BRINKS CO (BCO)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q1 2025 revenue of $1.247B grew 1% (organic +6%) with AMS/DRS up >20%; non-GAAP EPS $1.62 and adjusted EBITDA $215M were above the top end of company guidance, aided by strong execution and mix, while FX was a notable headwind . Versus S&P Global consensus, revenue and EPS beat ($1.247B vs $1.213B*, $1.62 vs $1.17*), while SPGI EBITDA was below its consensus (company-reported adjusted EBITDA was $215M) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
• Full-year 2025 framework affirmed (mid-single-digit organic growth, +30–50 bps EBITDA margin expansion, 40–45% FCF conversion) and Q2 guidance introduced: revenue $1.25–$1.30B, adj. EBITDA $205–$225M, non-GAAP EPS $1.25–$1.65 .
• Key positives: continued AMS/DRS momentum (now >25% of TTM revenue), record North America profitability, and a one-time spike in Global Services (precious metals) shipments; headwinds included FX (notably Mexico/Argentina) and lower Argentina interest income year over year .
• Capital returns accelerated: >1.3M shares repurchased YTD (~$110M) and a 5% dividend increase to $0.255 per share; remaining repurchase authorization ~$180M .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • AMS/DRS: “EBITDA and EPS exceeded the top end of our guidance range. Organic revenue growth of 6% included 20% growth in AMS and DRS… TTM these higher margin recurring revenue offerings now represent over 25% of revenue” .
  • Profitability/mix: “Operating profit was up 40 bps reflecting productivity, especially in North America, and revenue mix benefits” . Record first‑quarter profitability in NA; Europe growing DRS mix (42%) .
  • Global Services: Elevated precious metals shipments in Q1 drove Rest of World outperformance; company leveraged its network to capture demand .

• What Went Wrong

  • FX headwinds: Currency reduced revenue by $66M (about 5%), primarily Mexico and Argentina; Latin America reported revenue −8% YoY despite +7% organic growth .
  • Argentina interest income: Lower interest income as inflation moderates pressured margins YoY; headwind described as ~$4–5M per quarter in 2025 outlook .
  • Restructuring timing and global services normalization: Some restructuring actions shifted from Q1 to Q2; precious metals shipments moderated in April, tempering the near‑term boost to Global Services .

Financial Results

Overall financials (non-GAAP where noted) – sequential and YoY context

Versus S&P Global consensus (Q1 2025)

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment performance (Q1 YoY)

KPIs and balance sheet highlights

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “We delivered strong performance in the first quarter with EBITDA and EPS exceeding the top end of our guidance range. Organic revenue growth of 6% included 20% growth in AMS and DRS… these higher margin recurring revenue offerings now represent over 25% of revenue” – CEO .
• “Adjusted EBITDA was $215 million with a margin of 17.2%. Earnings per share of $1.62 reflects the benefits of share repurchases as well as the planned increase in a year-over-year tax rate” – CEO .
• “Currency headwinds amounted to $66 million or 5%… primarily from the Mexican peso, Argentine peso and the Brazilian real” – CFO .
• “We repurchased 1.3 million shares year-to-date… and increased our quarterly dividend for the third consecutive year” – CEO/CFO .
• “We expect Q2 revenue between $1.25–$1.30 billion, adjusted EBITDA $205–$225 million and EPS $1.25–$1.65” – CFO .

Q&A Highlights

• Tariff exposure: Management expects minimal direct tariff impact given locally sourced costs, service-based model, and pricing discipline; Global Services metals shipments proved transitory and tariffs were exempted for those commodities .
• Latin America FX and pricing: Organic +7% offset by −16% FX in Q1; pricing continues in Argentina; FX headwinds from Mexico/Brazil expected to moderate in H2 .
• Margin bridge and H2 setup: Q2 margin pressure from FX, lower Argentina interest income (~$4–5M per quarter headwind), and restructuring timing; H2 benefits from FX moderation, seasonality, and lapping 3Q24 security loss .
• AMS/DRS cadence: DRS steady; AMS lumpy with large contracts; Sainsbury’s deployment on track; new AMS awards in Southeast Asia support H2 and early 2026 .
• Global Services trend: April volumes moderated from Q1 spike; guidance embeds mid-single-digit organic growth trajectory .

Estimates Context

• Revenue and EPS beat S&P Global consensus: $1.247B vs $1.213B* and $1.62 vs $1.17*, respectively . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
• SPGI EBITDA actual of $192.1M vs consensus $198.8M* implies a miss on that basis, while company-reported adjusted EBITDA was $215M (margin 17.2%) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
• Estimate count was limited (n=3 for both revenue and EPS), which can increase variability in consensus accuracy [GetEstimates].

Where estimates may adjust:

• Upward revisions likely for near-term revenue and EPS given the Q1 beat and Q2 guide; models should also reflect lower Argentina interest income and FX mix headwinds called out for H1 . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Mix shift to AMS/DRS (>25% TTM revenue) remains the core margin/FCF expansion driver; momentum continued in Q1 with >20% organic growth and record NA profitability .
• FX/Argentina dynamics weigh on H1 margins, but management expects moderation in H2, plus easier comps from last year’s 3Q security loss event .
• Global Services metals shipments provided a Q1 boost but are normalizing; the model’s resilience relies more on AMS/DRS and productivity than on BGS volatility .
• Capital deployment is a catalyst: accelerated buybacks (>1.3M shares YTD), dividend increase, and ~$180M remaining authorization support per-share metrics .
• 2025 framework intact: mid-single-digit organic growth, +30–50 bps margin expansion, 40–45% FCF conversion; Q2 guide consistent with this trajectory .
• For positioning: favor on sustained execution of AMS/DRS installations (Sainsbury’s and APAC wins), while monitoring FX path and Argentina interest income headwinds in H1 .
• Watch segment mix: Latin America YoY declines are largely FX-related; organic growth/pipeline remain solid across regions .

Notes: Company figures are per press releases/8-Ks and the Q1’25 call. Estimate figures are from S&P Global and marked with an asterisk. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*