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BC

BRINKS CO (BCO)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered revenue of $1.335B (+6% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $2.08; performance was above the midpoint of prior guidance, with record Q3 operating profit and EBITDA margins . Versus consensus, revenue modestly beat and EPS matched the Street (see Estimates Context).
  • AMS/DRS organic growth accelerated to 19%, now 27% of TTM revenue mix; mix and productivity drove margin expansion, while free cash flow improved 30% YoY to ~$175M .
  • Leverage fell to 2.9x, share count reduced 5% YTD through repurchases (~1.7M shares at ~$89), and Q4 non-GAAP guidance was set at revenue $1.33–$1.38B, adjusted EBITDA $267–$287M, EPS $2.28–$2.68 .
  • Near-term stock catalysts: continued AMS/DRS onboarding and channel expansion, North America margin trajectory toward a 20% EBITDA target, and disciplined capital returns (buybacks/dividend) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well
    • AMS/DRS growth accelerated to 19% QoQ, contributing to margin expansion; “Third quarter EBITDA margins were 19%, up 180 bps from the prior year” (CEO) .
    • Free cash flow strength: ~$175M in Q3, +30% YoY; DSOs improved by five days and capital intensity decreased (CFO/CEO) .
    • North America margin progress with mix shift and productivity; management targets at least 20% EBITDA margin midterm (CEO) .
  • What Went Wrong
    • Latin America operating profit declined YoY (-6%), with currency pressures (including Argentina highly inflationary effects) impacting results .
    • GAAP EPS ($0.86) remains materially below non-GAAP EPS ($2.08) due to adjusting items (Argentina, acquisition amortization, transformation, DOJ/FinCEN), highlighting ongoing non-GAAP reliance .
    • Ongoing legal and regulatory matters (e.g., Chile antitrust) and currency volatility continue to add uncertainty to GAAP comparability and guidance reconciliation .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$1.259 $1.301 $1.335
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$216.8 $232.0 $253.3
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %17.2% 17.8% 19.0%
Operating Profit - GAAP ($USD Millions)$111.6 $133.9 $152.4
Operating Profit - Non-GAAP ($USD Millions)$151.6 $164.5 $188.2
Operating Margin - Non-GAAP %12.0% 12.6% 14.1%
EPS - GAAP ($USD)$0.65 $1.03 $0.86
EPS - Non-GAAP ($USD)$1.62 $1.79 $2.08

Segment breakdown (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024):

SegmentRevenue Q3 2024 ($MM)Revenue Q3 2025 ($MM)YoY %Operating Profit Q3 2024 ($MM)Operating Profit Q3 2025 ($MM)YoY %
North America$413 $435 +5% $42 $57 +37%
Latin America$321 $327 +2% $70 $66 -6%
Europe$316 $353 +12% $40 $46 +15%
Rest of World$209 $220 +5% $44 $48 +9%

Selected KPIs:

KPIQ3 2025Prior Quarter/Year Reference
AMS/DRS Organic Growth %19% 16% in Q2 2025
AMS/DRS Mix of TTM Revenue27% ~25% TTM in Q1 2025
Free Cash Flow ($MM)~$175 +30% YoY
DSO Improvement5 days YoY 6 days improvement in Q2 YoY
Net Debt Leverage2.9x ~2.8x in Q2 TTM
Share Repurchases YTD~1.7M shares at ~$89.05; ~5% reduction $130–$154M utilized YTD by Q2/Q3

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($B)Q3 2025$1.305–$1.355 (Aug-6) Actual: $1.335 Delivered above midpoint
Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)Q3 2025$240–$260 (Aug-6) Actual: $253.3 Delivered above midpoint
Non-GAAP EPS ($)Q3 2025$1.85–$2.25 (Aug-6) Actual: $2.08 Delivered near high end
Revenue ($B)Q4 2025N/A$1.330–$1.380 New quarter guidance
Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)Q4 2025N/A$267–$287 New quarter guidance
Non-GAAP EPS ($)Q4 2025N/A$2.28–$2.68 New quarter guidance
Full-year Revenue ($B)FY 2025Framework (mid-single-digit organic growth) $5.212–$5.262; total growth ~5–9% Increased amounts vs original framework
Full-year Adj EBITDA ($MM)FY 2025Framework (+30–50 bps margin) $967–$987; margin ~18.6% Increased amounts
Full-year EPS ($)FY 2025Framework (no numeric range) $7.78–$8.18 Increased amounts
AMS/DRS Organic GrowthFY 2025Mid-to-high teens Tracking to high-end Maintained/at high end
Free Cash Flow ConversionFY 202540–45% 40–45% (affirmed) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ-2 (Aug-6)Q-1 (May-12)Current (Q3)Trend
AMS/DRS growth & mix16% AMS/DRS organic; mix rising; onboarding Sainsbury’s; KAL ATM software investment >20% AMS/DRS organic; mix >25% TTM; new major FI customer 19% AMS/DRS organic; 28% quarterly mix; 27% TTM; new onboarding in LATAM/Middle East Accelerating
Margin expansion (NA/EU)Record Q2 margins; disciplined pricing and productivity NA productivity; margin up 40 bps; resilience to tariffs/inflation Record Q3 margins; NA margin target ≥20% EBITDA midterm Improving
Cash conversion / working capitalFCF +$102M in Q2; DSO +6 days YoY TTM FCF ~$360M; affirmed 40–45% conversion ~$175M Q3 FCF; DSO +5 days YoY; 50% TTM conversion Stronger
FX/currency (Argentina)Slight FX tailwind in H2; Argentina highly inflationary adjustments detailed Currency headwind first half; Argentina adjustments FX tailwind ~1–2 pts in Q4; Argentina adjustments persist Mixed/managed
Regulatory/legalDOJ/FinCEN resolved; ongoing Chile antitrust noted DOJ/FinCEN accrual; Chile antitrust Chile antitrust noted; GAAP reconciliation constraints Ongoing
Bank consolidationN/AN/AViewed as AMS opportunity; potential CVM branch rationalization offsets Opportunity

Management Commentary

  • “Third quarter EBITDA margins were 19%, up 180 bps from the prior year… With AMS/DRS now accounting for 28% of total revenue in the quarter… we are expecting continued margin progress going forward.” — Mark Eubanks, CEO .
  • “In Q3, we delivered $175 million of free cash flow… DSOs improved by five days.” — Mark Eubanks, CEO .
  • “We are targeting to be at least 20% EBITDA margin in [North America] over the midterm.” — Mark Eubanks, CEO .
  • “Adjusted EBITDA… was $253 million and margin of 19%… above the midpoint of our guidance.” — Kurt McMaken, CFO .
  • “We… remain on track to allocate at least 50% of our total free cash flow towards shareholder returns in the full year.” — Mark Eubanks, CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • AMS/DRS outlook: Pipeline and conversions accelerating; one-third of DRS signings from existing CIT customers; balanced growth across regions (CEO) .
  • Incentives/channels: Expanded incentive comp tying >1,000 managers and salesforce to AMS/DRS growth; evolving partnerships and white-label bank channels to drive adoption (CEO) .
  • North America margins: Sustained progression driven by AMS/DRS mix, disciplined pricing, operational excellence; midterm ≥20% EBITDA margin target (CEO) .
  • Free cash flow conversion/DSO: 40–45% framework affirmed; DSO improvements from mix and focus; DPO and capex efficiency also contributing (CFO) .
  • Bank consolidation: Net positive for AMS given synergy potential; short-term CVM footprint rationalizations possible; strategic alignment with consolidators underway (CEO) .

Estimates Context

MetricQ1 2025 ConsensusActualQ2 2025 ConsensusActualQ3 2025 ConsensusActual
EPS ($)1.17*1.62 1.45*1.79 2.08*2.08
Revenue ($B)1.213*1.247 1.274*1.301 1.332*1.335

Values with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Implications:

  • Q3 EPS matched consensus while revenue modestly beat; prior quarters showed consistent beats on both EPS and revenue, suggesting estimates may need to reflect sustained margin progress from AMS/DRS mix and productivity. Adjusted EBITDA performance likewise tracked toward the upper half of guidance ranges .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • AMS/DRS is driving mix-led margin expansion and recurring revenue durability; continued onboarding and channel partnerships are catalysts for sustained mid- to high-teens organic growth .
  • North America margin trajectory remains favorable, with management targeting ≥20% EBITDA midterm; watch incremental margins and mix shift pacing .
  • Strong Q3 free cash flow and working-capital execution underpin 40–45% conversion framework; TTM conversion at ~50% suggests near-term cash return capacity .
  • Capital allocation remains shareholder-friendly (5% share count reduction YTD, leverage 2.9x within 2–3x target), supporting EPS accretion and multiple support .
  • Currency and Argentina accounting adjustments continue to affect GAAP comparability; focus on non-GAAP trends and constant currency disclosures for operational performance .
  • Q4 guidance implies sustained mid-single-digit organic growth and ~20% adjusted EBITDA margin; potential upside if AMS/DRS momentum persists and FX remains supportive .
  • Medium-term thesis: execution of Brink’s Business System, AMS/DRS penetration (2–3x TAM expansion), and back-office SG&A efficiencies can compound margins and cash generation .

Appendix: Source Documents

  • Q3 2025 8-K earnings release and slides .
  • Q3 2025 earnings call transcript .
  • Q2 2025 8-K earnings release and slides .
  • Q1 2025 8-K earnings release and slides .