Sign in

You're signed outSign in or to get full access.

BC

BOISE CASCADE Co (BCC)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue was $1.57B and diluted EPS was $1.78; both declined sequentially and year over year as EWP and plywood pricing headwinds weighed on Wood Products, while BMD margins held up despite softer volumes .
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $128.7M, down from $154.5M in Q3 and $160.6M in Q4 2023; BMD EBITDA margin improved to 5.9% on warehouse reliance and commodity tailwinds, but Wood Products EBITDA fell on price erosion in EWP and plywood .
  • 2025 capex guided to $220–$240M, focused on EWP capacity (Thorsby I‑joists) and Oakdale modernization; Q1 2025 to absorb ~$7M negative cost from Oakdale downtime and softer sales pace, with EWP pricing expected to see low-single-digit sequential declines .
  • Liquidity remained strong ($713M cash, $396M undrawn revolver); capital returns continued with a $0.21 quarterly dividend declared and ~1.75M shares repurchased over 13 months, leaving ~1.6M shares authorized for buyback .
  • Consensus estimates from S&P Global were unavailable at time of retrieval; estimate comparisons are therefore not provided.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • BMD delivered resilient profitability: gross margin percentage rose to 15.8% (+60 bps YoY), and EBITDA margin reached 5.9% on stronger warehouse pull-through and commodity margin tailwinds .
  • LVL volume grew 11% YoY in Q4 despite single-family starts down 4%; management attributed share gains to tight alignment across manufacturing and distribution and a strong LVL value proposition in beams/headers .
  • Balance sheet strength and disciplined capital allocation continued: $713M cash, $1.11B total liquidity; dividend maintained at $0.21 and buybacks ongoing with ~1.6M shares remaining on authorization .

What Went Wrong

  • Wood Products faced price erosion: LVL and I-joist average selling prices down ~10% YoY; plywood price -7% YoY, driving segment EBITDA down to $56.6M from $92.7M YoY .
  • Consolidated results declined: sales fell to $1.57B (−7% vs Q3, −5% YoY), EPS to $1.78 (from $2.33 in Q3 and $2.44 YoY), and Adjusted EBITDA to $128.7M (from $154.5M in Q3 and $160.6M YoY) .
  • Near-term headwinds flagged: Q1 plywood volumes expected mid- to high-single-digit declines, pricing ~3% below Q4 average to date; Oakdale downtime to drive ~$7M cost headwind; quarter-to-date BMD daily sales pace ~8% below Q4 .

Financial Results

Consolidated Revenue, EPS, EBITDA vs Prior Periods

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Sales ($USD Millions)$1,797.7 $1,713.7 $1,567.5
Diluted EPS ($)$2.84 $2.33 $1.78
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$181.2 $154.5 $128.7
Income from Operations ($USD Millions)$147.0 $117.4 $92.7

Year-over-Year Comparison (Q4)

MetricQ4 2023Q4 2024
Sales ($USD Millions)$1,644.3 $1,567.5
Diluted EPS ($)$2.44 $1.78
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$160.6 $128.7
Income from Operations ($USD Millions)$121.2 $92.7

Segment Performance

Segment MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Wood Products Sales ($USD Millions)$489.8 $453.9 $419.7
Wood Products Segment Income ($USD Millions)$72.8 $53.9 $33.6
Wood Products Segment EBITDA ($USD Millions)$95.1 $77.4 $56.6
BMD Sales ($USD Millions)$1,655.2 $1,567.5 $1,438.8
BMD Segment Income ($USD Millions)$85.4 $74.8 $70.7
BMD Segment EBITDA ($USD Millions)$97.1 $87.7 $84.5

KPIs and Operating Metrics

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
BMD Gross Margin %14.8% 15.7% 15.8%
BMD EBITDA Margin %5.9% 5.6% 5.9%
LVL Price YoY−7% −5% −10%
LVL Volume YoY+8% ~0% +11%
I‑Joist Price YoY−6% −6% −10%
I‑Joist Volume YoY+5% −8% −2%
Plywood Price YoY−1% −13% −7%
Plywood Volume (MM feet)383 391 371

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Capital Expenditures ($USD Millions)FY 2025$200–$220M (Nov 2024 PR) $220–$240M (Feb 2025 PR) Raised
EWP PricingQ1 2025N/ALow single-digit sequential declines expected New/Directional
EWP VolumesQ1 2025N/AModest sequential increase vs Q4 New/Directional
Plywood VolumesQ1 2025N/AMid- to high-single-digit sequential declines New/Directional
Plywood PricingQ1 2025N/AQTD ~3% below Q4 average New/Directional
Oakdale Modernization Cost ImpactQ1 2025N/A~$(7)M negative cost impact from downtime New
BMD Daily Sales PaceQ1 2025N/AQTD ~8% below Q4 daily averages New
DividendQ1 2025$0.21 declared Oct 30, 2024 $0.21 declared Feb 7, 2025 Maintained
Housing Starts ViewFY 20251.40M modestly above 2024 (Nov 2024 PR) ~1.35M, flat with 2024 (Q4 call) Lowered outlook vs prior view

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024)Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
EWP Pricing & CompetitionSequential declines; competitive backdrop; geography-driven pricing pressure Continued pressure; low single-digit sequential declines expected in Q4 Ongoing modest erosion with flattish housing; no new capacity; competition for share Persistent pressure
LVL/I‑Joist VolumesLVL +8% YoY; I‑joist +5% YoY; sequential growth LVL flat YoY; I‑joist −8% YoY; sequential declines LVL +11% YoY, I‑joist −2% YoY; sequential LVL −8%, I‑joist −10% LVL share gains vs softer I‑joist
Plywood Pricing/VolumesPrice −1% YoY, −4% seq; volume shift to EWP Price −13% YoY; volumes flat YoY Price −7% YoY; seq +5% early Q4 then seasonal decline; QTD ~3% below Q4 avg Stabilizing off lows, seasonal weakness
BMD Margin ProfileGM% 14.8%; EBITDA margin 5.9%; general line at record mix 42% GM% 15.7%; EBITDA margin 5.6%; mix resilience GM% 15.8%; EBITDA margin 5.9%; warehouse reliance and commodity tailwinds Steady to improving GM%
Tariffs/MacroAffordability constraints; cautious demand; underbuilt housing LT Affordability challenges; seasonality; cautious inventory Tariff uncertainty modeled; intent to pass-through in BMD; affordability risk to demand Policy risk elevated
Weather/Supply ChainN/ANormal seasonality and potential weather impacts Q1 start challenged by weather; downtime across sites Near-term headwind
Capex & Projects$250–$270M FY24; Oakdale modernization schedule; Thorsby I‑joists; Hondo DC FY25 capex $200–$220M FY25 capex $220–$240M; Oakdale down Q1, ~50% in Q2; greenfields progressing Increased spend vs Nov view
M&A & MillworkSmall Boise door/millwork acquisition BROSCO performing well; millwork footprint expanding Interest in distribution-side M&A; pipeline aligned to strategy Ongoing

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “Our consolidated fourth quarter sales of $1.6 billion were down 5%…Our net income was $68.9 million or $1.78 per share…As we look forward to 2025, uncertainties…will heavily influence the demand environment. However, our balance sheet remains strong…” .
  • CFO: “BMD’s fourth quarter gross margin percentage was 15.8%, up 60 basis points year-over-year…Commodity markets during the first half of the fourth quarter provided tailwinds…We expect plywood volumes to decline mid- to high single digits sequentially and…~$7 million [negative costs] due to Oakdale downtime” .
  • COO: “There is a real reliance [from dealers]…on our warehouse…more conversation…about net working capital and days on hand…we’re ready to serve every single day” .
  • Strategy: 2025 capex $220–$240M focused on EWP growth and modernization; continued shareholder returns via $0.21 dividend and opportunistic buybacks .

Q&A Highlights

  • Tariffs: Management modeled scenarios; BMD intends to pass through higher import costs to maintain margin; key risk is affordability-driven demand destruction .
  • EWP pricing: Expect continued modest erosion given competitive share dynamics and flattish single-family; no new capacity near-term .
  • BMD margins: Q4 EBITDA margin benefited from warehouse reliance and commodity tailwinds; Q1 EBITDA margin expected to erode given softer sales pace and lack of price tailwinds .
  • LVL share gains: 11% YoY volume growth driven by combined Wood Products/BMD selling efforts and product value in beams/headers .
  • Capex/Oakdale: Oakdale down entire Q1, ~50% in Q2, ~$7M Q1 cost impact; Thorsby I‑joist and greenfield DCs progressing .
  • Through-cycle BMD margin: Target mid‑5% EBITDA margin through a cycle, acknowledging temporary dips on weaker top-line .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus estimates from S&P Global were unavailable at the time of retrieval due to provider limits; therefore, explicit comparisons versus consensus for Q4 2024 revenue/EPS/EBITDA are not provided. Default comparisons anchor to company-reported actuals and prior periods [GetEstimates error: Daily Request Limit Exceeded].

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • BMD resilience offsets Wood Products pricing pressure: margin stability and warehouse reliance provide a buffer; watch commodity momentum and general line mix to sustain margins into spring .
  • Near-term caution: Q1 headwinds include weather, Oakdale downtime (~$7M), softer sales pace, and modest EWP price declines—position sizing should reflect potential EBITDA margin compression .
  • LVL outperformance: structural share gains and strong beams/headers applications underpin LVL volume strength even in a constrained starts backdrop; favor exposure to LVL within Wood Products .
  • Capex acceleration: increased 2025 capex to $220–$240M supports EWP capacity and modernization; monitor project execution and timing for benefits flowing into 2H 2025 .
  • Policy risk watch: potential tariffs could be margin-neutral in BMD via pass-through, but affordability shock is the key demand risk—track housing starts (~1.35M forecast) and rate trajectory .
  • Capital returns intact: $0.21 quarterly dividend and opportunistic buybacks continue; robust liquidity ($1.11B) allows flexibility for M&A aligned with distribution strategy .
  • Trading implications: Near-term set-ups likely favor pullbacks given Q1 guidance/seasonality; medium-term thesis anchored on EWP growth projects, stable BMD margins, and housing undersupply tailwinds .
Sources: 
Press Release (Q4/Full Year): **[1328581_be2f11c7ade543c58eecad0188490ea8_0]** **[1328581_be2f11c7ade543c58eecad0188490ea8_1]** **[1328581_be2f11c7ade543c58eecad0188490ea8_2]** **[1328581_be2f11c7ade543c58eecad0188490ea8_3]** **[1328581_be2f11c7ade543c58eecad0188490ea8_4]** **[1328581_be2f11c7ade543c58eecad0188490ea8_8]** **[1328581_be2f11c7ade543c58eecad0188490ea8_10]** **[1328581_be2f11c7ade543c58eecad0188490ea8_11]** **[1328581_be2f11c7ade543c58eecad0188490ea8_12]** **[1328581_be2f11c7ade543c58eecad0188490ea8_13]** **[1328581_be2f11c7ade543c58eecad0188490ea8_14]**; 
Form 8-K (Item 2.02): **[1328581_0001328581-25-000009_bcc-20250220.htm:0]** **[1328581_0001328581-25-000009_bccexhibit99112312024.htm:0]** **[1328581_0001328581-25-000009_bccexhibit99112312024.htm:6]** **[1328581_0001328581-25-000009_bccexhibit99112312024.htm:10]**; 
Earnings Call (Q4 2024): **[1328581_BCC_3417352_1]** **[1328581_BCC_3417352_2]** **[1328581_BCC_3417352_3]** **[1328581_BCC_3417352_4]** **[1328581_BCC_3417352_5]** **[1328581_BCC_3417352_11]** **[1328581_BCC_3417352_12]** **[1328581_BCC_3417352_13]** **[1328581_BCC_3417352_16]** **[1328581_BCC_3417352_17]**; 
Prior Quarter PR/Calls: Q3 2024 PR **[1328581_af184ab286fc4c1d9d68932741fbfe49_0]** **[1328581_af184ab286fc4c1d9d68932741fbfe49_1]** **[1328581_af184ab286fc4c1d9d68932741fbfe49_2]** **[1328581_af184ab286fc4c1d9d68932741fbfe49_3]** **[1328581_af184ab286fc4c1d9d68932741fbfe49_6]** **[1328581_af184ab286fc4c1d9d68932741fbfe49_7]** **[1328581_af184ab286fc4c1d9d68932741fbfe49_8]** **[1328581_af184ab286fc4c1d9d68932741fbfe49_11]**; Q3 Call **[1328581_BCC_3405767_3]** **[1328581_BCC_3405767_6]**; Q2 2024 PR **[1328581_ca60069918cb4feabff41bd10e9e9ecf_0]** **[1328581_ca60069918cb4feabff41bd10e9e9ecf_1]** **[1328581_ca60069918cb4feabff41bd10e9e9ecf_6]** **[1328581_ca60069918cb4feabff41bd10e9e9ecf_7]** **[1328581_ca60069918cb4feabff41bd10e9e9ecf_8]** **[1328581_ca60069918cb4feabff41bd10e9e9ecf_9]** **[1328581_ca60069918cb4feabff41bd10e9e9ecf_11]** **[1328581_ca60069918cb4feabff41bd10e9e9ecf_12]**; Q2 Call **[1328581_BCC_3396839_3]** **[1328581_BCC_3396839_4]** **[1328581_BCC_3396839_5]** **[1328581_BCC_3396839_10]** **[1328581_BCC_3396839_11]**; Dividend PR **[1328581_0044edeb9f8a4f94bd04d3f136d665fd_0]**.