Executive Summary

Q3 delivered a clean beat on revenue with $21.8M (+20% Y/Y) vs S&P Global consensus $21.0M*, driven by Lung Diagnostic Testing volume and pricing and 97% Y/Y growth in Development Services . Revenue consensus: $20.98M*; actual: $21.77M.
Gross margin expanded 400 bps Y/Y to 81% on mix, higher average revenue per test, and workflow efficiencies; management expects margins to stay near ~80% into year‑end .
FY25 revenue guidance raised to $84–$86M (from $80–$85M), citing momentum exiting Q3 and early Q4; management reiterated expectation for positive Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 .
Key near‑term catalysts: evidence of primary care channel traction (PCP orders +75% Y/Y; PCP share ~11% in September) and confirmation of Q4 Adjusted EBITDA positivity; longer‑term, pipeline and expanded Bio‑Rad partnership updates at Nov. 12 AMP R&D event .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Primary care expansion is working: “total tests ordered from primary care in the third quarter grew 75% over the third quarter of 2024” and PCP share rose from ~4% pre‑pilot to 11% in September . Management: “our strategic expansion into primary care is proving to be additive” .
Margin execution: Gross margin reached 81% (+400 bps Y/Y), supported by higher average revenue per test and workflow optimization; CFO sees margins “remain near 80% to finish out the year” .
Services momentum: Development Services revenue up 97% Y/Y to $1.9M; dollars under contract at $12.9M (+16% Y/Y), an all‑time high .

What Went Wrong

Operating expense intensity: Operating expenses (ex‑direct costs) rose 10% Y/Y to $24.7M due to sales & marketing for commercial expansion, despite sequential OpEx down 3–4% vs Q2 .
Cash use and working capital: Cash fell to $16.6M (from $20.7M in Q2), primarily from a $5.2M A/R build (timing and higher lung diagnostics revenue); partially offset by $4.8M ATM proceeds .
Sequential mix headwind in Services: Development Services revenue declined sequentially ($2.1M in Q2 → $1.9M in Q3) even as Y/Y growth was strong; management emphasized growing backlog and new agreements .

Financial Results

Note on EPS comparability: Biodesix effected a 1‑for‑20 reverse stock split effective Sept. 15, 2025. Historical per‑share metrics may not be directly comparable without split adjustments .

Headline P&L and Margins

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q3 2025 Consensus*
Total Revenue ($M)	$18.151	$20.018	$21.768	$20.980*
Net Loss ($M)	$(10.258)	$(11.468)	$(8.716)	—
Net Loss per Share ($, as reported)	$(1.40)	$(0.08)	$(1.16)	$(1.506)*
Gross Margin (%)	77%	80%	81%	—
R&D Expense ($M)	$2.547	$3.269	$2.992	—
SG&A ($M)	$20.016	$22.411	$21.714	—
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$(5.584)	$(7.213)	$(4.591)	—

*Estimates marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Revenue

Segment Revenue ($M)	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Lung Diagnostic Testing	$17.168	$17.898	$19.835
Development Services	$0.983	$2.120	$1.933
Total	$18.151	$20.018	$21.768

Operating KPIs

KPI	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Lung Diagnostic Tests Delivered (units)	~13,900	—	~15,700
Avg Sales Reps in Field (count)	—	74	85
Development Services $ Under Contract ($M)	—	$12.5	$12.9
PCP Share of Nodify Tests (Sept)	~4% pre‑pilot	—	11% (Sept)

Actual vs. Consensus (Q3 2025)

Metric	Consensus*	Actual	Surprise	Surprise (%)
Revenue ($M)	$20.980*	$21.768	+$0.788	+3.8%
Primary EPS ($)	$(1.506)*	$(1.16)	+$0.35	n/a

*Estimates marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Total Revenue ($M)	FY 2025	$80–$85M (Q1/Q2 reiterated)	$84–$86M	Raised (higher midpoint and narrowed up)
Adjusted EBITDA	Q4 2025	Positive in Q4 (prior expectation)	Positive in Q4 (reaffirmed)	Maintained
Gross Margin	2H/FY 2025	—	Near ~80% through year‑end	New qualitative color
Sales Force Size	Q4 2025	—	93–97 reps targeted	New operational target

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Primary care channel	Reconfigured sales structure; began PCP pilot; raised FY25 rev guide to $80–$85M	PCP orders +75% Y/Y; PCP share ~11% in Sept; continued expansion	Improving adoption
Sales force ramp & productivity	Avg ~74 reps in Q2; expansion plan ongoing	Avg ~85 reps in Q3; aiming 93–97 in Q4; long‑term ~$1M/rep productivity target	Scaling with discipline
Gross margin trajectory	79–80% run‑rate	81% in Q3; expected ~80% into year‑end	Sustained high GM
Payer dynamics	Prior administrative barriers at some MA plans (context)	Large MA plan resumed paying current claims, aiding ARPT; older claims still not recognized/booked	Improving collections on current claims
Development Services	Growing backlog; records in Q2 ($12.5M)	$1.9M revenue (+97% Y/Y); $12.9M under contract (+16% Y/Y; record)	Backlog expanding
AI/technology	—	Multimodal (genomics, proteomics, radiomics) with AI central to platform	Strategic differentiator
Macro/supply chain	—	Supply cost pressure; macro uncertainty noted, but GM to remain ~80%	Watch but manageable
R&D execution & partnerships	Pipeline at AACR/ASCO; ALTITUDE enrollment reached (July)	Expanded Bio‑Rad ddPCR partnership; Nov. 12 AMP R&D event with Bio‑Rad, Thermo Fisher, MSK	Strengthening ecosystem

Management Commentary

CEO: “We delivered a strong third quarter with revenue growing 20% to $21.8 million and…gross margins to 81%, a 400‑basis point increase year‑over‑year.”
CEO: “Our strategic expansion into primary care is proving to be additive…partnering with [pulmonologists] to drive upstream testing in their referral network.”
CFO: “Our gross margin percentage…was 81%…we expect gross margins to remain near 80% to finish out the year.”
CEO/CFO: “We…are comfortable increasing our revenue guidance range for 2025 to $84‑$86 million” and “expect to achieve Adjusted EBITDA positivity in the fourth quarter.”

Q&A Highlights

Primary care proof points: Warm handoffs from pulmonologists into PCPs are improving adoption; early evidence shows earlier diagnoses in PCP settings, supporting the triage value proposition .
Sales ramp and productivity: Ramp consistent with pilot; management targeting a minimum ~$1M per rep over time; ~50 territories into 2026 with continued hiring at ~six reps per quarter .
Payer/MA dynamics: No unusual back claim revenue in Q3; gains driven by resumption of current MA payments; older claims remain unbooked; ASP uplift viewed as sustainable .
Mix and guidance: Raised FY revenue guide “heavily tied to diagnostics revenue”; services remains smaller but growing with a record backlog .
Capital and liquidity: Confidence in Q4 Adjusted EBITDA positivity; pursuing cash flow breakeven with existing business; ATM used partially to offset AR timing; cash collection occurred in Q4 .

Estimates Context

Revenue beat: $21.77M actual vs $20.98M consensus (+3.8%); five revenue estimates contributed* .
EPS beat: $(1.16) GAAP net loss/share vs $(1.506) Primary EPS consensus; five EPS estimates contributed* .
FY25 revenue: New guide $84–$86M vs consensus ~$84.5M*—implies high‑end bias and potential upward revisions to the FY revenue range and Q4 run‑rate assumptions .

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Biodesix posted a clean top‑line beat and expanded margins, while raising FY25 revenue guidance—narrative turning toward sustained high‑70s/low‑80s gross margins and near‑term profitability inflection (Adj. EBITDA positive targeted in Q4) .
Primary care channel traction is emerging as a second growth engine alongside pulmonology, expanding addressable ordering points and improving on‑site blood draw compliance (PCP orders +75% Y/Y; PCP share ~11% in September) .
Payer dynamics are improving: a large MA plan resumed paying current claims, supporting ARPT and collections; watch for any updates on older claim recoveries that could provide upside .
Development Services remains a strategic growth vector with $12.9M under contract (record), though quarterly revenue is lumpy; continued backlog growth de‑risks medium‑term services contribution .
Operating leverage is improving (OpEx down sequentially despite higher rep count), but absolute OpEx remains elevated; sustained discipline is key to converting gross margin strength into cash flow .
Near‑term catalysts: confirmation of Q4 Adjusted EBITDA positivity; incremental payer wins; data releases (ISLAC/ASCO NA in Dec) and Nov. 12 AMP R&D day (pipeline and partner updates) .
EPS comparability: 1‑for‑20 reverse stock split (effective Sept. 15) affects per‑share optics; focus on revenue, GM%, and Adjusted EBITDA trajectory for cleaner trend analysis .

BIODESIX INC (BDSX)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary