Boise Cascade Company - Q2 2023
August 1, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good morning. My name is Michelle, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Boise Cascade Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer period. To ask a question during this session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will hear an automated message advising you that your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. It is now my pleasure to introduce you to Kelly Hibbs, Senior Vice President, CFO, and Treasurer, Boise Cascade. Mr. Hibbs, you may begin your conference.
Kelly Hibbs (SVP, CFO, and Treasurer)
Thank you, Michelle. Good morning, everyone. I would like to welcome you to Boise Cascade Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call and Business Update. Joining me on today's call are Nate Jorgensen, our CEO; Mike Brown, Head of our Wood Products Operations; and Jeff Strom, Head of our Building Materials Distribution Operations. Turning to slide two. This call will contain forward-looking statements. Please review the warning statements in our press release, on the presentation slides, and in our filings with the SEC regarding the risks associated with these forward-looking statements. Please note that the appendix includes reconciliations from our GAAP net income to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA and segment income to segment EBITDA. I will now turn the call over to Nate.
Nate Jorgensen (CEO)
Thanks, Kelly. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our earnings call today. On slide number three. Both of our businesses again delivered strong financial results as associates across the company continued to look to execute at a very high level and the market proved to be resilient despite ongoing economic uncertainties. Our consolidated second quarter sales of $1.8 billion were down 20% from second quarter 2022. Our net income was $146.3 million or $3.67 per share compared to net income of $218.1 million or $5.49 per share than a year-ago quarter. Total U.S. housing starts and single-family housing starts declined 11% and 14% respectively compared to the prior-year quarter.
Wood products reported segment EBITDA of $127 million in the second quarter compared to $167.8 million in the year-ago quarter. The wood products team delivered very good financial results as EWP volumes rebounded sharply from first quarter levels. Building materials distribution reported segment EBITDA of $105.9 million on sales of $1.6 billion for the second quarter compared to $161 million of segment EBITDA on sales of $2.1 billion in comparative prior-year quarter. Substantially lower commodity product pricing negatively impacted BMD's year-over-year revenue comparison. However, BMD's volume results compared quite favorably to headline housing starts and gross profit, EBITDA margins were again strong.
Kelly will now walk through our financial results in more detail and provide an update on capital allocation, after which I'll provide our outlook before we take your questions. Kelly?
Kelly Hibbs (SVP, CFO, and Treasurer)
Thank you, Nate. Wood products sales in the second quarter, including sales to our distribution segment were $530.3 million compared to $536 million in second quarter 2022. As Nate mentioned, wood products reported segment EBITDA of $127 million, down from EBITDA of $167.8 million reported in the year-ago quarter. The decrease in segment EBITDA was due primarily to lower plywood sales prices. This decrease was offset partially by higher plywood sales volumes, higher EWP sales prices, and lower wood fiber costs. BMD sales in the quarter were $1.6 billion down 23% from second quarter 2022. BMD reported segment EBITDA of $105.9 million in second quarter compared to segment EBITDA of $161 million in the prior-year quarter.
The decline in segment EBITDA was driven by a gross margin decrease of $49.8 million, resulting from lower margins on EWP and general line products, offset partially by margin improvements on commodity products. Turning to slide five. Our second quarter sales volumes for I-joist were down 9%, while sales volumes for LVL were up 2% compared with second quarter 2022. On a sequential basis, volumes for I-joist and LVL increased by 63% and 29%, respectively, driven primarily by an increase in new single-family housing starts of 39%. Sequential pricing for I-joist and LVL was down 4% and 3%, respectively. Looking forward to the third quarter, our order files and market activity are healthy, new single-family starts will continue to be an important demand driver for EWP volumes.
On EWP pricing, we currently expect low single-digit sequential price declines in the third quarter. Turning to slide six. Our second quarter plywood sales volumes in wood products was 440 million feet compared to 281 million feet in second quarter 2022. Plywood sales volumes increased during the quarter as we shifted a higher proportion of our veneer into plywood production, given the change in demand for EWP. The increase in plywood sales volumes was also partially attributed to the acquisition of Coastal Plywood in July of last year, as well as downtime taken in 2022 to replace an existing dryer at our Chester, South Carolina, plywood and veneer facility. The $365 per thousand average plywood net sales price in second quarter was down 36% from second quarter 2022 and down 1% sequentially.
Thus far, in the third quarter of 2023, plywood price realizations are flat compared to our second quarter average. Moving to slides seven and eight. BMD's second quarter sales were $1.6 billion down 23% from second quarter 2022, driven by sales price and sales volume decreases of 22% and 1%, respectively. By product line, commodity sales decreased 36%, general line product sales decreased 8%, and sales of EWP decreased 21%. As previously mentioned, gross margin dollars decreased by $49.8 million in second quarter compared with the same quarter last year, resulting from lower margins on EWP and general line products, offset partially by margin improvements on commodity products. However, BMD's gross margin percentage was 15% up 110 basis points from the 13.9% reported in second quarter 2022.
The improvement on a margin percentage basis was driven by commodity products, as commodity prices were generally stable during 2023 compared with a declining price environment during 2022. BMD's EBITDA margin was 6.5% for the quarter, down from the 7.6% reported in the year-ago quarter, but up 90 basis points sequentially. Looking forward, BMD's sales pace thus far in third quarter 2023 remains strong, with our daily average sales on pace with second quarter levels. The proportion of BMD sales that are warehouse versus direct, the product mix between commodity, general line, and EWP, along with the trajectory of pricing across all product lines, will influence BMD's results. That said, we expect to report solid financial results again in the third quarter, with EBITDA margins comparable to levels achieved thus far in 2023. Moving to slides nine and 10.
These slides show the generally stable pricing environment for lumber and panel pricing during second quarter 2023, compared with noticeable decreases in the prior-year quarter. For further context, year-over-year second quarter average composite lumber and panel prices have declined by 50% and 40%, respectively. This sharp price deflation has had meaningful impacts on the portion of our sales related to commodity products. However, as we begin third quarter, both price composites have shown upward momentum. While future price volatility is likely, we will maintain our approach to having inventory on hand to support our customer base. I'm now on slide 11. We had capital expenditures of $68 million during the six months ended June 30th, 2023, with $19 million of spending in wood products and $49 million of spending in BMD.
In wood products, we continue to progress with our multi-year capacity expansion projects in the Southeast US, and are on track to hit our target LVL billet capacity growth of 5% by this year-end. In BMD, our execution of organic growth continues, including the recent startup of our Kansas City door shop and expected completion and startup of our Marion, Ohio, Greenfield expansion project by year-end. Not included in our 2023 capital spending range of $120 million-$140 million, is a robust pipeline of additional projects in both businesses that we are working and expect to announce in the coming quarters. In wood products, we are evaluating projects that would secure or further enhance our veneer-based strategy.
In BMD, the pipeline includes spending to solidify and/or expand our presence in existing markets and further our organic growth strategy in door assembly operations. In addition, our balance sheet allows us the ability to pursue growth via M&A, if appropriate opportunities arise that align with our strategy. Speaking to shareholder returns, we paid $133 million in regular and special dividends to shareholders during the six month ended June 30th, 2023. Last week, our board of directors approved a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share, payable on September 15th to shareholders of record as of September 1st. This represents, represents a $0.05 per share or 33% increase in our quarterly dividend. Our balance sheet remains very strong and our balanced approach to capital allocation is unchanged.
We will continue to invest in our existing asset base and organic growth projects, pursue M&A that aligns with our strategy, remain committed to our fixed dividend through the business cycle, and opportunistically return additional capital to shareholders as we deem appropriate via special dividends or share repurchases. I will turn it back over to Nate to discuss our business outlook.
Nate Jorgensen (CEO)
Thanks, Kelly. I'm on slide number 12. Housing starts in June 2023 were approximately $1.4 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. However, home affordability remains a challenge for consumers, and the Federal Reserve's ongoing actions in response to inflationary data and what impacts these actions have on future mortgage rates and the broader economy will influence the near-term demand environment. Uncertainty in the outlook for the back half of 2023 is reflected in the various industry forecasts for 2023 U.S. housing starts, which generally range from $1.3 million-$1.4 million units, compared with actual housing starts of $1.55 million in 2022, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Regarding home improvement spending, industry forecasts project continued moderation in year-over-year growth and renovation spending. Economic uncertainty may also negatively impact homeowners' further investment in their residences. Despite these near-term uncertainties, we believe the longer-term demand drivers for new residential construction and repair remodel activity continues to be favorable, supported by strong demographic trends, low home inventory, and the age of U.S. housing stock. As such, we'll remain clearly focused on the execution of our strategies and have great conviction around our investments to grow the company. Lastly, I want to express my gratitude to our associates, whose consistent focus, grit, and hard work, when coupled with our quality of our assets and the effectiveness of our business model, are the constant driver behind our success. I expect our team to again deliver solid financial results in the third quarter despite the softer economic backdrop.
Thank you for joining us today, for and your continued support and interest in Boise Cascade. We will welcome any questions at this time. Michelle, would you please open the phone lines?
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Again, if you have a question at this time, please press star one, one on your telephone. One moment while we compile our Q&A roster. Our first question is going to come from the line of Kurt Yinger with D.A. Davidson. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Kurt Yinger (SVP and Research Analyst)
Great. Thanks, and good morning, everyone.
Nate Jorgensen (CEO)
Morning, Kurt.
Kurt Yinger (SVP and Research Analyst)
Just, just wanted to start off on an EWP, really nice bounce back in volumes like you alluded to. Like, as you look at the performance relative to kind of the past two quarters, wondering if you have any thoughts around the impact of kind of underlying demand improvements versus maybe a bit of restocking? Based on the order file at this stage, how are you thinking about Q3 volumes versus Q2?
Mike Brown (Head of Wood Products Operations)
Morning, Kurt. Yes, Mike, thanks very much for the question. As we think about the coming quarter, at this point in time, we're envisaging a quarter pretty much like the last quarter. Our order file is quite strong, and our inventories are in pretty good condition, and we're operating not at maximum capacity, but at very high levels. I think as we move through Q3, we should see a quarter pretty much like the last quarter.
Kurt Yinger (SVP and Research Analyst)
Got it. Thanks for that, Mike. I guess, just given some of the big swings in I-joist, can you maybe talk about what you're seeing or hearing, in terms of product sub-substitution, whether it's solid sawn lumber or, or open web trusses for floor applications?
Mike Brown (Head of Wood Products Operations)
Yeah, Kurt. My comment would be basically the following: we've seen obviously a significant, significant change both in both directions over time. Previously, let's say last year, when there was a lack of availability of I-joist because really we were on allocation, there was substitution going on pretty much by any product that builders could get. As we've sort of moved through the first half of this year, I think you've seen some challenges with other products availability, not the least of which is open web trusses. Because of their longer lead times, that's actually helped our I-joist business. That's sort of a bit of a fluid situation, depending on demand and supply.
Nate Jorgensen (CEO)
Hey, Kurt, it's Nate. Maybe just one other data point that, as we have a chance to spend time with builders, their focus on cycle times is very high. As you think about, you know, what, what problems I-joist and EWP solve on the job site, it takes, it adds speed and simplicity to the job site and helps reduce cycle time. I think in, in terms of where the builders want to go, where they need to go in terms of reducing cycle times, I-joist, EWP are very much part of that answer. I think, as Mike described, I think we're seeing some benefit of that as a result.
Kurt Yinger (SVP and Research Analyst)
Got it. Okay, that makes sense. Then just lastly on, on BMD, Jeff, hoping you could talk about what you're seeing in terms of customer appetite to replenish inventories across your different product categories, and whether there's anything from a competitive perspective that you think could, you know, knock gross margins off the levels we've seen here through the first half.
Jeff Strom (Head of Building Materials Distribution)
I, I would, I would say overall, as, as confidence grew and as we had a little bit of a commodity run in there, you know, the inventory started to build a little bit. People started taking some small positions, but nothing like in the past. I'd tell you that people are still really relying very heavily on out-of-warehouse shipments, and, and that's the work we're going to continue to do this out. There's, you know, we're going to expect some seasonality this year, which we haven't seen in a long time. Overall, I think the reliance is going to be out of warehouse, and people are not building inventories.
Kurt Yinger (SVP and Research Analyst)
Got it. Okay, thanks for that, and good luck here in Q3, guys.
Nate Jorgensen (CEO)
Thanks, Kurt.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question is going to come from the line of Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Susan Maklari (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions.
Nate Jorgensen (CEO)
Hey, Sue.
Mike Brown (Head of Wood Products Operations)
Hey, Sue.
Susan Maklari (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
My first question is, you know, you, you mentioned in your commentary that you are thinking about perhaps carrying a bit more inventory as you look to sort of support the service levels in the field. Can you talk a bit about how you manage or balance any sort of risk in this environment of carrying more volumes relative to wanting to be sure that, you know, you can support your, your end-market customers?
Nate Jorgensen (CEO)
Yeah, Sue, it's Nate. Maybe just, I, I think in terms of our commitment to both to our suppliers and our customers, is to make sure we are in stock and have inventory and to serve their needs, both in terms of, you know, bulk as well as units, job packs, and pieces. As we look at, you know, kind of the, our inventory footprint and what's going to be required, we work closely with our customers in terms of their expectations and what their needs are going to be as we move through the quarter and through the year.
Work closely with our, our manufacturing supplier partners as well, to make sure we have really good understanding of where they're at in their production plans, as well as some of the things that they're trying to do in terms of introducing new products as well. That, that's part of our, you know, our thinking. But ultimately, what we've said all along is that we want to put our balance sheet to work for the benefit of both our customers and suppliers, and, and we will be in stock. And, and, to me, that's an important part of who we are and what's created, I think, success and confidence with our customer and supplier partners, and that'll remain certainly part of our game plan as we finish off 2023 and head into 2024.
Susan Maklari (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Yeah. Okay, that's helpful. You know, I guess, when you think about the restocking that is generally happening across building product categories, you know, through the spring into the early parts of the summer, would you say that there's any dispersion or differences as you think about products that might be earlier cycle, as you think about the macro in housing relative to later cycle in there? Just any distinctions or nuances perhaps that you'd call out in that?
Nate Jorgensen (CEO)
Yes, Susan, it's Nate again. I, I would say, you know, there, there's gonna be always some variability, maybe by product and even by geography. Part of that geography is, is how that geography is served. If it's, if it's truckload served or rail served, sometimes it'll have a, you know, different element in terms of, you know, what that natural inventory needs to be. But, but I, I think at this point, and Jeff described it well, I think we're seeing a more normal seasonality expectation as we go through the course of this year. I don't think there's any, you know, concern or anxiety by our customers. They're simply gonna be managing their working capital as they traditionally would manage their working capital.
I think that's gonna put more dependence on BMD in terms of those auto warehouse services, which we're excited to support. Nothing, Sue, that would represent in terms of kind of early warning signs or things that we're looking at. I think it's ultimately staying close to our customers and suppliers, and then we'll continue to work from there.
Susan Maklari (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Yeah. Okay. Then I just wanna squeeze one more in. As you think about your own working capital and, you know, the investments that you're making in the business for this year, anything that you can help quantify there in terms of perhaps changes in the working capital or, or cash flow dynamics that we should be thinking about?
Kelly Hibbs (SVP, CFO, and Treasurer)
Hey, Sue, this is Kelly. Yeah, for sure, we have, you know, made some purposeful investments. I mean, think about Kansas City door shop, Houston door shop, you know, expanding some properties in BMD in a handful of geographies. Probably nothing I would specifically call out other than to say, you know, certainly when you have a startup, i.e., a door shop startup, you're gonna be pretty heavy on inventory because you need to get up, you need to get up and you need to get ramped.
But I would say, really, I, I think what we've seen over time in terms of how our, how our inventory moves and how our receivables move, certainly as we get into seasonal- seasonally weaker periods in the fourth quarter, I, I don't, I don't see big enough-- I don't see that we've made enough changes that I would really give you any different guidance than what we've typically done in terms of swings.
Susan Maklari (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. All right. That, that's helpful, Kelly. Thank you.
Kelly Hibbs (SVP, CFO, and Treasurer)
Sure.
Operator (participant)
Thank you, and one moment for our next question. Our next question is gonna come from the line of George Staphos with Bank of America Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
George Staphos (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Thanks so much. Hi, everybody. Good morning. Thanks for the details and, and congratulations on, on the performance. Had a, a few sort of modeling, shorter term questions and a couple of longer term ones. First of all, you know, in terms of BMD margins, which once again, were certainly, you know, well ahead of our expectations, the outlook for the year and, and being similar to the, to the-- what you've seen in the first half of the year, Kelly, not trying to draw too fine a point on it, but is that more a reflection of what you've seen year to date or what we saw out of, out of 2Q?
Relatedly, what do you think, recognizing a lot of it's gonna be driven by demand and pricing, in the world we're in right now, is a 6%, 6.5% margin normal for BMD?
Kelly Hibbs (SVP, CFO, and Treasurer)
Yeah. I'll take the first part of that question, then maybe I'll kick it to Nate to build on my comment. So what we had in our speaking points there, George, was really specific to the third quarter in terms of what our sales pace is so far through July, and then just reminded folks in terms of kind of the, how the mix, whether that's mixed by product or warehouse versus direct, and those sorts of things that can move our margin profile.
What we did guide there softly for the third quarter was that we gave you some guidance on sales pace for the third quarter so far, and then, EBITDA margin that, you know, that today we think today would probably end up towards the top end of the range that we saw in second quarter. In terms of longer term, let me, let me kick that question to Nate.
Nate Jorgensen (CEO)
Hey, George. Yeah, maybe just on the longer term basis. I think as Kelly described, and even in our comments, I mean, there's lots of puts and takes in terms of kind of the, the, the here and now on, on what that looks like. To, to be clear, obviously, we, our, our goal and commitment is how do we continue to grow that performance over time. I think we've been, you know, in terms of our investments, in our facilities, how we expand our locations, our products and services, where we've been able to add those, including, obviously expanding our door shops, to me, George, it's, it's all consistent with, again, how do we make sure we're continuing to kind of grow that earnings profile in BMD.
At any moment in time, there's, again, as you know, a lot of moving parts to that, but in terms of kind of the trend and how we're thinking about it as a company in terms of the long-term view, we're, we're investing and, and we feel really good about our ability to execute to that new standard, higher standard.
George Staphos (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Thanks, Nate. One thing, I wanted to ask on, on sales velocity in 2Q, was it where you expected it to be in BMD, or did it surprise to the upside? If so, in particular, where, would there have been any variances? If you'd mentioned earlier in the call, I apologize. I was a little bit late joining because of another conference call.
Kelly Hibbs (SVP, CFO, and Treasurer)
Yeah, no, no, you're fine, George. I'll, I'll take that and then maybe see if Jeff has any extra color to add. I, I think, you know, in our, in our comments, we've, we've all talked about the resiliency of the market being, you know, somewhat better than we would have expected, and that, and that did, that did play out, you know, through the second quarter.
Sales activity, you know, did continue to ramp as we made our way through the second quarter. Anything else you'd add, Jeff?
Jeff Strom (Head of Building Materials Distribution)
I, I would say on the general line piece, particularly, our, our volumes were very good and very strong, and having the inventory available and ready to go really played into our hands, played well for us.
George Staphos (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Thanks for that, Jeff. Two last ones from me, I'll turn them over. One, Well, said differently, you know, your distribution model and two-step, are there certain product categories that you think you're gaining share in? Are there certain product categories that work particularly well given the environment that we're in, through BMD? Then just a real quickie on EWP. Again, performance has been great in Wood. We're not trying to pick at anything, the slight sequential drop in pricing, I think you called out, is that just a function of lagged changes or something else? Thanks, guys. I'll turn it over.
Nate Jorgensen (CEO)
Maybe I'll-- Let me start, George, on the kind of the, the, the question for BMD, and then I'll hand it over to Mike. I, I, I would say, you know, in, in terms of, you know, kind of what, what BMD, on, you know, risk profile relative to products and any kind of trends there, I, I, we, we don't see it. I think as our key suppliers, they continue to add new products and new services. So, in many respects, their SKUs get more complex, and more abundant, which is great. But that puts more, I think, you know, burden and really, frankly, opportunity for us in BMD to serve our customers with that more complex product line and service.
To me, when I look at some of our key partners, you know, that, that is part of their story. I think they were a little bit hesitant over the last couple of years, George, just given we were in a pandemic, and their ability to introduce new products was not great, especially in an environment where, where things were short, you know, in terms of availability. We expect that, you know, kind of trend to pick up in terms of, again, new products, new services, and we think that, again, is incredibly supportive of BMD. Maybe the other thing, again, before I turn it over to Mike, is that customers continue to focus on their working capital.
As they think about, you know, kind of the seasonality, BMD is incredibly well positioned to serve and support our customers and suppliers as they, you know, kind of pivot and transition through the normal seasonality that we would expect as we move forward. Again, we feel really good about the franchise and, and how we're set up.
George Staphos (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Are your suppliers asking you to take more volume than they were, say, a quarter or 2 quarters ago, just in general?
Jeff Strom (Head of Building Materials Distribution)
No, I, I, I don't think so.
George Staphos (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Any kind of trend like that?
Jeff Strom (Head of Building Materials Distribution)
I think they know.
George Staphos (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay.
Jeff Strom (Head of Building Materials Distribution)
I think they're very well aware that we're going to buy to our sales base.
George Staphos (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Got it. Thank you, Jeff. I'm sorry.
Nate Jorgensen (CEO)
I think, yeah, George, sorry. Then, Mike, on just maybe the EWP question on kind of pricing and-
Mike Brown (Head of Wood Products Operations)
Yep.
Nate Jorgensen (CEO)
what we're seeing and expecting there.
Mike Brown (Head of Wood Products Operations)
Yeah, sure. Yeah, good day, George.
George Staphos (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Hi.
Mike Brown (Head of Wood Products Operations)
EWP pricing, yes, that, that modest decline is probably best explained as follows: You know, the Boise Cascade value proposition for EWP includes a variety of different components. You know, our field services, our sourcing services, our software, and of course, market competitive pricing. There are others in, in this particular area, other players that, that don't necessarily bring all those components to the market and rely more on price. We've had to, on occasions, address where we thought necessary, some of the pricing that we saw, saw in certain geographies. You know, going forward, we're going to continue to do what we've been doing. We're going to focus on our value proposition, and if there are geographies where price is the primary determinant, then we will evaluate whether we need to do anything.
You, you can see that there was a quite modest decline in pricing, and will remain to be seen whether that's the case in the coming quarter.
George Staphos (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Thank you, Mike.
Operator (participant)
Thank you, and one moment for our next question, please. Our next question is gonna come from the line of Mike Roxland with Truist. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Mike Roxland (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks, Nate, Kelly, Mike, and Jeff, appreciate the time tonight, and congrats on a strong quarter.
Nate Jorgensen (CEO)
Thanks, Mike.
Mike Roxland (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Just one quick one for me to begin to start. Just can you comment. I may have missed it as well, because juggling a number of earnings calls today, so I do apologize for this. If you comment on your wood products order files, where do they stand today versus 1Q? If you could also just comment, comment on maybe your operating rate in EWP and how that changed in 2Q versus 1Q. I heard the comment that you're still not running full, but trying to get a sense of where you operate in EWP, 2Q versus earlier in the year.
Mike Brown (Head of Wood Products Operations)
Yeah, Mike. Yep, I'll, I'll give you those, those numbers. If you think about the second question first, the operating rate, I would say earlier in the year, Q1 is sort of a general statement, and it was a little bit different by geography, this is sort of an overarching comment. We were probably running around 60% odd, okay, of our capacity. You move into Q2, and particularly in the West, there was a quite significant increase in demand, while the South had been strong earlier in the year and continues to be, you know, quite strong. Our operating rate now, I'd say, is, is around 80% odd.
That's, I think, where we'll probably stay for a while, and we'll have to see what happens with, you know, the demand situation, what have you, as we move through this, you know, next quarter. As it relates to order files, I, we'll start with EWP, but I'll also address plywood. EWP order files were very strong to begin with in Q1 in the Southeast, and maybe not quite so strong in the West. Then early in Q2, the West really started to take off, you know, with the changes in the climatic conditions in California in particular.
Both the West and the South were quite strong in Q2, and we have very strong order files today, where I'll say that the actions we took earlier in the year to make sure that we had enough people to run our operations, as well as the $500 million that we spent last year to bring on additional veneer supply, has allowed us to, you know, to keep our order files and our lead times really quite short relative to other players in our particular space. Our order files are strong, and our lead times, while they're a little bit longer than they are normally, they're, yeah, probably moved out roughly a week or so compared to what I'd call a normal lead time. That's on EWP.
As it relates to, to plywood, yes, we've produced more plywood, as Kelly pointed out. We've been moving a lot of plywood into the system, and our order files as, as sort of typical for this time of the year, are several weeks in front of us for plywood, and they continue to be sort of in that, that position.
Mike Roxland (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Excellent. That's, it's great. Thank you for the call there, Mike. Just one quick follow-up on that. As for, for order files and EWP, I know we're only a month into the third quarter, has there been any acceleration from 2Q into 3Q?
Mike Brown (Head of Wood Products Operations)
No. Yeah, that's a real good question, Mike. I think it sort of works like this: We're sort of still, you know, after one month of this particular quarter, I'd say we're still in, like, the height of the building season.
Mike Roxland (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Yep.
Mike Brown (Head of Wood Products Operations)
We're going to go into August and September. I think Jeff might have mentioned earlier on, you know, the later we get into the year, seasonality starts to become a thing, particularly in our, you know, our business. At the moment, I, I don't see a change, really much of a change in either direction, but I think we need to watch that as we sort of move through the quarter. I would expect if things go back to normal, whatever that quickly means these days, by the end of the quarter, we'll see some change to the, you know, to the normal downside, which is just the seasonality that happens towards the end of the third quarter and start of fourth quarter.
Mike Roxland (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. Very helpful. Then just one final question on, on just wood products in general. You know, you guys, from a cost perspective, done a fantastic job of closing high costs, you know, facilities, streamlining the, the cost structure of wood products. Can you just comment on any other initiatives you're working on to further improve margins? Should we expect that EBITDA, you know, that a normalized EBITDA margin, could be, you know, 20% plus for that business on a go-forward basis?
Mike Brown (Head of Wood Products Operations)
Well, I'll have a crack at the first part, and then I'll let my capable CFO maybe address the second part of that question. Yeah, we're always working on it, as you said, Mike, and Kelly kind of, sort of alluded to this a little bit in his commentary. You know, we've been at, I'll say, machine center replacement now for more than a decade. We have a program of capital expenditures where we're replacing old machine centers with new machine centers. That assists us in both better costs overall, in some cases, because there are, you know, just they're more efficient in terms of the output per unit time, and sometimes because there are less people involved in those machine centers. We also get an uptick sometimes in volume.
We have a plan moving forward to continue to replace old machine centers. It's sort of never ending in wood products, but I anticipate over the coming, you know, three, four, five years, we, we will continue to invest in replacing old machine centers, and that will give us, you know, hopefully, an improvement in our cost structure as we move forward. And I'm sure Kelly has some commentary on the second component.
Kelly Hibbs (SVP, CFO, and Treasurer)
Yeah, on the second component, Mike, I mean, certainly, you, you, you can see and you can hear what the strategy and the focus has been for a long time in wood products, which is really to grow EWP. As we've spoken before, the, the constraint was veneer historically, and we've cleared that constraint with the acquisitions we did last year. So we can continue to execute upon our strategy. You know, EWP, higher margin, more stably priced product, and that fits right into our strategy. Our expectations are that we'll continue to invest in that business, and to Mike, and to Mike's point, continue to focus on cost and efficiency. We, we do want that, that trend to look better and the margin performance to be better than it was historically.
Mike Roxland (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you very much for all the color. Good luck in the second half.
Kelly Hibbs (SVP, CFO, and Treasurer)
Thanks, Mike.
Mike Brown (Head of Wood Products Operations)
Thanks, Mike, bye.
Operator (participant)
One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Ketan Mamtora with BMO. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Ketan Mamtora (Director of Building Products Equity Research)
Thank you. Good morning, Nate, Kelly. Maybe first question, to start with, with EWP. Kelly, any way to quantify the impact of higher OSB costs, you know, in Q3, so, so far as in, you know, the EWP side is concerned?
Kelly Hibbs (SVP, CFO, and Treasurer)
Yes. As I think we've spoken to before, Ketan, we do. The mechanisms we have in terms of how we, our supplied OSB, it's kind of a rolling average concept that we pay. Yes, to the extent that OSB comes up and, you know, I think you could probably use kind of North Central in terms of to kind of as the index. Now, our the OSB that we use for web stock is, you know, a pretty specific grade we have produced to meet the strength requirements we have. You could use that as the trend in terms of, where that price goes, you can kind of use that as a metric to what the cost increase would be. Again, there, there's going to be a lag.
Ketan Mamtora (Director of Building Products Equity Research)
Got it. And Kelly, typically, what is a good proxy to think about as, as lag? Is it one month? Is it two months?
Kelly Hibbs (SVP, CFO, and Treasurer)
Yeah, it's, it's, it's a quarter, Ketan, because it is kind of that 13-week average concept that we have.
Ketan Mamtora (Director of Building Products Equity Research)
Got it. That's that's helpful. Got it. No, that's helpful. Switching to, you know, to capital allocation. Obviously, the balance sheet is in a very strong shape. You are sitting on substantial net cash. You know, curious as you navigate through an uncertain economic environment, one, you know, either Nate or Kelly, how do you think about how much cash you should have on the balance sheet? You know, as you think about deployment, you know, whether it's M&A, historically, you've preferred kind of special dividend, you know, can you talk to kind of M&A pipeline, or, or sort of, you know, approach to share repurchases here?
Kelly Hibbs (SVP, CFO, and Treasurer)
You know, that's a, a big broad question around capital allocation. Let me, let me try to hit it this way, Ketan. You heard my prepared remarks in terms of how we think about capital allocation, and that has not changed in terms of how we think about it. Your, your comments around having a, a strong balance sheet, that's true, and, and we're, we're very happy to have that and, and the flexibility and the optionality that, that that gives us. You know, we did reference a, a, a robust, a robust pipeline of capital projects ahead of us in both, in both wood products and some of the things that Mike spoke about, and then some additional opportunities in BMD, you know, organic opportunities, you know, maybe some potential additional new markets for door shops.
We, we have some lease facilities that potentially we can buy out those leases. We have a few things ahead of us that we might be looking at relocating and expanding our presence in existing markets. All that said, we do really have a, a pretty meaningful pipeline ahead of us here over the next several quarters. As we kind of look from now till the end of the year, there'll be a couple things we think about when we have our next conversation with our board, as we think about what additional returns to shareholders we may want to consider, you know, in October or later in the year.
The pace and the execution and our ability to complete those organic growth projects that I spoke to, as well as what the market conditions look like when we get to that next conversation with our board in October, all those things will factor into what we want to consider as it relates to that next step, if any, on additional shareholder returns before we, before we close 2023.
Ketan Mamtora (Director of Building Products Equity Research)
Got it. That's very helpful. I'll jump back in the queue. Good luck in the second half.
Kelly Hibbs (SVP, CFO, and Treasurer)
Thanks. Thanks, Ketan.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question is going to come from the line of Reuben Garner with The Benchmark Company. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Reuben Garner (Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Congrats on the strong quarter.
Kelly Hibbs (SVP, CFO, and Treasurer)
Thanks, Reuben.
Reuben Garner (Equity Research Analyst)
First, a follow-up to the, the, an earlier question on the, the BMD margins, kind of longer term. You guys know I, I like to ask this question every quarter, but I, I, looking for maybe some clarity on a couple things. Is there any way you could tell us what the mix of your kind of warehouse versus direct business is today versus maybe what it was in 2018, 2019, or, you know, prior to, to COVID? And is there any risk that like when things do officially normalize and your customers feel good again, that you've got a margin kind of headwind, even if, even if demand is good because you're kind of going back to maybe a lower margin business?
Kelly Hibbs (SVP, CFO, and Treasurer)
Yeah, good question, and we'd be disappointed if you didn't ask that question, Reuben. In terms of the mix between warehouse and direct, I would say traditionally, when, you know, when there's confidence in the market and there's not concern around forward pricing and inventory risk, I would say warehouse, you know, traditionally, maybe is probably in the range of, call it, you know, 65% or so of the mix, 65%-70%. Whereas today, you know, we're probably, you know, we're probably more like in the 70%-75% range. Again, that just comes back to the laser focus downstream on working capital and concern around inventory risk.
Frankly, the ability, the availability of supply today, people can get product, and so they, you know, they don't, they don't feel the need to go long, and they don't want to take the risk with going long. That's, that's how I'd frame it up in terms of the mix. You're exactly right. That does, you know, we do have higher margins on warehouse, and so if we do get, you know, shift back to a, to a, to a market where there is a higher percentage of direct, that, that would negatively impact our margin profile.
Nate Jorgensen (CEO)
Maybe the other thing, Reuben, it's Nate, just to add is, again, as we had commented earlier, if you think about our suppliers, and they're adding new products and services and that complexity, so that generally creates a, maybe a more of a auto warehouse opportunity, as opposed to, you know, customers taking, you know, bulk quantities of some of those new products and services. Again, it's not a question of the customers not having the balance sheet to do it. It's simply their, you know, their inventory footprint and really, having more reliance and dependence on BMD, which is again, exactly what we do. Again, that new product and new services, I think is going to be part of the equation going forward. The more complexity, the more additions there, then I think the dependence on BMD becomes more obvious as well.
Reuben Garner (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, great. You know, the uncertainty about forward pricing, I mean, is that in all product categories? I mean, we've kind of already seen it on the commodity front. At least it, it appears it's, it's bottomed out. Is the, is the concern EWP? Is the concern general line products? Is it just everything that you think the market or, or your customer base thinks that there's price risk to the downside? I guess, why, why hasn't that been reduced, just given how strong things have been to date, even in a, you know, quote, unquote, "softer period?
Kelly Hibbs (SVP, CFO, and Treasurer)
I guess, I, I guess I'll start and then invite Jeff or Nate to add color if they want to. If you break it into the three buckets, commodity, general line, and EWP. Commodity, certainly it's, it's round-tripped and, and reverted, you know, not all the way back to maybe what historical averages are. To your point, there is less downside risk, it would appear, than what we've, you know, seen in recent, recent quarters and recent last couple of years. In EWP, you know, we are, as we've alluded to, we are continuing to experience some level of price erosion. You know, it's a competitive marketplace, and so we're responding where we think is appropriate.
General line pricing has, has generally held up, I would say there are some categories like doors, for example, that's come off some, there are, there are deflationary risks, certainly, for in the general line product category. I think Jeff's gonna add a little more color here.
Jeff Strom (Head of Building Materials Distribution)
Hey, Reuben, on, on the general line, it, it really feels solid right now, except in a couple areas. Those areas would be if you, if you look at what scrap metal is doing, if you look at futures of metal, you know, that would be the one area that's a concern. I would tell you that anything that really gets imported in a container, just because of the, the massive decrease in ocean freight that we've experienced, if you have something on the ground and you know you have replacement coming, you're, you're trying to move that off pretty quickly. Those would be the big areas of concern.
Reuben Garner (Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. Thanks, guys. Congrats again on the results and good luck going through the rest of the year.
Kelly Hibbs (SVP, CFO, and Treasurer)
Thanks, Reuben.
Operator (participant)
Thank you, and one moment for our next question. Our next question is a follow-up question from Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Susan Maklari (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks for fitting me in again. I, I just have two things that I wanted to follow up on. The, the first is that in, in response to one of the previous questions, I think Mike mentioned that, you know, there's the potential for some seasonality as you think about the back half and as we get into the fourth quarter.
I guess when you, when you consider what's going on on the ground and the builders, committed to putting starts out through the third quarter and looking to have that inventory on hand as we go into the, the 2024 selling season, is there any potential you think that we actually sort of skirt some of that seasonality or sort of see a more muted sort of response to it as, as you think about the end of the year and, and maybe even going into the early parts of next year?
Kelly Hibbs (SVP, CFO, and Treasurer)
Yeah, good question. This is Kelly. Yeah, to, to your point, you know, some of our messaging, you know, we, we could be, you know, we could be somewhat conservative compared to what some others think. I guess we'll, we'll see how this plays out for the balance of the year. You know, August can be very hot, as we know, and that can impact job sites. Then we'll, we'll see what the winter brings in the fourth quarter. I think, you know, you, you got that normal industry stuff, and then we'll see how the macro environment plays out around monetary policy.
Susan Maklari (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay.
Jeff Strom (Head of Building Materials Distribution)
I'd add one thing to that, that we're hearing loud and clear from some dealers. There was a really, really late start in certain markets this year due to weather. In those markets, they're a little bit more confident about what could be going on in the fourth quarter than in others.
Susan Maklari (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Yeah, it also sounds like there could be some incremental delays, too, just because of the intense heat that we've seen in some markets as well. Feels like that's weather's a factor all around. My, my other question is thinking about plywood capacity. When you think about the demand that's coming through on EWP and your need for veneer, how are you thinking about the capacity in plywood and, and sort of balancing these things out?
Mike Brown (Head of Wood Products Operations)
The way we look at it, Sue, is, you know, because we run this integrated model, which is a little bit different to some others, you know, in the, in the perfect situation, we would be able to have all our stress-rated veneers, so that's the veneer that goes into EWP, being used in EWP because of the demand profile in that particular product group. That's really not the case just at the moment. If EWP demand continues to be strong or picks up, you know, in, in theory, over time, we would have less plywood production because some of the veneer that might go into, excuse me, into plywood today would be redirected into EWP.
I think Kelly mentioned earlier on, you know, our, our, our focus is looking to put the, the veneer into its highest and best use. You know, as we move forward, obviously, clearly compared to a couple of years ago, we will have, we'll have more total plywood production simply because of the acquisition. The other, the other item you might like to think about is, if you look at the imports of Brazilian plywood, say, this year compared to the same time last year, they're down quite dramatically. The overall situation is that if my math is approximately correct, we have the equivalent of about 300 million feet less plywood coming in from Brazil last quarter compared to the same quarter last year.
That, that's a good thing from the plywood perspective, because that's wood that doesn't have to go somewhere, and that, that supports the, the local plywood market. You know, plywood could be a little bit stronger going forward than maybe historically because of that, if nothing else.
Susan Maklari (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Yeah. Okay. Thanks for the color, and good luck with everything.
Kelly Hibbs (SVP, CFO, and Treasurer)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time, and I would like to turn the conference back over to Nate Jorgensen for any further remarks.
Nate Jorgensen (CEO)
Thanks, Michelle. We appreciate everyone, joining us this morning for our update. Thank you for your continuing interest and support of Boise Cascade. Please be safe and be well. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
This concludes your conference today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.