Braskem - Q1 2024

Transcript

Speaker 0

Good morning, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Braskem's conference call to discuss the results related to the first quarter of 2024. With us here today, we have Mr. Roberto Bischoff, Braskem's CEO, Mr. Pedro Freitas, Braskem's CFO, and Ms. Rosana Avolio, Investor Relations, Strategic Planning, and Corporate Market Intelligence Director. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded. The presentation will be held in Portuguese, with simultaneous translation into English. You may choose which language to listen to and see the presentation using the buttons Interpretation and View Options, respectively. After Braskem's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. At that time, further instructions will be given. The audio of this event will be available on the investor relations website after it ends.

I would like to remind you that participants will be able to register questions for Braskem, which will be answered after the end of the conference by the IR department. Before proceeding, we would like to clarify that any forward-looking statements that may be made during this conference call regarding Braskem's business prospect, projections, operational, and financial goals, reflect the beliefs and assumptions of the company's management, as well as information currently available to Braskem. Future considerations are no guarantee of performance, as they involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, as they refer to future events and therefore depend on circumstances that may come about occur. Investors and analysts should understand that general conditions, industry conditions, and other driving factors may affect Braskem's future results and may lead to results that differ materially from those expressed in such future conditions.

I will now like to turn the conference over to Rosana Avolio, investor relations, Strategic Planning, and Corporate Market Intelligence Director, to start the presentation. Ms. Avolio, over to you.

Hello, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for participating in Braskem's earnings call. Today, we will present the results for the first quarter of 2024. In slide number three, you can check the agenda, which begins with the company's main highlight for the period presented in the title. In the first quarter of 2024, we observed an increase in the majority of the petrochemical spreads in the international market when compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. This increase is explained by the conjunction effects, such as the winter storm that affected the East Coast of the United States and the conflict in the Red Sea, impacting the international trade and positively impacting the resin prices.

In this scenario of better spreads, added to the company's effort to ensure the resilience and the financial health of the company, the recurring EBITDA in the first quarter of 2024 was $230 million, 9% higher when compared to the previous quarter. Additionally, in line with the depreciation of the Brazilian real against the dollar, the company recorded a loss of approximately $73 million, while the operating cash generation increased by 189%, with it registering $96 million for the period. Also, during the period, Braskem maintained its robust liquidity position with $3.3 billion in cash, and a sufficient amount to cover the debt maturities over the next 69 months. Additionally, Braskem's debt profile remains very long, with an average term of 12 years, with more than 63% of the debt maturing after 2030.

Therefore, the company entered the quarter with a leverage of 8.1x, in line with the fourth quarter of 2023. It's important to highlight that these results were reinforced by Braskem's consistent commitment to financial resilience and financial health. In the quarter, we observed a positive impact of about $38 million in EBITDA and about $166 million in cash generation. Next slide, I will comment on the company's main operational and strategic points. Regarding operational highlights, the Global Accident Frequency Rate increased by 23% when compared to the previous quarter, with a rate of 0.78 events per million hours worked, below the industry average, reflecting the company's ongoing commitment to the safety of its operations. For the first quarter, the utilization rates of almost all the company's petrochemical plants were higher than in previous quarter.

Emphasis on the Green Polyethylene segment, whose utilization rate increased by 36 percentage points, reaching 98%, after a slow frequency, after the normalization of the Ethanol supply, which was impacted in the previous quarter by weather conditions. In the segment, the resumption of operations at the Bahia Petrochemical Complex after a scheduled maintenance shutdown in the fourth quarter of 2023 and better scenario conditions contributed to an increase of 8 percentage points in the ethylene utilization rate, reaching 74% in the quarter. In conclusion. Throughout the first quarter of 2024, Braskem maintained its effort in the implementation of its growth agenda. With an additional avenue, the construction of its main import terminal reached the progress of 62%. The project conclusion remains expected by the end of 2024, with the start of operations for the first quarter of 2025.

Regarding decarbonization, Braskem and Veolia announced another agreement to work together on the research and implementation of high impact solutions for decarbonization at the Triunfo Petrochemical Complex in Rio Grande do Sul. The solutions to be provided by the partnership have the potential for reducing the equivalent of 500,000 tons of CO₂ per year. In recycling, we have advanced the feedstock diversification agenda with the start of bio-attributed and circular polypropylene supply in Europe and United States, made possible through the partnership with Shell Chemicals. Lastly, a new partnership with Lummus Technology was signed to develop an electrification study of the company's cracking furnaces. The expanded use of electricity and multiple materials will allow Braskem to reduce its carbon footprint in the production of ethylene, propylene, and other chemical products. This initiative is part of Braskem's ambition to combat climate change.

Now, let's move on to the next slide. Moving on to the next topic, I will present the operating performance of the company segments, starting with the Brazil segment on slide number seven. The utilization rate of Brazilian petrochemical plants in the first quarter of 2024 was 74%, 8 percentage points higher than that of the fourth quarter of 2023, mainly due to the resumption of operations in Bahia after a temporary shutdown. In the Brazil markets, the volume of resin sales was higher than in the previous quarter by 7%, mainly explained by the higher demand of polyethylene and polypropylene due to the movement of inventory repositioning in the chain. On the other hand, the polarization of sales in the Brazil market reduced exports by 8% in the quarter.

As a result, Braskem's recurring EBITDA in the first quarter of 2024 was $210 million, an increase of 20% compared to the previous quarter, and accounting for 66% of the company's consolidated EBITDA in the quarter. Next slide. In regard to green polyethylene, the utilization rate of green ethylene was 76 percentage points higher when compared to the previous quarter, reaching 98%. The normalization of ethanol supply after the impact of the weather conditions in the south of the country in the last quarter, was the main factor that contributed to this increase. During the period of green, polyethylene green sales decreased by 8%, mainly due to lower demand associated with the Chinese New Year. This event had an effect on the segment, given that historically, Asia represents about 40% of the sales volume of green polyethylene.

Now, we move on to the next slide. The United States and Europe segment. The utilization rate in the last quarter was 76%, a reduction of six percentage points when compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. This increase is mainly explained by an unscheduled shutdown at a plant in the United States, lasting about a month between January and February, with resumption of operations in February. On the other hand, sales volume remaining in line with the previous quarter. In this area, the first quarter of the year, recurring EBITDA was $59 million, 20% lower than that of the fourth quarter of 2023, and represents 22% of the company's consolidated recurring EBITDA in dollars in the quarter. Now, I will discuss the Mexico segment.

In Mexico, the utilization rate for the quarter was 83%, in line with the last quarter of 2023. With regard to sales, the volume was higher by 17%, mainly due to the reposition of polyethylene inventories in the market and the seasonality observed in the previous quarter. Recurring EBITDA in the period was $37 million, 39% higher than the result of the fourth quarter of 2023, representing 12% of the company's consolidated recurring EBITDA in dollar terms in the quarter. Next, starting on slide 11, we'll talk about the company's consolidated financial performance. In the first quarter of 2024, Braskem's recurring EBITDA was $230 million, an increase of 9% compared to the previous quarter. This result was positively impacted by the increase of most spreads in the global petrochemical industry.

In the polyethylene market, the spread with respect to Naphtha was higher by 20%, while the polyethylene spread over ethane was higher by 20%. Conjunctural factors of the period, such as weather conditions in the Gulf Coast of the United States, and the logistics constraints in Panama and in the Red Sea, increased the increase in the prices of resins and spreads in the national market. Sales volume also contributed to the increase in EBITDA, with an increase in sales in the Brazil segment for the main chemicals by 19% and for resin by 7%. Next, the 17% increase in the sales volume also had a positive impact on the consolidated EBITDA.

In addition, the reduction of 6% compared to the quarter budget, including personnel and benefits expenses, as a result of corporate resilience and proper health, additional health initiatives, also contributed positively to the company's recurring EBITDA. Yeah, go on to the next slide. This is the presented and operating cash generation of [audio distortion] in the first quarter of 2024. That helped in presenting free cash of [audio distortion] compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, and 181%, which is mainly explained by the lower disbursements with operational and strategic CapEx by BRL 363 million, by the positive variation of the working capital, higher by BRL 181 million, and the increase of BRL 91 million on the operating EBITDA.

Regarding recurring cash generation, Braskem presented a lower cash consumption by BRL 22 million compared to the fourth quarter 2023, due to higher operating cash generation and definition, and higher interest payments related to the second payments of the debt securities that were issued in the national markets by the company. Considering the disbursement related to Alagoas, cash consumption increased approximately by BRL 129 million in the first quarter year. Next slide, please. Braskem ended the first quarter of 2024, maintaining a very low debt profile, with an average payment term of about 12 years, with 63% of the debts concentrated as of 2030. The company's liquidity line is sufficient to cover its obligations for the next 69 months.

At the end of the quarter, core debt leverage was 8.12x, in line with the quarter of 2023, and with that was approximately $4.3 billion. Regarding rating agencies, in Q1, Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings maintained Braskem's rating as BB+. It's important to note that the company maintains its commitment to maintaining its liquidity position, cost discipline, and continuing to implement measures to reduce its corporate leverage to [audio distortion]. In the quarter, we acted continuously on the work front in Maceió, focusing on the fulfillment of agreements. In this way, I will comment on the main updates of the period, starting with relocation and compensation and social urban measures on the next slide. By 2024, the residential relocation program reached an execution percentage of 99.7%.

As for proposals related to the financial compensation and relocation support program, more than 99.9% of the estimated proposals have already been made, which about 90% have already been accepted, and about 95.7% have already been paid, with an overall percentage rate of 99.9. The total provision within this program so far was BRL 5.8 billion, of which BRL 4.6 billion have already been disbursed, and BRL 1.3 billion in balance at the end of the first quarter of 2024. Regarding the progress of the urban social measures, seven mobility projects are in the physical execution phase, out of a total of 11 projects. Regarding the actions in the vacant areas, the project on the largest local reached a 73.7% of execution.

On the social and urban action plan, 47 actions have already been carried and handed to the signatory authorities of the agreement. Until April, together with the flexible agreements, the financial support program reached about 98.6% of the proposed space, while 14 of the 23 social economic measures provided in the agreement have already been implemented. On this front, BRL 1.7 billion have already been provisioned so far, of which about BRL 600 million have already been dispersed, and BRL 1.3 billion in balance at the end of the first quarter of 2024. Yeah, next slide. Regarding the closure and monitoring of mines, I will present the low current status of the closure plan. The sand filling group has a total of 13 mines, of which five are fully filled and two are in progress.

Six mines were recently included after the conclusion of the monitoring actions and are in activity planning. The natural fill group has a total of six mines, of which five are in full fill confirmation. Cavity 18 is in evaluation phase, with an indication that no sand filling measures will be necessary. In conclusion, of the 16 wells directed to the buffering and the pressurization groups, seven have been pressurized and are being monitored, while nine are in the pressurization confirmation phase. After the pressure check process, any additional measures may be necessary. On this front, BRL 3.5 billion have already been provisioned into March 2024, of which BRL 2.5 billion have already been dispersed, and BRL 1.5 billion are in balance at the end of the quarter. The actions mentioned are estimated to be completed by 2026. Next slide.

In March 2024, the total of provisions related to Alagoas event were around BRL 15.5 billion, of which about BRL 10 billion have already been dispersed, and approximately BRL 1.2 billion have been registered in other obligations to be paid. Additionally, about BRL 500 million is the performance of the present value adjustment. At the end of the first quarter, the provision to balance was BRL 4.9 billion. It's important to highlight that the actions of the environmental plan, according to provisions made, are solid progress and are expected to be completed in 2028. Next slide. Next, we will present the operational and general perspectives for the next quarter, in addition to making some comments on the company's main business in resilience and financial health terms, and also the priorities for the year.

For the second quarter of 2024, the expectation for the utilization rate in the Brazil segment in green ethylene remained in line with the prior quarter, as well as the same volume in accordance with the scheduled shutdown of the Triunfo Petrochemical Complex. In consequence of the significant climate events that we've experienced in the state in the last few days, the impact from this event is still being evaluated. Regarding strategy, the trend, according to external consultants, is to maintain growth for the next quarter. In the United States and Europe segments, the expectation is that utilization rates are also in line with the previous quarter, the shutdown in the United States, offset by an increase in the utilization rate in Europe. In this way, the sector volume also remains stable compared to the previous quarter.

Lastly, in relation to the international spreads, the expectation is an increase for the next quarter, which is driven especially by the reduction in the price of raw material, propane. Finally, in Mexico, the trend for the second quarter is for an increase in production as the expectation of a stable supply of ethane. As a result, increased product availability is expected for the quarter. The spreads in the international market tend to be in line with those recorded in the previous quarter. For the first quarter of 2024, the company continued implementing the corporate initiatives with impact on capital and cash generation, totaling approximately $20 million in the quarter in gains through the strategy, $18 million with the cost reduction added to the company's capital.

Additionally, we captured $109 million through the prioritization of capital initiatives and $27 million with an optimization of working capital added to the cash generation. Additionally, we captured $20 million that were used after the securitization carried out through the bonus agreements, which impacted on the revenues by approximately $8 million during the quarter. In 2024, Braskem made a commitment to six priorities for the year, and during the first quarter of 2024, we had the following advances. In Maceió, all fronts of action showed progress in the quarter, with about BRL 10 billion already dispersed by the close of the quarter, referring to the financial provisions of BRL 15.5 billion.

In relation to the priority of resilience and financial health, sales and distribution expenses decreased by $13 million, and the variation of the working capital quarter was higher by BRL 181 million when compared to the previous quarter. The optimization and strategy of the capital. On to the next slide. In 2024, Braskem made a commitment to six priorities for the year, and during the first quarter of 2024, we had the following advances. In Maceió, all fronts of action showed progress in the quarter, with about BRL 10 billion already dispersed by the close of the quarter, referring to the financial provision of BRL 15.5 billion.

Regarding the priority of resilience and financial health, sales and distribution expenses decreased by $13 million, and the variation in working capital quarter was higher by BRL 181 million when compared to the previous quarter. In the asset operation strategy optimization, the company showed a quick response from the return of the maintenance shutdown in Bahia and from the impacts on ethanol supply in the south in the last quarter, and increased its utilization rate in the segment by 8 percentage points and in green ethylene by 36 percentage points. Additionally, Braskem continues to implement initiatives that aim to reduce the carbon footprint in separation and in partnership with Lummus Technology as utilization and studied the electrification of its cracking furnaces. In the quarter, we also had increased synchronization for the use of products developed from the chemical recycling for food contact applications.

In investments, the company was able to optimize around BRL 363 million and CapEx compared to the previous quarter, as a result of the company's global prioritization strategy, while maintaining the same level of evolution, safety, and reliability. In conclusion, in Mexico, we continued our efforts to complete the construction of ethane terminal, achieving a physical progress of 62%, and this is higher than the stage on December 2018. That's the presentation, progress, and results for the first quarter of 2023. Thank you very much for your attention. We will now begin the Q&A session.

Speaker 1

Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer, answer session. If you have a question, please click the Raise Hand button, or submit your question via the Q&A window. To remove the question from the queue, please quick-click the Lower Hand button or signal the Q&A window. Our first question comes from Luiz Carvalho with UBS. You may proceed, sir.

Speaker 2

Hello, everyone. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. I'd like to start by asking Pedro, as you mentioned in your presentation, we see a spread scenario where perhaps the worst has already been behind us. The levels are, or used to be quite compressed, but now looking into the future, we are starting to see a scenario with slow recovery in the 18-month horizon. And next year, as you mentioned, we expect to see the entrance of the Mexican Fast Track program. This is, this seems like it will, in some way, contribute to improve the company's outlook. Could you please give us a few words about the dynamics you're seeing in terms of the perspective of result, both in recovering the spreads and in the contribution of the, the Mexican facility? That would be great, please.

My second question, and of course, we must ask, it's inevitable. We need to ask about the shareholder situation. We had ADNOC participating in the process. They have left. Apollo, also in the past, also participated and also gave up. Petrobras made some public comments that it could potentially increase its participation on Braskem to then later on, sell them. Could you please help us to understand what the situation is like in terms of what the management has been doing to contribute to this discussion? And are there any discussions, any due diligence processes underway? There was the Kuwait company as well. And also along those lines, if there is a question from Petrobras with regard to that Novonor stake, that 5%, would there be a tag along in that case?

Good morning, everyone. Thank you, Luis, for your questions.

It's a pleasure to talk to everyone here. We recently presented our yearly results. It hasn't been very long since last time we met, but there have been some updates. Rosana presented the main one. But to explore some of these topics that you asked, Luis, specifically with regard to the spreads, what you mentioned is what we see, a slow recovery in the supply and demand scenario. This year, polyethylene is looking to have more demand than, Sorry, more supply than demand, and I think the scenario is going to reverse next year. So what we have seen is slow recovery in our results. April was a month in which spreads improved compared to March, so we have seen a very gradual, very slow recovery, as you mentioned.

But nevertheless, the spreads have been improving over this year, and we expect things to accelerate next year, and also with the polypropylene scenario. And based on that, you asked a more focused question about the Mexico terminal, but I'll expand a little bit. Since the past year, we have been implementing a number of actions and initiatives to improve our results. Some came to maturity last year already. But even those that did have an impact last year, they do end up being reflected in the 12 months of 2024. Many of them didn't have an impact on the 12 months of the year, and this year we forecast that they will have an impact over the 12 months of the year. So part of the impact that we expect comes from those spreads, but also some come from having the full year of the measures in implementation.

That's actually one of the slides in our presentation. When we talk about the financial resiliency and rigidity plan. This year, we expect to see additional EBITDA above and beyond last year, approximately $200 million-$250 million, as a result, solely of these measures. And that adds to our strong cash generation as a result. With regard specifically to the Mexican terminal, we expect that it will be completed by the end of this year and Q1 2025. So of course, we're not going to see an impact on our results for this year. That will come next year, and it'll depend heavily on the volume of deliveries that Pemex makes, because logistics is always going to be less expensive when we buy from the local supplier.

But we will have a drop in the cost of importing from, for Braskem Idesa and importing ethane, and also an improvement to the operation rate. This last quarter, we had something close to 85, and this next quarter, we expect to be closer to 95 or 98 at least, if not 100. Now that with the terminal, we will have improvements to fixed cost and a significant improvement in Mexico. So it's not just about spreads and volume, we also have the result recovery initiatives that we've been implementing. On the sale process efforts, you asked a question that I'll answer first, which is Braskem contribution to discussions. Well, our contribution is in the due diligence processes. We do not take part in discussions.

When we have obligations involved with shareholders, they do notify about critical landmarks and events that are occurring, but what the law sets forth is that if any development persists within an NDA process and there is no leak to the press, then the company is not required to disclose it, not least of which, because any such disclosure could have a negative impact on the negotiations. So our shareholders are not required to notify us of everything that's happening. Now, if there is some kind of a leak or some kind of a press release, then they do need to notify us so that we can keep the whole market up to date. But what I can tell you is that we were notified on Sunday about the ADNOC decision.

We received mail from Novonor, and we immediately reproduced it to the market, the ADNOC decision to not proceed with the process. Novonor also says that it remains engaged in the sale process, and what I can tell you is that where Braskem is involved is there is an ongoing due diligence. So there's an ongoing process involving the exchange of information, or actually the provision of information. It's not really an exchange. And Braskem is providing information. It's making available for, potential interested parties. And if any other interested parties arise, we will continue to support shareholders in their demand for this process. Now, with regard to the question of Petrobras, we don't know what their decision is.

What we do know, what is public information, is that they have a due diligence process, which was, I would say, practically, materially included a while ago, but there's always some kind of an update. It's a process we consider to still be open or pending, the second open process. And every now and then, sporadically, they ask us for some additional information. But Petrobras makes it very clear that their goal with this process, with the process they are evaluating, is with the goal and in the sense of making a decision that they will need to make in the future about the rights that they have, both tag-along rights and the first, the preference for purchase, the right of first refusal. So with regard to anything else, we don't have any additional information.

Now, with regard to your other question, if Petrobras does make a purchase, I must say that our tag-along clause is defined by our articles of incorporation, which exclude acquisition by Petrobras, and as it would for Novonor. So these situations do not encompass the 100% tag-along. So Petrobras makes a purchase, the SA law in Brazil says that tag-along only exists for ordinary shareholders of the—Sorry, it's not the SA law, it's level one in B3, the Brazilian B3 exchange. And that will occur only for the ON, the venture holders.

So there is no tag-along that, as defined by the articles in the case of Petrobras buying, then we do have tag-along from the exchange program, which for us, for our governance, is 80% of the price for ordinary shares. And I'd also like to take the opportunity to say that if Petrobras makes a purchase, this does not encompass a change of control in the bonds and the capital markets participations where we are. All right. Thank you, Pedro. That was very clear. I think Rosana has something else to add.

Speaker 1

Good morning, Luis. Let me turn on my camera. Just a moment. It's one aspect in relation to the first question about spreads. We're talking about global petrochemical, and we have been observing this in the past 18 months, with the spreads of low cycle when compared to the normal cycles and even lower levels. It's important to understand the cash cost curve fundamentals. So we expect a rationalization in the industry, as we have seen this of the way last year or maybe in the beginning of this year, and we saw major capacities, especially in Europe, by major players. So we expect rationalization, as we had seen in previous moments in the industry or in other moments of crisis, when we see this rationalization of industry.

And when we see how consulting firms see this, they have a more conservative way of looking at it, with less capacity. But when we look at the fundamentals about the spreads that we have been seeing, we do not see an important level of rationalization of that the industry sees when we consider the marginal producers, the ones which have higher cost of production, especially in Asia. So we are likely to see a stronger movement in this direction that would provide support to major spreads than what we see by the consultants in general.

Speaker 2

That's very clear. Thank you, Rosana. Thank you, Pedro.

Speaker 1

Our next question comes from Gabriel Barra with Citi. You may proceed, sir.

Speaker 2

Hi, thanks. Thanks for taking my question. I'd like to ask for two follow-ups regarding the first point, and also based on what Rosana mentioned. I'd like to understand how quickly we can forecast to see the return of spreads. For the past year, we've been expecting the return to normal. We had a very difficult year last year, and the start of this year seems to be improving. When we look at companies abroad, they're all returning, performing much better than what we saw last year. So my question is, how quickly this could happen for us? And what are some potential triggers we should pay attention to in the short term to try to see this return coming back and improving the company's results? Two quick follow-ups.

One, could you please give us an update about the PI and what the potential impacts are for the company, and how the timeline is for the negotiation for the CPI inquiry process? And lastly, a quick question: Could you please talk about Triunfo and Rio Grande do Sul and the whole, catastrophe that's happening in Rio Grande do Sul, and how that has impacted the company in that region where you have operations there in Rio Grande do Sul? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Gabriel. I'm going to answer your question related to spreads, and then I'll turn to Pedro for the other answers. Your question is very good, and this is a question that has been asked recurrently, this return of the cycle, considering that the spreads had important improvements. As we have announced, we saw 20% spreads in a better situation for polyethylene or maybe one product or the other. We don't see a very important recovery. I'm going to talk about supply and demand at the global level, and this is associated with the rationalization that I mentioned. First, talking about the global supply and demand, we consider a growing demand. The world continues growing at a slower pace, maybe from what we saw in the past 18 months, but we see a growing demand.

So when we see that we, the PE and PP will grow by 3.5% a year. And then we look at the offer, which is more predictable, considering that those complexes have their own time for construction. When we look at the supply, we see less supply coming in. When we look at polyethylene, when compared to last year, we see that in 2023, we saw some a higher capacity, which was very competitive on ethane base. But when we look at this year, we see Asia coming in with more capacity and with a higher cost of production. So we see a better balance when we look at polyethylene. And as to polypropylene, we see that there is a how the sufficiency estimates by China, but polypropylene is more generalized, since I'm talking about the impact on sales volume for the company.

In terms of supply and demand, we see a very positive trend and a trend of balance, and then I'll talk about rationalization. If we look only at supply and demand, we see that spreads are improving gradually, as Pedro said, quarter by quarter. For the future, we see a direction of normalization of spreads, which is very positive. We talk about rationalization. We see external consulting firms talking more about this and quantifying the spreads. But today, we believe that we should see a rationalization that would be more accelerated, considering the assets of Braskem and their qualities, the cash cost quality and the position at the global level, and the results we have been posting. You said that you saw the recovery of petrochemicals. That is right. The EBITDA of the company has started recovering as well.

But both Braskem and the global petrochemical industries show EBITDAs which are lower than the cycle average in the United States or in Europe, wherever. But we still see the spreads with more impact in the short, medium, and long terms.

Speaker 2

All right, Gabriel. Moving on with the other topics you asked, there was one about the CPI inquiry and the timeline and impact. Braskem has been collaborating with the CPI. We've been providing all information that is requested of us, and we remain available to the authorities, to the senator, to answer with transparency about all our activities in Maceió. We do not control the CPI's timing. We are not aware of the content of the report they're going to produce. Our forecast is based on what was published by the voting process on the 22nd, but that is not a process where we have any control. We cannot define what will happen. This is public information. It was published by the Senate, and the expectation is that on May 22nd, they're going to vote on the report.

So typically, the report is going to be published a few days earlier for it to be read and then voted on, on May 22nd. But we should see some new developments over the coming two to three weeks. But again, this is not a schedule that we have any control over or really any capacity to make any statements with any, with any kind of certainty. With regard to Rio Grande do Sul, I'd like to emphasize a few points that are critical for us. Firstly, the safety of our operations. Over the weekend, we found that as a result of some logistics conditions, the continued operation would become inviable. So actually, it was not just logistics, also the supply of water and the treatment of wastewater at the site. Broadly speaking, the conditions for the operation were all pointing to halting the operation.

We performed a safe halt, which takes one to two days, so we did that over the weekend. So that was the first major focus. The second focus that we have now, that's already been happening for a couple of days, is supporting our employees and staff who were impacted by the tragedy, and also the third-party workers, as well as all residents in the vicinity of our operations. So we've been working by donating hygiene kits, mattresses, to all of these people and communities. We've also been trying, and we created an internal calendar here at Braskem. We have a very strong tradition of volunteer work, and our volunteers really want to support in whatever they can the region in Rio Grande do Sul.

We have an internal donation program, where we donate funds to support people there, and a number of other actions, too. We can go into further detail if you're interested, but I would say that the major focus at the current time is to bring stability to the lives of everyone there, to bring them safety, to bring them to allow them to at least protect their lives, first and foremost, and we want to make their safety very clear and support their safety. Next, the next step will be cleaning. We're already working in that front with our partners and clients. To give you an example, we have a partner that manufactures plastic buckets. We are donating resins for them to produce plastic buckets to be used in the cleaning efforts. Firstly, physical safety, second, cleaning, third, reconstruction.

Then in the future, we'll see what is needed and how Braskem can support efforts in those fronts. But Braskem has been supporting everyone, as we always do in these types of situations, as we always support the population in Rio Grande do Sul, especially those in the cities that are located in the vicinity of our operations. I could, I could go on. There are a number of other initiatives we've been working on to support the population, but let me go back to the crux of your question, which is the impact on our operations. So when we halt our operation, we have approximately 30% of our production capacity, the Brazilian production capacity, not the global, but the Brazilian. 30% of that is in Rio Grande do Sul. So of course, 30%, that 30% has been halted. The situation has been developing favorably.

I think the first point I can make here is that our assets are 100% protected. Our assets were not directly hit. The industrial plant, our site, they were not hit, so they're in good condition there. The operations for the supply of water, our local water supplier has resumed operations. The site does have access to the power grid, so that's not a concern either. The question that still remains today, and that's a question that needs to resume, is logistics. So in the field of logistics, I would say we have three topics. One is the logistics of people, the access of buses to bring people to the site.

In the halt process, there were shift changes that needed to be done, and so we used some helicopter operations, but that is not sustainable to keep our operations ongoing for a long period of time. So we must have highway and roadway access cleared for access to the site. And that also means the logistics of trucks. So broadly speaking, the highways and roadways, so when the level of water drops and the roadway access is minimally resumed, then we can start thinking about operations. And first, we need for the water level to drop. And there's another aspect of the logistics, which is the Santa Clara terminal. Part of our production is exported through Lagoa dos Patos. And... Today, the Santa Clara shipping terminal is currently flooded.

So again, we need for the flood to subside so that we can see if the terminal is still operational. But today, I would say that all of that falls under logistics, and we need to wait for the water level to drop and see if there have been any material impacts or if it's just a matter of cleaning everything and going back to operation. As everyone knows, it's difficult to foresee when that will happen. If we look at historical data, it could take a few days or even longer. As we know, it's now raining again in the south, but we don't have any way of forecasting when that will improve. So those are the primary impact sources in that field. Oh, there's something else that I think is important, too. We treat Brazil as an integrated platform.

So when Rio Grande do Sul stops producing, part of that production is assigned to our other sites. So we do have some optimization, some recovery of our sales and production, and this is slightly improving our operation rate, both in São Paulo and in Rio and in Bahia. So it's not a full compensation, but it is a partial compensation of this, let's say, this drop in production in the south. And a reminder, although, that we have a client base in the south, so some of our clients are requesting products, and they're asking for us to deliver product, and we are studying the best logistics to do that. And some of our clients are offline, too. We don't yet know the specific numbers quantitatively. We don't know what the balance is of demand in Rio Grande do Sul.

We haven't produced that data yet. But certainly, our country-wide optimization, which we do have implemented, is a point of value that we have been able to successfully mitigate part of the loss of volume, thanks to our country-wide integration.

Thank you, Pedro. That was very, very clear.

Speaker 1

Our next question comes from Rodrigo Reis de Almeida with Santander. You may proceed, sir.

Speaker 2

Good morning, everyone. I have a few questions here on my side, mostly trying to understand what we can see in terms of results, not spreads, but results for Braskem moving forward. I think let's start with Brazil, and we had this whole effect of importing resin over the past few quarters, and now we've got some discussions moving forward. Imports are back up now for several products. So I'd like to understand how we can start thinking. I know that there's nothing really defined in terms of Abiquim, but what about the health of Braskem? How can we work with our prices and market share, especially given the lower optimization of the industry? I'd like to understand that. And also, how the rise in share can be materialized for the price balance and market share to the rise in rate.

Also, looking at Mexico, I'd also like to get some idea on the volume we have there, combining volume and spread. I think a great deal of the spreads that we track and that you also publish on the release, they are only going to be captured in the second quarter, maybe a little bit further into the future, given the level. So I'd like to understand how we can have this effect, where we combine stronger effects with high utilization, and how we can interpret that, given that this effect can be a little difficult to calculate for our budget. And lastly, talking about the United States, I'd like to get your take on what you think about the raw material market in the U.S. Do you have any competitive advantage in the face of other PP producers?

I think those are my main questions, really, to understand Braskem's results in this context, much more so than spreads.

All right, Rodrigo, thank you for your questions. I'll begin in the order that you asked, so I'll start with Brazil. In fact, we do see a global dynamic in terms of foreign trade that is strongly impacted by the drop in domestic use in China. So China has been targeting its sales to export, its production to export, and in our analysis, they are selling under cost at a loss to some countries. And so some of the vendors who sell to those countries in Asia are now aiming their sales toward Brazil or Latin America as a new market, which are traditionally not traditional markets for those producers. And I think when Abiquim analyzes this scenario, they brought that question.

That's not happening just to our products, this is happening broadly to many products in the chemical industry. By studying the scenario, we found that we do have a scenario where it's not exactly a illegal or unfair competition, but it is being caused by market dynamics. Since this product that's coming into Brazil is not necessarily being sold below cost, anti-dumping does apply in some cases. We do have some cases where it is happening, but it's a technical discussion that is gone into with the government. The effect that is occurring is an indirect effect, and the way we can deal with that situation ends up, at the end of the day, it's through the import rates.

So we do have that discussion, that request made with the federal government, but it's a decision that is up to the federal government. Abiquim is working hard, they're trying to show the government the scope of that impact and the fact that that is bringing a drop in production rates of Brazilian producers. And it's not based solely on the competitiveness that we have here in Brazil, it's actually owed largely to actions from producers located in other countries that do not follow market rules, located elsewhere. So the question is: What impact does this have on us? Well, we have seen that we have lost some market share as a result. If you see our market share, it did drop, and that also brings down the utilization rate.

So part of the positive impact that Brazil might have seen through the increase in imports is also that owed to the increase in local production, because you establish a more balanced competition and competitive rate in the market. So that's one aspect. I can't really give you any forecasts about whether or not the government is going to adopt any of these measures, and I also can't really say what impact this might have on volume. We believe the impact would be a growth in sales in the domestic market, but today, we can't do that math. It really, really depends on the effective actions that the government will make.

We know that they will have, if they do, a positive impact, not just on Braskem, but all over Brazil, given the scope of the impact that has been occurring as a result of this attack that we've been suffering. The Brazilian competition has been suffering this attack. With regard to Mexico, we do have spreads recovering, as you mentioned, in Q2. We have the implementation of the terminal now, starting this year, but more so in early 2025. We do expect to see operation rates improving. Today, they're at 85%. This will be closer to 100%, 95% or 98%, or maybe even 100%. So if we have an increase in volume, approximately 130,000 tons-150,000 tons of additional product that we will have in Mexico with a fixed cost that has already been paid without any CapEx.

In other words, only additional contribution margin, and with a drop in the import costs of raw material in the order of $100 per ton. So in Mexico, our forecast is to reduce import costs and increase the operation rate. So this can bring us more favorable results in Mexico. And I think on the other hand, we also see Mexico with a very challenging capital scenario. They also have a significant short-term tightness, but with the perspective of that terminal, it should help to change that game, that status, that situation a little bit. And finally, thinking about the United States, I think we've mentioned in past calls already, but we have raw materials in the U.S., and you can consider two major hubs, one in Texas and one in the American Northwest.

In the Northwest, we buy propene from many different refineries, and over there, pricing is done at the local level, and since that propene is, it's refinery grade, so it's still, it has a substantial participation of other products, that propene or propylene. So we purchase that material, and we bring it from refinery grade to polymer grade. It's a very pure propylene that we need in order to use. And we do that in the Northwest United States, and that makes our propylene purchase price more competitive. And this remains, this market still exists. Now, as for the Texas hub, we have over 15 suppliers of propylene, and over there, our dynamics are different. We don't set prices, but we have many suppliers with many contracts, many pricing methods across these contracts. So within that portfolio, we can strive for optimization.

It's important to mention that today, the first quarter saw a number of unscheduled stops in the production sites on the propylene on purpose, the PDHs, PDHs in the Gulf, in Texas, but those sites have resumed operation. So now the propylene price has dropped by approximately 15%. It had gone up by 18%, and now dropped by 15%, so it's more or less pretty much at the level that it was at before. And so this also brings us more interesting competitivity in U.S. PP. So that's the summary for each region.

Pedro, thank you for your explanations. Could you please go back to Mexico a little bit and give us a medium- to long-term outlook as you are now moving into a more interesting operations level with the seaport and the terminal. And what about the spreads?

Do you have any opinion with what's happening in Mexico with regard to volume? I know you have market share, but how can we start thinking about the, the fact that the growing Mexican market will have an impact? And looking into a 10-year window, perhaps, do you have any ideas already about that?

Well, Rodrigo, we do see nearshoring occurring. For the time being, we don't yet have any very material impact. Of course, we, we stand to gain because the market will grow more. But right now, thinking about polyethylene, which we have there, we don't yet have a very significantly material impact right now. We sell roughly half of the volume we buy in Mexico. We sell it on the domestic market, so this, this situation can change a little bit. But I would not say that there's an impact right now.

If I look at the longer scenario, longer horizon, as you say, 10 years, then we are going to have a material impact. We start seeing more space on the market. So we do have that scenario in that long, long term. What else we can say about Mexico in the long-term scenario is the perspective for expanding the site. Today, we have. The site is prepared to be expanded. It is extremely low CapEx because the site was built with a project that was already prepared for expansion right from the design phase. So we can improve capacity by 15%-20% with a very low CapEx. And as soon as the terminal starts operation, we will have raw material. That's going to be the bottleneck, raw material. So we will have the raw material for expansion.

So we have the perspective for a high-value investment and an investment with high return, with low CapEx. With the shipping logistics already defined, I would say that it's a very obvious investment for us to make in the long term.

Perfect. Thank you, Pedro.

Speaker 1

Again, we'd like to remind you, if you wish to ask a question, click on the raise hand button or send your question through the Q&A window. Excuse me. We'll start reading the questions that came from the Q&A. You may proceed.

I'm going to read a question, and I would like to thank all the question asked via chat, and I'm going to make some of the questions, and this is from an individual. The person asks us to make comments about the plant maintenance concerning during the cash consumption, and the person also ask about the future demand.

Speaker 2

Well, with regard to plant maintenance, this year, as a result of the low cycle, we engaged in a very in-depth exercise in prioritizing investment. So we do have a drop in CapEx now for 2024. And this occurs as a result of two factors. The first one, which is relevant, is a program Braskem began many years ago, almost 10 years ago, which is a program to extend the downtime cycle. If we look at petrochemical sites and installations in Brazil, we had a dynamic where we had downtime every six years. And roughly 10 years ago, we started changing the planning for the maintenance and how Braskem handles maintenance downtime, and we were all able to extend that up to seven, right, or in some cases, nine years between downtime for the different centers.

So if we see what's happening in 2024, is that we do not have any centers being downtimed this year, and those can be valued at $60 million-$90 million. So this year, we do not have that CapEx for a significant downtime in a petrochemical center. This is a factor that led us to reduce CapEx. Another factor that reduced our CapEx is that in this prioritization of our investments that I mentioned, we ended up significantly limiting our investment on strategic and growth projects. This year, we are devoted to studying engineering projects, for instance, the Thailand project, and perhaps some polypropylene projects in the U.S. or Green MEG. We've also got ongoing engineering projects, but we don't have CapEx for building a new plant, so that's another reduction process.

Again, in this process of being more selective about our investments, we kept those investments that pertain to the safety of our operation, and we also kept investments that pertain to plant reliability. So your question is whether that's impacting the plant? Well, we maintain those investments. What can potentially happen is the following: we have some investments we make, which are investments into plant availability. Now, in a high cycle, you want your plant to be running 100% of the time, all the time, and so you employ additional CapEx to keep that ongoing. This investment to make assets available is part of our priorities. We don't need plants to be available 100% of the time right now, so we have kept part of the prioritization involved, reducing plants, because we don't need them at 100% operations all the time.

We're not in that market. So part of our CapEx optimization comes from that thought. With regard to your other question, which is about how demand can have an impact, I would say that, and also the outlook, whether the demand and prices will improve. We've talked a little bit about prices and spreads and the slow recovery. Demand really depends on the Brazilian GDP. For this year, our projection is that demand will grow, demand for polymers will grow by 8% in the Brazilian market, so it is significant growth. PP is a little bit lower at 5%, approximately, PE at 10%, PVC, 8%. So if I were to highlight any of these segments and say which one had greater demand, I would say the public health and sanitation, so tubes, connections, both polyethylene and PVC.

So in those fields, we do see growth and demand of these segments. That would be measured at approximately 8% in Brazil this year. So it's a quite interesting growth.

Speaker 1

Excuse me. We end the Q&A session now. I would like to turn the floor over to the company, to Mr. Roberto Bischoff, for his final remarks.

Speaker 2

Hello, good morning, everyone. I'd like to thank everyone for taking part in our earnings call this time, and I'd like to make some final remarks before I once again talk about Rio Grande do Sul, which is very important. As we presented today, we had a quarter with improved results, considering improved spreads in the petrochemical scenario. But also, as Pedro mentioned, also considering efforts already implemented by the company in the search for and implementation of initiatives seeking financial resiliency and preservation. Some of these were already begun in 2023, and whose results are now being materializing over the course of 2024. I think it's important to highlight that this will always be our commitment to all of you. Our discipline in allocating capital and never forgetting, and also continuing to advance in implementations very selectively, very selective implementation of our growth strategy.

So this is something we've been balancing at the current time. I'd also like to take this time to talk about the situation in the south. This was mentioned quite often, but I'd like to mention once again, the situation in the Brazilian south, which everyone knows has been suffering heavily due to climate events. Firstly, due to our operation, as Pedro mentioned, we completed our safe halt. This began on Friday. We made the decision to halt. This occurred over the course of the weekend, so we concluded the halt process safely. It was a scheduled halt of all plants located in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. That includes the cracker, the second-generation plants. This represents roughly 30% of our production capacity for ethene in Brazil.

As was mentioned, part of that can be reassigned to other centers that are currently operating at lower capacity, and others, for specific characteristics, cannot be replaced immediately. From the perspective of assets, our assets, we don't have major concerns because they were all halted in a planned manner, and they were not significantly impacted directly by the rain. So our forecast for resuming operation more clearly depends on, as Pedro mentioned, the more general infrastructure context and logistics context throughout the state. We have not yet had the chance to perform a more complete assessment, but we are monitoring the impact there, and we will keep everyone up to date, particularly if there are any relevant developments in that sense.

Secondly, and without a doubt, even more importantly, I'd like to share with all of you that we all feel for and care for all the victims of this terrible situation. We'd like to highlight that everyone is important in making a difference here. So I would like to highlight our engagement in, firstly, the safety and also the implementation of initiatives to support them. Support not just our employees and friends, but also the residents of all the nearby communities and the Brazilian south as a whole, particularly Rio Grande do Sul. Braskem, as a company, is engaged in supporting and will remain engaged in supporting not just to face this present emergency, but also the reconstruction process which will follow.

To conclude, I would like to thank all of you once again for the trust you invest in us and for taking part in this call, and I hope to see you all in August when we publish our results for the second quarter. Have a great day, everyone.

Speaker 1

That concludes Braskem's earnings conference for today. We would like to thank you for your participation, and have a nice day.