Q1 2024 Earnings Summary
- Despite a slight decrease from March to April, sales pace in BMD remains at healthy levels, and momentum in Engineered Wood Products (EWP) continues to be solid as we head into May.
- The company maintains normal inventory levels and acts as a safe harbor for customers amid commodity price declines, enabling it to meet customer demand effectively and potentially gain market share.
- Strong demand in general line products, with customers showing confidence and stepping in to purchase during winter buys, indicates stability and growth potential in this segment.
- Declining commodity prices and customer caution are leading to decreased inventory purchases, particularly in OSB, where prices are decelerating. Customers prefer to buy exactly what they need when they need it, which may impact sales volume.
- Pricing pressure in Engineered Wood Products (EWP) and millwork segments due to competition and increased costs from offshore components and freight, which could squeeze margins in these higher-margin product lines.
- Building Materials Distribution (BMD) sales pace has slowed slightly in April compared to March, and if this pace continues, BMD sales in Q2 2024 are expected to be down versus the same quarter last year.
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Capital Allocation Plans
Q: Will you increase shareholder returns through buybacks or dividends going forward?
A: We are committed to our expanded capital program and expect to provide additional shareholder returns, assuming no meaningful M&A surfaces. Our plan includes both share repurchases and special dividends, but we can't communicate specifics now. Our expectation is to return additional capital to shareholders absent M&A this year. -
Margin Outlook Amid Commodity Price Changes
Q: How will falling OSB prices impact BMD margins and inventory management?
A: OSB prices have fallen sharply but are still high compared to history. We are actively managing our inventory by turning it over and working down our positions. We saw this decline coming and worked hard to lighten our position before it hit. Our focus is on being in the marketplace every day, not falling in love with our inventory, and being there for our customers. -
Competitive Dynamics in EWP
Q: Is it harder to get builders to switch back to I-joists from open web trusses, and what's the pricing differential?
A: The competition between I-joists and open web trusses is not new. I-joist systems are competitive in terms of cost and lead times, and they help builders reduce cycle time, which is crucial. When builders look to drive down costs, sometimes going vertical with a second story is the right answer, creating opportunities for EWP. -
EWP Volume Growth Exceeding Single-Family Starts
Q: Your EWP volume growth exceeded single-family starts; where is the additional volume coming from?
A: Our EWP volumes were heavily driven by single-family construction. We feel good about capturing market share due to our strong manufacturing performance and being a leading national distributor. -
Outlook on Margins and Pricing Pressure
Q: With current price pressures on EWP and OSB, and seasonal volume changes, how do you expect margins to trend in Q2?
A: April margins were healthy, but May will be a discovery period due to commodity prices. We expect some margin pressure in May, depending on the duration of the price weakness. However, we feel good about the underlying earnings capability of BMD moving forward to be consistent with recent performance. -
BMD Gross Margin Stability
Q: Are you concerned about downward pressure on BMD's gross margins, which have been around 15%?
A: Competition is always present, but our growth in general line and millwork items, which are higher-margin, has been holding margins steady. From where we sit now, we feel good about our margins. -
Inventory Levels and Demand Trends
Q: How are your inventory levels relative to normal, and what does this mean amid current demand trends?
A: We are in really good shape, at normal inventory levels. In OSB, we worked hard to reduce our position before the price decline. We are ready to meet customer needs promptly, and overall, we're well-positioned. -
EWP Pricing Erosion
Q: Do you expect EWP prices to stabilize after Q2?
A: We recently saw sequential declines of about 4%, and we expect this to moderate to between 0% and negative 4%. Beyond that, it's difficult to say; it will depend on market demand. -
Capital Allocation Amid Uncertainty
Q: Given uncertainty around housing and remodeling, how are you approaching share repurchases versus maintaining more dry powder?
A: We have the balance sheet to execute our expanded capital program and anticipate moving forward. We have plenty of optionality and will be thoughtful and prudent, balancing M&A opportunities and returning capital to shareholders. -
Geographic Variations in Demand
Q: Were there any geographic variations in Q1 or April in terms of demand?
A: There weren't any unique variations; demand was steady and consistent across our franchise.