Executive Summary

Q1 2025 EPS missed consensus while revenue slightly beat: Diluted EPS $1.06 vs $1.29 consensus*, revenue $1.54B vs $1.53B consensus*; Adjusted EBITDA $91.6M vs $102.1M consensus* .
Segment pressure from engineered wood products (EWP) pricing and Oakdale downtime: Wood Products EBITDA fell 58% YoY to $40.2M; BMD gross margin was 14.7%, down 40 bps YoY .
Management guided to sequential Q2 improvement in EWP and BMD: EWP volumes mid- to high-single-digit increase; EWP pricing low-single-digit decline; Oakdale restart still a ~$5M headwind; April BMD daily sales pace +13% vs Q1 run rate .
Capital deployment remains active: 2025 capex $220–$240M; dividend $0.21; ~$71M buybacks through April and ~1.1M shares still authorized .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

March sales velocity improved, and April accelerated: BMD April daily sales pace was ~13% higher than Q1’s $22.3M/day; management expects BMD EBITDA margin to return to mid‑5% in Q2 .
Liquidity and balance sheet strength: Cash $561.8M and undrawn revolver $395.7M, total liquidity $957.5M; debt $450.0M .
Strategic projects on schedule: Oakdale modernization phasing back online by end of Q2; Thorsby I‑line expected to be operational in H1 2026 .

Management quote: “Our team delivered solid results during the quarter when considering an environment influenced by constrained demand, difficult weather, and planned downtime at our Oakdale veneer and plywood mill.” — CEO Nate Jorgensen .

What Went Wrong

EPS and EBITDA missed Street: EPS $1.06 vs $1.29 consensus*, Adjusted EBITDA $91.6M vs $102.1M consensus* .
EWP pricing pressure and competitive intensity persisted: LVL and I‑joist prices −3% sequential and −9% YoY; management flagged continued competition for share .
Oakdale downtime materially impacted profitability: ~$8M year‑over‑year impact in Q1 and ~$7M sequential; expected additional ~$5M headwind in Q2 .

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Sales ($USD)	$1,713,724,000	$1,567,480,000	$1,536,494,000
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$2.33	$1.78	$1.06
Income from Operations ($USD)	$117,356,000	$92,719,000	$54,519,000
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD)	$154,480,000	$128,655,000	$91,607,000
EBIT Margin %	6.8% (117,356 ÷ 1,713,724)	5.9% (92,719 ÷ 1,567,480)	3.6% (54,519 ÷ 1,536,494)

Segment breakdown:

Segment Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Wood Products Sales ($USD)	$453,896,000	$419,670,000	$415,845,000
Wood Products Segment Income ($USD)	$53,853,000	$33,583,000	$17,709,000
Wood Products Segment EBITDA ($USD)	$77,404,000	$56,581,000	$40,195,000
BMD Sales ($USD)	$1,567,466,000	$1,438,785,000	$1,407,116,000
BMD Segment Income ($USD)	$74,821,000	$70,701,000	$48,417,000
BMD Segment EBITDA ($USD)	$87,749,000	$84,459,000	$62,779,000

KPIs:

KPI	Q1 2025	YoY Change	Seq Change
LVL volume (MCF)	4,616	—	—
I‑joist volume (MELF)	54,711	—	—
Plywood volume (MSF 3/8")	362,779	—	—
LVL net price ($/CF)	$26.09	−9%	−3%
I‑joist net price ($/MELF)	$1,833	−9%	−3%
Plywood net price ($/MSF 3/8")	$341	−10%	−3%
BMD Gross Margin %	14.7%	−40 bps	—
BMD Sales Mix: Commodity / General Line / EWP	36.7% / 42.6% / 20.7%	—	—
BMD EBITDA Margin %	4.5%	−110 bps vs 5.6% in Q1 2024	—

Q1 2025 vs Wall Street consensus (S&P Global):

Metric	Consensus*	Actual
Revenue ($USD)	$1,526,222,950*	$1,536,494,000
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$1.285*	$1.06
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD)	$102,122,880*	$91,607,000

Values retrieved from S&P Global for consensus metrics (*).

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
EWP volumes	Q2 2025	—	Mid- to high-single-digit sequential increase	New (directional)
EWP pricing	Q2 2025	—	Low-single-digit sequential decline	New (directional)
Plywood volumes	Q2 2025	—	Mid-single-digit sequential increase; pricing in line with Q1 avg	New (directional)
Oakdale impact	Q2 2025	—	~$(5)M sequential headwind	New
Depreciation & Amortization	Q2 2025	—	~$38M	New
Effective tax rate	Q2 2025	—	~26%	New
Diluted shares outstanding	4/30/2025	—	~37.6M	New
2025 Capex	FY 2025	$220–$240M (Feb guidance)	$220–$240M reaffirmed	Maintained
Quarterly dividend	Q2 2025	$0.21 (Feb)	$0.21 declared for June 18 payment	Maintained
Share repurchase authorization	Ongoing	~2.0M shares (as of Oct 2024)	~1.1M shares remaining	Lower (due to repurchases)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q3 2024 (Prev-2)	Q4 2024 (Prev-1)	Q1 2025 (Current)	Trend
Tariffs/supply chain	Pricing/input cost volatility highlighted; tariff risks noted	Tariffs could impact pricing/input costs	Limited tariff impact; pass-through where needed; some import exposure in general line metals	Stable, manageable
EWP pricing & competition	Lower LVL/I‑joist prices; competitive dynamics pressured margins	EWP prices lower YoY; segment income down	Expect low-single-digit sequential price decline; competition for share persists	Ongoing pressure
BMD profitability	GM down on commodity/EWP; EBITDA 5.6%	GM flat; EBITDA 5.9%	GM 14.7% (−40 bps YoY); EBITDA margin 4.5%; April pace supportive of mid‑5% in Q2	Normalizing into Q2
Operational execution	Normal seasonality through winter	Strong balance sheet entering 2025	March rebound; April pace +13% sequential; order files improved seasonally	Improving activity
Strategic projects	—	Capex plan incl. Oakdale and Thorsby	Oakdale phased restart by end Q2; Thorsby I‑line H1 2026	On track

Management Commentary

Strategy and resilience: “Our clear focus on strategic investments and returns of capital… bolstered by the strength of our balance sheet and our constructive view on the long‑term demand drivers underlying residential construction.” — CEO Nate Jorgensen .
EWP near-term outlook: “We expect EWP volumes to increase by mid- to high-single digits sequentially… and experience low-single-digit sequential declines in EWP pricing as competition for share persists.” — CFO Kelly Hibbs .
Oakdale restart phasing: “Partial operating status at Oakdale is expected to negatively impact our financial results by roughly $5M in the second quarter… impacted machine centers are restarting in phases.” — CFO Kelly Hibbs .
BMD momentum: “April's daily sales pace… approximately 13% higher than the first quarter 2025 sales pace of $22.3M per day.” — CFO Kelly Hibbs .
Tariffs exposure contained: “Relatively, the impact is very, very modest today… mainly in general line metal products; philosophy is to pass along cost changes.” — CEO Nate Jorgensen .

Q&A Highlights

EWP pricing and competition: Management guided to low-single-digit sequential price declines and continued competition for share until demand strengthens .
Oakdale impact and veneer sourcing: ~$5M sequential Q2 headwind; open-market veneer purchases had already affected Q4/Q1, limiting incremental cost impact in Q2 .
BMD margin trajectory: Management confident in returning to mid‑5% EBITDA margin in Q2 given improved sales pace and seasonal mix .
Inventory positioning: BMD leaned into winter buys; dealers lean overall and relying on distribution — positioning supportive of service levels .
Doors/millwork strategy: Growth across legacy and newly acquired shops; greenfield Hondo, TX ~80% complete for initial startup by end of Q3 2025 .

Estimates Context

EPS missed; revenue beat slightly; EBITDA missed. Expect near-term estimate revisions to reduce EPS/EBITDA given EWP pricing pressure and Oakdale’s Q2 headwind, partially offset by stronger April BMD run-rate and expected sequential volume improvements in EWP .
Consensus snapshot for Q1 2025: EPS $1.285*, revenue $1,526,222,950*, EBITDA $102,122,880* vs actual $1.06, $1,536,494,000, and $91,607,000 respectively .
Values retrieved from S&P Global for consensus metrics (*).

Key Takeaways for Investors

Near-term set-up: EPS/EBITDA miss driven by EWP pricing and Oakdale downtime; however April sales acceleration and seasonal EWP volume uplift should support sequential improvement in Q2 .
Segment mix matters: BMD GM at 14.7% with potential to revert to ~15% as demand normalizes and product mix improves into peak building season .
Watch EWP pricing: Management still sees low-single-digit sequential price declines; competitive intensity likely caps margin recovery without stronger starts .
Oakdale cadence: Expect ~$5M Q2 headwind; full restart by end of Q2 should position Wood Products for better conversion costs and supply into H2 .
Capital discipline: Reaffirmed 2025 capex $220–$240M for strategic EWP capacity and BMD footprint; dividend maintained at $0.21; continued buybacks with ~1.1M shares authorized remaining .
Balance sheet optionality: ~$957.5M liquidity provides flexibility to pursue organic projects and opportunistic M&A as the market evolves .
Trading implications: Expect estimate trimming on EPS/EBITDA; stock likely sensitive to signs of demand stabilization (order files, builder starts) and confirmation of BMD margin recovery in Q2 .

BOISE CASCADE Co (BCC)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary