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    Brinks Co (BCO)

    Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Feb 19, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$103.95Last close (Nov 5, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$98.35Open (Nov 6, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-5.60(-5.39%)
    • AMS and DRS delivered 26% organic growth in the quarter, exceeding expectations, and management is optimistic about continued strong growth, potentially above the previous long-term expectations of 15%-18%.
    • Management remains confident in eventually achieving their long-term free cash flow conversion target of near 50%, indicating a focus on improving cash generation and shareholder returns.
    • The appointment of new leadership in the Global Services business is expected to drive performance improvements beyond external market conditions, by exploring new growth opportunities, improving operational efficiency, and strengthening compliance culture.
    • The company experienced a $10 million security loss in Q3 due to a theft in Latin America, impacting earnings and raising concerns about risk management practices.
    • The Global Services business faced declines in North America, making it a headwind in the quarter. With high fixed costs in this segment, continued declines could pressure margins.
    • Management indicated that achieving the 50% free cash flow conversion target by 2025 may take longer than expected, as they are not committing to a specific timeline.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    +2.6% (from $1,227.4M to $1,258.5M)

    Modest revenue growth was achieved despite mixed segment performance. While the strong performance of the DRS and AMS segment helped, weakness in the Cash and Valuables Management segment kept the overall revenue increase limited.

    DRS and AMS Segment

    +21% (from $256.5M to $310.3M)

    Strong growth in DRS and AMS drove the segment upward, reflecting robust customer demand and successful execution of technology-enabled service contracts. This segment’s impressive performance contrasts with the previous period’s lower figures, highlighting enhanced market positioning.

    Cash and Valuables Management

    -2.3% (from $970.9M to $948.2M)

    The decline in the Cash and Valuables Management segment suggests a market shift as customers move toward higher-margin solutions. The performance was slightly weaker compared to the previous period, likely due to lower volumes and increased conversion to digital services.

    Europe

    +9.6% (from $287.8M to $315.5M)

    European operations delivered robust performance, benefiting from pricing enhancements and new deployments. This growth contrasts with subdued performance in other regions and underscores the region’s strong market fundamentals compared to the previous period.

    Latin America

    -5.5% (from $339.6M to $321.0M)

    The decline in Latin America reflects ongoing challenges such as unfavorable foreign exchange headwinds and possible market saturation. Despite previous strong performance driven by inflation-based pricing, the region saw reduced revenues this period.

    Operating Income

    -14% (from $137.7M to $111.6M)

    Operating income fell significantly, partly due to lower margins resulting from cost pressures and a mix shift across segments. Even with strong organic growth in high-margin segments, factors such as increased operating costs and unfavorable currency effects contributed to the decline.

    Net Income

    -35% (from $49.4M to $31.9M)

    Net income was squeezed sharply by a combination of declining operating income and rising expenses. Increased interest expense and margin compression, compared to the prior period, had a pronounced negative impact on bottom-line profitability.

    Basic EPS

    -33% (from $0.98 to $0.66)

    The decline in Basic EPS reflects the lower net income in conjunction with a higher weighted-average share count effect. Despite strong segment performance in DRS and AMS, the overall profitability was impacted by higher costs and a softer result in legacy segments.

    Interest Expense

    +17% (from $53.8M to $63.0M)

    Interest expense increased notably due to a combination of higher interest rates and increased borrowing to support corporate growth initiatives, particularly in the DRS business. This escalation compared to the previous period added further pressure on net earnings.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Revenue growth

    FY 2024

    mid‑single digits

    3% total revenue growth

    lowered

    Adjusted EBITDA

    FY 2024

    $935 million–$985 million

    $900 million–$920 million

    lowered

    Free Cash Flow

    FY 2024

    $415 million–$465 million

    $320 million–$360 million

    lowered

    Tax Rate

    FY 2024

    approximately 28%

    in line or slightly better than 28%

    no change

    Organic Growth

    FY 2024

    Full‑Year Organic Growth in the low‑ to mid‑teens

    Total organic growth “into the double digits”

    no change

    Interest Expense

    FY 2024

    no prior guidance

    $235 million–$240 million

    no prior guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    AMS and DRS Growth

    Q4 2023, Q1 and Q2 2024 calls consistently highlighted double‐digit organic growth (e.g. 21%–26%), increased revenue share and a strong global pipeline.

    Q3 2024 reaffirmed robust performance with 26% organic growth, a higher organic growth outlook, an expanded backlog and significant new customer opportunities.

    Consistently strong and bullish momentum continues.

    Operational Efficiency Initiatives

    Earlier periods (Q4, Q1, Q2) emphasized lean productivity measures, improved DSOs, and global improvements via the Brink's Business System and targeted technology investments.

    Q3 2024 stressed new technology investments like a North American routing system and a centralized control tower, although delays in realizing productivity were noted.

    Steady focus maintained; slight delays noted but overall positive execution.

    Margin Expansion and Pricing Power

    Q4 2023, Q1 and Q2 2024 consistently discussed margin improvements via disciplined pricing and cost productivity. Clear progress in EBITDA margin expansion and higher-margin revenue mix was highlighted.

    In Q3 2024, while similar initiatives remain in place, there is growing commentary on sustainability concerns (e.g. the expectation of pricing normalization as inflation subsides) alongside margin gains.

    Continued emphasis but with emerging caution about the sustainability of pricing power.

    Free Cash Flow Conversion Targets

    Across Q4, Q1 and Q2 2024, the company communicated conversion targets around 46% with confidence in hitting free cash flow targets; structural drivers such as EBITDA growth and CapEx management were frequently noted.

    Q3 2024 mentioned the long-term goal of near 50% conversion, coupled with an acknowledgment that no specific timetable is set, reflecting uncertainties around timing.

    Steady focus with minor added uncertainty regarding the timing of achieving targets.

    Currency Headwinds and Geopolitical Risks

    Q4 2023, Q1 and Q2 2024 provided detailed discussion on FX impacts and regional geopolitical risks affecting markets in Latin America, Argentina and Brazil, with substantial impacts noted on revenue and margins.

    Q3 2024 again stressed the challenges, notably with severe FX headwinds from the Mexican peso devaluation (resulting in a $100 million guidance impact) and ongoing geopolitical risks affecting high‐margin markets.

    A persistent and significant challenge that continues to impact financial guidance.

    Sales Cycle and Deal Conversion

    Q1 and Q4 2023 explicitly discussed the longer cycle for AMS deals (ranging from one to two years) and noted restructuring of the sales teams to improve deal conversion.

    Q3 2024 did not provide specific commentary on sales cycle challenges or conversion metrics for AMS, suggesting reduced emphasis on this topic in the current period.

    Previously noted challenges are not emphasized in Q3, indicating a potential shift in focus or execution improvement.

    Restructuring Activities

    Q1 2024 and Q2 2024 detailed restructuring initiatives in Latin America and Europe aimed at right-sizing operations, which impacted margins but were viewed as strategic investments; Q4 2023 also touched on regional impacts.

    Q3 2024 contains no significant mention of restructuring activities, indicating a departure from earlier detailed discussions in this area.

    Topic appears to have receded in focus in Q3 relative to prior periods.

    Recurring Challenges and Leadership in Global Services

    Not mentioned in Q4 2023, Q1 or Q2 2024 earnings calls.

    Q3 2024 introduced recurring challenges in the Global Services business—citing currency fluctuations and market softness—and marked the appointment of new leadership (Nader Antar) to address these issues.

    New topic emerging in Q3 with potential to significantly impact the future outlook of the division.

    Risk Management Issues in Latin America

    Not previously mentioned in earlier earnings calls.

    Q3 2024 noted a new risk management issue following a $10 million loss from a security incident in Latin America, underlining an area for enhanced focus and mitigation.

    Emerging risk that could prompt greater scrutiny and operational adjustments going forward.

    Shareholder Returns

    Q4, Q1 and Q2 2024 frequently highlighted robust shareholder returns via share repurchases and dividend increases, with sizable capital allocated to returns.

    Q3 2024 maintained the commitment with noted share repurchases and dividends, and no indications of reduced emphasis were observed.

    Consistent and strong focus remains on delivering shareholder returns.

    1. Foreign Currency Impact
      Q: Are FX moves additional headwinds to Q4 guidance?
      A: Management acknowledged that recent FX volatility, including a strong U.S. dollar, could pose an incremental headwind to their Q4 revenue guidance if current rates hold. They estimate a total FX impact of $100 million to guidance, split evenly between Q3 and Q4, primarily due to the Mexican peso's fluctuation.

    2. AMS and DRS Growth Prospects
      Q: Can AMS/DRS sustain over 20% growth rates?
      A: Management is optimistic about sustaining over 20% organic growth in AMS and DRS, exceeding their initial mid- to high-teens expectations. Strong performance in Q2 and Q3, driven by new customer wins and accelerated time to revenue, suggests continued momentum into next year.

    3. Global Services Business Outlook
      Q: How will new leadership improve Global Services?
      A: A new leader, Nader, has joined to revitalize the Global Services segment, aiming to enhance operational performance and capitalize on opportunities despite external market conditions. He will focus on talent acquisition, compliance culture, and operational efficiency.

    4. Security Losses in Q3
      Q: Details on the $10 million security losses in Q3?
      A: The company experienced a $10 million theft in Latin America, currently under investigation. While specifics are limited, management considers it a timing issue between Q3 and Q4 and part of risk management in their business.

    5. Free Cash Conversion Target
      Q: Is 50% free cash conversion achievable by 2025?
      A: Management believes reaching the near 50% long-term free cash conversion target remains intact but refrained from providing a specific timeline, stating they will continue progressing towards that goal.

    6. Organic Growth Guidance Adjustment
      Q: Impact of softer Global Services vs. AMS/DRS on organic growth?
      A: Despite softness in Global Services, especially in North America with declines in the quarter, organic growth is expected to be low-single-digits for the year. However, increased assumptions in AMS and DRS are offsetting this softness, leading to an overall low-teens organic growth guidance.