Berry Global Group - Q3 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good day. Welcome to the Q3 2023 Berry Global Group Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Dustin Stilwell, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Dustin Stilwell (VP of Investor Relations)

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Berry's third fiscal quarter, 2023 earnings call. Throughout this call, we will refer to the third fiscal quarter as the June 2023 quarter. Before we begin our call, I would like to mention that on our website, we have provided a slide presentation to help guide our discussion this morning. After today's call, a replay will also be available on our website at berryglobal.com under our Investor Relations section. Joining me from the company, I have Berry's Chief Executive Officer, Tom Salmon, and Chief Financial Officer, Mark Miles. Following Tom and Mark's comments today, we'll have a question and answer session. In order to allow everyone the opportunity to participate, we do ask that you limit yourself to one question at a time and then fall back into the queue for any additional questions.

As referenced on slide two, during this call, we will be discussing some non-GAAP financial measures. The most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of the differences between the GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures are available in our earnings release and investor presentation on our website. Please note that in our commentary today and within our presentation, when we compare our results to the prior year quarter or full year, we have adjusted to present on a constant currency basis and remove the impact of divested businesses to provide the appropriate comparable results. A reconciliation to reported results have been provided in our earnings release in the appendix of our presentation. Finally, a reminder that certain statements made today may be forward-looking statements.

These statements are made based upon management's expectations and beliefs concerning future events impacting the company, and therefore involve a number of uncertainties and risks, including but not limited to those described in our earnings release, annual report on Form 10-K and other filings within the SEC. Therefore, the actual results of operations or financial condition of the company could differ materially from those expressed or implied in our forward-looking statements. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Berry's CEO, Tom Salmon.

Thomas Salmon (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you, Dustin. Welcome, everyone, thank you for being with us today. Turning to our key takeaways for the quarter on slide 4. Today, we're pleased to reiterate our outlook for fiscal 2023, which is in line with our previously announced range. Our commitment to improving our mix of high-value growth products and implementing structural cost reductions has effectively offset weaker demand from customers, including destocking initiatives. Our cost actions include site rationalizations, moving business to more cost-efficient facilities, and labor cost reductions, all enabling improved productivity. Notably, we've made strategic investments in high-growth markets such as foodservice, health and beauty, dispensing, and pharmaceuticals, with a strong focus on sustainability-linked customer projects. Moreover, we have been dedicated to returning capital to our shareholders, having already purchased nearly 7 million shares in fiscal 2023, amounting to 5.6% of total outstanding shares.

Looking ahead, we expect to meet our commitment of repurchasing $600 million of shares in fiscal 2023. Our unwavering commitment to strengthen our balance sheet has led us to lower our long-term leverage target to 2.5x to 3.5x, and expect to be at 3.7x at the end of this fiscal year. We plan to be below 3.5x by the end of fiscal 2024 and well within our new targeted range. While we recognize that overall market demand may present challenges for the remainder of the calendar year, we remain very optimistic. By making long-lasting structural cost improvements and advancing our strategic initiatives, we are confident in exiting 2023 as a much stronger and more focused company. Turning now to the financial results on slide 5.

Earnings for the June 2023 quarter were modestly below our expectation, mainly due to higher inflation impacting market demand. During the quarter and throughout the year, the teams have performed exceptionally well on things within our control. We achieved another quarter of positive price cost spread from inflation recovery, and we successfully implemented strong cost reductions and mix improvements across our businesses. Although our efforts were partially impacted by overall soft end market demand, we're encouraged by the fact that it aligns with what our global customers have experienced and the trends they've reported across various regions. Looking ahead, we anticipate an improvement in volumes in all 4 segments sequentially compared to prior year quarter, especially with the inflationary pressures easing on consumers. In addition, we are thrilled to announce our inclusion in the S&P MidCap 400 Index on 20 June.

This is a significant milestone for Berry, reflecting our strong progress as a leading global packaging company committed to providing protective and sustainable solutions to our worldwide customers. During the quarter, we performed well, achieving strong operational performance, including progress on energy reduction and labor stability. We also took additional cost reduction actions, including rationalizing facilities to optimize our assets, reducing our footprint by a total of 20 facilities, resulting in a total annualized savings of $140 million from our cost initiatives, of which $75 million is expected to be realized in fiscal 2023. Additionally, we remain dedicated to providing strong capital returns to our shareholders, having returned $513 million through share repurchases and dividends in the first 3 quarters of the year.

Furthermore, and in line with this commitment, we expect to repurchase nearly 3 million shares, or 2.5% of our total shares outstanding during this fourth fiscal quarter, bringing our anticipated total share repurchases for fiscal 2023 to $600 million. We continue to believe our shares remain undervalued, and these repurchases reflect our confidence in the outlook for our business and long-term strategy. Before handing over to Mark, I want to review slide 6 and emphasize our continued focus on driving consistent, dependable, and sustainable organic growth. We are investing in our businesses, particularly in key end markets like healthcare, personal care beauty, and food service, which offer greater potential for differentiation and long-term growth.

We have grown these select markets over the past 10 years from 20% to now more than 30% of our portfolio, which has a compounded annual growth rate of more than 15% over the same period. Our emerging market presence is also expanding, supporting our commitment to global growth. Moreover, we are passionate about the innovation and sustainability utilized in our product design leadership to continuously develop products that meet our customer needs and expectations. Our efforts have resulted in significant growth in sustainable polymer purchases, and we're working towards our goal of achieving 30% circular material by 2030. These combined efforts, along with our ability to deliver continual cost improvements through our scale advantages and capabilities, instill confidence that we will consistently deliver solid earnings growth from our stable portfolio of businesses. Now I'll turn the call to Mark, who will review various financial results. Mark?

Mark Miles (CFO)

Thank you, Tom. I would like to refer everyone to slide 7 for our quarterly performance in our four operating segments. Our teams continue to execute well and focus on bringing value to our customers and generating cost productivity while driving long-term sustainable revenue and earnings growth. The segment review will focus on the year-over-year changes for Q3. Starting with our Consumer Packaging International Division, revenue was down 4%, primarily from softer demand, partially offset by improved product mix to higher-value products. EBITDA was up an impressive 6%, driven by our cost reduction efforts, along with the improved product mix by increasing our presence in healthcare packaging, pharmaceutical devices, and dispensing systems. We continue to recover cost inflation through pricing actions and cost reduction initiatives while driving revenue growth from our sustainability leadership.

Next, on slide 8, revenue in our Consumer Packaging North America was down 15%, primarily from lower selling prices due to the pass-through of lower resin costs in the United States, along with softer overall demand, mainly in our industrial markets. We again delivered strong results in our food service market, including double-digit volume growth for the last 4 consecutive quarters, as we continue to see conversion from other substrates to our clear polypropylene cup. We continue to add incremental cup capacity, including the startup of one of our manufacturing locations that has been repurposed with this technology, as demand for our innovative products continues to outpace our ability to add supply. EBITDA was lower by 8% from the softer market demand and the timing impact of increasing polypropylene costs in the United States, which is expected to be recovered in the fourth fiscal quarter.

The team continues to drive improved cost productivity from structural cost reductions and focus on delivering differentiated products in areas such as foodservice, closures, and dispensing systems. On slide 9, revenue in our Engineered Materials was down 19% due to the lower selling prices from the pass-through of lower resin costs in the United States and volume softness, primarily in European industrial markets, along with some customer destocking. Volumes were also impacted by our focused effort to mix up in certain categories like consumer and transportation films. Consequently, our sales in advantaged higher-value products has moved from around 25% of Engineered Materials portfolio in 2018 to now 45%. EBITDA in the quarter was modestly lower as the softer overall customer demand offset our continued and focused effort on improving sales mix to higher-value product categories and structural cost reduction initiatives.

On slide 10, revenue in our Health, Hygiene & Specialties division was down 17% due to lower selling prices from the pass-through of lower resin costs, along with a decline in volumes. The business continued to see ongoing inventory destocking, along with softer demand inside many of our specialty markets, such as filtration, building, and construction. As a positive takeaway, both disinfectant wipes in the US and adult cotton incontinence products in Latin America both saw nice growth in the quarter. EBITDA was down 23% for the quarter, which was in line with our expectation, as our improvement initiatives were offset with weaker demand in some of our higher value specialty markets.

As we look forward for the division, we expect to improve earnings sequentially as demand improves. On a year-over-year basis, as we have now lapsed the tough comparisons from COVID and related inventory adjustments in the market. Overall, for the company, through the first three fiscal quarters, our teams have delivered similar EBITDA by driving substantial cost savings, offsetting weaker market demand from inflation and destocking initiatives. As Tom mentioned earlier, given the easing of inflation and easier comparisons, we expect volumes across all four of our segments to sequentially improve when compared to the prior year quarter. As we've stated from the beginning of the year, we will continue to take proactive structural cost reduction actions to help offset softer demand here in fiscal 2023.

These cost-saving initiatives are expected to provide annualized cost savings of $140 million. We expect to realize $75 million of these savings in fiscal 2023, with the majority of the balance realized in fiscal 2024. Our fiscal 2023 guidance and assumptions are shown on slide 11. We are now targeting adjusted earnings per share of $7.30 for fiscal 2023. The updated estimate assumes operating EBITDA of $2.05 billion, as we expect cost reductions to offset softer volumes. Our fiscal Q4 assumes EBITDA of $540 million, or a $20 million increase over the fiscal Q3.

The two sequential key bridge items, which give us confidence in our Q4 EBITDA target, include a $10 million charge from a third-party warehouse fire in fiscal Q3, and the timing tailwind of lower polypropylene costs, which will benefit us in the fiscal Q4. We expect free cash flow to be $800 million, assuming cash flow from operations of $1.45 billion, less capital expenditures of $650 million. The increased level of capital spending from our prior guidance is due to the timing of payments, and we would expect fiscal 2024 capital spending to be less than $600 million. We are proud of the team's execution as we expect to achieve our free cash flow guidance.

Our teams have generated incremental working capital savings to offset additional capital investment and restructuring costs from our cost out actions. For the last four quarters through fiscal Q3, we generated substantial free cash flow of over $1 billion. Our cash flow, year in and year out, has been a dependable key strength and core value for our company. It provides us the opportunity to invest in our businesses to grow and become more efficient while returning capital to shareholders. As you can see on slide 12, our capital allocation strategy is return-based and includes continued investment in growth markets, share repurchases, debt repayment, and a growing quarterly cash dividend. In line with our strategy to reduce debt, we repaid a total of $200 million in June and July on our outstanding term loans.

In fiscal 2023, as we've stated before, we expect to return $700 million or more to shareholders via share repurchases and dividends, including further reducing our shares outstanding by 8% at current valuation levels. Given our strong, dependable cash flow and earnings, last quarter, we moved our long-term leverage range down to 2.5 to 3.5x, as we continue to focus on delivering long-term value for our shareholders. Based on our current view, we expect that we will be at approximately 3.7x at the end of this year and within our long-term range by the end of fiscal 2024. We believe we are well positioned for continued value creation through both our resilient business model and strategic portfolio management opportunities. This concludes my financial review, and I'll turn it back to Tom.

Thomas Salmon (Chairman and CEO)

As you just heard from Mark, our business model has proven to be exceptionally resilient, with a diverse range of consumer staple and industrial packaging solutions. We've achieved strong, dependable, and stable cash flows, allowing us the flexibility to drive robust returns for our valued shareholders. As demonstrated on slide 13, we've made remarkable progress in reducing our net debt by nearly $3 billion since mid-2019, with further plans to return over an anticipated $1.3 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in fiscal 2022, 2023. We take great pride in being a top 5 global tool maker and a top 5 recycler in Europe, which gives us unmatched scale advantages and differentiation capabilities compared to our competitors.

Our in-house design centers, along with our ability to serve local and regional customers and markets, reinforce our position as a leader in the industry. As you can see on slide 14, we remain committed to enhancing long-term value for all stakeholders by maintaining a stable and dependable portfolio. Our history of driving top-tier results across various key financial metrics, such as revenue, earnings, and free cash flow, highlights our consistent growth as a publicly traded company. Our annual adjusted EPS CAGR of 23% from 2015 to 2022, holds the leading position amongst our peer set and well above the average CAGR of 10%. Our strategic investment choices and focus on driving shareholder value are at the core of our priorities.

We've invested significantly in growth, targeting faster-growing markets and regions, and improving the mix of our product portfolio, as shown on slide 15. Also, by maintaining a lower leverage range and returning cash to shareholders, together with our recent inclusion into the S&P MidCap 400, we believe we'll continue to close the valuation gap, presenting an attractive investment opportunity. Moreover, we are deeply invested in innovation and sustainability, which provides us with a competitive advantage. We are invested in several markets and product categories that we expect to drive long-term organic growth and complement our ongoing efforts of building an increasingly resilient portfolio of products, including a few of those, which we've highlighted here on slide 16. The increased demand for sustainable packaging solutions aligns perfectly with our design capabilities in producing and sourcing recycled resins globally.

Our leadership in these areas position us for higher growth opportunities, supporting long-term value creation for our customers and shareholders. As you can see on Slide 17, our long-term targets emphasize the consistency and dependability of our model, with EBITDA growth of 4% to 6%, adjusted EPS growth of 7% to 12%, and total shareholder returns of 10% to 15%. We've consistently met or exceeded these targets over the past three years, and we expect to continue doing so in the future. Additionally, our newly initiated dividend is set to grow annually, and we aim to achieve our updated long-term leverage target by the end of fiscal 2024. In summary, we are focused on delivering sustainable growth while providing safety and service to our customers. With agility, strategic evaluation of our portfolio, and dedicated cost optimization efforts, we are determined to maximize shareholder value.

As you can see on Slide 18, our strong cash generation supports our ability to drive returns for shareholders through, first, a broader global portfolio. Second, we have an abundance of investment opportunities in high-value end markets such as healthcare, food service, and beauty, along with leadership position in sustainably led product offerings. Third, we have demonstrated historically we have an ongoing opportunity to consolidate a fragmented set of high-value end markets to drive significant revenue and cost synergies. Fourth, all while returning capital to shareholders and operating in a leverage range between 2.5 and 3.5x. Finally, we are extremely optimistic about our outlook for fiscal Q4, as we anticipate a positive impact from the easing of inflation and more favorable comparisons. We anticipate that volumes across all 4 segments will show sequential growth over the prior year quarter.

Additionally, our aggressive repurchases of nearly 3 million shares further demonstrate our unwavering confidence in the strength and potential of our businesses. We are looking forward to an improved quarter ahead. I want to close with how grateful we are for the hard work of our employees, and we remain dedicated to building on our progress, delivering greater value for all of our stakeholders. Thank you for your continued interest in Berry. With that, Mark and I are happy to address any questions you may have. Operator?

Operator (participant)

Thank you. At this time, we'll conduct the question-and-answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one, one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one, one again. One moment for our first question. Our first question comes from Joshua Spector with UBS. Your line is open.

Joshua Spector (Analyst)

Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to ask on the, the volume cadence here. Clearly, I mean, you're talking about some easing sequentially on a year-over-year basis, part of that on comps. It's just the last couple of quarters, I think two-year stack, you've been down about 8%, 9%. Is that the right way-

Thomas Salmon (Chairman and CEO)

Is that the right way?

Joshua Spector (Analyst)

how things are, are trending into the next quarter? Then any comments on what you're seeing on destocking within that mix versus underlying demand to help us think about trends into next year? Thanks.

Thomas Salmon (Chairman and CEO)

You know, we, we gave a couple of the reasons, you know, why we're optimistic relative to Q4 and the sequential improvement. Clearly, you know, as we've said, I believe on the last call, we believe that destocking and that phenomena will probably continue to exist through our fiscal Q4 and, and perhaps into our fiscal Q1. Nonetheless, that's gonna become a more normalized environment. Frankly, we're encouraged that, you know, from our brands that we serve, you're hearing a lot more conversation around increased promotional spending with an effort to ultimately draw more people into the stores, which should create more demand for those targeted products, as well as the impulse purchases that we'll benefit from. Those are a couple of the aspects of, of, of our confidence in that sequential improvement.

Frankly, you know, the consumers are facing now a more stable inflationary environment. There was a pretty significant run-up for a while. It's a little more stable at this point, and that, you know, coupled with, you know, the brands having a, a stronger objective now to, to drive organic volume growth, we should benefit from that.

Mark Miles (CFO)

Yeah, Josh, and on, on your volume, first part of your question, Q3 to Q4, we're, we're normally pretty similar. Our Q4 volumes are relatively similar to Q3, with the exception of Europe. You know, can have a touch weaker volume in Q4, typically, but overall for the company, pretty similar, Q3 and Q4 in most years.

Operator (participant)

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from George Staphos with Bank of America. Your line is open.

George Staphos (Analyst)

Hi, good morning, everybody. Thanks for the details. I joined the call a bit late, just given the conflicts here. I had 1 question. I hope it hasn't already come up. Apologies if it has. When we look at HH&S and the performance, certainly, you know, you've been going through a destock and kind of the other side of the hill after COVID, but we are now, you know, certainly on our math, seeing profits trending somewhat below where you had been prior to COVID. Tom and Mark, if you can talk about how business has been relative to your expectations, say, from a 2 years ago, in terms of how things would transpire. If you agree with the premise, what's been driving that performance in HH&S?

On the other side of the ledger, I, I think I heard you say that volumes are stabilizing, and you're hoping to see some improvement in the Q4. If you could confirm that, and which of your new products in particular are you most positive about relative to what will, you know, hopefully drive volume growth for, for fiscal, 2024? Thank you very much, and good luck in the quarter.

Thomas Salmon (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you, George. Relative to HH&S, clearly, the, the specialties business is probably one of the most unique aspects of the profitability inside HH&S. You know, specifically with the specialty items like house wraps, pool chemicals, filtration, and the likes, higher margin product that have been negatively impacted from a demand perspective. The team's doing a very good job as we continue to pivot more of the portfolio into the higher growth categories like adult incontinence, like premium fem care, as well as the wipes offering that not only, we're a leader in in North America, but also, developing a burgeoning growth position in Europe as well.

Mark Miles (CFO)

Yeah, re-relative to expectations, George, Q3 was, you know, right on top of what we'd expected for that business. As Tom mentioned, on a year-over-year basis, the headwinds are, again, as expected, but due to that specialties business being softer that, that Tom referenced.

George Staphos (Analyst)

Mark, if I-- and Tom, if I could just sort of pick at that for a second. Is the level of competitive activity worse than you would have anticipated a year or two ago in HH&S? Maybe it's just natural because you had that downturn cyclically in house wrap and the like, or, or no? How would you have us sort of think about it from your perspective? Then, my other question, you can answer it. Thank you.

Thomas Salmon (Chairman and CEO)

I, I would, I would simply sum it up that, you know, we continue to be a leader in this space, and, you know, we continue to, to serve the customers that are most valued, you know, in this category. As we continue to do that, it's gonna continue to create more opportunities for incremental growth opportunities for us. No doubt about it. You've, you've seen the, the prints from many major brands around the world. We take some comfort that, you know, our, our demand outlook is very consistent with what they're experiencing. As they improve, we're clearly going to improve alongside them.

Mark Miles (CFO)

Yeah, well, I mean, we have very strong products in that portfolio that have, you know, brands, and the quality and service we provide are very good. So we're comfortable that we're maintaining our share position, just that market is just weaker. Now, I will say, you know, there's a little bit of a lag, but if you look at some of the market data around permitting in the US and some of those things, you know, the outlook appears more favorable, which gives us some optimism in our outlook. Again, there will be a slight timing lag as to how that impacts our B&C business.

Thomas Salmon (Chairman and CEO)

I, I, I do expect to see increased promotions. You hear it marketed by many of the world's leading brands, to ultimately combat some of the organic growth dynamics that they've been facing. As those ultimately get launched and rolled out, it's gonna increase store traffic, which will, again, benefit us for sure.

George Staphos (Analyst)

Okay.

Thomas Salmon (Chairman and CEO)

Okay.

George Staphos (Analyst)

Thank you so much.

Operator (participant)

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Ghansham Panjabi with Baird. Your line is open.

Ghansham Panjabi (Senior Research Analyst)

Hey, guys. Good morning. I guess first off, you know, how are you thinking about the outlook for volumes between the US and Europe? Are the transfer declines very similar, and is one region further along with destocking than the other, just based on what you're seeing at this point? Separately, you know, it looks like you're gonna be spending about 5% of sales as it relates to CapEx. You know, just given the persistent volume declines in Q4 of 2021 year-over-year, is that the right level? Is that the right threshold for spending, as we think about fiscal year 2024 as well? Thanks.

Thomas Salmon (Chairman and CEO)

The, the volume dynamic between, you know, CPI as well as CPN, is, is very similar, you know, between the two product categories. I will say Europe's been, in, in more of a, a deeper or a recessionary cycle, more so than the United States, and for a longer period of time. You'll notice that, the majority of the, efforts that we've made relative to plant closures has taken place inside of our CPI portfolio. To make sure that we've got, you know, the right footprint ultimately to, to manage the business going forward. It's how we see the dynamic between the two, and I think, you know, it's really, these are typically very stable, product categories, specifically food and beverage.

Foodservice, you know, continues to, to lift both of those particular businesses. Yeah, we were very conscious and focused that the cost reduction efforts in CPI around, around plant closures was tied to the economic environment that they were facing.

Mark Miles (CFO)

Yeah, on the, on the CapEx question, looking at it on a percentage basis is a little tricky just because, as you know, resin can move around, our sales dollars and, and not the capital dollars. I think in terms of absolute dollar spending, you know, we continue to believe that $600 million of capital or so a year, will drive the results that we commit to, which is low single-digit volume growth and mid-single digit EBITDA growth. Next year might be a touch lighter than that, as just timing of some of the spending, is coming through in 2023 versus 2024. On a, on an outlook basis, I think $600 million or so of capital is, is the right number for us.

Ghansham Panjabi (Senior Research Analyst)

Perfect. Thank you.

Thomas Salmon (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Ghansham. George, I wanted, there was a third part of your question that we didn't get to, but, you know, relative to the categories that give us the greatest cause for optimism, clearly, you know, food service continues to be a very strong category for us. With the opening of our new facility in Bangalore, and it going through the regulatory approvals for startup, we're excited about the prospects for emerging market growth for that unit. The continued investments that we've been making in trigger sprayers, airless pumps, and frankly, in general, you know, sustainability led product categories, as well as our lower polypropylene, all give us, you know, great cause for optimism as we look forward to 2024. Next question, please.

Operator (participant)

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Arun Viswanathan (Analyst)

Great, thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to ask, I guess, about two things. First off, thinking about a bridge maybe for EBITDA as we look into fiscal 2024, looks like the volume impact was a -$44 million in this last quarter. Maybe is it, is it fair to assume that you could return maybe to low single digit growth in fiscal 2024, especially given easy comps, so maybe that would be a benefit of maybe $20 million a quarter? Then you'd have some of your cost reductions as well, you know, also giving another $80 million.

I, I don't know if that's, that's the right math, but, are we somewhere in the ballpark, maybe for thinking about, you know, mid, mid to high single digit EBITDA growth for next fiscal year based on low single digit volume growth? Thanks.

Mark Miles (CFO)

Yeah, I think that, the way you described it, I didn't quite follow all your numbers, Arun, but yeah, we're expecting the cost save projects to benefit fiscal 2024 by $55 million. I think, you know, volume, obviously, we're a short cycle business, but I think, you know, all the things that Tom referenced earlier, that give us some optimism remain true. You know, we've given targets in terms of our top line and EBITDA growth, which is low single digit, volume growth and mid-single digit EBITDA growth, and I would expect, you know, 2024 to be in line with that.

Thomas Salmon (Chairman and CEO)

One of the, you know, parallel points to the, the growth outlook that Mark mentioned is, you know, we're gonna be in a position in 2024 as we see growth in the general market environments improve, also, we're gonna benefit from, you know, having actually executed against 20 facilities that have been shut down and not having a need ultimately to add incremental CapEx to serve that business. That's very exciting for us going forward, that, you know, that optimized footprint, lower cost structure, ultimately is gonna benefit us on the bottom line as well.

Arun Viswanathan (Analyst)

Great. Thanks for that. Just as a quick follow-up on that note then, so the $800 million of free cash flow, would it grow just in line with EBITDA next year, or are there any other discrete items that could maybe push it, you know, above EBITDA growth, maybe in the $900 million or $1 billion range? Thanks.

Mark Miles (CFO)

Yeah, I mean, obviously, we'll have some, you know, we'll have some spending relative to the cost save program in 2024. You know, as we mentioned in our prepared comments, we've done a really nice job here in 2023 of delivering savings to offset those costs. We'll, you know, we'll see as we approach the year, but I, I can't think of any large items that would swing 2023 and 2024.

Arun Viswanathan (Analyst)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Philip Ng with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Philip Ng (Analyst)

Hey, guys. You know, Q4 guidance, Mark, I think, implies about 12% uptick in EPS sequentially. You called out a $10 million tailwind reversing, I guess, effectively from the warehouse cost headwind. Any color on how to think about the polypropylene tailwind sequentially? Then you've talked about demand being up sequentially. How has demand trended inter-quarter into July? Have you seen any, like, pickup? And what kind of sequential uptick are you assuming for volumes in the Q4?

Mark Miles (CFO)

Sure. Yeah, with respect to your first question, at the beginning of calendar 2023, US polypropylene costs increased pretty rapidly. Subsequent to that, you know, in the second calendar quarter, all of it kind of fell back out. It went up and down, and just the timing of the pass-through of that resulted in a headwind in Q3. It will benefit Q4, as our customer prices will reflect the calendar Q1 pricing. Our costs will start to benefit from the lowering that occurred in calendar Q2, and it's roughly, you know, $10 million is our estimate of the Q3 versus Q4 impact from that dynamic. With respect to volume, you know, we're not expecting a significant change in just underlying demand.

The volumes that we experienced in Q3 will be similar to what we experience in Q4, but the year-over-year change gets a little more favorable as a result of a lower comparison in Q4 2022.

Philip Ng (Analyst)

Okay, that's helpful. You're not assuming a big snapback, it's just easier comps. Have you seen any notable shift in inter-quarter trends?

Thomas Salmon (Chairman and CEO)

We don't give, you know, inter-quarter guidance, but suffice to say, we continue to be confident in the outlook on a sequential improvement in quarter four versus quarter three. Again, you know, the, the, the strong commitments from the brands relative to how they're looking at organic growth versus simply price is encouraging for our, you know, near-term and longer-term outlook that it should cause more foot traffic to be in stores where the brands are doing all possible to, to grow and show organic growth in those numbers versus just price. We'll benefit alongside that as that occurs.

Mark Miles (CFO)

I, I would add to that, I mean, you can, you can see it in our pricing, right? For now, we're, I think, three or four consecutive quarters, our prices are $200 million lower for the same SKUs. Our, our customers are paying less for the same product on a year-over-year basis. You know, I think to Tom's point, you know, history would tell you some of that money will get deployed into promotional activity and other things to, to drive demand.

Philip Ng (Analyst)

Okay. Appreciate the color, guys.

Operator (participant)

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Gabe Hajde (Senior Analyst)

Mark, good morning.

Thomas Salmon (Chairman and CEO)

Hey, Gabe.

Gabe Hajde (Senior Analyst)

I, I appreciate it's tough on a mic like this, but I'm just trying to maybe get a, a little better sense, Tom, for what you're telling us in terms of getting well within the 2.5 to 3.5 turns of leverage, thinking about divesting some, some non-core assets. Then on the other side, you kind of talked about potentially, you know, trying to consolidate what is a pretty fragmented market in some of your key focus areas. Is it, is it safe to infer that where you're deploying maybe growth capital or return capital would be the same places that you'd be looking to acquire assets? Just from a timing standpoint, it still sounds like by the end of the calendar year is what you're expecting for maybe some of the deletes that you're looking at?

Thomas Salmon (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, we were. Good morning, by the way. We, we clearly look at our portfolio as a tool to maximize shareholder value and deliver, you know, more consistent, predictable, and profitable growth. That has not changed. We said on the last call, we were very comfortable with the small bolt-on acquisition that we executed against, that the proceeds from those types of actions would more than offset the cost of that acquisition. We remain firmly committed that that, in fact, is the case.

The size of our portfolio is such that that provides a unique opportunity, a unique opportunity for us to continue to optimize portfolio, an opportunity to take proceeds from such actions at close, to apply those towards the right components of the business based on the need that we see, whether that's leverage reduction, whether that's organic growth, or whether that's a bolt-on acquisition, all while staying within that targeted range. We continue to believe we're in a really unique spot. We give the size of our portfolio. I continue to be encouraged with the pace of progress in terms of some of those things that we're considering exploring. You know, no, no different than, you know, the most recent acquisition is benefiting our Consumer Packaging North American business.

You know, that will be fully offset by, by one of those transactions at the latest by the end of the calendar year. We're very bullish, and it's a tool. Again, it's a tool to allow us to maximize shareholder value, that we think still has some legs to it, so we're looking forward to it. Does that help?

Gabe Hajde (Senior Analyst)

It does. Thank you, Tom. I guess, again, I know it's difficult, but, maybe we were expecting an announcement in terms of maybe your investor, any update there?

Thomas Salmon (Chairman and CEO)

... I, the, our board is fully engaged, you know, relative to the, the identification of a successful candidate, to take this seat. I'm very confident that, you know, between now and our, fiscal Q4 call, that successor will be named, and introduced to the broader market.

Gabe Hajde (Senior Analyst)

Understood. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Adam Samuelson (Analyst)

Yes, thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Thomas Salmon (Chairman and CEO)

Hi, Adam.

Adam Samuelson (Analyst)

Hi. Maybe just start, Tom, you talked about some of the kinda reasons for optimism and your more consumer-centric businesses. Can you maybe just comment on what you're seeing in your more industrial, non-consumer-oriented businesses in terms of activity levels? Is the destocking trend similar? Just any added color in that kind of part of the portfolio?

Thomas Salmon (Chairman and CEO)

Sure. I'll start with the destocking. Again, you know, we had made us to basically lap the impact of destocking, because at some point, you get to a normalized level of inventory that companies are going to keep. You know, fortunately, Berry is well-equipped, you know, to be as agile as needed with our customers, to provide just-in-time inventory and the like. I do expect that to normalize by the end of our fiscal Q4, at the latest, by the end of our fiscal Q1, to a more normalized industry or inventory level. The other piece relative to, you know, the industrial businesses, you know, I'll speak to housing specifically. I think we're at a very close to an inflection point in housing, at being quote, at the bottom.

You're not seeing a tremendous amount of people willing to walk away from very low interest rate mortgages as such. It's creating demand for more residential housing builds, and we'll clearly be a benefactor from that in areas like our house wraps business and parts of our tapes business as well. I think you'll see that begin to materialize over the next couple quarters, you know, between building permits being issued, ground being broken, and, and, you know, structures being erected. I think we're very close. I think, I think that is really a very positive sign, you know, for some of our businesses that have been negatively impacted by that.

Adam Samuelson (Analyst)

Okay, now that's, that's very helpful. Just coming back to this discussion on, on 2024 and return to, to growth. Is there some of the discrete plant investments that you've made, think of the Bangalore healthcare facility, the circular facility in, in the UK, come to mind, that are way more discrete growth projects that would be kinda additive to kinda underlying kinda market activity that would seem like you've got ample capacity to serve for, for the near term?

Thomas Salmon (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, I think, I think those are at the early stages, and I think only have room to go. We've made concentrated levels of organic growth investment around dispensing solutions. The facility in South Florida will open to serve foodservice in our fiscal Q1. And as Mark had said in some of his comments, demand is just exceptional there, where not only are we growing the business, low double digits, but we're also taking share from other substrates, and the demand continues to be wildly robust. The pharmaceutical excitement that we have around Bangalore and serving these emerging markets can benefit us not only from an organic perspective, but we also believe at some point, inorganically as well.

Again, all while staying within those targeted leverage ranges, certainly, healthcare and, you know, the introduction of our Leamington Spa site in Europe and our circular polymer solutions that we'll be introducing give great cause for optimism. I would clearly anticipate, as we look forward into 2024, that you'll see additional announcements of other facilities that can provide these circular materials done in conjunction with leading brands around the world to demonstrate how both between using innovative design coupled with sustainable materials it can be a strong organic growth vehicle for the company. We're an interesting business, and we've talked a lot about, you know, what we've done from a cost reduction perspective.

This company and its team members, we have a unique ability not only to innovate, but optimize at a parallel path at the same time. I think you've seen that from the actions that we've taken throughout the course of the year. We're not talking about things that are gonna benefit us in 25 and 26. We're taking action in areas that are gonna benefit us here now, in the current fiscal year and next year as well, and we'll continue to variabilize our costs, as well as make the appropriate organic investments to drive that more consistent, predictable, profitable growth. Again, where we can use our portfolio as a tool to do that and help maximize that value for our shareholders.

Adam Samuelson (Analyst)

Okay. I, I appreciate the, the color. I'll pass it on. Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. That concludes the question and answer session. At this time, I would like to turn it back to management for closing remarks.

Thomas Salmon (Chairman and CEO)

Well, first, yeah, I think I thank everybody for the time and interest, you know, in the company, but I, I wanna share something I think is, you know, a nuance for our company right now. When you think about the performance, you know, in a given quarter, I, I think it really demonstrates the resiliency of our portfolio, in the face of what some would argue are somewhat unprecedented market conditions and dynamics. I view it as a super, very solid positive for our full year results, both from an earnings and a cash perspective, given those, those dynamics.

When you couple that though, you know, with us being on target to be inside our leverage range comfortably in 2024, delivering on, you know, what was a substantial share repurchase program, optimizing our footprint, you know, for, you know, to be better suited to support organic growth in 2024 and beyond. As we just talked about, having an active program where we're evaluating our portfolio, you know, as a tool to maximize shareholder value, it's an incredibly exciting time for Berry, and I'm, I couldn't be prouder of this team, you know, putting out the, the results that they have year to date and what we expect to deliver for the full year and well into 2024 and beyond. Team is doing a fantastic job. We're grateful for your interest in this company. Thanks, everybody.

Operator (participant)

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may dis-