BRINKS CO (BCO)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q2 delivered a clean beat: revenue $1.301B (up 4% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS $1.79 both exceeded the top end of company guidance; record Q2 non-GAAP operating margin of 12.6% on mix shift toward AMS/DRS and strong productivity, with $102M of Q2 free cash flow generated . Versus S&P Global consensus, revenue and EPS were ahead (see Estimates Context).
• Management raised full‑year expectations for revenue and EBITDA (≈+$75M and ≈+$20M vs post‑Q1 view) on stronger 1H execution, better visibility into accelerating AMS/DRS in 2H, and favorable 1H FX trends .
• Mix and productivity were the primary margin drivers (record segment margins in North America and Europe); price covered cost inflation; LatAm translation (MXN/ARS) was a reported headwind to revenue and EBITDA despite slight FX tailwinds in Europe .
• Capital returns remained active: $85M repurchased in Q2 (≈$130M YTD), diluted share count down 6% YoY; TTM FCF conversion 48% and leverage at 2.8x, expected to be below the top end of 2–3x by year-end .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Exceeded the top end of revenue, EBITDA and EPS guidance; CEO: “delivery of another quarter of meaningful progress… exceeded the top end of our quarterly guidance for revenue, EBITDA and EPS” .
  • Record Q2 operating margin (12.6%) driven by mix (AMS/DRS) and productivity; CEO: “Record second quarter operating profit margins… driven by strong productivity… and increasing AMS/DRS revenue mix” .
  • Cash and returns: “delivered $102 million of free cash flow… and… repurchasing $85 million… this quarter”; CFO reaffirmed >50% of FCF to shareholders framework .

• What Went Wrong

  • Latin America reported revenue and profit declined YoY on currency devaluation (organic still positive): revenue −4% reported (+7% organic), operating profit −13% reported (−4% organic) .
  • Higher interest and taxes offset operating profit growth in EPS bridge: interest expense stepped up to ~$61M run-rate and effective tax rate rose to ~28% from ~23% YoY .
  • EBITDA margin modestly below prior-year Q2 on company’s slide math (17.8% vs 18.0%) despite record operating margin, reflecting geographic/FX mix and normalizing high‑margin LatAm FX benefit .

Financial Results

Quarterly trend

Q2 2025 vs consensus (S&P Global)

Segment performance (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024)

KPIs (Q2 2025)

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “We… exceeded the top end of our quarterly guidance for revenue, EBITDA and EPS… supported by strong operational momentum… visibility into accelerating AMS / DRS organic revenue growth, and favorable first‑half currency trends.” – Mark Eubanks, CEO .
• “Record second quarter operating margins were primarily driven by strong productivity… and increasing AMS / DRS revenue mix across all segments.” – Mark Eubanks, CEO .
• “Earnings per share of $1.79… with total diluted share count down 6%. In Q2, we delivered $102 million of free cash flow.” – Mark Eubanks, CEO .
• “Revenue increases by about $75 million and EBITDA by about $20 million from our expectations after the first quarter… we generate ~55% of full‑year EBITDA in the second half.” – Kurt McMaken, CFO .
• “We covered our cost inflation with price in all of our businesses.” – Kurt McMaken, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

• Margin beat drivers: Management attributed upside to stronger organic performance (adjusted for fewer workdays and lapping a one‑time equipment sale), favorable AMS/DRS mix, and broad‑based productivity; FX was a net EBITDA headwind vs the last guide despite modest revenue tailwinds .
• AMS/DRS acceleration: Expect 2H acceleration toward the high end of the framework; lumpiness from large customer rollouts acknowledged, but backlog and install momentum support outlook .
• Global Services (BGS): Moderated to mid‑single‑digit growth after a strong Q1; tariff developments can rapidly change volumes; infrastructure in place to capture dislocations .
• Converting customers to AMS/DRS: Emphasis on value‑add and solution selling; DRS traction strong in small formats and in North America enterprise accounts; cycle time from quote to revenue improving .
• Regional outlook: North America expected to continue on a slight upward trajectory in 2H; LatAm reports pressured by FX even as organic growth remains solid .

Estimates Context

• Q2 2025 beats vs S&P Global consensus: revenue $1,301M vs $1,274.14M* and EPS $1.79 vs $1.4467*; company also beat its own Q2 guidance ranges for revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and EPS .
• Consensus FY 2025 EPS sits at $7.9567*, and the company raised its revenue and EBITDA outlook vs post‑Q1 expectations, implying potential upward estimate revisions as 2H execution unfolds .
• Note: Consensus EBITDA for Q2 was $215.85M*; Brink’s reported adjusted EBITDA of $232.0M (non‑GAAP), a favorable comparison on a like‑for‑like adjusted basis .
  Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Mix shift toward higher‑margin AMS/DRS plus tangible productivity gains are delivering record operating margins and consistent beats; this narrative is intact into 2H .
• Raised FY revenue/EBITDA outlook and new Q3 guide (revenue $1.305–$1.355B; adj. EBITDA $240–$260M; EPS $1.85–$2.25) create a near‑term catalyst path and set a higher execution bar .
• Latin America FX translation remains the key swing factor on reported EBITDA despite solid organic performance; Europe/NA strength is offsetting .
• Strong cash generation (Q2 FCF $102M) and active buybacks (−6% diluted share count YoY) support EPS resilience even with higher interest/taxes .
• Leverage at 2.8x with a glidepath below the top end of the 2–3x range by YE affords continued capital return and selective M&A (e.g., KAL) to deepen AMS capabilities .
• For positioning: favor the 2H acceleration setup in AMS/DRS and margin expansion; watch FX (MXN/ARS) and interest expense as potential dampers to EPS translation .

Appendix: Prior quarter context and guidance

• Q1 2025: revenue $1,247M, non‑GAAP EPS $1.62, adj. EBITDA $215M; Q2 guide at the time was revenue $1,250–$1,300M, adj. EBITDA $205–$225M, EPS $1.25–$1.65—ultimately all exceeded in Q2 .
• Q4 2024: revenue $1,264M, non‑GAAP EPS $2.12, adj. EBITDA $251.0M; 2025 framework established (mid‑single‑digit organic; AMS/DRS mid‑high teens; +30–50 bps adj. EBITDA margin expansion; 40–45% FCF conversion) .