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Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record Q3 2025 performance: Revenue $67.9M (+5% YoY), diluted EPS $0.37, EBITDA $47.7M, Adjusted EBITDA $49.1M; gross margin expansion driven by lower flight ops costs and strong deployment of Super Scoopers and surveillance aircraft .
  • Material beats vs consensus: Revenue beat by ~$19.5M (Q3 est $48.4M*), EBITDA beat by ~$9.0M (Q3 est $37.8M*), EPS beat by $0.05 (Q3 est $0.32*); broad estimate coverage remains thin (only one estimate) *.
  • Guidance raised: FY 2025 revenue increased to $118–$122M (call cited $118–$123M); Adjusted EBITDA maintained at $42–$48M with expectation of higher end; liquidity strengthened via $49.9M sale-leaseback and new $331.5M credit facility enabling fleet expansion .
  • Strategic catalysts: Federal wildfire initiatives (Wildland Fire Service Plan, Fire Ready Nation Act) and proposed 2026 Wildland Fire Service budget of $3.7B position Bridger for year-round demand and contract expansion .
  • Watch Q4 seasonality: Management reiterated typical Q4 maintenance cycle and loss, but expects positive cash flow for the year and year-round readiness to continue supporting demand .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “Record task orders that ran through October…Utilization measured in days on contract is up almost 10% year over year across the fleet,” driving durable revenue mix and readiness .
  • Adjusted EBITDA up to $49.1M (+4% YoY) with improved SG&A and lower interest expense; cash ended Q3 at $55.1M, aided by strong fire activity and receivables conversion .
  • Balance sheet transformation: $49.9M sale-leaseback of Bozeman campus and $331.5M expanded facility providing delayed-draw capacity for fleet expansion and debt consolidation .

What Went Wrong

  • FMS revenue delays tied to federal budgeting uncertainties; pivoting BD to capture small strategic DOD/commercial awards to build non-seasonal revenue streams .
  • Spanish scooper program still consuming maintenance resources; two aircraft airworthy and flying in Portugal, with remaining two expected early 2026—deployment and acquisition timing still uncertain .
  • Q4 seasonality remains a headwind; management anticipates typical Q4 loss despite strong YTD results, implying near-term margin compression and cash usage for winter maintenance .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q3 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($USD Millions)$64.507 $15.646 $30.751 $67.886 $48.400*
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.31 $(0.41) $(0.12) $0.37 $0.32*
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$32.865 $(10.151) $5.527 $39.030 —
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$44.806 $(7.572) $10.246 $47.677 $37.800*
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$46.974 $(5.077) $10.819 $49.075 —
  • Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Q3 2025 beats: Revenue (+$19.5M vs est), EBITDA (+$9.9M vs est), EPS (+$0.05 vs est) *.
  • Drivers: Strong fleet deployment, proactive pre-positioning, task order extensions, and lower flight ops expenses YoY .

Margins vs Prior Periods

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
EBITDA Margin %69.15%*(53.91%)*22.60%*69.52%*
EBIT Margin %51.37%*(66.56%)*9.53%*57.44%*
Net Income Margin %42.39%*(99.31%)*1.00%*50.85%*
  • Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Commentary: Margin expansion in Q3 vs Q3 2024 driven by deployment mix and lower flight ops costs; Q1/Q2 margins reflect seasonality and Spanish scooper return-to-service costs .

Revenue Composition (Q3 YoY)

MetricQ3 2024Q3 2025
Reported Revenue ($USD Millions)$64.507 $67.886
Less: Spanish Scooper Return-to-Service ($USD Millions)$2.1 $2.1
Underlying Operations Revenue ($USD Millions)$62.4 $65.7
FMS Revenue Contribution ($USD Millions)—$2.4

KPIs and Balance Sheet

MetricQ2 2025Q3 2025
Water Dropped (YTD, Millions of Gallons)4.0 7.3
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)$17.036 $55.118
Long-term Debt (Net of Issuance Costs, $USD Millions)$201.015 $200.396

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025$105–$111 $118–$122 Raised
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)FY 2025$42–$48 $42–$48 (expect high end) Maintained (bias up)
Cash from OperationsFY 2025Improvement expected Continued improvement expected Maintained
Financing & LiquidityN/ASale-leaseback planned Q3 $49.9M sale-leaseback closed; $331.5M facility executed Completed, enhanced flexibility
  • Note: Earnings call cited revenue outlook $118–$123M (vs press $118–$122M), reflecting a slightly wider range discussed by management .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Year-round wildfire demandEarliest scooper deployments (Jan–Mar); exclusive-use Kodiak in Montana; two 120-day task orders; all six scoopers deployed together in Alaska Record task orders through October; utilization days +~10% YoY; scooper avg flight hours +~9% YTD Strengthening, more durable utilization
Federal initiatives & budgetExecutive order to restructure wildland system; focus on early aggressive attack; bipartisan reforms Wildland Fire Service Plan, Fire Ready Nation Act; proposed 2026 budget $3.7B; faster response standards Policy tailwind intensifying
Technology/data streamingLinking sensor imagery to Ignis app; pilots across counties/IMTs Live-streamed PC-12 video to DOI on Dragon Bravo fire; plan to embed live data in aviation contracts Adoption and integration accelerating
Spanish scoopers (MAB JV)Two aircraft with airworthiness; potential Europe deployment; remaining two expected late 2025/early 2026 Two flying in Portugal via Avincis; considering acquisition onto balance sheet; remaining two ready early 2026 Execution progressing, ownership optionality
FMS & DOD pipelineInitial contribution; delays due to budgeting; targeting small strategic awards $2.4M Q3 revenue; BD repurposed; recent USAF win; pipeline intact Building, but timing uneven

Management Commentary

  • “2025 has been a defining year…our strong third quarter results and the completion of our debt refinancing…equips us with the opportunity to acquire new aircraft as we pursue new contracts” — CEO Sam Davis .
  • “We now have the financial flexibility to acquire the aircraft needed to support contract expansion…to further drive EBITDA growth and long-term shareholder value” — CEO Sam Davis .
  • “Revenue has already exceeded the top end of our guidance…now expected to be between $118 million and $122 million. We remain on track to end 2025 at the higher end of Adjusted EBITDA guidance” — CFO Eric Gerratt .

Q&A Highlights

  • Free Cash Flow: Management expects FY 2025 FCF around current YTD level (~$14M) or slightly higher, with Q4 seasonality limiting revenue; capital deployment focused on fleet expansion alongside the new facility .
  • Spanish Scoopers Deployment: Optionality between Europe/US; high demand and scarcity provide strategic flexibility; decisions expected over winter months .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 vs Consensus: Revenue $67.9M vs $48.4M* (beat), EPS $0.37 vs $0.32* (beat), EBITDA $47.7M vs $37.8M* (beat) *.
  • FY 2025 Consensus: Revenue ~$120.8M*, EPS $(0.39), EBITDA ~$47.0M; Company’s revenue guidance $118–$122M and Adjusted EBITDA $42–$48M (expect high end) suggest modest upward pressure on revenue estimates and alignment on EBITDA range *.
  • Coverage: Only one estimate noted, limiting breadth and confidence in consensus figures*.
  • Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q3 delivered broad beats on revenue, EBITDA, and EPS vs consensus, driven by high utilization, proactive pre-positioning, and task order extensions—momentum into year-round contracts is building *.
  • Raised FY revenue guidance and maintained Adjusted EBITDA with “high end” bias; call cites a slightly wider range than press, reflecting confidence post-refinancing .
  • Liquidity and growth optionality improved meaningfully via $49.9M sale-leaseback and $331.5M facility, enabling fleet acquisitions to pursue expanding contracts and policy-driven demand .
  • Federal policy tailwinds (Wildland Fire Service Plan, Fire Ready Nation Act, 2026 budget $3.7B) enhance durability of revenue and support trading sentiment toward long-term contract wins .
  • Near-term watch: Q4 maintenance cycle typically depresses results; monitor FCF trajectory and timing of Spanish scooper acquisition/deployment decisions .
  • Medium term: Scaling FMS/DOD pipeline and embedding live data streaming (Ignis) can add non-seasonal revenue streams, diversify mix, and potentially lift margins .
  • Risk checks: Mezzanine equity and stockholders’ deficit remain large; execution on refinancing benefits and disciplined capital deployment will be critical to equity value realization .