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    Brinks Co (BCO)

    Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Mar 6, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$94.45Last close (Feb 25, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$93.92Open (Feb 26, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-0.53(-0.56%)
    • Brink's global services business is rebounding with organic growth accelerating out of Q4 into Q1 and expected to continue through 2025, particularly benefiting from increased volatility in precious metals markets. As the largest logistics player in this space, Brink's is well positioned to capitalize on increased movement of gold and silver, leading to incremental profit conversion. ,
    • The company is achieving significant productivity improvements and margin expansion in North America, with labor as a percentage of revenue improving by 310 basis points. Investments in route optimization technology, expected to be fully implemented by mid-year and benefits realized in the second half, aim towards a near-term target of 20% EBITDA margins.
    • Brink's AMS and DRS businesses continue to show strong growth, with significant new business wins such as BP convenience stores and Western Union, contributing to a strong backlog entering 2025. The company expects mid-to-high teens organic growth in AMS and DRS, driven largely by new business wins rather than conversions, indicating successful market share expansion. ,
    • Foreign exchange headwinds in high-margin geographies: The company anticipates a 5% FX headwind over the full year of 2025, particularly impacting high-margin regions like Latin America. This could negatively affect margins and free cash flow conversion, potentially hampering the ability to deploy cash towards share repurchases.
    • Slowing growth in key AMS and DRS segments: After achieving 23% organic growth in AMS and DRS in 2024, the company expects growth to slow to mid- to high teens in 2025. This deceleration is due to the law of large numbers and moderating inflation in Argentina, which had previously boosted growth. Slower growth in these key segments may impact overall revenue expansion.
    • Low growth expectations in core CVM and BGS businesses: The company's core Cash and Valuables Management (CVM) and Brink's Global Services (BGS) businesses are projected to grow at only low single-digit rates. Given that these segments make up a significant portion of total revenue, such modest growth may not suffice to drive substantial overall growth.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    ~1.5% increase (from $1,245.6M to $1,264.2M)

    Total revenue grew modestly as the strong performance of DRS and AMS (which grew 18.8% YoY) helped offset regional underperformance, particularly in Latin America. This reflects a continuation of prior trends where high-margin services boosted overall revenue despite currency headwinds and mixed regional performance.

    DRS and AMS

    18.8% increase (from $266.3M to $316.3M)

    The robust growth in DRS and AMS illustrates ongoing momentum driven by increased customer demand and continued market penetration, consistent with previous quarters where these segments achieved double-digit organic growth. This strong performance is a key driver behind overall revenue expansion.

    Latin America

    ~5.7% decline (from $343.3M to $323.6M)

    Revenue in Latin America declined due to significant currency headwinds—primarily related to the Argentine and Mexican pesos—exacerbating challenges despite underlying organic gains from inflation-based price increases and AMS/DRS expansion seen in earlier periods.

    Europe

    ~5.6% increase (from $294.4M to $310.8M)

    European revenue increased owing to favorable contributions from organic growth, acquisitions, and price increases that build on prior Q3 trends in the region. Enhanced performance in tech-enabled solutions and operational efficiencies further supported the upward trend observed in previous periods.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Organic Growth

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Total organic growth in the mid-single digits; AMS and DRS organic growth in the mid- to high teens

    no prior guidance

    Adjusted EBITDA Margin Expansion

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Expected margin expansion of 30 to 50 basis points

    no prior guidance

    Free Cash Flow Conversion

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Targeting 40% to 45% of EBITDA converted into free cash flow

    no prior guidance

    Shareholder Returns

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    At least 50% of free cash flow allocated to shareholder returns, including share repurchases at a similar level to 2024

    no prior guidance

    FX Impact

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    FX rates are expected to create a less than 5% headwind for the full year

    no prior guidance

    Tax Rate

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Expected to normalize at 28%, up from 23% in 2024

    no prior guidance

    CapEx

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    CapEx as a percentage of revenue is expected to remain below 3.5%

    no prior guidance

    Revenue

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    Expected to be $1.225 billion at the midpoint, reflecting mid-single-digit organic growth and a 6% currency headwind

    no prior guidance

    Adjusted EBITDA

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    Expected to be between $190 million and $210 million

    no prior guidance

    EPS

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    Expected to be between $1.10 and $1.40

    no prior guidance

    Segment Margins

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    Year-over-year margin expansion expected in all segments except Latin America, where restructuring actions are planned to improve margins

    no prior guidance

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Revenue
    FY 2024
    Over $5 billion
    5.012 billion (1,236.1+ 1,253.1+ 1,258.5+ 1,264.2)
    Met
    Interest Expense
    FY 2024
    $235 million – $240 million
    235.4 million (55.8+ 56.5+ 63+ 60.1)
    Met
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    AMS & DRS Growth Performance and Conversion Trends

    In Q1, AMS/DRS grew 18% organically with an emphasis on converting legacy accounts. In Q2, they delivered 26% organic growth driven by a mix of new business, competitive wins, and conversions. In Q3, the segments sustained 26% organic growth with robust backlogs and improved revenue execution.

    In Q4, AMS/DRS achieved 23% organic growth, highlighted significant wins (such as BP and Western Union deployments) and refined conversion focus—continuing a long streak of double-digit growth.

    Steady growth with evolving conversion strategies. The performance remains strong with consistent organic growth, though targets and conversion mixes adjust as new wins supplement legacy conversion efforts.

    Global Services Business Performance and Rebound Dynamics

    Q1 showed signs of stabilization and rebound (notably, a 4% growth in non–North America segments). Q2 noted cyclical softness driven by precious metals and currency flows despite maintaining healthy margins. Q3 experienced challenges from subdued precious metals volatility and market softness.

    Q4 marked a turnaround with Global Services emerging as a bright spot driven by increased precious metals market volatility and an improved revenue outlook into early 2025.

    From softness to rebound. The segment shifted from cyclical challenges to a positive rebound due to external market dynamics, indicating a potential long-term uplift.

    Margin Expansion and Operational Efficiency in North America

    Q1 reported record margin improvement (a 570 bp increase over two years to 16.9%) driven by pricing and cost productivity. Q2 showed a 360 bp improvement and investments in automation and facility improvements. Q3 featured 120 bp improvements tempered by short-term integration delays in new routing systems.

    In Q4, the company is targeting a near-term 20% EBITDA margin through further route optimization, technology investments, and notable direct labor cost reductions.

    Consistently positive and accelerating. Ongoing investments and operational initiatives continue to drive margin expansion with evolving technology and process improvements.

    Foreign Exchange Headwinds and Currency Volatility in Latin America

    Q1 experienced an 8% FX impact, partly offset by pricing strategies. Q2 faced significant FX headwinds—primarily from the Mexican peso and Brazilian real—with potential revenue impacts estimated at $50–75 million. Q3 saw an 11% headwind with a notable cash settlement and a revised $100 million annual impact.

    Q4 reported a $123 million FX headwind driven by multiple currencies (Argentine, Mexican, Brazilian) and a 10% impact in high‐margin geographies, with expectations of continued challenges into 2025.

    Increasing pressure and sustained volatility. FX headwinds have grown in magnitude over the periods, consistently challenging margins and revenue despite mitigation efforts.

    Leadership Changes and Organizational Restructuring Initiatives

    Q1 did not mention leadership changes. Q2 referenced restructuring activities in Latin America and Europe as part of operational right-sizing. Q3 introduced a new global leader for Global Services (Nader Antar) and initiated broader restructuring measures.

    Q4 expanded the leadership refresh with three newly appointed global executives to head key segments, reinforcing efforts in growth, continuous improvement, and compliance.

    Emerging and intensifying. Initially absent, leadership and restructuring discussions gained prominence to support strategic growth and operational improvements across regions.

    Technology Investments and Sales Cycle Optimization

    Q1 emphasized integrated investments in AMS/DRS and initiatives to shorten the sales cycle (e.g. reducing time from contract to revenue). Q2 mentioned technology investments in cash processing automation and IT system enhancements for route density. Q3 focused on deploying new routing systems, cloud migration, and a centralized control tower while also noting improvements in sales cycle timing.

    In Q4, the focus remains on further technology investments—such as route optimization technology, cloud migration to address legacy tech debt—and continued efforts to optimize the sales cycle in DRS through shortening time to revenue.

    Consistently evolving. Ongoing investments in digital and operational technology, along with enhancements in sales cycle efficiency, reflect a strategic priority to drive revenue and margin improvements.

    Risk Management and Security Concerns

    Q1 did not include risk management discussions. Q2 noted a previous increase in security losses (a $12 million impact) from a major event in BGS. Q3 detailed a $10 million security loss in Latin America due to theft—with insurance coverage mitigating further impacts.

    Q4 did not specifically mention risk management or security incidents.

    Intermittent focus. While a significant security event was detailed in Q3, the topic was not highlighted in Q4, suggesting it remains a sporadic, event-driven concern rather than a continuous focal point.

    Impact of Precious Metals Market Volatility on Global Services

    Q1 did not address precious metals volatility. Q2 described market softness associated with precious metals and currency flows as a drag on growth. Q3 reported that limited volatility in precious metals contributed to subdued demand for movement and storage.

    Q4 presented a reversal, noting that increased volatility in precious metals markets is now beneficial—boosting activity and profit conversion in Global Services due to their fixed-cost infrastructure and established relationships.

    Reversing sentiment. Initially a headwind, precious metals volatility has shifted to a positive catalyst, potentially having a major impact on future Global Services performance.

    Capital Allocation Strategies and Free Cash Flow Conversion Targets

    Q1 described a disciplined approach with share repurchases, dividend increases, and a 46% free cash flow conversion target. Q2 reinforced this focus with refinancing achievements and a strong repurchase capacity, targeting 42–50% free cash flow conversion. Q3 continued with consistent shareholder returns, maintaining leverage below 3x and setting long-term free cash flow goals near 50% conversion.

    Q4 reiterated a robust capital allocation framework—over 60% of 2024 cash was allocated to shareholder returns, with increased share repurchases and clear 2025 free cash flow conversion guidelines (40–45%), reinforcing a target of enhanced capital efficiency.

    Steady and disciplined. The company’s capital allocation and free cash flow initiatives have been consistently prioritized and refined, underpinning long-term shareholder value creation.

    Evolving Market Uncertainties in Early-Stage AMS/DRS Segmentation

    Q1 acknowledged that AMS/DRS markets are in the early stages, highlighting both significant growth potential and inherent uncertainties in market quantification. Q2 referenced the early innings of AMS/DRS growth without focusing deeply on uncertainties.

    In Q3 and Q4, there was no explicit discussion about evolving market uncertainties in early-stage AMS/DRS segmentation, with the focus shifting toward strong organic growth and operational execution.

    Reduced emphasis. Initial caution around early-stage market uncertainties has receded as strong organic growth and execution have taken center stage, suggesting increased confidence in the segments’ maturity and potential.

    1. Margin Improvement
      Q: Can you outline the opportunity to improve margins in North America?
      A: Management sees a 20% EBITDA margin as a near-term target. Investments are focused on route optimization technology to be fully implemented by midyear, with benefits expected in the second half. They have improved labor costs by 310 basis points, attributed to productivity gains in routing and money processing. They expect North America to close the margin gap with Latin America.

    2. 2025 Growth Guidance
      Q: What are your growth assumptions for 2025, especially for CIT and BGS?
      A: The company is guiding to mid-single-digit organic growth for 2025. AMS and DRS businesses are expected to grow mid- to high-teens organically. CIT (CVM) is anticipated to have low single-digit growth. BGS (Brink's Global Services) is expected to accelerate growth from Q4 into Q1 and through 2025, flipping from slightly negative last year to positive this year.

    3. AMS and DRS Growth Expectations
      Q: Why is AMS and DRS growth moving towards mid- to high teens from 23%?
      A: The growth rate is expected to moderate due to the law of large numbers as the business scales. Additionally, moderating inflation in Argentina creates a growth headwind for AMS and DRS in that region. However, management remains committed to mid- to high-teens growth and aims to outperform. Recent wins with BP convenience stores and Western Union add hundreds of locations and bolster the backlog into 2025.

    4. Free Cash Flow and FX Headwinds
      Q: How will FX headwinds affect free cash flow and share repurchases in 2025?
      A: Free cash flow conversion is expected to improve with margins. FX headwinds in high-margin geographies could be a headwind to conversion. Interest rate reductions and faster AMS and DRS deployment provide tailwinds. Capital efficiency gains include reducing about 300 vehicles and 35 branches, optimizing the network and supporting cash flow.

    5. Impact of Tariffs and Gold Prices
      Q: How do tariffs and rising gold prices impact your business?
      A: Tariffs have led to increased movement of gold and silver into the U.S., benefiting Brink's as the largest logistics player in precious metals. Volatility in global markets enhances their global services business. The fixed-cost logistics network allows for good incremental profit conversion during high activity periods. Tariffs have minimal impact on their non-global services business.

    6. AMS and DRS Growth Sources
      Q: How much AMS and DRS growth is from legacy conversions vs. new wins?
      A: Less than one-third of AMS and DRS growth comes from legacy conversions. The majority of growth is from new business, including unvended accounts and competitive takeovers. On the AMS side, retail ATM networks and bank outsourcing represent market expansion rather than conversions.

    7. Discontinuation of the Penny
      Q: Will discontinuing the penny impact your business?
      A: The discontinuation of the penny is not an issue for Brink's. The coin business is an immaterial part of their operations in this context. It may even be beneficial, as they are the largest physical currency mover in North America and partner with retailers and the Federal Reserve.