Braskem - Q4 2022

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning everyone, and thank you for waiting. Welcome to Braskem's fourth quarter 2022 results conference call. With us here today we have Roberto Bischoff, Braskem's CEO, Pedro Freitas, Braskem's CFO, and Rosana Avolio, Investor Relations Strategic Planning and Corporate Market Intelligence Director. This event is being recorded and all participants will be in a listen-only mode during the company's presentation. After Braskem's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. At that time, further instructions will be given. Should any participant need assistance during this call, please press star 0 to reach the operator. This event is also being broadcast live via webcast and may be accessed through Braskem's website at www.braskem.com/ri, where the presentation is also available. Participants may view the slides in any order they wish. The audio will be available shortly after the event's concluded.

Those following the presentation via the webcast may pose their questions to Braskem via website. They will be answered by the I.R. team after the conference is finished. Before proceeding, let me mention that forward statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Braskem management and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to future events and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors and analysts should understand that macroeconomic conditions, industry conditions, and other could also cause results to differ materially from those expressing such forward-looking statements. I'll turn the conference over to Rosana Avolio, Investor Relations, Strategic Planning, and Corporate Market Intelligence Director. Mrs. Avolio, you may begin your presentation.

Rosana Avolio (Director of Investor Relations, Strategic Planning, and Corporate Market Intelligence)

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in Braskem conference call. Today we will present our results for the fourth quarter of 2022 and also for the year of 2022. Considering that, let's start with slide number 3, which shows Braskem's main highlights in the period. Starting with our consolidated highlights, I will start talking about our achievements in our biopolymer business. We had an historical record of green PE sales volume in 2022 since the beginning of our operations in 2010. It should be noted that we are expanding our current green ethylene capacity of 200 KT by 30%. This project is ongoing with physical progress of 86% by December 2022. Regarding our recycling business, there was an increase of 144% in the sales of products with recycled content in 2022.

In the fourth quarter of 2022, we made relevant advances related to the ethane import terminal in Mexico, with Braskem today announcing the conclusion of the investment agreement signed with Advario. The construction started in July of 2022 and reached 25% of physical progress as of December 2022. I would like to remember that the terminal will have the capacity to import 80,000 barrels per day of ethane, which will allow Braskem today to import all of its feedstock needs while enabling future expansion of PE production capacity in Mexico by around 20%. On the social front, Braskem supported 153 social initiatives that impacted over 610,000 people all over the world. Moving to the financial highlights.

During the fourth quarter of 2022, the industry remained impacted by the imbalance between global supply and demand, which resulted in compressed international spreads of chemical and petrochemical products. The dynamics of the sector were directly influenced by the startup of new capacity globally, by the geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic uncertainties, and the possibility of a slowdown in major economies. In this scenario, Braskem reported recurring EBITDA of $2.06 billion in 2022, and in addition to a cash generation of $654 million in the same period, reflecting in a cash flow yield of 18%. In 2022, Braskem continued to present solid credit metrics with corporate leverage remaining under control and a strong liquidity position, sufficiency to cover debts coming due in the next 5 years and supporting our investment grade by the rating agencies.

Let's move to the next slide, please. In 2022, recurring EBITDA was around $2.1 billion, down 64% from the previous year and explained mainly by the lower spreads in the international market, lower sales volume of main chemicals in the Brazil segment, PP in the U.S. and Europe, and the accounting effect of inventory net realizable in the net amount of $84 million. Let's move to the next slide, which covers our highlights in Brazil segment.

In 2022, the petrochemical crackers in Brazil operated at an average utilization rate of 78%, 3 percentage points lower than the previous year, mainly explained by the adequacy of production due to lower spreads in the international market, by the scheduled maintenance shutdown at the petrochemical complex in Rio Grande do Sul, and PVC plant in Alagoas. In the year, rising sales volume in the Brazilian market remained stable compared to 2021 due to our commercial efforts to prioritize the Brazilian market supply. The export volumes in that scenario also remained stable. In this context, recovery EBITDA from Brazil in 2022 was $1.211 billion. Let's move to the next slide. First, it's important to mention that the green polyethylene, it's a biopolymer produced from Brazilian sugarcane ethanol. It is a differentiated product.

Besides being renewable, it has a negative carbon footprint, the same properties and applications fossil polyethylene with 100% of recyclability. Braskem has more than 12 years of established industrial operation. It's a pioneer and world leader in green PE production. Considering that in 2022, the utilization rate of green ethylene decreased compared to 2021 due to scheduled shutdowns at the polyethylene units in Rio Grande do Sul over the year. It's still historically high levels. Braskem's green PE reached a record sales volume. These results consider the whole history of operation, which started back in 2010. Moving to the next slide, which shows the progress made on action fronts related to geological event in Alagoas.

The chart on the left shows total provision for the geological event in Alagoas of BRL 13.1 billion, of which BRL 6.9 billion was already being disbursed. The chart in the middle shows the outstanding amount of the provision, which ended Q4 2022 at around BRL 6.6 billion, with 64% of the total amount provision booked under the short term and 36% under the long term. It is important to point out that Braskem cannot eliminate future developments related to the matter or its associated expenses. The cost to be incurred by Braskem may differ from its estimate or accrued amounts. Moving on, but still on the geological event, the next slide show the progress made on action fronts.

Regarding relocation compensation, Braskem continues to advance with the process of relocation financial compensation of families located in neighborhoods in risky areas in Maceió. The number of proposals for financial compensation to be made reached 18,862 in February 2023, 98% of the total estimated. We would like to highlight that the proposal acceptance rate remained high at 99.6%. On the closing monetary of wells action front, as of end of February 2023, of the 35 well cavities, 9 are in the same backfilling group, with 1 already being concluded. Actions on the social urban development are concentrated in the urban mobility, social compensation, and actions in relocation areas. On this working front, there were several important advances in the year.

All 11 urban mobility actions are in progress, 8 of which already have executive projects concluded and 3 of them are already in the construction phase. Conclusion of demolition process at Encosta do Mutange and progress in other stabilization activities. Let's move to the next slide, please. This slide presents the highlights of our operation in the United States and Europe. In 2022, the PP plants in the United States operated at a capacity utilization rate of 79%, down 70 percentage points from 2021, with the reduction explained by the adjustment of the production volume due to weaker demand in the region and schedule maintenance shutdowns. In Europe, the capacity utilization rate decreased 10 percentage points from the prior year, reflecting the lower demand, weak economic performance in the region, and high inventory levels in the converted chain.

In terms of sales performance, the US registered sales volume in the year of 1,589,000 tons, 4% lower than in 2021. However, our commercial efforts helped with the sales decrease being lower than the reduction demand in the US. The segment's recurring EBITDA in 2022 was $609 million. Moving to the next slide, please. The Mexico unit operated at capacity utilization rate of 73% in 2022, 7 percentage points higher than in 2021, reflecting the increased retained supply by Pemex and higher ethane imports under the Fast Track solution. Sales volume increased by 20% compared to the last year, reflecting a higher utilization rate at Braskem Idesa. The segment recurring EBITDA in 2022 was $212 million. Moving on to the next slide.

Braskem is a company that has consistently presented positive operating cash flow, even in downturns in the petrochemical cycle. Our decision-making process aims to maximize the present value of our future cash generation. Considering that, cash generation in 2022 was around BRL 3.3 billion. Excluding payments related to the geological event in Alagoas, the company delivered a recurring cash flow of around BRL 6 billion, resulting in a cash flow yield of 18% and a recurring cash flow yield of 33% respectively. Let's move to the next slide.

Braskem ended the year maintaining a very long debt maturity profile and a strong liquidity position, with the majority of its debts coming due in 2030 onwards. The average debt term was around 13 years, and the current liquidity position covered all debts coming due in the next 60 months, not considering the international revolving credit facility of $1 billion available until 2026. In this scenario, Braskem continues to present solid credit metrics with corporate leverage at 2.42 times by the end of 2022. It is important to mention that we keep acting on conservative principles such as net debt in U.S. dollars as a head to match our exposure of the business to international prices, transparent dividend policy, and concentration of funding in the capital markets.

I would like to highlight that on February 2023, Braskem concluded the issuance of a bond in the international market in the amount of $1 billion with a maturity in 2033. In February, we made a total repayment of our bond due in 2024. Regarding rating agencies, in the last few months, S&P and Fitch maintained our investment grade rating with a stable outlook. Let's move to the next slide, please. In 2022, Braskem revised its strategy to support the investment prioritization and capital allocation for 2030. Considering our long-term commitment in sustainable development, market trends and demand for the coming years. Braskem's strategy consists of its foundation, strategic pillars and growth avenues.

The foundation for our strategy reflects the value we practice consistently, and they are fundamental to guarantee the achievement for our ambitions in the different pillars and growth avenues based on safety, people and governance. Our strategic pillar reinforce our long-term ambitions in productivity and competitiveness, sustainability, growth and diversification, and innovation. Our ambition in productivity and competitiveness is drive our assets towards the first quartile of the petrochemical industry cash cost curve, focusing on decarbonization initiatives and selective investments. Considering that, we'll focus on operational efficiency and excellence, commercial logistics effectiveness, seeking cost leadership and differentiation through our relationship with clients and partners, while focusing on the transition into a more decarbonized industry. In sustainability, our ambition is to be a reference in sustainable development in the global chemical and plastic sector.

As part of our strategy, we made commitments for our next phase of transformation that creates value in the transition to a carbon neutral circular economy. In growth and diversification, since the beginning, Braskem's strategy was strongly based on the diversification of raw materials and geographies, looking towards a balance of raw materials profile, reducing our exposure and growing our capacity globally. Our ambitions incorporate more focus on increasing our bio-based and circular feedstock and products, evolving with a portfolio expansion according to business strategy to support client needs and ensuring our adaptability to consolidate a leadership position and remain competitive. To do all of this, we must improve our efforts in innovation. Our ambition in this pillar is deliver high value sustainable solutions through chemical and plastic innovation.

Braskem intend to deliver tangible, sustainable solution through the development of disrupt technologies, processes, business models and partnerships guaranteeing the business future. Moving to our growth avenues, we define our pathway to growth based on three avenues. In traditional business, we intend to grow our current business through selective investments, including productivities and competitiveness improvements, as well as continue to implement the decarbonization of our current assets. These measures, together will enable the delivery of our goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 and reducing Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 15% by 2030. In the bio-based avenue, our ambition is to grow in bio-based resins and chemicals. In addition to expanding the use of renewable raw materials with the objective of achieving our goal of expanding the production capacity of green products to 1 million ton by 2030.

Lastly, in recycling, we intend to grow in circular products through mechanical recycling and expand the use of circular feedstocks through advanced recycling, aiming to achieve our public commitment of grow the portfolio products with recycled content to reach 300 KT by 2025 and 1 million tons by 2030. Finally, based on our pillars, avenues and foundations, we aim to continue to balance our capital allocation, returning value to shareholders while we invest in our business and its growth opportunities, generating positive impact for all stakeholders. Moving to the next slide. In the first growth avenue, traditional business, Braskem will grow its business through selective high value added investments with improvements in competitiveness and focus on current assets decarbonization. In 2022, we already delivered important achievements on this avenue. The first one is the ethane import terminal construction in Mexico.

The company Terminal Química Puerto México is a joint venture between Braskem and Advario, with each company holding an interest of 50%. The terminal feedstock supply capacity will be around 80,000 barrels per day of ethane, which represents around 120% of the current feedstock needs for Braskem in this. The project CapEx estimated to be around $450 million with the terminal startup expected for the second half of 2024. In the end of December 2022, the project reached a physical progress of 26%. In the Industrial Decarbonization program, we already have prioritized initiatives that will allow Braskem to achieve our emission reduction commitment with positive NPV. The program is part of our governance strategy for a commitment to fight climate change.

Lastly, Transform for Value is our global efficiency program implemented to accelerate improvement in different areas of the company, as well as redesign our process structure, generating value for the company through process optimization. The program ended 2022 on pace of capture around $353 million per year in initiatives that have reached more advanced stages of maturity. Let's move to the next slide, which shows Braskem bio-based growth avenue. In this growth avenue, we would like to highlight our main initiatives that will support us to achieve our commitment to reach a production of 1 million tons of green products by 2030. These initiatives are the debottlenecking project of our green ethylene plant in Triunfo, in Rio Grande do Sul. This project is ongoing and will result in an additional production capacity of 600 KT per year.

We will continue to move forward with feasibility studies for the construction of a green ethylene plant in Thailand together with SCG Chemicals, with the potential to even double our current green PE capacity. Let's go to the next slide, please. Regarding our sustainable product portfolio, we have 40 grades of PCR for different applications. In 2022, our sales of products with recycled content reached 54 KT, an increase of 144% from 2021. On the technology development front, Braskem also signed several partnerships agreements for the development of new technology with a high potential for plastic waste recovery. Regarding the environmental and education and consumer engagement, we accounted for 33,500 tons of recovered plastic in the year, an increase of 156% compared to 2021.

Lastly, on the circular design of applications front, we inaugurate the Cazoolo, the first packaging development center for the circular economy in Brazil. Let's go to the next slide, please. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the petrochemical spread reached its bottom, impacted mainly by the dynamics between global supply and demand. For the coming years, there is a market expectation of a recovery path for the petrochemical cycle as a consequence of demand growth being higher than the expected supply additions globally, as you can see in the chart. Moving to the next slide. Considering the moment of the cycle, Braskem has established several initiatives to improve EBITDA and cash flow generation.

Regarding our EBITDA initiatives, we would like to highlight the optimization of global trade management, the global optimization of fixed and variable costs with cost-conscious targets for all team members of the company, and also the continuous progress of our Transform for Value program. These initiatives together have the potential to increase EBITDA by around $350 million in 2023. Among the initiatives impacting cash flow generation, we would like to highlight the working capital optimization across the integrated production planning, the prioritization in the investment process for corporate CapEx without impacting maintenance CapEx and the reliability of our assets, and the generation of cash through non-recurrent monetization throughout the year. Summing all these initiatives, we have a potential for additional cash generation of $500 million-$600 million in 2023. Moving to the next slide.

For Brazil segment, the expectation for first quarter of 2023 is for an increase in ethylene production. On the commercial front, the expectations for resins volume to increase and for spreads, external consulting firms are expecting high spreads for resins and low spreads for main chemical products. In the United States, capacity utilization rate should increase compared to the fourth quarter 2022. However, the sales volume should keep stable and the U.S. PP minus propylene spreads should decrease. Lastly, in Mexico, the expectations for maintaining CP production with higher PE sales volume and higher spreads in the region. Let's go to the next slide, please. On this slide, I'll go over our 5 priorities for this year, taking into consideration our strategic pillars. The first one is optimize operations of assets and focus on cost discipline to capture synergies across the regions.

The second one is to implement initiatives on financial preservation, focused on creating value for all shareholders. The third one is to prioritize investments for eliminating plastic waste and combating climate change and focus on initiatives related to social responsibility and human rights. Regarding innovation, we want to expand strategic innovation and digital transformation. Finally, advance on all our action fronts related to the geological event in Alagoas, fulfilling the commitments established in the agreements.

We would like to reinforce that safe operation are and always will be the focus on Braskem's operation as a permanent and non-negotiable value of our strategy. That concludes today's presentation of Braskem results for the fourth quarter of 2022. Thank you all for your attention, and let's go to the question and answer session.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, we'll now begin the question and answer session. If you have a question, please press the star key followed by the one key on your touch tone phone now. If at any time you would like to remove yourself from the questioning queue, press star two. Our first question comes from Vicente Falanga with Bradesco BBI. Please, Vicente, go ahead.

Vicente Falanga (Senior Equity Analyst)

Thank you, everyone. Thank you, Pedro. Thank you, Rosana. I have a couple questions here. First of all, we'd love to hear your most updated views on the outlook for PE PP spreads. We here have an expectation of improvements more towards the end of the year. Wanted to know if Braskem shares this view. Second, we have been hearing from the new CEO of Petrobras, Jean Paul Prates, that he wants to see Brazil free of chemical imports. At the same time, there has been a big push from the government to increase the supply of natural gas. I wanted to know, you know, if Braskem could be interested in resuming large petrochemical complexes here in Brazil, like the idea of doing one in Comperj, potentially fed by pre-salt gas.

Thank you.

Pedro Freitas (CFO)

Hi, Vicente. Good morning. Nice talking to you. Starting with the spreads, our view is similar to what you described. It's a recovery year in terms of PE PP spreads over time, over the year. We don't see and we don't expect any huge shifts in the spreads from quarter to quarter. Overall, through the year, a recovery to levels that, in our view, are going to be around mid-cycle by the end of the year. That's our view for spreads, both for PE and PP. We have been seeing some positive news coming from China with the end of the lockdowns. We see economists and forecasters changing upwards their view on China growth.

All of that points to this recovery in spreads through the year. In any scenario, we have been looking at the situation very carefully and managing the company in a way that is responsive to that situation. We are cutting costs. We have reduced the CapEx outlook for the year. We are looking at working capital management and also reinforcing the Transform for Value program to find other opportunities to create value in the short term. It's also important that we see this still kind of more challenging scenario through this year. When we look at 2024, 2025, the outlook is more positive because then we don't see enough capacity coming to the market.

The capacity growth outlook, as was highlighted by Rosana in the presentation, is actually below demand growth. If China recovers faster, that could be even more positive going into 2024, 2025. We see this We have this view that the scenario is going to be more positive in kind of the midterm, looking at an upswing in the cycle in 2024, 2025, and 2026. Regarding petchem investments in Brazil, of course, we would be interested if there is more natural gas liquids available. If there is more ethane and propane available in Brazil coming from pre-salt, we would be interested in having access to those volumes.

The most competitive investment in Brazil that anybody can make in the industry today is in expanding our cracker and site in Rio de Janeiro. That would be, I would say, the best alternative for the country on where to allocate that additional feedstock if it comes to the shore. We keep following and tracking pre-salt activity closely. We have a constant dialogue with players in the industry to understand and be positioned whenever the availability of feedstock is concrete to be able to step in. We don't see that happening in the very short term, let's say this year, next year. We are tracking and kind of being very close to the industry to access that opportunity whenever it comes to market.

Vicente Falanga (Senior Equity Analyst)

Great. That's very clear. Thank you, Pedro.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Gabriel Barra with Citibank. Please, Gabriel, go ahead.

Gabriel Barra (VP of Equity Research and Head of Latam O and G, Petchem, and Agribusiness)

Roberto, Gabriel, Rosana, thanks for taking my questions here. I have two here, three, if I may. The first one regarding the Transform for Value program. I think that's, it's really great, right? Interesting, and take a look on, in the, in terms of the amount that you can generate for the company. I think that some points here that I want to understand a little bit better. You mentioned in the conference call, the impact of $353 million in 2022. In the earnings, you mentioned a future impact of $387 million, to be captured in the following years.

My point here is how should we compare these numbers with the in this impact from last year in 2022? What's the marginal effect when you compare with 2021? What's the net amount for 2022 and in order to understand what's been the impact in the year? The second is what's the timeline for the BRL 387 that we are going to capture in the following years? On the timeline for that, what would be the impact here for 2023? This is the first question. The second one is regarding the import taxes. Recently you have seen some changes, right?

I'd like to understand better here what's the impact for the company in 2023. What's the amount that the company could, let's say, capture from this increase import taxes. The third one, in back to spreads. You know, a quick follow-up here. USPP was, let's say, a safe haven for the company, right? With an net import market, et cetera, with good margins. As you mentioned in the conference call, we are expecting, let's say, this market change for to a export market. My point is how should we think about this in the next years? We believe that U.S. should become again an important market.

This 2024 that you mentioned here that you change this again, with, let's say a lower capacity. What's pricing in here in terms of recession, demand, et cetera? I want to understand the dynamic here that we are seeing for U.S. That's my questions. Thank you.

Pedro Freitas (CFO)

Hi, Gabriel. Thank you for your questions. On Transform for Value, it's important to understand that the program, the pace of capture of the program, sometimes we are talking about annualized capture, sometimes we're talking about what is actually captured in that year, right? When we say that the program, capture in last year was $283 million, we're talking about the cumulative capture in last year compared to a base of 2020. That includes both initiatives that have, I would say, an increase in EBITDA compared to the previous year, but also initiatives that are geared towards avoiding losses that would lead to losses in EBITDA, right? It's a mix of both.

When we are talking about the program, we add digital technology projects. We add continuous improvement projects, and also other initiatives that are related to energy efficiency and, I would say, positive NPV competitiveness and productivity projects. When we, Rosana Avolio presented also in the slides that we see an impact, a positive impact of Transform for Value of about $150 million this year. It's also important to understand that up to now we have been disclosing the numbers comparing to 2020. The 150 that Rosana Avolio highlighted is a comparison with 2022.

We're changing the base to make it easier for you guys to understand what is the value of the program on a rolling basis. For this year, given that we have lower spreads, for example, an additional ton of product that the project yields is worth a fewer dollars, right? That's why we see a reduction in the yearly impact. It relates to the spread reduction as well. Again, to reinforce this year in 2023 compared to 2022, we expect a positive impact of Transform for Value of about $150 million. Okay.

Regarding the second question about the import tariff and the impact, I will recall that last year, some analysts and market experts were gauging and assessing that the impact of reduction of the tariffs over one year, which was the original timeframe, was about $150 million of lower EBITDA for Braskem, which would be split between 2022 and 2023, right? Part of that was already in last year's results. For this year, it would be a reduction of about $70 million-$80 million in EBITDA. With this, we recover a part of that. If you just do kind of a monthly average, you probably get to a ballpark that makes sense.

It's important to mention that the main impact we see is in recovery of market share, given that the resetting of tariffs to the previous level and kind of to the average level of the other products in Brazil brings us back to a parity of competitiveness that I do believe will lead to a recovery, especially in market share. Then on the last question about the U.S. shift to export market, to becoming an export market. What we see is, I mean, there were a couple of new plants that started up end of last year. This year we're still seeing, because they are ramping up, we still see that there will be more supply growth than demand growth in the U.S.

For next year, for example, we don't see any new supply in the U.S. or for the following years, in fact. I mean, if you look into the future, we are not seeing any new investments or credible investments in PP in the U.S. Our view is that this impact will last for this year. Next year should already be a year where exports will be starting to come down again. Then, the U.S. will come back potentially between 2024, 2025, come back to becoming a net importer again. One thing that I think is important to mention is that when we approved the new project that we started up back in 2021 in the U.S., the business case for that project included a significant amount of exports.

We were already seeing that shift of the U.S. to an export hub. We created an export facility in Charleston to be able to have very efficient logistics to export. Going forward, we are pretty confident that the return on the project will continue to be very good because the business case already expected this to happen. Also, another important aspect is to consider Braskem's commercial efforts in the U.S. The market last year for PP in the U.S. had a reduction of 6% roughly, while our sales in the internal market fell by 4%. In fact, we gained some market share in the U.S. even in this tough market conditions.

Gabriel Barra (VP of Equity Research and Head of Latam O and G, Petchem, and Agribusiness)

Thanks. Very clear.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Luiz Carvalho with UBS. Please, Luis, go ahead.

Luiz Carvalho (Managing Director and Head of Research and LatAm)

Hi, Pedro, Rosana. Thanks for the question. It's only three points here. I know that we'd like to have a bit more color from your end. The first one, Pedro, on the leverage. You still have a quite, you know, relative controlled leverage. When we look forward, you know, as far as the, you know, the current weak results that, you know, the company has been delivered because of the spreads, this will impact into the leverage looking forward on a substantial way, you know, according to our calculation here. Just trying to understand how, you know, how you're seeing... You raised a bond in the beginning of the year, I think it's $1 billion.

How are you seeing into the debt management, and the end of the day, if you can talk about the, any covenants or waivers, that would be interesting to understand how you're seeing this? The second one, it's about the, I don't know, the inflation, right? We have been seeing inflation, you know, globally that has been impacting materially the capital for many companies. Just trying to understand a bit better how the, I don't know, the global inflation and maybe specifically in Brazil is impacting your sector, and if it makes sense to consider higher maintenance CapEx, you know, compared to historical levels, without, you know, and also if it has any impact on the Mexico investments?

very lastly, more on the additional capacity, globally, we have been following this Monaca plant from Shell. There have been some discussions about mechanical issues and potential delays on the startup. If you can comment on the potential delays and how you're seeing the additional capacity coming over the next couple of quarters or potentially in 2024. Thank you.

Pedro Freitas (CFO)

Hi, Luiz. Thank you for your questions. On leverage, what we're seeing is that leverage is going to go up. It's just a matter of numbers, right? We had still a strong first half of last year and a very weak second half. We are now replacing. Now this year, as I mentioned earlier, is a recovery year. We're going to see, we expect to see a better first half of this year compared to the second half of last year. Compared to the first half of last year, it's going to be a weaker first half, right? We are replacing a first half of last year that was pretty strong with a weaker first half of this year, in terms of EBITDA, right?

The leverage number is going to go up because the EBITDA number on a last 12-month basis is going to come down. Our net debt is under control, so it's within ranges that we find very acceptable, and we don't anticipate them to go up above any threshold that we would find concerning. The net leverage number is going to go up until June. Then in the second half of the year, our outlook is for a better second half of this year compared to the second half of last year.

By the end of the second half of this year, leverage will come down, or we expect it to come down as the EBITDA number recovers, replacing a better second quarter, second half this year compared to the second half of last year. This is how we're seeing the rating agencies understand this dynamic. We have been in dialogue with them about this and they understand the cyclical nature of the business and kind of the short-term effects that the business may face. Regarding the bond and debt management, I mean, we did this bond issuance. We saw a very narrow window, kind of a sliver of a window, in the beginning of February.

We had $300 million roughly of bonds maturing in the beginning of next year, in January of next year. We also saw a very uncertain financial market situation. We saw also kind of the cyclicality of our business. We decided to come to tap the market in that moment because we saw that kind of very narrow breach in terms of potential deal that we actually were able to pull through. We have since paid down the 2024 bond. For the rest, I mean, we're going to wait a few more months to see how the market develops, the cycle develops.

If things perform in a favorable way, we are probably going to continue doing the liability management with the pursuit of that bond. Regarding covenants and waivers, we don't have any financial covenants in our corporate debt at Braskem, so that is not an issue even with metrics kind of shifting over the next quarters. Regarding your second question about, sorry, still on leverage, it's important also to mention that our debt maturity profile remains very long. The average debt term is 13 years. Our cash position is pretty strong to face the future scenario. We have enough cash to pay down five years of debt if necessary.

Regarding the inflation impact, Rosana is reminding me here that all of that does not consider the standby credit facility that we have until 2026 of a $1 billion addition. On inflation, we do see an impact when we look at the sector. Prices adjust, so we follow international prices. As costs go up, the marginal cost producers will have to... We see that happening somehow. Some adjustment in prices could be because of supply-demand dynamics. It could be something related to inflation as well. We see those adjustments starting to happen. We even saw some of our peers announcing one-off adjustments to make up, for example, for higher energy costs year of last year.

Regarding CapEx and how we see that, our total operating CapEx for this year is without Mexico, $650 million, which is in line. The operating includes some positive NPV projects that are not strictly maintenance CapEx. This number is in line with what we have been telling you in the past that the run rate number for Braskem in terms of maintenance CapEx are about $600 million per year. Do we see inflation in that? Sometimes yes, sometimes no. Right now, for example, there is a favorable condition for some equipment that we see already having prices reduced. In the back end of, I mean, 2021, we did see a lot of over cost in equipment. Now that is, that has abated substantially.

It depends a lot on the pieces of CapEx that we're talking about. In terms of services, we do see some inflation, but again, not something that makes us concerned. Talking about, I mean, the Shell project, and delays. I would just make a more general comment on that. Delays happen in the industry. We actually have a pretty good at Braskem, a pretty good track record in terms of delivering on time and on budget. The Delta project, the last big project we did, was delayed by about 10%, a few months, and that was because mostly of COVID, not because of our internal deliveries. It was about six months delayed. This happens in the industry.

Every year, we see that capacity additions are postponed and delayed. As you know, we take a more conservative view when you talk about the cycle. We are assuming that everything will come to the market in the time expected, but usually that doesn't happen. There is some upside to the scenario because of delays and especially I would say in PE globally, where we see still substantial capacity coming to the market this year.

Daniel Soyode (Distressed and HY Desk Analyst)

Okay. Very, very clear. Thank you very much, Pedro.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Frank McGann with Bank of America. Please, Frank, go ahead.

Frank McGann (Managing Director)

Okay. Thank you very much, and I apologize, I had some connection problems. Some of these might have been asked. The first one, just in terms of the payments related to the Alagoas provision and how that is affecting your tax rate, both the reported tax rate and your cash taxes would be helpful. Also, just in terms of PVC, I mean, the price has been rising recently and, I just wonder how much you attribute that to China reopening or what other factors you see, and particularly what kind of capacity additions that you see for PVC over the short to medium term, globally that could affect supply-demand dynamics.

On polypropylene, I think this might have been asked 'cause the line wasn't clear when this question was asked from me anyways. In terms of the with a, you know, huge amount of capacity coming on in the U.S. and how you're seeing that affecting the next couple of years, and particularly how that could feed through into Brazilian pricing and margins. Thank you.

Pedro Freitas (CFO)

Hi, Frank. Nice talking to you. On Alagoas, I understand your question is specifically about the tax impact. As for any expense that we have, it's for tax purposes, it's considered an expense, which is deductible, right? From a cash basis, there is some benefit coming out of that, but it's part of our tax regular tax filings as a deductible expense that we have in the company. Yeah, as you know, the tax rate in Brazil is 34%, so that is kind of the net impact that we see. In terms of PVC, we see demand coming especially from China. Sorry, especially from India.

It's from Asia, but, especially from India, until March. In April, we see some downward adjustment, but caustic soda is still playing a positive role in the combined spread of PVC plus caustic, right. There is an upside as China recovers, but that recovery is still slow, so we're not seeing that impact. We don't we're not assuming a fast recovery from China in our numbers. The net positive is really more coming from India. Then, regarding capacity additions in the U.S., when we look at PP, we don't see substantial new capacity additions in the coming years. We believe that the capacities that were expected to come to market have done so.

They are already in the numbers. We do see still PP capacity coming to the market in China, especially this year, right? On PE, there is still some capacity to come to market in the U.S., based on PE. It's still based on the competitiveness of ethane in the U.S. The total addition that we see for the coming years is about 2 million tons. Still, I would say most of that concentrated still this year. I guess what I'm trying to convey is that what we believe is the capacity addition cycle in the U.S. will be much slower in the coming years. When we look at how could that affect us, I would split that into kind of the two products, right?

In PE, capacity additions, be it in the U.S. or China, but capacity additions, tend to lead to if they are faster than demand growth, as we still expect this year, they tend to reduce spreads globally. That has an effect on our, I would say margins, especially in Mexico and Brazil, because we price, based on the U.S. price, right, for polyethylene. In PP, in the U.S. it's much more local in terms of how pricing is. As mentioned earlier, we do see the market shifting to an export parity. That would mean, a bit lower margins in the U.S., compared to, let's say the average of the last, four or five years. In Brazil, we price out of Asia, right?

As the Asian price recovers, we see potential recovery in the PP price in Brazil. That again depends on demand recovery in China.

Frank McGann (Managing Director)

Okay. Thank you very much. Very helpful.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Daniel Soyode with BNP. Please, Daniel, go ahead.

Daniel Soyode (Distressed and HY Desk Analyst)

Hello. Hello. Two questions from me. Firstly, are you expecting H2 2022 to H2 2023 to be better than H1 2022? The second question, you said that you're in dialogue with rating agencies. Can you confirm that you're committed to maintaining your investment grade rating? Thank you.

Pedro Freitas (CFO)

Hi, David. Thank you for your questions. Our internal assumption is that H2 '23 will not be as strong as H1 '22. H1 '22 was an above average. If you look at the cycle, it was above average of the cycle. I'd say, and our view is that this year we maybe by the end of the year we get back to average cycle spreads. Last year, it was really still an up cycle, right? So again, just to reinforce, we are not seeing H2 '23 being as strong as H1 '22.

Regarding the other question about rating agencies, we are committed to keeping the investment grade of the company and we have a constant dialogue with them to make sure that they are updated on everything that is going on. We have very strong trust in our credit profile. We see that the very long term maturity of the debt in the cyclical industry is a key aspect of the decision by the rating agencies. We also, as you can see with what we just did in liability management, we keep committed to that route.

We do expect to keep the investment grade, especially because our numbers are in line with what the agencies expect in terms, as I mentioned earlier, higher leverage in first half of 2023 and then reduction with improvement of spreads. All of that is a very open dialogue with the agencies and we keep committed to keeping that investment grade.

Daniel Soyode (Distressed and HY Desk Analyst)

Perfect. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you would like to pose a question, please press the star key followed by the one key on your touch tone phone now. Please wait while we poll for questions. One moment, please. One moment, please. One moment, please. Our next question comes from Christina Ronac with HSBC. Please, Christina, go ahead.

Christina Ronac (Head of Emerging Markets Credit Research)

Hi. Hi. Thank you for the call. Quick question for me. Remind me on the Alagoas, I know it's a big payment for 2023, and if you've done, you're almost pretty much done. Remind me for 2023, is this gonna be an outflow about BRL 4.9 billion? Thank you.

Pedro Freitas (CFO)

Hi, Christina. The expectation is BRL 4.2 billion for this year. The remainder will be somewhere around BRL 1.9 billion, something like that. Sorry, BRL 2.4 billion. Rosana is correcting me here. It's BRL 4.2 billion for this year and BRL 2.4 billion for the following years going forward.

Christina Ronac (Head of Emerging Markets Credit Research)

and just to clarify, after... The $2.4 for 2024, that should be then for 2025 would be 0?

Pedro Freitas (CFO)

No, no. It's $4.2 for 2023, and then for the remainder of the program, in total $2.4, which should be spread between two or three years.

Christina Ronac (Head of Emerging Markets Credit Research)

Got it. Thank you so much.

Pedro Freitas (CFO)

Important to remember that, we're still in discussion with authorities in the city of Maceió, right? These numbers can change.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Bruno Figueiredo with Veritas Bank. Please, Bruno, go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hi. Thanks for the question. I would like to know more about the addition that was made to the Alagoas event. Thank you.

Pedro Freitas (CFO)

In the last quarter of last year, we didn't have any significant changes. I mean, we had really a reduction in the provision because of, I mean, the continuation of the payouts to the people that live in the area. In the gross provision, there was a slight adjustment of about BRL 100 million, while we paid BRL 720 million. These BRL 100 million, I mean, it's a lot of different things in there. I mean, it's adjustments in the value of the homes. It's also changes in the technical approach to closing down some of the wells. It's a mixed bag of several different things.

Small adjustments upwards, downwards, that the net of that is about BRL 100 million in the gross provision. Again, the total provision is coming down as we pay people in Alagoas. It's also important to mention that with all the settlements we have and with the progression of the programs, the risks and uncertainties have been reduced very materially. We see clearly a reduction of uncertainties related to the event. Be it regarding the settlements we did, be it around the implementation of the actions that we have agreed to. I think the situation today is much more favorable.

I think the big point is now for us to deliver the program for this year, especially, the BRL 4.2 billion that I mentioned, in Christina's question that is expected for this year.

Speaker 10

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you would like to pose a question, please press the star key followed by the one key on your touch tone phone now. Please hold while we poll for questions. One moment, please. One moment, please. One moment, please. One moment, please. One moment, please. One moment, please. Not being further questions, this concludes today's conference and today's question and answer session. I would like to invite the company to proceed with its closing statements. Please go ahead.

Pedro Freitas (CFO)

We have here Roberto Bischoff, our CEO, who will make the final remarks.

Roberto Bischoff (CEO)

Hi everybody. I want to thank you everyone for participating today in our earnings calls. I will leave you now with some comments. On the petrochemical scenario 2022, we saw spreads for petrochemical and chemical products in the international market very much affected by global supply demand dynamics. Various factors contributed to weaker demand, such as Pedro mentioned, zero-COVID measures that pressured China's economic growth and uncertainties regarding scenario in U.S. and Europe. We also observe higher supply of products with new PE and PP capacity coming online in U.S. and in China. These effects combine and put pressure on petrochemical and chemical spreads in the international market, especially during the second half of 2022 of the year.

Here, I should reinforce that we are maintaining our commitment to cost discipline and have implemented actions to cut costs, prioritize investments, and optimize cash preservation. These actions, combining with our diversified portfolio in terms of products and geographies, let us deliver cash flow of BRL 3 billion in the year, even in this tough scenario. For 2023, we continue to see a volatile external scenario, but with positive signs of higher levels of demand, especially with the reopening of China. The pace of China's reopening will be one of the main factors in the recovery of spreads in the international market and the resumption of an upcycle.

In this scenario, we are prioritizing actions to optimize and maximize the operations of our industrial assets to capture sales opportunities and synergies across our business, given our global footprint and maintain cost discipline by reducing fixed and variable costs and implementing the Transform for Value program. We also continue to advance in implementing our strategy for 2030 by prioritizing the execution of investments in high value projects that are aligned with our growth avenues in traditional renewables and recycling businesses. In closing, once again, I want to thank you, all our shareholders, investors and stakeholders for their trust and for participating in our earning calls. I hope to see you again in May when we'll be reporting our results for the first quarter of the year. Thank you very much.