Beacon Roofing Supply - Q4 2022

Transcript

Speaker 0

Afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Beacon 4th Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Danielle, and I will be your coordinator for today. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. We will be conducting a question and answer session towards the end of this call. Today.

At that time, I will give you instructions on how to ask questions. As a reminder, today's conference call. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Bennett Sanghvi, Vice President, Capital Market and Treasurer. Please proceed, Mr.

Sanghvi.

Speaker 1

Today. Thank you, Danielle. Good afternoon, everybody, and thank you for taking the time to join us on our call today. Julian Francis, Deacon's Chief Executive Officer today. Sir, Frank Lenegro, our Chief Financial Officer, will begin with prepared remarks that will follow the slide deck posted to our Investor Relations section of Beacon's website.

Today's call. Before we begin, please open to Slide 2 for a couple of brief reminders. Today's conference call. First, this call will contain forward looking statements about the company's plans and objectives and future performance. Forward looking statements today's call.

And we identify it because they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts and use words such as anticipate, estimate, expect, believe today's call. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by such forward looking statements as a result of various important factors, including, today's call. We're not limited to those set forth in the Risk Factors section of the company's 2021 Form 10 ks.

Speaker 2

Today's call. 2nd, the forward

Speaker 1

looking statements contained in this call are based on information as of today, February 23, 2023. And except as required by law, the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any of these forward looking statements. Today's call. This call will contain references to certain non GAAP measures. The reconciliation of these non GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures today's press release and the appendix to the presentation accompanying this call.

Both the press release and the presentation are available on our website at today. And finally, I just want to remind everyone again that we have changed our fiscal year end today's call. As a result, today we're reporting our calendar year 2022 results as our fiscal year today's call. As well as the results of our fiscal Q4, which is comparable to our transition period in the prior year period. Today.

Now let's begin with opening remarks from Julian.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Bennett, and good afternoon, everyone. Let's begin on Slide 4. Today. I'm very pleased to report that we finished the year with another outstanding quarter. The team delivered 4th quarter record sales Records for net sales, net income and adjusted EBITDA.

Sales today were up 14% year over year As pricing execution drove higher net sales across all three lines of business, despite volume being lower By mid single digits. While we did see progressively weaker demand through the Q4, pricing held up and remained stable sequentially. Today. Residential volumes were lower as compared to a strong prior year and markets exposed to higher volume of new residential construction today. But I remind you that 80% of our sales come from repair and replacement activity.

Today. Nonresidential demand remains solid despite destocking at the contractor level and commercial roofing supply chain problems eased With lead times on the majority of products returning to more normal levels. This helped us to unlock more of the backlog today. It has built up over the past 2 years. We delivered higher than expected gross margin and recorded our 12th straight quarter of year over year increase today's call.

We also delivered today's call. Our best quarterly cash flow since the Q2 of 2020 as we focused on rightsizing our inventory and getting to jobs that have been delayed Due to supply chain problems, as we said we would on both our second and third quarter calls. We used the cash generated in the quarter today's call. To invest in value creating initiatives towards achieving our ambition 2025 targets while maintaining steady net debt leverage, preserving our balance sheet flexibility. During the Q4, we made 2 acquisitions, Coastal Construction Products and Whitney Building Products.

Today. Whitney is a distributor of commercial and multifamily waterproofing and restoration products located in Boston, Massachusetts. And we discussed the acquisition of Coastal on our November earnings call. We welcome the Whitney and Coastal teams and their customers to Beacon. We also accelerated our greenfield investments, expanding our branch footprint and enhancing service to our customers.

Our dedicated Greenfield team is executing at a very high level, which we will highlight later in our remarks. Today. Our share buyback program continues to be an important part of our balanced capital allocation approach, demonstrating our commitment to creating shareholder value today's conference call. You may recall that the buybacks are part of a 500,000,000 today's call. Thank you, Danielle.

Thank you, Danielle. Thank you, Danielle. Thank you, Danielle. Thank you, Danielle. Thank you, Danielle.

In the Q4, we made significant progress towards our goals, and we will continue to invest to generate profitable growth and returns for our shareholders, Make meaningful contributions to the communities in which we operate and build more for our customers and our employees so that they too can fulfill their potential. Today. Now please turn to Page 5. For those of you who have listened to our calls or attended our Investor Day, today. You know that we have a detailed strategy called ambition 2025.

It is a structured growth roadmap with initiatives that are targeted and measurable. Today. The goals we laid out are to grow the business to more than $9,000,000,000 in sales by 2025, an 8% compound annual growth rate from our 2021 baseline and to deliver EBITDA of about $1,000,000,000 in 2025, approximately a 10% annual growth rate. Today. Now on Page 6, I'll provide a brief update on our strategic initiatives, which will give you insight on how we are achieving our plan.

Today. Let me first highlight a couple of ways that we are building a winning culture. As you may recall, we announced a year ago today. So we have a goal to reduce the intensity of our Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by the year 2,030. Today.

I'm pleased to report that we have begun to take steps on this journey by piloting the use of electric vehicles in three areas of our operations. 1st, 2 electric delivery cranes, which eliminate job site idling, reduce fuel usage and noise pollution are deployed in a small number of markets. 2nd, we are testing electric forklifts in our warehouse. And third, we are using electric vans for express customer deliveries in California markets. Collectively, these initiatives demonstrate our commitment to leverage available technology today's call.

I'd also like to highlight how we have enhanced our capabilities and diversity at the Board level today. With the recent additions of Melanie Hart and Raquel Mason. Melanie has a wealth of distribution industry experience having spent 16 years with Pool Corp as well as financial and operational expertise that will no doubt be valuable as we progress towards our ambition 2025 financial targets. Today. Raquel's depth of management and marketing experience with some of the world's most iconic brands like Coca Cola As well as her work architecting cross enterprise digital transformation will benefit us as we drive growth and value for our customers.

Today. We welcome Melanie and Raquel and look forward to their contributions to our company. We are also driving above market growth and enhancing margins through a set of targeted initiatives. Expanding our footprint is a major lever in our growth plans, which includes strategic investments in greenfields and tuck in acquisitions. Our success in ramping up our dedicated greenfield team And accelerating investments in our pipeline is paying off.

We added 12 greenfields during the Q4 of the year in key growth markets, improving efficiency and enhancing customer service. This brought our total for the year to 16 locations. And as a reminder, our original ambition 2025 target was to add 10 facilities to our footprint each year, including 2022. Today. As mentioned previously, our dedicated M and A team also completed 2 acquisitions in the quarter, adding 19 branches today.

With the majority of locations being in the rapidly growing Southeast markets. Our set of initiatives designed to grow margins is also gaining momentum. Today. Our digital capability continues to be a clear competitive differentiator for Beacon and sales on our online platform increase customer loyalty, today. Generate larger basket size and deliver approximately 150 basis points of gross margin enhancements compared to offline channels.

Today. We are confident that we provide the most complete digital offering and continue to expand our capabilities to serve customers wherever and whenever they need. Today. At the same time, we are building upon our technology leadership by continuing to invest in making it easier for customers to do business with us anywhere and anytime. Today.

The actions include our recent digital integration with AccuLynx and the launch of our new Beacon Pro Plus mobile app today and are examples of how we are extending our leadership position. Through our continued investment, we achieved 26% digital sales growth year over year today's conference call. With nearly 19% of residential sales now going through our digital platform. As we have discussed for several quarters, We are driving operational excellence through our continuous improvement and productivity initiatives. Our focus on the bottom quintile branches today's conference call.

This consistently generated significant improvements to our service levels as well as tangible contribution at both the sales and EBITDA lines. Today. Our process is designed to improve the performance of these branches and the structure is simple and repeatable. We diagnose the root cause of the problem today and ensure that branch managers at these locations are properly supported to remedy the issues. This initiative continues to deliver tangible bottom line results today's conference call.

And contributed approximately $4,000,000 to the EBITDA line at the Q4 year on year.

Speaker 4

Today's

Speaker 3

call. Lastly, our strategic initiatives are designed to create shareholder value, We are committed to continuing to improve our returns for all owners of our stock. During the Q4, today. We completed our 2nd accelerated share repurchase program, retiring an additional 1,100,000 shares. Today.

The share repurchases demonstrate both our commitment to delivering value to shareholders and our confidence in the future. Today. As you can see, we have multiple paths to growth and margin expansion through the cycle. We have a differentiated approach today and have built the tools needed to achieve our ambition 2025 targets.

Speaker 4

Now let me pass the call over to Frank to provide a deeper focus today's call. Thanks, Julian, and good evening, everyone. Turning to Slide 8. Let me start by reminding everyone today. Sales in the Q4, up more than 14% on a per day basis year over year as higher average selling prices for our products today.

In the aggregate, price contributed approximately 17% to 18% to revenue growth. Our backlog conversion was a highlight in the quarter. And while it remained elevated compared to pre pandemic levels, It continued to come down from its peak in the second quarter and continues to be weighted toward non residential orders. Acquisitions including Midway Wholesale and today. Coastal construction products are performing well and more than offset the divestiture of our solar business on December 1, 2021.

Today. As a reminder, the results of the solar business are reflected in our prior year numbers as part of continuing operations. Today. Strong year over year pricing drove residential roofing sales per day higher by approximately 7%. Today.

I also want to highlight that the average selling price was stable sequentially from the Q3 to the Q4. As mentioned earlier, weakness in demand from our single family homebuilding customers caused shingle volumes to be lower by high single digits year over year. Please keep in mind that the prior year comparable was a today's call. Strong volume quarter, largely attributable to the late onset of winter, allowing for additional roofing days last year. Today.

Non residential roofing sales per day were up 27%, driven by price execution. Single ply volumes per day were higher year over year today. As the non res supply chain began to normalize during the quarter, however, destocking at the contractor level today's call. And tight material availability of certain accessories continue to impact project cycle times resulting in lower overall non res volumes down about 4% to 5% year over year. Complementary sales per day increased 16% year over year today.

Sales increased in our Siding products and our recent Coastal acquisition is performing well. Coastal, which closed on November 1, contributed 2 months of revenue, Driving sales of our waterproofing products higher year over year. Please keep in mind that with the addition of Coastal, our complementary product category now has approximately 70% residential and 30% nonresidential exposure. Turning to Slide 9, we'll review gross margin and operating today's conference call. Gross margin was 26.2% in the 4th quarter, exceeding the guidance we put out in November.

Today. Price cost was slightly favorable as higher average selling prices more than offset product inflation year over year. Higher nonresidential sales mix also contributed to the 10 basis point decline year over year. Adjusted OpEx was $364,000,000 today's call. An increase of $58,000,000 compared to the prior year quarter.

OpEx as a percentage of sales increased to 18.5% for 100 basis points year over year. The year over year change in OpEx was driven by inflationary pressures in areas including wages and benefits, insurance, fleet and fuel and travel and entertainment as well as lease related expenses such as rents and real estate taxes, utilities and maintenance costs. In addition, with persistent tightness in the labor markets, we continue to on the side of ensuring we have the resources necessary to deliver for our customers. Today's call. Variable expenses related to higher sales and profitability, including commissions, incentive compensation and stock based compensation also contributed to the increase.

In addition, recently acquired branches and greenfields opened in the last 12 months accounted for approximately $13,000,000 of the year over year increase. Although we continue to be ready to adjust to changing market conditions and respond to the impact of higher interest rates on our business, today. We remain focused on investing in initiatives through the cycle to drive above market growth and margin enhancement as part of Ambition 2025. Today. We are continuing to invest in projects related to our sales organization, customer experience initiative, pricing tools, e commerce and branch optimization.

These and other Ambition 2025 investments totaled approximately $11,000,000 within the operating expense line in the 3rd quarter Q4. Turning to Slide 10. Operating cash flow in the 4th quarter was strong at $320,000,000 our highest cash generation since the Q2 of 2020. This follows a tremendous cash quarter in the 3rd quarter, resulting in nearly $600,000,000 in cash generation in the back half of the year. As you can see on the chart, this is attributable in part today's call.

Speaker 2

To the

Speaker 3

reduction in net inventory as we return to a

Speaker 4

more normal seasonal pattern, on a year over year basis, 4th quarter inventory was higher by approx $160,000,000 driven by product cost inflation. Inventory from acquisitions and greenfield load ins also contributed to the increase. Today. We continue to balance our capital allocation between organic and inorganic growth opportunities and shareholder returns. Today.

As Julian mentioned, our ability to invest in greenfields and value creating acquisitions is underpinned by our ample balance sheet capacity. Today. We are investing higher amounts in our business, deploying more than $90,000,000 in capital expenditures in 2022. This not only included the investments in greenfields, but also the upgrading of our fleet and facilities as well as building out the technology tools that will benefit us in 2023 and beyond. As of the end of Q4, our net debt leverage was at the low end of the 2x to 3x range outlined at Investor Day, And we retained liquidity of more than $1,000,000,000 Turning to shareholder returns.

We completed the 2nd accelerated share repurchase program in the 4th quarter, which resulted in the retirement of slightly more than 1,000,000 additional shares. Net of share issuance for stock based compensation, we reduced our common shares outstanding today's call. $64,200,000 at December 31 versus $70,400,000 at the same time last year. Today. We exhausted just over 75 percent of the $500,000,000 buyback authorization we announced in February of last year.

Today. In summary, we continue to have ample capacity to invest in opportunities through the cycle, an active acquisition pipeline and a significant jump start for achieving our ambition 2025 goals. We are confident in our ability to successfully compete in and react to changing market conditions today and look forward to a successful start to the year. Now I will turn the call back to Julian for his closing remarks.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Frank. Today's conference call. Please turn

Speaker 2

to Page 12 of the slide materials.

Speaker 3

Before we move to our outlook, I'd like to take a minute to reflect on the impressive results of 2022 and the progress we have made towards the ambition 2025 targets we conveyed 1 year ago. In 2022, we produced sales growth of 24% with higher revenue across all three of our lines of business. We delivered $910,000,000 in adjusted EBITDA and our 2nd consecutive calendar year of double digit EBITDA margins. We delivered record sales in our national accounts, Private label and digital initiatives, which deliver both enhanced growth and margin. We generated $36,000,000 in additional adjusted EBITDA from our bottom quintile branch initiative, nearly half of our $75,000,000 the ambition 2025 target in our 1st year.

We welcomed 5 new acquisitions, adding 22 branches, new markets and capabilities. And we opened 16 greenfields across 12 states, enhancing our service to our customers. We filled several key leadership positions within our sales force, strategic lines of business and leadership ranks, while at the same time advancing our diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives. Today. We repurchased and retired 6,800,000 shares, representing more than 3 quarters today's call.

The $500,000,000 share repurchase authorization announced at the Investor Day last year. In summary, today's conference call. Our performance in 2022 has created significant value for our customers and shareholders and positioned us to deliver on our ambition 2025 targets. Let's turn to Page 13. Before we head to Q and A, I'd like to provide our 2023 market today's conference call.

Much of which to remain consistent with our remarks from November. Market demand will very likely be lower this year, especially in new residential construction. And we do not expect to see the broad based inflation in products or label markets today's call. As we have experienced over the last 2 years, we have been preparing for these market changes for several months and will, of course, continue to today. We expect aggregate demand to remain above pre pandemic levels, indicating a healthy end market, supported by non discretionary repair and replacement activity as well as storm related demand in parts of Florida, California and the Midwest.

For the Q1, We expect total sales growth to be approximately 5% year over year or around 3.5% on a sales per day basis.

Speaker 2

Today's conference call.

Speaker 3

This is somewhat less than the 5.5% growth per day that we saw in January, largely due to the lapping of a late January today's call. Our Q1 guide reflects the continued weakness We expect softness in our commercial roofing shipments, mainly resulting from continued destocking at the contractor level rather than a step down in construction activity. With respect to gross margin, we expect to be in the 25.5% range,

Speaker 2

which is

Speaker 3

down relative to the record prior year quarter, which had significant inventory profits.

Speaker 2

Today's call. Before we

Speaker 3

talk about the full year, let me take a minute to give you our base case assumptions that will underpin the guidance. As mentioned, We expect rising interest rates to bring softness in the regions that have higher exposure to new residential construction. Although, I would like to note that today's call. Sentiment has significantly improved recently and that the majority of the air pocket in homebuilder demand should be felt in the first half of the year. Today.

With respect to the residential reroofing end market, we expect very good demand as compared to historical levels Supported in part from storm demand and the reroof cycle. Regarding commercial roofing, we are closely monitoring the architectural billing index, which is down from last year's highs, but has seen steady improvement since November. We also see a shift from new construction today's call. To repair and reroofing activity as the year progresses. With the addition of Coastal Construction Products and Whitney Building Products, We will also leverage the enhanced offering within complementary products to help us grow above market.

For the full year, today's call. We expect net sales growth in the range of 2% to 4%. This includes contributions from acquisitions previously announced. Today. Regarding gross margin, inventory profit roll off will more than offset the structural improvements from our initiatives, including higher private label and digital sales.

With all that in mind, we expect adjusted EBITDA between $810,000,000 $870,000,000 in 2023. We continue to expect inventory today's call. To follow a more normal pattern of seasonality as material availability continues to improve. We expect this to contribute to higher cash flow conversion 2022. The difference between our low and high end of the range will largely depend on storm volumes and the extent to which the downturn in new construction persists.

More importantly, our focus will continue to be on the areas within our control, including enhancing our customer experience, delivering operational excellence, pricing and daily execution on safety, service and efficiency. Today. We will continue to invest in initiatives that we expect will result in accelerated growth with acquisitions and at least 15 additional greenfield locations. We're investing in improving our operations, delivering results today, But also getting ready for the future. And last, but certainly not least, we continue to be committed to generating returns for our shareholders and are announcing an increase in our existing stock repurchase plan.

The new approval from our Board is in the amount of $500,000,000 today's call. Inclusive of the remaining $112,000,000 outstanding authorization at the end of the Q4 of 2022. Today. In summary, our business model is resilient and we are positioned to outperform the market in this dynamic demand environment creating value for all our stakeholders. We are looking forward to the rest of 2023 and as always helping our customers build more.

Today. With that, I'd like to open the lines for questions.

Speaker 0

Today. First question comes from the line of Kathryn Thompson of Thompson Research Group. Please proceed.

Speaker 5

Today. Hi. Thank you for taking my question today. Just a clarification on What you said in your prepared commentary and how it also bakes into your outlook. You'd indicated that You've seen an improvement at Trinity.

Could you just flush that out a little bit more in terms of what is what are the factors that are driving this observation. And then against that backdrop, you do have inventories are up year over year about 13%. Today. How much of that is volume versus price? And where do you think we are right now in light of the current balance of supply and demand today.

Thanks,

Speaker 3

Catherine. There was a lot wrapped up in the question. I think that the first part of it was related to the trends that we're seeing in the marketplace and our sort of belief in our optimism. Look, obviously, we said that we believe that volumes will be down year over year. We think that as we indicated in prior calls as well that that is primarily related to New residential construction that we think will be down double digits plus.

We do think the reroof market On the residential side, we'll be down mid single digits give or take. And commercial, we still believe We're going to see about a flat market. We are anticipating we've had lower levels of storm Over the past couple of years and we're expecting that the way we're forecasting it is to return to the 10 year average. So we see a little bit of lift In that and obviously with the storms we saw in Florida at the end of last year, the weather that we've seen in California over the winter And sort of continuation of some of the storms that hit the Midwest, the upper Midwest last year, We expect all of those markets to be relatively stronger. Obviously, the sentiment coming out of the 1st month of the year, I think there was a lot of commentary about the Builders Show being both much more positive.

Certainly, our contacts in the builders, The building community are much more positive than they were perhaps 2 or 3 months ago. So we're seeing that trend come through. I I wouldn't say we're not seeing that in the business today. It's still obviously down, but it is also February. But I think overall, what we're also seeing is execution on our initiatives.

We're seeing the traction We expected to see that we got from the plans that we announced and the actions that we've been taking. We're seeing great results. We're seeing Terrific results from the acquisitions. We were terrifically pleased to add 12 greenfields In the Q4, I don't know that we can keep up that target pace for a whole year. I'm not sure that would be the right answer either.

But Those are going to contribute more this year than they did last year and we're going to add additional greenfields in this year. So we've got lifts from Those activities as well. So overall, I feel like we're executing very, very well. I think that today. I mean the overall levels of market demand, while down from the last year, 2 years, today.

Yes. There's high levels relative to pre pandemic and we think they're constructive markets. I'll let Frank, weigh in on inventory levels, but overall, pretty positive.

Speaker 4

Yes. Hey, Catherine. So you're right, it's up $160,000,000 year over year. When you break that down, about $200,000,000 is inflation, about $40,000,000 to $50,000,000 is M and A in Greenfields. So you're looking at at least $80,000,000 from lower units.

If you just look at it Q4 ending year over year. In terms of the forward view, obviously, we're balancing a couple of different things. We want to make sure we have the products available for our customers, we also want to improve our turns in 2023 relative to where we were in the last couple of years. And then supply chains are normalizing. They're not normalized, but they are normalizing.

So we want to take advantage of the lower lead times. I would expect us to continue to right size inventory, maybe not as much in Q1, just given the lower sales level, but you should continue to expect us To get a little bit better on inventory as we progress to the midpoint of the year, obviously assuming we get a decent sales season in the spring.

Speaker 2

Today. Thank you.

Speaker 0

The next question comes from Michael Dahl of RBC. Please proceed.

Speaker 6

Today. Hi, thanks for taking my question. A lot in here. I guess just to follow-up, Julian, that was helpful, the additional color on the end markets. I mean, correct me if I'm wrong, but it sounds like you're planning And for a volume environment that's down maybe mid to high single digits on a blended basis, you're guiding to sales growth of 2% to 4 today's call.

Acquisitions add in a few percent. So I guess the delta has to be some combination of price mix and the greenfield contributions. So maybe can you help walk us through your expectations for price mix contribution if you could by segment. And then if you could maybe help us just ballpark all these greenfields, what the cumulative contribution is expected

Speaker 7

to be this year? Today.

Speaker 3

You're right. There is a lot in that. We'll I'll touch on it in general. I know Frank will have a little bit more detail for you. And I think as we think about The greenfield, to start there.

We see the sales begin On day 1, we had a ramp that was built into forecasts that sort of led to stable normalized business after 3 to 5 years. I think in the last 12 months or so with this greenfields ramping up and the today's call. The demand environment that we've seen, we probably had a little bit of a quicker ramp in many of these branches That we anticipated. So, they've been more productive sooner than we're anticipating for sure. Obviously, the demand environment, the pricing environment It's been positive to that as well.

We would expect to see that roll off. As we said, we continue to see a good demand environment. I mean, if If you look back historically, this type of market would have been productive for both price and volume. So we're expecting to see a sort of relatively sideways movement on most of the business. Volumes will be down.

We'll have price carryover in all segments of our business In all the lines of business. So that will give us a little bit of a lift as well with that price carryover. Obviously, that will come mostly in The Q1 and the first half will ease off given how pricing shaped up last year. But The one area I think that I can elaborate a little bit more on might be in the Commercial Roofing segment. I mean one of the things that we saw there and we've today.

To emphasize this a few times now is that as the supply chain really locked up, froze up during the pandemic, There was a shift to the new construction market And away from the reroofing market, which just didn't get done, quite frankly. There was a lot of backlog The built in the reroof side. We expect to see that reroof unlocked now in a more normal environment with The volumes coming through with the supply chain sort of unfreezing.

Speaker 4

That will allow us to unlock a lot of

Speaker 3

the backlog. So we believe that that's going to be a constructive environment. The dip as we said we follow the Architectural Billing Index, the dip in that Down off the highs in the middle of last year and the year before, we think a lot of that work just didn't get done. And what we've seen over the last 90, 120 days in that segment of the market in the ABI is really a reflection of Things starting to just get backed up and that air pocket that was in that is actually being filled by work that didn't get done. So We see a pretty constructive environment.

We're not seeing dramatic changes in inflation In the manufacturer base, so we're not seeing a lot of Inflation come through in their raw materials, but neither are we seeing an enormous amount of deflation come through there. So I don't think the manufacturers have got a lot of To sort of try to move some things and then demand levels remain,

Speaker 4

like I said, pretty constructive. Mike, I'll try to unpack a little bit more for you. In terms of the market, so take this as a proxy for Volumes, to the point you were making, it's probably on an ex storm basis, something in the down mid to high single digits. Resi is probably more toward the upper end of that commercial is relatively flat as Julian mentioned and then complementary is obviously a blend in that seventythirty that we mentioned in the prepared remarks, so probably down in the mid range. Once you start from there, then we start to build a bit.

The storm planning assumption that we have is the 10 year average, so that adds 2% or 3% there. You've got Ian. You've got the hailstorms in the Midwest from last year and then the California rainstorm. So we're expecting some lift there. Relative price stability is certainly Helpful.

The Ambition 2025 initiatives, which would include the greenfield initiative, the customer experience, the sales workforce improvements and additions that we're doing, Probably had something in the mid singles range there. Order of magnitude for the Greenfields, in an absolute today's conference call. We were at about $35,000,000 in Q4 if you looked at that on a year over year basis because we did have a few greenfields in the prior year, was about 30. We're going to begin to lap some of those later in the year given the pace of Greenfield's openings that we did this year. Coastal and some of the smaller acquisitions that we did in 2022 should add about 2% or 3%.

We'll get 10 months' worth of Coastal That performed quite well for us in Q4. And you put all that together, and you're looking at that 2% to 4% revenue growth that we mentioned in the prepared remarks. And then remember, we are going to continue to be acquisitive. So future acquisitions in 2023 are not part of this guide, Not understanding exactly when the timing and the magnitude of those will be. It's hard to bake those in, but just know that those are not in there at present.

Speaker 0

Today. Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Ryan Merkel with William Blair. Please proceed.

Speaker 8

Hey guys, what is your outlook for gross margin in 2023? And then what is your estimate for price cost? Today.

Speaker 4

Yes. Hey, Brian. I'd say mid-25s on gross margin, down obviously about 100,000,000 Excuse me, 100 basis points, apologies, about 100 basis points against last year. The big driver there is inventory profits. I mean, we're going to roll today's conference call.

Something around 130 basis points, and most of that's going to be in your price cost. It's not that the selling price is impacted. It's just today's call. The cost catch up finally, given all the manufacturer increases last year, but that's going to be partially offset by a couple of different things, the structural Improvements that we are making in the bottom quintile branches, digital private label, etcetera, and some accretion from the acquisitions. Today's call.

Coastal is a margin accretive acquisition for us. And then we likely will have, especially in the second half of the year, Higher commercial mix impact as well. So you roll all that through, and you're going to see the inventory profit roll off show up largely in price cost.

Speaker 0

Today. Thank you. The next question comes from Garik Shmois with Loop Capital. Please proceed.

Speaker 7

Hi, thanks for having me on. I'm just wondering how to think about operating expenses in

Speaker 2

today. I mean,

Speaker 4

in the overall, I think I would put it in the if you looked at an OpEx to sales ratio, Garrick, I think it's somewhere in that 17% to 17.5 SunRains, as Julian mentioned, we're going to continue to focus hard on productivity. If and when volumes today. Go one way or another, we're going to have to variabilize with those. We're resetting the bonus to targets. Inflation is still in the business on the cost side, So we've got a lot to stomach there, and I read off a litany of things in the prepared remarks.

Those are going to be the same inflationary items as we go forward into next year. And we did say and believe strongly that we need to continue to invest through the cycle. So you're going to see us invest in the 825, Ambition 2025 initiatives. So the greenfields, the sales and sales support teams, the M and A teams, the service capabilities that we're creating, today's call. Branch Optimization, OTC, I mean, all the things that you've heard us talk about, we're going to continue to invest in those.

If volumes take a dramatic step down, obviously, that will Pull out the old COVID playbook and work from that, but we don't see that happening in 2023. So managing them but also investing is going to be the important thing for us to do.

Speaker 3

Yes. As a part of our ambition 2025 plan, we've committed to OpEx levels of productivity to get us there. It is something that we're focused on, but we remain confident that we can deliver against that plan and that sort of level of spending relative to sales.

Speaker 0

Today. Thank you. The next question comes from Truman Patterson of Wolfe Research. Please proceed.

Speaker 9

Hey, good afternoon guys. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to discuss the bottom quintile branch performance. Today's call. I think EBITDA benefit was $36,000,000 in 2022.

Is that purely on kind of the relative 2 improvement versus other branches. And how are you all thinking about the potential there in 2023 improvement to your bottom line.

Speaker 4

Hey, Truman. So Good call out on the BQBs. So yes, dollars 36,000,000 and again on the backs of, I think, dollars 50,000,000 or more $1,000,000 last year and $25,000,000 2020, so that initiative continues to bear fruit on an annual basis. That is the year over year change in bottom line today. Dollars profitability dollars of that same set of branches in the prior year versus that same set of branches in the current year.

So it is true bottom line improvement for from that group of the bottom quintile branches. If you unpack that a little bit, The EBITDA margin improvement was over 200 basis points in those branches, so we did a really nice job of driving that. It is both on the gross margin percentage line as well as on the OpEx leverage line, probably a little bit more on the OpEx side in those set of branches in 2022. And interestingly, the sales growth in those branches on a full year basis was higher than the company average. Today.

So those branches really did a nice job. We still think there's a ton of opportunity there. There's hundreds of basis points difference between the bottom quintile and what we call the performing branches, so the other 80% of the branches. So we still think there's a lot of fruit there.

Speaker 0

Thank you. Today. The next question comes from the line of Philip Ngi with Jefferies. Please proceed.

Speaker 7

Today. Hey, guys. Congrats on another strong quarter. Great execution. Julien, you mentioned that you're seeing some destocking at the contractor level on the the commercial side.

Can you expand on kind of where you guys are in that process seeing any other areas where you're seeing destocking? Today. And certainly on the commercial side, the reason why you ask is because pricing has been so explosive. Any concerns that you can see some degradation there this year?

Speaker 3

Yes. So it's a great question, Philip. And the visibility in Contractor inventories, which is, first of all, not something that I would have been saying 3 years ago. It's just an unusual situation that they would be taking in Inventory and Management. That's I just think that emphasizes how different this environment has been.

So We believe that the Q1 this year, you'll see a good deal of destocking there. I don't think the contractors particularly want to hold that. The information that we have suggests that they took out short term leases on warehouse locations in order to stock at the stocking of job sites, which has risk to it as well. So we think this will today's conference call. Short lived phenomenon.

We should be through it hopefully. Certainly by I think the middle of the year, we would expect to see The majority of that get worked through. But it is something that we're not it's not been typical to see. Today. I do want to emphasize there was a good deal of destocking in Q4, both at the contractor level and at the distributor level.

I think that's reflected in the manufacturer shipment data that you saw. And again, your question related to The pricing, I mean pricing was pretty stable year over year and sequentially. The other thing is that we're seeing is that, as I keep emphasizing, the end markets are pretty solid. We expect a pretty good year In both the commercial markets and the residential markets, we think there'll be a little bit of a move away from New construction to repair and replacement in both of those markets. I think that on the commercial side particularly, that usually benefits us in that a lot more goes through today's call.

Our warehouses as we fulfill replacement roofs as opposed to some of the direct ship It goes to news. So we believe we saw a shift there. So like I said, I think it's been positive. You're right, there has been explosive growth in The pricing in the commercial arena, but so far we've seen a relatively constructive market. I think that the fact that There is a bunch of inventory out there, creates some incentives to make sure that you don't see degradation in that level of pricing.

So Overall, look, things can change, but we believe today that we're seeing a pretty constructive market with good end use demand And generally a positive environment.

Speaker 0

Today. Thank you. The next question comes from Keith Hughes of Truist. Please proceed.

Speaker 7

Thank you. You talked on the Q1 guidance about the level of OpEx, which puts up a good bit year over year, so over the 4th. Could you talk about what's driving that up? And do those any of those costs abate to get to this mid-seventeen number you're talking about as the year goes along?

Speaker 4

Keith, so yes, I think if you go back and look at the prepared remarks on Q4, you're going to see Pretty much the exact same set of factors in Q1. As Julian and I both mentioned in our remarks, Holding on to employees in what is still a very persistent labor market, especially in the trucking and warehouse and helper and all the folks who deliver for us every single day. I mean, today. The job market is still tight and we don't want to put ourselves in a situation where we make a shortsighted decision in the winter and end up coming out in the spring and not having Enough folks to handle the demand that we would expect on a kind of a normal spring construction season basis. Maybe one data point that might be today.

Helpful. In the implication of about $40,000,000 year over year, about half of that's going to be the payroll and benefit side and half of that's going to be from M and today. So don't forget about the fact that we've got M and A in Greenfield, etcetera, that are going to continue to add to the OpEx line. We will begin to cycle some of those investments as we go throughout the year. Obviously, we're not going to run a 2020 or 2021 leverage throughout the year in order to get down to that 17% to 17.5% that I mentioned in response to the earlier question.

Speaker 0

Today. Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Trey Grooms of Stephens. Please proceed. Today.

Speaker 10

Hey, good afternoon. So, Julian and Frank, you mentioned on the guide there, new res Down double digit plus, I think I heard that right, which makes sense. And res reroofing down, today. I think it was high single digits give or take. But given the highly nondiscretionary nature of reroofing and some storm related demand you talked about.

Is this pullback and reroofing in 2023 more of a function of some pull forward of demand over the last few years or are you starting to see homeowners start to try to delay some of these repairs or replacement projects today. Given the uncertainty and higher cost to borrow, if you could just help us understand kind of some of those drivers on the weaker reroof today's portion of the business.

Speaker 3

Yes. Look, I think that the last couple of years have been today. Pretty unique in terms of what we've seen with people being literally forced to stay at home. And I think there's been a little bit of Work that got done there that was perhaps more discretionary than non discretionary. The non discretionary part is not discretionary.

So we would continue to see that. The storm related demand is we do think that is up. That's in our guide. As We always go back to the 10 year average there. So that is a little bit of a lift.

Speaker 4

I don't know that we're seeing

Speaker 3

consumers pull back, I think was the word But inevitably higher rates when a lot of roofs are refinanced is going to have an impact at the margin. I think that we see that. The other thing that you would typically see is part of the reroof demand It is created by the turnover in housing. So as houses change hands, that's when you do the inspection. The inspection comes back and says, Yes.

The roof's old, you should do that. As houses turnover less and obviously there is a little bit of Jam up in that market as you don't want to leave your 3% mortgage home and go get one right now because you're going to pay 6%. So So we're going to see we think we're going to see a little bit of lower turnover in the housing stock And that will lead to slightly lower level of demand as reroof gets done on turnover. So that's really it. So I don't see that as consumer pullback and saying I was going to do a roof, I'm not going to do it now I'm trying to something.

It's more related to housing stock turnover and the ability then for the homeowners to get the house inspected and to drive that. So that's where I think this forecast is really coming from and hopefully that's helpful.

Speaker 0

Today. Thank you. The next question comes from the line of David MacGregor of Longbow Research. Please proceed.

Speaker 7

Yes, good afternoon everybody. And Julian, congratulations on all the progress. It's really remarkable what you I guess I wanted to ask you about price discipline. And Beacon's obviously demonstrated over the past couple of years the the positive impact of being disciplined on pricing. But at the same time, we all realize that in a more challenging volume environment, promotional programs are going to become more pervasive.

So How do you balance the need for pricing discipline and a slower macro with the need to maintain or grow your market share?

Speaker 3

Yes. It's a great question. And I think it comes back today. Again, to look, we actually think demand is pretty good. If we were looking at this demand environment Coming from a 135% armor number and The ABI index from Loewe coming up, we'll be talking completely differently about it.

And I think that what we The reality of the marketplace is that when you get that type of price competition is when people are like, I can't cover my today. I'm worried about this. The manufacturers are making moves. I mean, I don't think you've got that environment. The overall demand levels are pretty good.

Yes, they're down, But that is still higher than it was pre pandemic. And I think other than 2017, which was a big storm year. I think we're all in The frame of mind that this is probably going to be as good a year as we've had in the last 15 other than maybe 2017 and the last 2 or so. Today. So I do think that we've got a little bit of a sort of distorted perspective on what's going on In the market, I think it's a constructive environment.

I think that it's not. We're starting for volume and we need to cover fixed costs. I don't think that we're facing that. I don't think any of the manufacturers are facing that. So I think the environment It's probably more supportive than I think people are managing given that we're talking about double digit declines in new housing.

We're watching it carefully. Obviously, the run up in pricing has been incredibly supportive. But also remember, This is inflation that ran through raw materials as well. It's yes, we've enhanced our margins. I think the manufacturers have probably enhanced theirs as well.

But today. We're not talking so far out of sort of historical norms that it's just inevitable But it's going to come back down. I still continue to believe that it's going to be there's going to be a sense that This is a sustainable market. Our costs are up. I think that a lot of what we've seen, particularly at Beacon in the last 2 to 3 years, The inflation has masked the improvement that we've done, our self help initiatives.

Speaker 8

It's like I said,

Speaker 3

I can't I'm not going to look into the crystal ball and say it will never happen, but The environments just doesn't seem to me to be cohesive to destructive actions in the marketplace right now.

Speaker 4

One other point maybe is just what we did on inventory. I mean, we took a very constructive view on inventory in the middle of 2022, realized that things We're likely going to soften up as the Fed engaged in its pace of rate increases. And as you can see, we methodically worked that down over the past couple of quarters and I think have it in a much better place than it was in the middle of the year in 2022. And That framework and that methodology that we used, I think was very constructive to where things are from a pricing perspective.

Speaker 3

Yes. We saw destocking throughout the Q4, not just in us. Volumes are down, manufacturer shipments were down and prices were stable sequentially. So I think that's An element of that is a proof point of what we continue to believe the market will bear.

Speaker 0

Today. Thank you. The next question comes from Ketan Mamtora of BMO. Please proceed.

Speaker 8

Today. Thank you and congratulations on a strong 2022. I just want to ask today. So where you are seeing the most M and A opportunity within your portfolio? And how do you think about it in the context of sort of balance sheet leverage given at least the economic environment is looking uncertain.

Speaker 3

Today. Thanks for the question, Ketan. It's an interesting one. Look, I think that The opportunities are manifold across all segments of our business. Today.

I think the acquisition of Coastal was a little bit of a game changer in the sort of waterproofing and The repair markets for those product lines, I think that has sort of increased. Today. The opportunities we have in that space, obviously, shortly after that, we completed another acquisition in that today's call. So we're seeing the opportunities there perhaps ramp up a little bit. Obviously, we've had several terrific years in all of our markets.

Today. And I think it's as we start to think about what the future holds, We believe there's going to be M and A opportunity in a lot of different areas, I think, in the segments. Obviously, we committed to Being disciplined, we're very conscious of our trading multiple and the commitment that we made to Ensure that we were at synergized levels, we could get acquisitions done at reasonable cost. We're going to remain disciplined. We believe that we're still a great buy in this marketplace and we've got a share buyback program now that So our capital allocation approach is flexible.

If we don't see the opportunity to Do what we believe is significant accretive M and A then we've got the option to toggle more towards share buybacks and we think that's the right approach. But It's really across everything. I would say that the acquisition we made in the waterproofing space has probably opened up a little bit of our aperture there.

Speaker 4

Yes. Hey, Ketan. I think on the M and A side, you should just know that as we have said in prior quarters, we have a very active pipeline and are Involved in a number of both bilateral as well as process oriented conversations with potential sellers. Your leverage question, Just like we said at the Investor Day, we are going to be very disciplined in terms of capital allocation. We are going to still stay well within the 2x to 3x range.

We're at 2.0 coming out of the prior year. We've got a strong cash generation year ahead of us in 2023. So We feel like we have some deployable capital. And as Julian mentioned, we'll toggle back and forth between M and A and buybacks just depending on the availability and the time frame.

Speaker 0

Today. Thank you. The next question comes from Stanley Elliott of Stifel. Please proceed.

Speaker 4

Today. Thanks. Hello, everybody. Thanks for the question. Can you talk a little bit about kind of what's happening with the National today.

If my math is right, I mean, you're basically at the $1,000,000,000 number almost right now. Some of that is today. With the move into coastal and the water remediation piece, what sort of having more of a national footprint is helping That and really just to make curious, do you have on the National Accounts? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Sure. Look, our National Accounts today's conference call. Business has been terrific. They're executing very well. And today.

I think that the value proposition that we bring as a national supplier is being recognized By those accounts, you're right. We set out a $1,000,000,000 number and that broadly add $1,000,000,000 Obviously, we're going to push them To raise their numbers so that we can continue that growth, but we do think that it is an area where Our competitive advantages that we articulated at Investor Day around the scale advantages that we have, The network model where our branches act as a market, as a team in a market and our ability to Make sure we can serve customers market to market. That is a tremendous advantage to national account type customers. And then the investments that we make in private label digital, these are things that the national account customers value greatly. So I think that has been a tremendous success.

Obviously, inflation has also played a big part In that growth, so that I won't discount that. It's not been all volume related, but we're very pleased. Now inside of that, I would tell you that the large homebuilder segment is a part of our national accounts team. So we're watching that very carefully. Obviously, We've seen it down in terms of volume.

The more positive sentiment starting the year has been good news. But again, we believe we provide tremendous value. Today. In terms of the waterproofing segment of the business post coastal, today. We were very, very thoughtful in going into this.

As we thought about our portfolio A couple of years ago, obviously, we divested interiors. We divested the solar business. We were very conscious about Keeping our existing waterproofing business that we had primarily on the West Coast, we believe this was a great segment for us To invest in, we thought the markets dynamics were going to be pro growth. We did not see any other players on a national basis. And we thought we had the opportunity to build The nation's leading waterproofing specialty distributor.

The overlap with the roofing business is high. There's a lot of back and forth on that. But the Coastal acquisition has opened our aperture, and I think we believe that there's probably more opportunity today's conference call. Now than we thought going in. It's a terrific team.

It's a very technical sale. It's a highly specified sale. And that tends to lead to good repeat business. And given, like you said, the trends, Climate related moves. Certainly, the tragedy In Florida, with the collapse of the condo building that was related to waterproofing, all of these, we believe, point to a segment of the market We'll see enhanced growth over the next several years and we believe now that we're the leading player in the market.

Speaker 0

Today. Thank you. And our final question comes from Michael Rehaut with JPMorgan. Please proceed.

Speaker 7

Hi, guys. Doug Wardlow on for Mike. I was just wondering regarding your 2023 today. How much contribution are you assuming from Ambition 2025, particularly as it relates to lower quintile performance, the digital initiatives and private label. If you can just add a little bit of color around those three points.

Speaker 3

Yes. I think the

Speaker 4

easiest way to dimensionalize it for you is to just think through the Revenue element of things, and then you can imply a fairly standard EBITDA margin to it. But if you think about Greenfields, OSRs, the customer experience initiative, things that are excluding M and A, today. You're probably in that 4% to 5% revenue growth range. And then you think about M and A that we've already done, how that carries over Into the year 2023, it would be in that 2% to 3% range.

Speaker 3

So I think if you took

Speaker 4

that and dimensionalize that into dollars and then implies your sort of average contribution to the bottom line, you get to a pretty good number.

Speaker 0

Today's call. I would now like to pass the conference back over to the management team for closing remarks.

Speaker 3

Today. Thank you, Daniel. I appreciate all of the questions today and all of you attending. I do want to reflect on what was A really terrific 2022. Market conditions were obviously helpful, The execution that our team demonstrated, I think, was really outstanding and delivered results that I think were well beyond what was anticipated 12 months ago.

We're certainly excited, and I want to offer my today's conference call. Sincere thanks to all of our 7,000 plus team members for a really outstanding 2022. Today. Thanks to all on the call for your interest in Beacon, and we wish you the best in this year.

Speaker 0

Today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your