Sign in

    BOISE CASCADE (BCC)

    BCC Q1 2025: 13% Daily Sales Pace Jump Fuels $200M Q2 Revenue Gain

    Reported on May 6, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$87.48Last close (May 6, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$88.13Open (May 7, 2025)
    Price Change
    $0.65(+0.74%)
    • Robust 2-step distribution model: Customers rely on Boise Cascade’s two-step distribution to manage inventory and offset supply chain disruptions, which supports steady service levels and revenue even in a challenging market [doc 5].
    • Rising sales momentum in BMD: The Q&A highlights a 13% sequential increase in daily sales pace, projecting approximately $200 million sequential revenue growth in Q2 and improved EBITDA margins [doc 8].
    • Sustainable margin profile and competitive positioning: Executives reaffirm that achieving a 15% gross margin is attainable despite pricing pressures, underscoring an effective operating model and resilient competitive positioning [doc 10].
    • Margin Pressure from Weak Demand: Q&A participants highlighted that weak residential housing starts and low single-digit sequential declines in EWP pricing could continue to squeeze margins, making it challenging to offset current cost pressures.
    • Ongoing Operational Disruptions: The persistent impact of the Oakdale facility outage—estimated to cost about $5 million sequentially—remains a headwind, potentially dragging further EBITDA performance.
    • Intensifying Competitive Pressures: Executives noted stiff competition among EWP producers, where pricing pressures and the need to support a 2-step distribution model may erode market share and profit margins.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    Down 6.6% (from $1,645.4M in Q1 2024 to $1,536.5M in Q1 2025)

    Total revenue declined largely due to the combined effects of lower revenue in both segments. The Wood Products segment fell by about 11%, and Building Materials Distribution revenue dropped by roughly 6.4%, reflecting the impact of pricing, volume pressures, and cost challenges compared to the previous period.

    Wood Products Revenue

    Down 11% (from $468.9M in Q1 2024 to $415.8M in Q1 2025)

    Despite strong gains in key sub‐segments (LVL and I‑Joists), overall Wood Products revenue declined due to lower sales in other components, likely driven by market headwinds, modernization project downtimes, and weakening demand relative to prior Q1 performance.

    Building Materials Distribution Revenue

    Down 6.4% (from $1,505.0M in Q1 2024 to $1,407.1M in Q1 2025)

    The decline was primarily due to a 13% drop in the EWP sub‐segment and a 6.5% reduction in the Commodity sub‐segment, underscoring the impact of lower sales prices/margins and volume pressures compared to the previous period.

    LVL Revenue

    Up 32% (from $12.6M in Q1 2024 to $16.7M in Q1 2025)

    LVL revenue rebounded dramatically thanks to an increase in sales volumes and effective market strategies that capitalized on improved demand. This strong recovery is notable given the previous period’s challenges with price declines.

    I‑Joists Revenue

    Up 67% (from $6.7M in Q1 2024 to $11.2M in Q1 2025)

    A 67% surge in I‑Joists revenue was driven by significant improvements in sales volumes and favorable pricing adjustments, which starkly contrast with prior period pressures despite an overall decline in Wood Products revenue.

    EWP Sub‐Segment Revenue

    Down 13% (from $335.1M in Q1 2024 to $290.5M in Q1 2025)

    The 13% decrease in EWP revenue reflects lower sales prices and volumes for key engineered wood products, likely due to cost pressures and softer market conditions compared to the previous period.

    Commodity Sub‐Segment Revenue

    Down 6.5% (from $553.0M in Q1 2024 to $516.9M in Q1 2025)

    Commodity revenue fell due to declining gross margins and reduced sales volumes, highlighting the continued pressure on commodity pricing and a shift in sales mix relative to Q1 2024.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Plywood Volumes

    Q2 2025

    Expected to decline mid- to high single digits sequentially, with negative impacts of $7M

    Expected to see mid-single-digit sequential volume increases

    raised

    Plywood Pricing

    Q2 2025

    Quarter-to-date realizations are 3% below Q4 2024 averages

    Quarter-to-date realizations are consistent with the Q1 2025 average

    raised

    EWP Volumes

    Q2 2025

    Expected to increase modestly from Q4 2024 levels

    Expected to increase by mid- to high single digits sequentially

    raised

    EWP Pricing

    Q2 2025

    Expected to reflect low single-digit sequential declines

    Anticipated to experience low single-digit sequential declines

    no change

    BMD Sales Pace

    Q2 2025

    Quarter-to-date daily sales pace is about 8% below Q4 2024 daily sales averages

    April 2025 daily sales pace approximately 13% higher than the Q1 2025 pace of $22.3M per day, reaching $25M/day

    raised

    BMD Margins

    Q2 2025

    Q1 2025 margins may fall below 5%

    Expected to improve in Q2 2025, with EBITDA margins anticipated to return to the mid-5% range

    raised

    Impact of Oakdale Facility

    Q2 2025

    no prior guidance

    Expected to negatively impact Q2 2025 financial results by approximately $5M

    no prior guidance

    Depreciation and Amortization

    Q2 2025

    no prior guidance

    Approximately $38 million for Q2 2025

    no prior guidance

    Effective Tax Rate

    Q2 2025

    no prior guidance

    Estimated at 26% for Q2 2025

    no prior guidance

    Shareholder Returns

    Q2 2025

    no prior guidance

    $0.21 per share quarterly dividend approved

    no prior guidance

    Capital Expenditures (Annual)

    FY 2025

    Projected to be between $220 million and $240 million

    Projected to be between $220 million and $240 million

    no change

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Two‑step distribution model

    In Q3 2024, executives detailed its role in supporting new SKU introductions, simplifying order fulfillment, and underpinning supplier and customer relationships.

    Q1 2025 renewed focus on its ability to provide out‑of‑warehouse support, just‑in‑time services, and flexibility via a national footprint.

    Continued emphasis with an enhanced focus on service flexibility.

    Sales Momentum in BMD and General Line Products

    Q2–Q4 2024 discussions highlighted incremental gains in sales pace, resilient general line performance, and margin strength despite seasonal challenges.

    Q1 2025 noted a 13% acceleration in daily sales pace and demonstrated confidence in margin recovery, driven by improved execution in the Building Materials Division.

    Strengthening sales momentum and improving execution.

    Margin Sustainability & Pricing Pressures

    In Q2–Q4 2024, margin pressures were discussed in the context of commodity/EWP pricing headwinds and competitive dynamics affecting both gross and EBITDA margins.

    Q1 2025 reported a decline in BMD gross margins (down 40 basis points YOY) and lower EBITDA margins due to continued pricing pressures and competitive challenges.

    Ongoing concerns with margins under pressure despite strategic actions.

    Competition in EWP / Price Erosion

    Earlier periods (especially Q4 2024) focused on modest price declines driven by intensifying competition among EWP producers, with Q3 noting sequential declines in I‑joist/LVL pricing.

    In Q1 2025, competitive pressures led to a 3% sequential price decline in EWP pricing, with expectations of similar low‑digit declines continuing.

    Consistent and intensifying competitive pressures leading to ongoing price erosion.

    Operational Disruptions (Oakdale)

    Q4 2024 noted a full‑quarter downtime with an estimated negative impact of $7M; Q3 2024 described reduced capacity and planned mitigation, while Q2 2024 had no specific mention.

    Q1 2025 disclosed an $8M YOY and $7M sequential EBITDA impact due to a scheduled outage at the Oakdale facility, with an anticipated additional $5M hit in Q2 2025.

    A persistent operational challenge with consistently negative EBITDA impacts.

    Customer Demand Trends

    Across Q2–Q4 2024, weak residential housing starts, declining home sizes, and evolving design complexities were discussed (e.g., 6% declines and shifting home types).

    Q1 2025 cited modest declines (2% overall housing starts, 6% in single‑family) and noted regional variations influencing product mix demand.

    Persistent demand weakness with ongoing evolution in home design affecting product demand.

    Tariff Impacts & Domestic Manufacturing

    Q4 2024 addressed potential tariff impacts—cost pressures on imports and the mitigating advantage of predominantly U.S. manufacturing; Q3 and Q2 2024 did not mention this topic.

    Q1 2025 reaffirmed that the tariff impact is modest due to a strong domestic production base and effective cost pass‑through strategies.

    A renewed focus with consistent domestic manufacturing advantages easing tariff risks.

    Product Mix Shifts & Warehouse Sales

    Q2–Q4 2024 discussions highlighted shifts toward higher‑margin products (e.g., LVL growth, modest I‑joist declines), along with rising warehouse sales as customers relied on strong inventory positions.

    Q1 2025 emphasized trends in I‑joists and a strategic product mix enhancement tied to its two‑step distribution model, reinforcing the role of warehouse sales in managing working capital.

    A continued strategic emphasis on higher‑margin mix and distribution efficiency.

    Capital Return Strategies, Share Repurchases & M&A

    Q2–Q4 2024 saw a balanced approach including significant dividends, consistent share repurchases, and a deliberate stance on pursuing M&A when opportunities fit the strategy.

    Q1 2025 continued with robust shareholder returns—$10M dividends and $71M repurchases—with a cautious view on near‑term M&A due to ongoing uncertainty.

    A steady commitment to capital returns with slightly reduced M&A activity amid uncertainty.

    Commodity/Energy Price Uncertainties

    Q2–Q4 2024 discussions included mentions of commodity pricing fluctuations affecting margins and some seasonal energy cost factors, with Q3 notably highlighting anticipated pricing erosion.

    Q1 2025 did not specifically mention commodity or energy cost uncertainties in the context of margin pressures.

    A notable fade in emphasis on commodity and energy cost uncertainties compared to prior periods.

    1. Margin Outlook
      Q: Is 15% gross margin attainable in BMD?
      A: Management confirmed that 15% remains achievable due to improved product mix and seasonal trends.

    2. EBITDA Guidance
      Q: Will BMD margins reach mid-5% next quarter?
      A: They expect a rebound to mid-5% margins in Q2, driven by stronger sales pace and normalized operations.

    3. Sales Momentum
      Q: What’s driving the improved daily sales pace?
      A: A daily pace nearing $25M in April, reflecting better weather and solid execution amid competitive EWP dynamics, boosts revenue outlook.

    4. Capacity Utilization
      Q: How is current capacity utilization compared historically?
      A: Operating rates are around 75–80%, with April showing slightly higher levels, indicating efficient production scaling.

    5. Capital Allocation
      Q: What are the buyback and M&A priorities?
      A: Management is concentrating on organic projects and opportunistic buybacks while noting minimal recent M&A activity.

    6. Tariff Impact
      Q: Are tariffs significantly affecting the supply chain?
      A: Tariffs are having only a modest effect—mainly on imported metal products—since most production is domestic.

    7. EWP Pricing
      Q: What is the expected Q2 trend for EWP pricing?
      A: They anticipate a similar low single-digit decline, approximately 3%, maintaining competitive pressure.

    8. Distribution Model
      Q: How does 2-step distribution support inventory management?
      A: The model is key for just-in-time service and easing working capital pressures by providing out-of-warehouse support.

    9. Oakdale Ramp
      Q: How is the Oakdale project progressing?
      A: The facility restart is on schedule, with production shifting back to support EWP volumes as residual veneer is reallocated.

    10. Oakdale Impact
      Q: Is the Oakdale impact of $5M sequential?
      A: Yes, the $5M negative impact is sequential, with veneer purchasing adjustments offsetting additional costs.

    11. LDL Volume
      Q: What is the trend in LDL volume performance?
      A: LDL volumes are now outpacing production, reflecting improved share gains and a seasonal recovery.

    12. I-Joist Decline
      Q: What drives the double-digit decline in I-joist volume?
      A: The decline primarily results from lower housing starts rather than a loss in market share.

    13. Inventory Levels
      Q: How have Q1 inventories changed from last year?
      A: Inventories increased modestly as proactive stocking aligns with a distribution-friendly market environment.

    14. Supplier Consolidation
      Q: How will recent supplier transactions impact operations?
      A: Management remains focused on strong relationships, viewing consolidation as a continuing trend that supports operational resilience.

    15. Volume Trends
      Q: Are volumes returning to pre-pandemic levels?
      A: I-joist and LVL volumes have normalized, driven by shifts in home design and market mix rather than just overall volume changes.

    Research analysts covering BOISE CASCADE.