Sign in
BP

BIOCRYST PHARMACEUTICALS INC (BCRX)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 was an inflection quarter: total revenue grew 56.8% YoY to $145.5M, ORLADEYO net revenue rose 51.0% YoY to $134.2M, and GAAP operating income reached $21.2M, delivering a small positive net income of $0.00 EPS .
  • Management raised 2025 ORLADEYO revenue guidance to $580–$600M (from $535–$550M) and now expects full-year profitability and positive cash flow in 2025, a year earlier than prior expectations .
  • Execution on paid conversion drove the beat: paid rate jumped to ~84% vs. 73.5% at YE 2024, aided by Medicare Part D redesign (IRA) and commercial payer progress; U.S. accounted for 89.5% of ORLADEYO revenues .
  • Balance sheet actions: repaid $75M of Pharmakon debt in April, expected to save ~$23.5M in interest over the life of the loan, reinforcing a path to profitability and deleveraging .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well
    • “We started 2025 with another quarter of outstanding performance…moving ORLADEYO patients from free drug to paid at a much faster rate than we expected,” raising annual guidance and accelerating profitability .
    • Paid rate jumped to ~84% by end of April; “we achieved in four months what we had expected would take three years,” positioning revenue capture for 2025+ .
    • Q1 execution and gross-to-net discipline: kept gross-to-net near the low end of 15–20% range and expect ~15% for the full year, supporting margins .
  • What Went Wrong
    • SG&A increased 38.7% YoY to $82.5M on commercial investment and expanded operations; Opex guidance for 2025 was raised to $440–$450M (ex-SBC) .
    • Interest expense remained elevated at $23.5M (down modestly YoY), reflecting financing structure; debt paydown mitigates future interest but indicates ongoing capital costs .
    • Q2 seasonal revenue “jump” expected to be smaller ($10–$12M) due to pull-forward of paid conversions in Q1, potentially complicating near-term quarter-over-quarter optics despite strong underlying demand .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)$117.085 $131.534 $145.534
ORLADEYO Net Revenue ($USD Millions)$116.319 $124.186 $134.243
Other Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.766 $7.348 $11.291
GAAP Operating Income ($USD Millions)$7.692 $(4.508) $21.227
Non-GAAP Operating Income ($USD Millions)$24.941 $16.831 $42.595
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.07) $(0.13) $0.00

Segment/Geography

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025
ORLADEYO Net Revenue ($USD Millions)$124.186 $134.243
U.S. Share of ORLADEYO (%)86.1% (100% - 13.9% OUS) 89.5%

KPIs

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025
Paid Rate (% of ORLADEYO patients on paid drug)73.5% ~84%
Medicare Paid Rate—~89%
New Prescribers Added (Quarter)67 (Q3 2024) 59
HAE Patient Strong Preference for Oral Prophylaxis50% (2023 baseline) 70%
Patients on ORLADEYO (U.S., launch to YE 2024)~3,000 Target pool ~10,000
Gross-to-Net Range~15–20% typical; closer to low end in Q1 ~15% FY25 expectation

Versus Estimates (Q1 2025)

MetricActualConsensusResult
Revenue ($USD Millions)$145.534 $127.787*Beat
EPS ($USD)$0.00 $(0.052)*Beat
EBITDA ($USD Millions)—$7.0*Beat (vs actual EBITDA $21.558*)

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
ORLADEYO Net Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025$535–$550 $580–$600 Raised
Operating Expenses (ex-SBC) ($USD Millions)FY 2025$425–$435 $440–$450 Raised
Profitability (EPS & Cash Flow)FY 2025/2026Profitable with positive cash flow in 2026 Profitable with positive cash flow in 2025 Accelerated
Quarterly ORLADEYO Cadence2025Typical larger Q2 liftQ2 lift smaller, ~$10–$12M Pattern shift

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Paid Rate & Gross-to-NetReimbursed product rate ~74.8% (Q3); paid rate 73.5% YE 2024; strong demand Paid rate ~84%; Medicare paid ~89%; gross-to-net near low end; ~15% FY target Improving, structural tailwind from IRA
Profitability & LeverageGAAP operating profit in Q3; FY 2026 profitability target 2025 profitability and positive cash flow; $75M debt paydown; ~$23.5M interest savings Accelerating profitability, deleveraging
Pediatric ORLADEYOPlanned NDA and label expansion in 2025 NDA submitted; expectation to be market leader on convenience Regulatory progress; future tailwind
Pipeline: BCX17725 (Netherton)Entered clinic; initial 2025 data planned U.S. IND cleared; 4-week dosing; endpoints on itch and physician severity; initial patient data by YE Execution milestones approaching
Pipeline: Avoralstat (DME)Advancing toward patient trials in 2025 Authorization to enroll in Australia; watching retinal thickness reductions; durability expected First patient readouts targeted YE
Macro/Regulatory (IRA)Early favorable signs for Medicare affordability IRA drove ~2/3 of paid rate improvement Durable payer tailwinds

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “Our improved revenue growth significantly increases our margins and has also accelerated our cash flow and profitability goals by a year… we now expect to be profitable on a full-year basis this year” .
  • CCO: “We did it in 4 months… the IRA is achieving its intent of helping Medicare patients afford their prescription co-payments… approximately 84% of all established patients on ORLADEYO were receiving paid therapy” .
  • CFO/CEO: “Cash at the end of the quarter was $317 million… we made a paydown of $75 million on our debt with Pharmakon… save approximately $23 million in interest payments” .
  • R&D: “We’ve submitted our pediatric NDA for ORLADEYO… KLK5 is the key pharmacologic target [for Netherton]… we look forward to sharing our initial Phase I trial data… by year-end” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Pediatric opportunity: ~500 U.S. pediatric HAE patients with ~200 appropriate for prophylaxis; expect mix of switches from injectables and new starts; oral granules expected to be preferred .
  • Cadence and paid rate sustainability: Q1 paid rate improvement sets a new “floor”; Q2 increase expected to be $10–$12M as pull-forward effects normalize; underlying demand and retention remain strong .
  • Gross-to-net improvements: Driven by higher Medicare paid mix and disciplined co-pay assistance management; aim for ~15% for FY25 .
  • Netherton (BCX17725): Small cohorts, initial 4-week dosing with skin PK/pharmacology, clinical signals (itch, physician severity); plan to expand to 12-week dosing; initial patient data by YE .
  • DME (avoralstat): Seeking “clear and uncontroversial” reductions in retinal edema; preclinical durability supports potential for long exposure from single dose .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 results exceeded consensus: revenue $145.5M vs. $127.8M consensus and EPS $0.00 vs. $(0.052) consensus; EBITDA consensus $7.0M vs. stronger actual performance (Operating income $21.2M; S&P Global EBITDA actual $21.558M*) . Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Guidance raise (ORLADEYO $580–$600M) and Q2 cadence commentary likely require analysts to pull forward revenue into Q1 and temper Q2 seasonality assumptions while raising FY25 revenue/EPS trajectories .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The step-change in paid rate (~84%) and favorable gross-to-net dynamics underpin the beat and FY guidance raise; expect durable tailwinds from Medicare IRA and commercial conversion .
  • 2025 profitability and positive cash flow are now expected, aided by debt paydown ($75M) and interest savings (~$23.5M), improving equity value through deleveraging .
  • Near-term trading setup: Q2 QoQ revenue growth will be smaller ($10–$12M) due to Q1 pull-forward; focus on underlying demand KPIs (new prescriptions, prescriber additions, retention) to gauge trajectory .
  • Pediatric NDA for oral granules creates a prospective incremental growth vector not included in current peak sales targets, potentially accelerating adoption and broadening the patient base .
  • Pipeline catalysts into YE: initial patient data for BCX17725 (Netherton) and avoralstat (DME) could unlock optionality and multiple expansion if clinical signals are “uncontroversial” .
  • Geographic expansion continues to contribute (U.S. ~89.5% of ORLADEYO in Q1; OUS growth ongoing), supporting long-term $1B peak sales ambition .
  • Watch Opex discipline versus scaling revenue: SG&A elevated to support growth; management reaffirmed capital allocation focus and expects non-GAAP opex $440–$450M (ex-SBC) .

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.