested a half billion in aircraft acquisitions while earning $57 million in net income.” — Mike Inglese, CEO (Q2 2025 PR) .
• “We successfully acquired 50 aircraft this fiscal year making it our most successful trading year since 2019.” — Mike Inglese (FY 2024/Q4 PR) .
• “We’re seeing continued growth across air traffic markets in 2025, especially in Europe, Latin America and Asia Pacific. Demand for extensions and sales remain strong.” — Mike Inglese (Q1 2025 PR) .

Q&A Highlights

• No publicly available Q4 2025 call transcript; Q1 and Q2 2025 press releases include prepared remarks only, with replay/webcast referenced but no published transcript on the investor site as of Nov 20, 2025 .

Estimates Context

• Wall Street consensus for AYR Q4 2025 is unavailable; S&P Global returned no consensus EPS or revenue estimates for Q4 2025 for this private issuer. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

• With Q4 2025 unreported, Aircastle’s run-rate into year-end shows resilient profitability and strong trading activity; sequential Adjusted EBITDA expansion to $262M in Q2 positions the company well heading into the next print .
• Liquidity and unsecured funding profile (98% unsecured) provide capacity to continue acquisitions and manage fleet transitions amid supply constraints and engine cycle challenges .
• Rising new-technology aircraft mix (50% NBV by Q2) should support demand durability and residual values; monitor how this trend evolves in Q4 reporting .
• Gains on sale remain a recurring earnings lever; track Q4 asset sale cadence and realized gains to gauge distributable cash generation .
• Absence of formal guidance suggests near-term results will be driven by trading and lease dynamics; expect continued narrative focus on disciplined growth and capital efficiency .
• For trading: near-term catalysts will be the eventual Q4 2025 release (expected around April 2026) and any updates on acquisitions, sales gains, and liquidity; lack of consensus estimates implies price moves may be driven by qualitative beats on growth and balance sheet strength rather than numeric guidance beats .