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BOISE CASCADE Co (BCC)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 was materially weaker YoY: sales fell 3% to $1.668B and diluted EPS declined to $0.58 from $2.33, driven by wood products pricing pressure and lower EWP/plywood volumes; BMD remained resilient with flat volumes but margin compression to 15.1% gross margin and 4.5% EBITDA margin .
  • Results vs consensus: revenue beat ($1.668B vs $1.6238B*) but EPS missed ($0.58 vs $0.6883*); prior quarters saw EPS misses and mixed revenue outcomes—Q1 revenue beat, Q2 slight revenue miss*.
  • Guidance points to a seasonally and macro-driven softer Q4: Wood Products EBITDA break-even to $15M; BMD EBITDA $40–$55M; EWP volumes down low double-digits to mid-teens sequentially; effective tax rate guided lower to 26–27% (vs 29% in Q3) .
  • Capital return catalysts: new $300M share repurchase authorization and $0.22 quarterly dividend declared (payable Dec 17, 2025) may support the stock; management also indicated EWP pricing has “stabilized” and is likely at a bottom heading into 2026 .

Note: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • BMD held volumes flat YoY and expanded general line product sales (+6% YoY), demonstrating share capture and strong execution; management emphasized next-day service as a differentiator .
    • EWP pricing stabilization: “prices have remained flat…we feel like we’re at a bottom and can move higher at some point in 2026” .
    • Capital allocation strength: ~$120M repurchases YTD through October and a new $300M authorization; continued dividend payments and ample liquidity ($907M) underpin flexibility .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Wood Products swung to a segment loss (-$12.1M) with EBITDA down to $14.5M from $77.4M YoY as EWP and plywood prices/volumes contracted and per-unit conversion costs rose amid lower run rates .
    • Margin compression: BMD gross margin to 15.1% (-60 bps YoY) and EBITDA margin to 4.5% (down from 5.6% YoY and 5.7% in Q2), pressured by commodities and EWP pricing .
    • Q4 outlook implies further sequential declines (EWP volumes down low-double to mid-teens; plywood volumes down near double-digit), plus potential maintenance/market downtime across mills .

Financial Results

  • Consolidated results vs prior periods and consensus
MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD)$1,536,494,000 $1,740,114,000 $1,667,806,000
Diluted EPS ($)$1.06 $1.64 $0.58
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD)$91,607,000 $119,000,000 $74,381,000
Revenue Consensus ($USD)$1,526,222,950*$1,747,091,440*$1,623,763,530*
EPS Consensus ($)$1.285*$1.74167*$0.68833*
  • Segment breakdown
Segment MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Wood Products Sales ($USD)$415,845,000 $447,235,000 $396,401,000
Wood Products EBITDA ($USD)$40,195,000 $37,292,000 $14,506,000
Wood Products EBITDA Margin (%)9.7% 8.3% 3.7%
BMD Sales ($USD)$1,407,116,000 $1,614,915,000 $1,556,150,000
BMD EBITDA ($USD)$62,779,000 $91,848,000 $69,831,000
BMD EBITDA Margin (%)4.5% 5.7% 4.5%
BMD Gross Margin (%)14.7% 15.4% 15.1%
  • KPIs (operations and pricing)
KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
LVL Sales Volume (MCF)4,616 5,457 4,612
I-Joist Sales Volume (MELF)54,711 62,469 53,232
Plywood Net Sales Price ($/MSF 3/8")$341 $342 $325
I-Joist Mill Net Sales Price ($/MELF)$1,833 $1,801 $1,684
LVL Mill Net Sales Price ($/CF)$26.09 $25.22 $24.03

Highlights and comparisons for Q3 2025:

  • Revenue: $1.668B, -3% YoY; EPS: $0.58, -75% YoY; Adjusted EBITDA: $74.4M, -52% YoY .
  • Wood Products: Sales $396.4M (-13% YoY), EBITDA $14.5M (-81% YoY); LVL/I-joist prices down 13%/12% YoY; plywood ASP $325 (-2% YoY, -5% QoQ) .
  • BMD: Sales $1.556B (-1% YoY), EBITDA margin 4.5% vs 5.6% YoY; general line sales +6% YoY; EWP sales -11% YoY .

Note: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Wood Products EBITDA ($)Q4 2025Not guided priorBreak-even to $15M New range (cautious)
BMD EBITDA ($)Q4 2025Not guided prior$40–$55M New range (seasonal slowdown)
Effective Tax Rate (%)Q4 2025N/A (Q3 actual 29%) 26–27% Lower vs Q3 actual
EWP Volumes (seq.)Q4 2025N/ADown low double-digits to mid-teens Decline
EWP Prices (seq.)Q4 2025Low-to-mid single-digit decline guided for Q3 Low single-digit decline; “stabilized” Maintained/stabilizing
Plywood Volumes (seq.)Q4 2025Mid-single-digit increase guided for Q3 Down near double-digits Lowered
Capital Expenditures ($)FY 2025$220–$240M $230–$250M Raised
Capital Expenditures ($)FY 2026N/A prior$150–$170M New
DividendQ4 2025Raised to $0.22 (Jul) $0.22 declared; payable Dec 17, 2025 Maintained
Share Repurchase AuthorizationOngoingRemaining under prior program New $300M authorization; $120M repurchased YTD New/expanded

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025)Previous Mentions (Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
EWP pricing/dynamicsAnticipated modest price erosion in Q2 amid muted demand Guided low-to-mid single-digit sequential price declines; competitive pressure; destocking Prices “stabilized”; likely at bottom; modest sequential declines in Q4 Stabilizing after declines
Distribution value (two-step), general line expansionEmphasis on strong balance sheet and service standards Gross margin resilience via general line; next-day out-of-warehouse service General line +6% YoY; execution and share capture; next-day service emphasized Positive; mix shift supports margins
Housing starts/macroSeasonally slower, elevated rates dampening sentiment Affordability and uncertainty; slower demand 2026 starts seen similar to 2025; gradual improvement later in year on rate cuts Cautious near term; constructive medium term
Tariffs/trade policyN/APricing volatility risks for commodities South American plywood tariffs’ impact “yet to create meaningful impact”; US→Canada EWP tariff noted Watch as potential volatility driver
Capex/asset optimization (Oakdale/Thorsby)Planned modernization downtime at Oakdale Oakdale modernization substantially complete; Hondo DC opening Oakdale optimization continues; Thorsby line operational H1’26 Execution progressing
Liquidity/capital returnsStrong cash, buybacks initiated Buybacks continued; dividend raised to $0.22 New $300M repurchase authorization; dividend maintained Shareholder-friendly
Door & Millwork, multifamilyN/AEmphasis on general line and home center special orders Door/Millwork investments; green shoots in multifamily; operational improvements planned Building capabilities

Management Commentary

  • “Our two-step distribution model, in tandem with our market leading EWP and plywood franchises, will continue to deliver exceptional value…providing reliable access to products, responsive service, and operational flexibility that are vital in dynamic markets.” — CEO Nate Jorgensen .
  • “EWP prices have remained flat…we feel like we’re at a bottom and we can move higher at some point in 2026.” — Troy Little and CEO Nate Jorgensen .
  • “BMD’s third-quarter EBITDA margin is below our normalized level of earnings power, but a very good result given demand and pricing dynamics.” — CFO Kelly Hibbs .
  • “BMD’s daily sales pace in October was approximately 5% below the third-quarter sales pace of $24.3 million per day…” — CFO Kelly Hibbs .
  • “Our board of directors recently authorized up to $300 million of common stock repurchases under a new share repurchase program.” — CFO Kelly Hibbs .

Q&A Highlights

  • General line growth and margin: Investments in capacity and SKU breadth, home center special orders, specialty dealer, and multifamily helped capture share; margin opportunity improves as general line mix grows .
  • EWP competitive dynamics: Stabilization since August; prior quarter pressures included a 25% tariff on shipments into Canada; builders’ focus on cycle times supports EWP value proposition .
  • Door & Millwork: Operations improving with new facilities; expect growth even in a tepid demand environment as execution improves .
  • Inventory and seasonality: BMD EBITDA margin could dip into “high threes” seasonally in Q4; inventory rises reflect footprint growth and staying in-stock to serve next-day demand .
  • Capital allocation: Absent meaningful M&A, management expects to remain active with repurchases under the new $300M program .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025: Revenue beat ($1.668B vs $1.624B*), EPS miss ($0.58 vs $0.69*); YoY revenue -3%, EPS -75% .
  • Q2 2025: Slight revenue miss ($1.740B vs $1.747B*), EPS miss ($1.64 vs $1.74*); EBITDA $119.0M .
  • Q1 2025: Revenue beat ($1.536B vs $1.526B*), EPS miss ($1.06 vs $1.29*) .
  • Forward adjustments: Consensus likely needs to reflect Q4 guidance bands (Wood Products breakeven–$15M; BMD $40–$55M) and seasonally lower sales pace and margins; tax rate guided down to 26–27% may slightly aid Q4 EPS .

Note: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Mix resilience: BMD’s general line growth and next-day service continue to offset commodity/EWP pressures; watch the mix shift as a margin lever .
  • Near-term caution: Q4 guidance implies sequential volume declines and potential downtime; expect seasonal EBITDA margin compression across segments .
  • Pricing inflection watch: Management believes EWP pricing has bottomed and could improve into 2026; plywood ASPs remain weak with uncertain tariff impact .
  • Capital returns: New $300M buyback and continued dividends provide downside support and optionality; liquidity remains strong ($907M) .
  • 2026 setup: Capex stepping down to $150–$170M with key projects (Oakdale optimization, Thorsby line) positioning for operating leverage when demand recovers .
  • Macro sensitivity: Housing starts expected similar to 2025 with gradual improvement later in 2026 on rate cuts; channel inventories lean, raising the chance of price tension if demand surprises .
  • Trading implications: Into the print window, the buyback/dividend can cushion sentiment, but guidance-driven seasonality and commodity volatility argue for cautious positioning near term; upside skew tied to early signs of EWP pricing/tariff or multifamily project flow-through .

Note: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.