Boise Cascade Company - Earnings Call - Q3 2020
November 2, 2020
Transcript
Speaker 0
Good morning. My name is Chris, and I'll be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Boise Cascades Third Quarter twenty twenty Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer period.
Questions will be taken in the order they are received. Before we begin, I remind you that this call may contain forward looking statements about the company's future business prospects and anticipated financial performance. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, and the company undertakes no duty to update them. Although these statements reflect management's expectations today, they are subject to a number of business risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in this call.
For a discussion of the factors that may cause actual results to differ from the results anticipated, please refer to Boise Cascade's recent filings with the SEC. It is now my pleasure to introduce you to Wayne Rancourt, Executive Vice President, CFO and Treasurer, Boise Cascade. Mr. Rancourt, you may begin your conference.
Speaker 1
Thank you, Chris. Good morning, everyone. I'd like to welcome you to Boise Cascade's third quarter twenty twenty earnings call and business update. Joining me on today's call are Nate Jorgensen, our CEO Mike Brown, Head of our Wood Products Operations and Nick Stokes, Head of our Building Materials Distribution Operations. Turning to slide two, I would point out the information regarding our forward looking statements.
The appendix of the presentation includes reconciliations from our GAAP net income to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA and segment income to segment EBITDA. I will now turn the call over to Nate.
Speaker 2
Thanks, Wayne. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on our earnings call today. I'm on Slide number three. Our third quarter sales of $1,600,000,000 were up 25% from the third quarter of twenty nineteen.
Our net income was $103,200,000 or $2.61 per share compared to the net income of $27,200,000 or $0.69 per share in the year ago quarter. Total U. S. Housing starts increased 11% compared to the same period last year. Single family housing starts, the primary driver of our sales volume, increased 17%.
Given the extraordinary market conditions caused by an ongoing imbalance between industry supply and end product demand for wood based commodities, both businesses delivered outstanding operating and financial results during the period. Our Wood Products manufacturing business reported segment income of $66,000,000 in the third quarter compared to $15,600,000 in the year ago quarter. Wood Products continued to focus on establishing pre COVID-nineteen manufacturing production levels as product demand exceeded supply during the third quarter. Our Building Materials Distribution business reported segment income of $107,900,000 on sales of $1,400,000,000 for the third quarter compared to $38,700,000 of segment income on sales of $1,100,000,000 in the comparative prior year quarter. B and D sales and income were robust and our long term strategy and commitment to consistently carry a broad base of in stock products supported by high service levels and a solid financial position continue to deliver value to our vendor and customer partners in the supply chain as well as our shareholders.
Wayne will walk through the financial results in more detail and then I'll come back to provide our outlook before we take your questions. Wayne?
Speaker 1
Thank you, Nate. I'm on slide four. Wood Products sales in the third quarter including sales to our Distribution segment were $363,700,000 compared to $325,100,000 in third quarter twenty nineteen. As Nate mentioned, Wood Products reported segment income of $66,000,000 in the third quarter compared to $15,600,000 in the prior year quarter. Reported EBITDA for the business was $80,000,000 up from EBITDA of $30,800,000 reported in the year ago quarter.
The increase in segment income was due primarily to higher plywood sales prices, offset partially by higher wood fiber costs as well as lower net sales prices of EWP. In addition, selling and distribution expenses in general and administrative expenses increased $2,000,000 and $1,700,000 respectively. BMD's sales in the quarter were $1,400,000,000 up 25% from third quarter twenty nineteen. Sales prices increased 25% with relatively flat sales volumes. The business reported segment income of $107,900,000 or EBITDA of $113,600,000 in the third quarter.
This compares to segment income of $38,700,000 and EBITDA of $43,900,000 in the prior year quarter. The increase in segment income was driven by a gross margin increase of $86,700,000 resulting primarily from improved gross margins on commodity products compared with third quarter twenty nineteen. This margin improvement was offset partially by increased selling and distribution expenses and general and administrative expenses of $14,300,000 and $2,500,000 respectively. The amounts for unallocated corporate costs and other items impacting our reported adjusted EBITDA can be found in the tables of our earnings release. The net of those items was negative $15,000,000 in third quarter twenty twenty compared with $10,700,000 in third quarter twenty nineteen.
The increase was due primarily to higher incentive compensation costs and approximately $3,200,000 of business interruption losses at Wood Products facilities that were absorbed at corporate in the third quarter as part of our self insured risk retention program. Turning to slide five, our third quarter sales volume for I joist was up 5% and sales volume for our LVL was down 2% compared with third quarter twenty nineteen. Demand for EWP strengthened through the quarter and we are seeing strong EWP demand continue into the fourth quarter. Pricing in third quarter for I joists and LVL were down 21% respectively compared with second quarter twenty twenty. Wood Products announced list price increases for both LVL and I joists in August.
We would expect to see the benefits of the list price increases phase in over the next several quarters. Turning to slide six. Our third quarter plywood sales volume in Wood Products was three sixteen million feet compared to three forty three million feet in third quarter twenty nineteen. The lower volume for plywood sales reflects our continued work to optimize veneer into EWP production as well as periodic short term disruptions related to COVID-nineteen. The $428 average plywood net sales price in third quarter was up 69% from third quarter twenty nineteen.
Plywood demand and pricing continued to strengthen and reach historic levels during the third quarter. However, industry plywood production effectiveness appears to improve, imports have increased and the long lead time for orders have subsided as we moved into fourth quarter, which is resulting in pricing retreating from the atypical levels experienced in third quarter, particularly in The Southern U. S. On Slide seven, BMD's third quarter sales were $1,400,000,000 up 25% from third quarter twenty nineteen with prices up 25% and volumes relatively flat. By product area, BMD's commodity sales increased 54%, general line product sales increased 6% and EWP sales increased 6%.
The gross margin percentage for BMD in the third quarter was 16.4%, up three forty basis points from the 13% reported in third quarter twenty nineteen. The gross margin increase resulted from improved gross margins on commodity products compared to third quarter twenty nineteen as well as an increased proportion of sales occurring out of warehouse rather than direct. BMG's EBITDA margin for the quarter was 7.9%, up from the 3.8% reported in the year ago quarter. Slide eight shows the sharp rise in lumber pricing in the second and third quarters. Strong demand when coupled with capacity constraints in third quarter twenty twenty created supply demand imbalances in the marketplace and historically high pricing levels for commodity lumber and panel products.
However, October 2020 composite lumber prices and panel prices have declined by approximately 3510% from the peaks reached in September 2020 and are at risk for further price erosion. Commodity product pricing will continue to be volatile as we move through the fourth quarter and head into winter. Pricing movements from the current levels will likely be determined by the strength of end market consumption and industry operating rates. On Slide nine, one can see the same pricing pattern for the Random Length Composite Panel Index, which has begun to decline in the fourth quarter as many manufacturers have worked toward restoring their production to near pre COVID levels, imports have increased and customer orders are able to be filled in shorter timeframes. Moving to slide 10, we have set out the key elements of our working capital.
Company net working capital, excluding cash, income tax items, accrued interest and dividends payable decreased $44,400,000 during third quarter. Accounts payable on accrued liabilities increased from second quarter due to seasonally higher purchasing activity and higher incentive compensation accruals for 2020. Both businesses reduced inventory during the quarter. Distribution inventories decreased due to stronger than expected demand and higher inventory turns, While manufacturing inventories decreased due to strong end product demand, lower log inventories and reduced production levels in response to periodic short term disruptions at many locations due to COVID-nineteen and hurricanes in the Southeastern U. S.
The statistical information filed as Exhibit 99.2 to our eight ks has the receivables, inventory and accounts payable data broken down by segment for those that are interested in more detail. I'm now on Slide 11. We finished third quarter with $5.00 $4,000,000 of cash. Our total available liquidity at September 30 was approximately $849,000,000 which reflects our cash and availability under our committed bank line. We had $444,000,000 of outstanding debt at September 30.
During the quarter, we issued $400,000,000 of ten year notes with a 4.875% interest rate. Proceeds from the offering were used to retire our $350,000,000 of 5.5% notes due 2024 as well as a $45,000,000 secured term loan. In connection with these transactions, we recognized a pretax loss on extinguishment of debt of $14,000,000 during third quarter twenty twenty. In addition, we have announced our intention to terminate our qualified defined benefit pension plan. As part of the plan termination process during the third quarter, we repurchased two BMT locations that were leased from the pension plan for approximately $11,000,000 The $11,000,000 was recorded as pension contributions in the quarter.
We expect to fully eliminate the liabilities of our pension plan in fourth quarter twenty twenty, upon which we will record the related non cash accounting adjustments as required by the application of pension settlement accounting rules. We do not expect any further cash contributions to terminate the pension plan. In response to the uncertainty of the impacts of COVID-nineteen, we reduced our planned capital spending for 2020 from our previously expected range of 85,000,000 to 95,000,000 to now a revised range of 60,000,000 to $75,000,000 We expect our capital spending excluding acquisitions to be approximately 80,000,000 to $90,000,000 in 2021. Our effective book tax rate is expected to be between 2530% going forward. In light of our higher than targeted cash balance, we are paying a supplemental dividend today of $1.6 per share to our shareholders, which was previously announced.
After payment of the supplemental dividend, we remain well positioned with sufficient cash in reserve to support internal growth initiatives, anticipated working capital uses as well as opportunistic acquisitions as we move into 2021. Our objective remains to successfully grow our business while generating appropriate returns on shareholder capital. And with that, I will turn it back over to Nate to discuss our business outlook.
Speaker 2
Thanks, Wayne. I'm on Slide number 12. Weather continues to be heightened level of economic uncertainty given the pandemic, low mortgage rates, continuation of work from home practices by many in the economy and demographics in The U. S. Have created a favorable demand environment for new residential construction, which we expect to continue into next year.
Furthermore, with homeowners spending more time at home, repair and remodel spending may continue to strengthen as homeowners invest in existing homes. The blue chip consensus for U. S. Housing starts was last published at an expectation of 1,320,000 for 2020. Although we believe that current U.
S. Demographics support a higher level of housing starts and many national homebuilders are reporting strong near term backlogs, the impacts of COVID-nineteen on residential construction are uncertain. A reacceleration of COVID-nineteen cases could prompt state or local officials to reinstitute restrictions that could limit or constrain building activity. Aside from higher OSB input costs into I joists, we continue to see favorable cost improvements and efficiencies in our manufacturing operations. Wood Products continues to make an effort to restore production rates to pre COVID-nineteen levels in response to strong end product demand, particularly for our EWP business.
As previously announced, we will continue to evaluate plywood market conditions, log supply availability, operating cost, environmental permits and other factors influencing our Elgin plywood operations as we approach 2021. In the distribution arena, BMD has done a terrific job of executing and responding to market opportunities at both at local and national level. Effectively managing the impacts of commodity price changes will remain at the forefront for our distribution group in the fourth quarter. As a wholesale distributor, a broad mix of commodity products and a manufacturer of certain commodity products, we have sales and profitability exposure to declines in commodity product prices. With uncertainties in demand and difficulties in judging the appropriate operating rates, commodity wood products pricing could be volatile in the months ahead.
We will react appropriately. As we wrap up our formal comments, I want to express my sincere appreciation for the focus our associates and managers have maintained on safety, taking care of one another and the communities in which we operate as well as our customers and other key relationships. Their performance through the pandemic as well as through recent hurricanes in Louisiana and the wildfires in the West has simply been inspiring. We will continue to be guided by our values of safety, integrity, respect and pursuit of excellence. We will successfully get to the other side of this crisis by centering on the health and safety of our associates and making sure we use our operating and financial strength to the benefit of our customers, suppliers, communities and shareholders.
Thank you for joining us today for your and your continued support and interest in Boise Cascade. We would welcome any questions at this time. Chris, would you please open the phone lines?
Speaker 0
Certainly. Our first question comes from George Staphos with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Speaker 3
Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question and congratulations on progress in the quarter. I guess the first question I had perhaps for Nick, given the drop that we're seeing in some of the commodity prices, in particular lumber, and given how general line has excuse me, commodity has grown in terms of the overall mix of the business, what do you do differently in terms of managing the working capital risk into the fourth quarter, into the first quarter? And if you had to gauge just a normal sort of level of risk management or heightened risk management relative to past periods, how would you frame it Nick for us in terms of how you're managing the business?
Speaker 4
Good morning, George. I think the fundamental backbone of our strategy has been and will continue to be making sure that we have product available for our customers on a daily basis. And there's ongoing reasons in terms of customer service and those kinds of things. And quite frankly, it represents an opportunity in environments like this one. It's got some risk.
But if you think about everyone's expectation in terms of declining prices, there is opportunity if you have commodity products on the ground that you can get to your customers tomorrow, you can keep the wood flowing and turning. So fundamentally, we start with the premise that we want to have product available. We start with the premise of trying to make sure it flows out and flows in every day and hopefully the inflow doesn't exceed the outflow. And obviously you do that with pricing certainly in the broader context given what we've had in terms of the magnitude of the pricing volatility. As we came into the tail end of the third quarter, we recognized that given extended order files and pretty frisky prices that there was probably a little more risk out there than in normal times, whatever normal means.
And so we adjusted the inflow a little bit in terms of that. Again, we wanted to make sure we had product for our customers out there.
Speaker 3
Understood. So it sounds like more of what you normally do, maybe a little bit of extra emphasis on risk management just given where prices
Speaker 4
Yes, think that's a fair way to say it.
Speaker 3
Now maybe playing my audience not intentionally so, but what benefit are you meaning you guys, I mean, benefit do you think you're getting if at all from having your own fleet? And in general, what sorts of tensions are you seeing right now in terms of logistics costs and freight costs? That's a broader question to everybody.
Speaker 4
George, this is Nick again. From a distribution standpoint, we do have our own fleet, but only about half of what we deliver is on our own trucks. The rest of it we rely on dedicated and contract carriers to do that. And really from a cost standpoint, there's a little bit of movement back and forth, but it's not significant if you think about the cost of payroll drivers and kind of own versus rent. Transportation through the third quarter and I'll let Mike talk a little bit about it from the manufacturing side from the mills.
But transportation for the third quarter was a challenge. It was scarce, but it wasn't a showstopper and it wasn't impossible to find trucks and we kind of worked through it pretty well.
Speaker 1
Got it.
Speaker 5
Yes, George. This is Mike. Like reiterate what Nick said. Obviously, were some interruptions with the fires in the West and the storms in the Southeast, primarily in Louisiana. But taking it all into account after those things passed, we've had a little bit more challenge in locating trucks on a timely basis, but not dramatically.
That's not been our biggest challenge of recent times. And the pricing has been, I'd say, relatively constant. So not a big issue right at the moment.
Speaker 3
Okay. My last one, I'll turn it over to you, Mike. On Wood Products, I mean, the gross margin was extraordinary 3Q versus 3Q. Congratulations to you and the team. Anything that we should remember that perhaps we're forgetting about in terms of comparisons versus last year or anything in particular that went well beyond pricing obviously from a manufacturing standpoint, so that you got so much to the bottom line at the gross margin level?
Thank you.
Speaker 5
Yes, George. Yes, good question. It wasn't just great pricing. As you probably recall from our previous quarterly calls, we took some fairly aggressive steps early on this year to cut back on expenditures, things like our obviously, CapEx was one of them, but also on things like how much we were spending on maintenance and our focus on cost control generally. And at the end of the day, those things have put us in a very strong position, obviously, in conjunction with our outstanding pricing.
So we had the best of both worlds, if you want to call it that. Very strong pricing and really very, very strong cost control.
Speaker 6
Thank you very much.
Speaker 1
Thanks, George.
Speaker 0
Our next question is from Mark Wilde with Bank of Montreal. Your line is open.
Speaker 6
Good morning, Nate. Good morning, Wayne. Good morning, Mike. Good morning,
Speaker 1
Nick. Good morning. Good morning, Mark. Know, Nate,
Speaker 6
I think you owe a bunch of people lunch today.
Speaker 2
Was that to Nick or to Nate?
Speaker 6
To Nate.
Speaker 2
Yes. Mark, no question. Yes, there just outstanding performance in the quarter. And while we had a number of, I think, strong tailwinds, the fingerprints of 6,000 associates are absolutely all over those results. So we're grateful for the work and the results that
Speaker 6
were delivered. Yes. And it looks like even with the payout of the dividend today, you're essentially net debt free, if my math is correct.
Speaker 1
We were Mark, we were trying to be somewhat conservative with the unknowns that are still out there for 2021. And then in combining with the $0.10 quarterly dividend, it gets us to an even $2 payout for the year, which we're pretty proud of.
Speaker 6
Yes. I guess, Wayne, one question that I have is the impact on the distribution business in the fourth quarter potential of this rapid correction in lumber prices. What how we might think about that rolling through the business? I think we got at some of this with George's question.
Speaker 1
Well, I'll let Nick speak to this. But I would tell you from my chair, I think the data we have available this round relative to the data we had available in the second half of 'eighteen is considerably better. And I think the way Nick's guys have visibility into what's going on in pricing has improved. And so I think really to Nick's point, at the August and September, they really started managing the risk of a rollover. And through October, I think have done a nice job of managing that.
Obviously, November and December have yet to be seen. But I think with panels holding up, and at least the way Nick's team has managed the lumber declines through the month of October. I'm feeling better about it than I did in past cycles when we've had sharp sell offs, even though this one has come from a higher point. And I'll let Nick step in. But I think his comment earlier about being in the markets every day and having a really good feel combined with the data has been very, very helpful over the last six to eight weeks.
Speaker 4
Yes, Mark. Good morning. This is Nick. I would kind of echo Wayne's comments and maybe add a little color. Certainly, we don't expect a 16% margin experience in the fourth quarter.
That's well outside our historical range. And you're as familiar with what our historical ranges have been as anybody. So I would guide you there a bit. I think the other thing relative to the current environment is inventories are relatively lean throughout the supply channel, both at our level, we're lean. I think the lumber yards are lean.
I think builders aren't quite frankly, builders were delaying a little bit towards the tail end when high prices were happening. And everybody is really aspiring to lower inventories. I listened to a couple of calls last week of public companies and heard words like we intend to stay lean. We're going to manage based on sales expectation and we're only going to cover our immediate needs. So I think that's the framework by which everybody is operating.
And as long as demand holds up, the flow through will be really pretty good. And so 's a little bit of buying and selling tail end of last week. And as I told the Board last week, this is a we're in Chapter eight of a 12 chapter book, and I don't know if the hero is going to get shot or he's going to find the gold and get the girls. So we'll see.
Speaker 6
Okay. And just kind of related to this, any sense from where you guys are sitting as to whether the kind of the supply and the inventories can get back to some kind of a normal level as we move through the winter months? Or could we hit next spring building season and still be quite tight? Because it seems like the current level of single family starts is still quite strong. So from the outside, it would seem like we may have a hard time catching up through the winter months.
The
Speaker 4
way I think about it, Mark, is kind of in our three product buckets if you will. From a general line standpoint, many of our key suppliers are on allocation as we speak. And depending on the severity of the winter that will give them a little bit of traction. But if demand holds up, inventories won't be able to build in the off cycle and we may very well have similar situations come next spring. I think with EWP, I'll let Mike and or Wayne talk about kind of what we expect there.
In terms of commodity wood products, OSB has so far held up from a price standpoint and extended order files. The lumber guys particularly in the South, the order files have eroded and prices have retrenched pretty dramatically. And whether the producers on the lumber side decide to kind of stick with the game plan and build it, I think there's more capacity out there on the lumber side than to take advantage of the demand, if you will. So very good question. We're planning to make sure we have adequate inventory and look for opportunities to add to those over the winter cycle when and where appropriate.
Speaker 6
And I guess the last one for me is just on the EWP side. Given the starts numbers that you gave, which were up kind of mid teens on single family, should we expect a significant acceleration in your EWP volumes? Or is it a matter of you just being supply constrained at this point?
Speaker 5
Yes, Mark, it's Mike. So I can tell you that we're doing everything we possibly can to produce as much EWP as our infrastructure will allow us. And, we have a reasonably extended order file. We went on the allocation word some time ago, and I expect we will be in that position for some time to come. I can't tell you 100% sure when that might end.
But I think through the next month or two, I think that could easily be the case. And of course, it will depend, as you point out, what happens with housing starts through the remainder of this year and into early next year. I can speak for our attempts to bring on additional staff, not only at our EWP mills, but at our veneerplywood mills. And we've made some really quite significant progress since the last call we had. But on average, we're operating probably at around 90%
So we still have more people that we need to bring on and train. So I think they'll be on the EWP side, at least for the reasonable foreseeable future. I think it will be quite challenging with the order files that are there and the housing starts that are continuing to happen day in and day out.
Speaker 7
Okay. That's helpful. I'll turn
Speaker 6
it over, Mike. Thank you.
Speaker 5
Thanks, Mark.
Speaker 0
Your next question is from Reuben Garner with Benchmark Company. Your line is open.
Speaker 7
Thank you. Good morning, everybody.
Speaker 1
Good morning, Maybe
Speaker 7
just a follow-up on that engineered wood products question. So to clarify, you're running at 90% capacity in the third quarter, given the fourth and first quarters are a little weaker from a volume perspective, if I remember correctly. Can we expect that your year over year growth rates might have a chance to accelerate given what we've seen in the market? And I guess kind of a second part of this question is over the last few years smaller median home sizes and the location of some of the construction has kind of limited the I joist opportunity. Are you guys seeing that trend reverse with some of the construction strength in some other markets like the Midwest and Northeast?
Speaker 5
Yes, Ruben. So yes, you're right about usually Q4 and Q1 have lower demand levels for EWP just because of the seasonality. I can't I'm not very good at predicting the future and particularly not the weather, which has a pretty large impact on what can happen. But given that there's a great preponderance of starts that are occurring in the Southeast, if we have good weather and we run well, there is some chance that particularly the next this quarter and the following quarter could be a bit above what we would normally see. To my point earlier, we're running as hard as we possibly can and we'll continue to do that no matter what the starts are because we would like to build some more inventory.
So if we don't sell it, we'll be putting more inventory on the ground to move into the what we call the traditional part of the building season next year. As it relates to your question about I joists and what's happening, I think everybody has seen the trends of course year over year for a number of years now, where I joist penetration has dropped off somewhat. We're not seeing a change in that at this point in time. With the slab on grade and being a significant proportion of the construction, particularly in places like Texas and a somewhat smaller footprint for housing starts. I think there is a bit of pressure on I joists.
But I will tell you interestingly, and this may be because of the price of lumber, that the demand for I joists at the moment is very strong. And I think that's probably likely to continue for a little while because of the benefits that accrue from using that type of building material.
Speaker 7
Mike, if I could follow-up, what is how does this all translate from a pricing perspective? I know you put out an increase in August. Is it possible because you and I'm assuming your competitors are pretty tight as well. I mean could we see maybe more pricing announcements than we normally would for engineered wood products so that you guys are able to invest in increasing your capacity or at least I guess, help me walk me through how this compares to a normal kind of environment if there is such a thing?
Speaker 5
Yes, sure. So yes, you are correct. Not only Boise Cascade, but other companies in this sector have implemented price increases in the last number of months. I think the question about what the future holds is as much as anything about what happens between now and let's say, the end of Q1, Q2 next year. And if demand is very strong, and I think we all hope it will be, then of course, it's us or the rest of the industry, I think there'll be some close attention to whether there's opportunity for another increase As it relates to what that might be and when it might be, I couldn't really say at this point in time.
And as you well know, the level of increase is really market specific. It depends on some markets can be more robust than others. Was there sorry, was there another bit to your question there, Ruben, that I may have missed?
Speaker 7
No, no. That was helpful, Mike. And then last one for me is, I guess, on the commodity pricing side, I guess, a two part question. Does I think last quarter, Wayne, you mentioned an estimate of what level of normal capacity you and maybe some of the others in the industry were able to run their mills because of the different constraints with the viruses. I think if I remember correctly, you said maybe 85% to 90% of normal capacity.
Do you feel like that's kind of the same? Or has it gotten better or worse in the last few months? And then to that end, does that kind of put a floor on how low pricing can go? And I know it may be different with lumber and panels, but can you is there a new normal we can expect that might be higher than we've seen in the last few years until there's COVID issue is resolved, all assuming demand holds up and it's robust as it's been over the last six months or so?
Speaker 1
Ruben, this is Wayne. I think it's gotten marginally better or it did through September. And then since Labor Day, the contagion rate has started to go back up. So I think some of the operating practices are still helping. And as Mike said, some of the labor availability issues in terms of being able to hire people has improved.
But in the last four weeks in a number of places that COVID contagion rate has accelerated. So we'll see what happens on the production side and how much impact that has as we move into winter. But the community contact rates in a number of places are becoming more problematic, which is evident from the broad national news. The other thing that Mike didn't touch on EWP and it probably goes across most of the products is the mix of housing starts has changed. So to the extent we go to 1.35 or 1.38 as many expect in 2021, a higher proportion of those are likely to be single family starts.
And then in a number of cases, it's people that are moving out of urban areas that have pretty good personal wealth. And so to the extent you see single family starts, a typical single family start will usually use about three times the amount of product a multifamily start uses. And to the extent you have people that are starting those homes and it's a result of work from home and they're higher income people like in tech jobs moving to cities outside the Bay Area, you may see a change in the median home size that would also provide a tailwind. But that mix of heavier to single family and lower to multifamily is likely to create incremental demand as we get into 'twenty one as we've seen late this year.
Speaker 7
That's perfect. Thanks Wayne. I appreciate it. And congrats everyone on the quarter. Stay safe and good luck through the rest of the year.
Speaker 1
Thanks Reuben. Thanks Reuben.
Speaker 0
Our next question is from Kurt Yinger with D. A. Davidson. Your line is open.
Speaker 8
Great. Thank you and good morning, everyone.
Speaker 1
Good morning. Good morning, Kurt.
Speaker 8
Good morning. I just wanted to start out in Wood Products with a two parter. First, could you just touch on the divergence we've seen here between plywood and OSB and how you think about the sustainability of that trend? And then second, OSB was a decent headwind in Q3, But could you remind us what kind of lag you have with inventories and how that might further kind of pressure the cost side in the fourth quarter?
Speaker 5
Yes, Kurt. Good morning to you. So yes, it's an interesting set of circumstances as you point out with OSB holding up so robustly and plywood obviously taking a significant hit. The way I look at it is a bit like this. I'll speak about plywood first.
So the run up in plywood prices sort of in parallel with OSB was pretty much as we would expect. However, recent times, if you look at whether it's domestic production in certain locations or geographies, thinking more principally of the Southeast, there has been a bit more production. And so supply has increased domestically. In addition to that, imports from Brazil, basically pine sheathing plywood, have dramatically increased in the last three months or so. And year to date, the last numbers I saw, this was at the September, Brazilian imports were up like about 18% year over year, all of which really occurred in the last three months.
So that's obviously bringing more supply into the market. And as you would appreciate, that can have a pretty dramatic impact in the marketplace. And why hasn't OSB declined? Well, I think there's probably a couple of comments I'd make around that. One is there have been a number of impacts on the production.
So there's a type of resin that OSB produces or some of them use called MDI. And with the storms that came through Louisiana, the production of that was impacted. So I know some producers, not all producers, have been impacted in terms of their ability to run some of their locations. So there's a little bit more restriction on the availability of OSB. And with those sort of you have one being somewhat more restricted and the other one having additional supply show up, then you get the divergence, I think, that we've seen at this point in time.
As it relates to OSB and its impact on us and our inventory levels, we generally hold a significant amount of OSB inventory for web stock production for our I joists. And yes, we did have some challenges earlier in the year because everybody had curtailed reduced their production. But we don't have a problem at this point in time in terms of the availability. Our pricing mechanisms are such that we sort of trail behind and then we catch up. And if OSB prices were to fall, we again would sort of have a lagging impact on our cost structure.
If you think about it, it's sort of like $100 on the index represents like $0.10 a foot on our square foot, that is. So it does impact our cost structure, but it's relatively speaking not a huge impact. Of course, it's something, but it's not the level of impact that the drop in plywood prices has on wood products profitability.
Speaker 8
Got it. Okay. That's very helpful. And then just switching to Elgin and I realize it's a fluid situation, but it sounds like the majority of that production is plywood. But if you had to really cut back there, would that impact veneer sourcing at all for EWP production in the West?
Speaker 5
Not really, not so much. Historically speaking, the Elgin plywood facility has played basically no role in our engineered wood products activities because of its distance from Medford, which is where our large EWP facility in the Western United States is located. In the last maybe year or so, we have taken some stress rated veneer from Elgin to White City or Medford. But the way I look at it is more along the lines of it's not a significant impact. If we have run that facility at White City or Medford without the veneer from Elgin, which indicates that it's nice to have, but not absolutely necessary.
So we'll continue to evaluate that. And as I'm sure you've probably read from some of the announcements, we're taking a very precautionary sort of view of what might happen at Elgin. There's been no decision to shut the mill. We're just making sure that people are aware that we have a number of issues that we will have to resolve in a timely fashion for it to not either be curtailed for a shorter or longer period of time. And I'm reasonably confident that with the steps that have been taken over the last few weeks in particular that we may be able to find a way out of this malaise by early next year.
Speaker 2
Got
Speaker 8
it. Okay. That's encouraging. And then just lastly on the 80,000,000 to $90,000,000 of CapEx next year, any discrete capacity or efficiency investments worth calling out on the Wood Products side? And then within DMD, any bigger ticket expansion plans with door shops or anything along those lines?
Speaker 5
So I'll speak to the wood products stuff again. So we have in some respects unfortunately fallen behind a little bit on what I'd call maintenance CapEx. As you'd appreciate this year with COVID, the availability of contractors and the necessity to run the machinery as rapidly or quickly as we possibly could has certainly put us a little bit behind on our, what I'd call, maintenance CapEx spending. As it relates to is there a significant amount of the wood products CapEx that's allocated to add additional throughput capacity, the answer is really not very much at all. I mean, we'll be hopefully able to change out some old equipment for new, but it won't have a dramatic impact on the throughput of any of our facilities per se.
Most of that work has pretty much come to a halt or been concluded might be a better way of putting it. And what hasn't been finished yet, I hope to see that sort of wind up by the middle of next year.
Speaker 1
Got it. And then I'll let Nick answer your question. But I think in general, you should expect spending later this year and into 'twenty one to continue the DORA initiative as well as build out the real estate footprint. Nick's got a number of markets that he'd like to get into that we're serving with long truck hauls today. And then we will opportunistically also look to take ownership of some of the real estate footprint where we have flexibility under some leases to do so and we think it makes sense financially, we will likely deploy some cash to own properties rather than lease again where that financially makes sense.
Speaker 8
Got it. Okay. Thanks, Wayne and appreciate all the details. I'll turn it over.
Speaker 0
Our next question is from Paul Quinn with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Speaker 9
Hey, good morning and thanks for letting me get in here with a couple of questions.
Speaker 1
Good morning, Paul. Good morning,
Speaker 7
Paul.
Speaker 5
Just to start maybe on EWP side, taking a look
Speaker 9
at your Slide five and noticing the LVL prices have been down, basically going down for the last seven quarters. Just trying to understand that. And just on the I joist side, I suspect you got quite a bit of cost headwinds with OSB and lumber prices out. What's the traditional lag between when you see significant inflation in your cost and then whether you're able to gain back price on the sale of in terms of your sale price?
Speaker 5
Yes, Paul. This is Mike. Yes, the drop in LVL pricing over time, I think, has really been a reflection of what's been happening in the marketplace, say, prior to COVID really hitting. So when housing starts were somewhat lower, I guess I could put it like this, there was sort of an abundance of LVL supply relative to the housing start number. And of course, that brings pressure on pricing.
And as a result, we took some action in certain locations, which basically brought down our pricing. Along the lines of we wanted to make sure that our customers certainly had available product, but also we it's a very competitive marketplace. So we had to make some adjustments there to maintain the volumes that we wanted to have. As it relates to I joists and cost versus price, Yes, as I pointed out a little earlier, the input costs for OSB web stock, yes, they have made a difference year over year. And it's not insignificant for sure.
But we have an average that we use. And usually, it takes about a quarter or so for that to work its way through either up or down, the way we work with our partner, our supplier. So as things went up, we trailed a little bit behind. And should they stay up, I guess we'll sort of catch up. And then of course, as it goes down, we have to wait a while for that to get into place.
The reality is that EWP pricing is not based directly on input costs. It's a market driven situation. And each market is a little bit different, and we compete with different companies in different places. So while our input costs may have gone up in some way or form, That doesn't necessarily give us an automatic mechanism by which to adjust pricing. That's been the way that EWP pricing has worked for a long time.
It's not certainly not a commodity, and that's part of the approach. You asked about lumber. We only use lumber in our solid flanges in our Canadian location. And we do use some lumber, of course, for our Gluvanbeam facility. And both those locations have sort of taken it on the chin the last few months in particular.
But if you think about those two specific mills relative to our overall EWP capacity and the sales that have generated those relative to the total, it's not insignificant for the two mills. But relative to the overall profitability of the division, it's not that larger a number.
Speaker 9
Great. That's very helpful. And then, Mike, I think you did a great job explaining that difference between plywood and OSB. I'm just curious whether you've seen any kind of substitution back to plywood from traditional OSB users given the price differential amount?
Speaker 5
Not quite yet, but I am
Speaker 7
hopeful is the answer. With the spread
Speaker 5
as big
Speaker 7
as it is as
Speaker 5
the right you think sooner or later somebody would start using some plywood as underlayment again, wouldn't you?
Speaker 7
I live in hope.
Speaker 9
Fair answer. Maybe the last one, just on the B and D side. We saw a mix shift to higher commodity in Q3. I take that a one timer given the high, I guess, commodity prices. I think should go back to sort of a 40% overall.
Speaker 4
Hi, Paul. Nick Stokes here. I think that's the answer. Certainly, the inflationary effect on commodities was huge. Indexes were up $300 $400 and skewed that.
I don't think there's anything fundamentally going on other than that.
Speaker 1
It's Paul, other than the inflation, it's been commodities have been running at about 42% of sales for BMD.
Speaker 9
Yes, right. Excellent, excellent results. Thanks very much guys.
Speaker 1
Appreciate it.
Speaker 0
Your next question is from Mark Wilde with Bank of Montreal. Your line is open.
Speaker 7
Yes, just a couple of
Speaker 6
follow ons. Is there any likely impact on Boise Cascade from some of this consolidation we're seeing going on over in the pro dealer channel?
Speaker 2
Mark, it's Nate. Let me I'll take a shot at that and Mike and Nick can jump in. So but both some of the consolidation that you've referenced, we would we have seen the consolidation take place in the lumberyard space over the last couple of years. Obviously, the announcement a couple of months back, we would expect that trend likely to continue, just like we've seen that, frankly, the national builder side of things as well. So we have strong relationships with both of those entities.
We expect that going forward. And we expect the consolidation theme to continue as we head into 2021. So it's something I think we're prepared for and something, again, we're expecting as we head into 2021 and beyond, frankly.
Speaker 6
Okay. The other one I had just as a follow on, it seems like we're seeing more competition coming out in the composite decking business. And I just I'd like to get your thoughts on what you're seeing in terms of volume in that business and new entrants coming into the business. It's been a kind of a high growth, high multiple business.
Speaker 4
Hi, Mark. Nick here. I think we have a pretty slanted view of that in terms of the overall industry. We have a primary relationship with with leading brand. And so we're probably not as in tune with some of the new manufacturing entrants.
I would tell you that we continue to be really pleased with our supplier partner in terms of we do have they continue to innovate. Our business there continues to grow. But to your good point, I think the whole category is growing. And certainly, challenges associated with wood treated decking through the spring and the summer probably accelerated that a little bit in terms of people's desire to upgrade into composites. So we don't have a very good view of the overall industry there to be candid.
Speaker 6
Okay, fair enough. Good luck in the fourth quarter and into next year guys.
Speaker 1
Thanks Mark. Thanks Mark.
Speaker 0
Your next question is from George Staphos with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Speaker 3
Hi, thanks for taking the follow ons. Maybe a question for Wayne. Wayne, remind me, you might have already covered this last quarter and I forget, but is there an amount of spending to the point that Mike was mentioning earlier, you've brought back spending. Obviously, in the environment that we've been in, you've had lower spending, higher pricing, great world. How much of that spending might be reintroduced to the P and L next year?
Is there a way to put a number on that? I remember you maybe mentioning this on the last conference call. Apologies if you did not forget, but if you had a number or some way to guardrail that, that would be great. And then a question on imports.
Speaker 1
Yes. Think Mike can probably speak to the maintenance. I mean, with COVID, we're seeing much lower numbers on T and E. With profitability, we've got much higher incentives being accrued this year. I think in terms of the capital spending side, as Mike said, we'll get back probably closer to a $50,000,000 spend in wood next year assuming the engineering resources are available and assuming we can manage the outages from a customer demand standpoint, particularly on the EWP side.
But again, I tend to think of the business as around $50 ish million of capital in wood to continue to make modest productivity improvements and reliability improvements. And then in Nick's business, I tend to think of it as scale today in the 25,000,000 to $28,000,000 range and then a couple of million a year for IT. And part of the reason the spending numbers reaccelerated this year is Nick was able to make a real estate purchase northeast of the Nashville market. And so he's investing in the real estate footprint in the Nashville area, which is part of the reason that the capital numbers went back up to 60 to 75. We've been able to reaccelerate some projects that were on hold earlier in the year.
Speaker 3
If you had to think about and I know you don't want to do this line item by line item or what
Speaker 0
we expected, but broadly, if
Speaker 3
you think about things like T and E and other expenditures that have been curtailed for obvious reasons, If we were in a normal year, as somebody else said, whatever that might mean, earlier on the call, how much spending would we see? How much of an increase would we see ex I'm not talking about CapEx, I'm just talking about your spending?
Speaker 1
Yes. I think the T and E and Kelly Hibbs, I think, is on the call or Controller. I think the T and E savings is probably in the 8,000,000 to $9,000,000 range for the year. And the offset to that is with our EBITDA likely to come in well north of $300,000,000 I would tell you we're going to have more than an to that on incentive compensation this year relative to where our normal incentive compensation target payouts would be.
Speaker 0
Okay. Thanks for that.
Speaker 3
And then the other question I had, and I'll wrap up from my side. The Chileans and the Brazilians have been talking about shipping more product into North America for a couple of quarters now, at least from our vantage point. Aside from just the level of pricing that was reached by plywood earlier in the year and in the third quarter in particular, why do you think we're seeing that level of import now really ratchet higher? Is it purely price? Or is there some other constraint that you saw that we might not have seen in terms of why it's accelerated?
Thanks guys and good luck in the quarter.
Speaker 1
George, I would probably mention two things as it relates to the Brazilian imports. I think currency is playing a major role. Think the prices we had in The U. S. And then there's tariffs in Europe that usually go on sometime around April.
The Brazilians and others will usually ship into Europe in the first quarter and somewhat into the second quarter before the tariffs take impact. So I think the combination of those three factors is part of the reason you've seen the acceleration in the fall. It's been more pronounced this year, but I think it's because of the record pricing we saw in August and September and there were some delays in shipments out of Brazil. So I think now they're shipping in response. And my assumption is that we will see some backing away as we move through the balance of this year and into the first quarter because I would expect with the pricing changes that have occurred in the Southern U.
S. That they'll redirect some of that volume to Europe early in the year before the tariffs go on. And with that, Chris, I think we're about out of time. You're welcome. Unless there are other questions in the queue, guess I would maybe turn it back to Nate to wrap up.
Speaker 2
Great. Thanks Wayne and thanks everyone. We appreciate everyone joining us this morning for our update and thank you for your continued interest and support of Boise Cascade. Please be safe and please be well. Thank you.
Speaker 0
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.
Speaker 1
Thanks, Chris.