Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• BAER delivered record Q2 2025 revenue of $30.8M, up 136% YoY, with positive net income of $0.3M and Adjusted EBITDA of $10.8M; excluding Spanish Scooper return‑to‑service (RTS) revenue, core operations more than doubled to $25.7M .
• Results were a significant beat vs S&P consensus: revenue $30.8M vs $13.5M*, Adjusted EBITDA $10.8M vs $1.1M*, and diluted EPS of -$0.12 vs -$0.28*; the magnitude of the beat was driven by earlier, broader fleet deployment and record 120‑day task orders for four Super Scoopers .
• Management reiterated full‑year guidance and now expects finishing at the higher end: Adjusted EBITDA $42–$48M on revenue $105–$111M, with continued improvement in operating cash flow; sale‑leaseback proceeds (~$46M) targeted to reduce debt and interest expense .
• Strategic catalysts: a June Executive Order aimed at year‑round wildfire readiness and streamlined procurement, expanding federal budgets for suppression; expanding exclusive‑use contracts, and ongoing integration of sensor data with Ignis to enhance air‑to‑ground situational awareness .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Record quarter with 100% fleet deployment and earliest call‑outs; revenue more than doubled YoY to $30.8M; Adjusted EBITDA surged to $10.8M and net income turned positive .
• Strategic utilization wins: four Super Scoopers secured historic 120‑day task orders, guaranteeing deployment through at least October; management emphasized “year‑round revenue” potential from lengthened wildfire seasons .
• Policy tailwinds: June Executive Order and bipartisan legislative efforts are set to establish year‑round readiness and streamline procurement, supporting aggressive initial attack—“enhancing effectiveness and efficiency of wildland fire management operations” .

Quotes:

• “We continue to expect more year‑round revenue while we focus on maximizing daily availability and flight hours.” — CEO Sam Davis .
• “We expect to end 2025 at the higher end of our guidance range.” — CFO Eric Gerratt .

What Went Wrong

• Profitability to common shareholders still pressured despite positive net income: diluted loss per share was -$0.12, reflecting preferred stock adjustments and capital structure effects .
• Elevated maintenance costs: Q2 cost of revenues rose to $18.7M (maintenance $10.8M), including ~$3.9M tied to Spanish Scooper RTS work; year‑to‑date cost of revenues increased to $35.9M .
• Liquidity drawdown in H1 from seasonal maintenance/training: cash & equivalents fell to $17.0M from $39.3M at year‑end; management expects receivables of $18.3M from early fire season to boost cash in coming months .

Financial Results

Headline Results vs Prior Year and Prior Quarter

Margins and Profitability

Notes: Margins with asterisks are computed from cited revenue and profit figures; EBITDA row reflects non‑GAAP reconciliation tables.

Segment/Revenue Composition (Core vs RTS)

KPIs and Operating Metrics

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• Strategy and utilization: “Record 120‑day task orders…guarantee our utilization this year and ensure our fleet remains dedicated to critical wildfire response efforts.” — CEO Sam Davis .
• Financial outlook: “We expect to end 2025 at the higher end of our guidance range of $42M to $48M of adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $105M to $111M.” — CFO Eric Gerratt .
• Policy catalyst: “Establishment of a national wildland firefighting task force…year‑round readiness requirements…increased budget to detect and suppress fires.” — CEO Sam Davis .
• Capital allocation: “We plan to use the net proceeds of approximately $46M to repay a portion of our outstanding debt…which will lower ongoing interest expense.” — CFO Eric Gerratt .
• Tech integration: “Linking Bridger’s real‑time sensor imagery with the Ignis app creating a seamless data flow from air to ground.” — CEO Sam Davis .

Q&A Highlights

• Q2 call had no analyst Q&A; operator closed the session without questions .
• Guidance and liquidity clarifications were addressed in prepared remarks: trending to the high end of guidance, use of sale‑leaseback proceeds to reduce interest expense, and expected OCF improvement .

Estimates Context

Additional S&P consensus context:

• FY 2025 revenue: $120.8M*; FY 2025 EBITDA: $47.0M*; Target price consensus: $5.25*; Estimates based on a single analyst for Q2 and FY [GetEstimates].
  Values with asterisks are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• BAER posted a decisive beat across revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and EPS versus S&P consensus—driven by earlier, broader fleet deployment and historic 120‑day task orders; watch for sustained utilization into Q3/Q4 as task orders extend through mid‑October .
• Management now expects the high end of FY 2025 guidance; consider estimate revisions upward for FY revenue and EBITDA following the Q2 beat and strong Q3 start commentary .
• Liquidity and interest expense should improve with ~$46M sale‑leaseback proceeds earmarked for debt reduction; monitor subsequent debt repayment and interest run‑rate changes post‑closing (PR confirms transaction) .
• Policy momentum (Executive Order, bipartisan bills) is a secular tailwind for year‑round readiness and faster procurement, favoring BAER’s exclusive‑use and initial‑attack capabilities .
• Technology differentiation (Ignis + live sensor integration) and FF72 program development underpin medium‑term moat and capacity expansion; track milestones on purchase agreement and customer adoption .
• Near‑term trading: stock likely reacts to magnitude of beat and high‑end guidance bias; catalysts include Q3 print (seasonally strongest), confirmation of debt paydown, and additional exclusive‑use wins .
• Medium‑term thesis: operating leverage from higher utilization, diversified revenue (state/DoD/FMS), and policy-led demand growth should support margin expansion and cash generation, with optionality from Spanish Scoopers and FF72 .

Footnotes:

• Values with asterisks are retrieved from S&P Global.