Brown-Forman - Earnings Call - Q4 2025

Executive Summary

• Q4 2025 revenue was $894M and diluted EPS was $0.31, both down 7% and 45% year over year respectively, reflecting the absence of prior-year divestiture gains; gross margin contracted to 57.3% and operating margin to 22.9%.
• Versus S&P Global consensus, Q4 revenue missed ($894M vs $965.4M*) and EPS missed ($0.31 vs $0.344*); for FY2025, EPS slightly beat ($1.84 vs $1.814*), while revenue missed ($3.98B vs $4.05B*).
• FY2026 outlook calls for low-single-digit declines in organic net sales and organic operating income; tax rate 21–23% and capex $125–$135M, highlighting macro headwinds and tariff risk.
• Strategic catalysts: cost restructuring expected to deliver $70–$80M annualized savings, evolution to owned distribution (Italy launched May 1) and U.S. distributor realignment across 13 markets (effective Aug 1, 2025).
• Management emphasized resilient core whiskey brands (Woodford +8% FY organic net sales; Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey +1% FY organic) amid tequila softness and FX pressures, supporting medium-term brand equity despite near-term topline/margin pressure.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Woodford Reserve was the largest driver of FY organic net sales growth (+8%), supported by volume and price/mix; JDTW grew +1% organically for FY2025, evidencing brand resilience.
• Operating expenses disciplined: advertising -6% organic and SG&A -5% organic for FY2025, helping offset margin headwinds.
• Strategic initiatives: Italy owned distribution launch (May 1, 2025) to deepen market collaboration and accelerate super-premium brand growth; U.S. distributor network evolution across 13 markets to position for future growth.

What Went Wrong

• Q4 2025 revenue -7% YoY to $894M and EPS -45% to $0.31, reflecting absence of prior-year Sonoma-Cutrer gain and lower gross margin; operating income down 45%.
• Tequila portfolio underperformed FY: el Jimador -11% organic and Herradura -10% organic net sales amid competitive U.S. dynamics and Mexico macro weakness.
• Gross margin contracted 150 bps in FY2025 to 58.9% due to higher input costs, unfavorable fixed cost absorption, FX, and non-cash impairment (Gin Mare $47M) taken in Q4.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to Brown-Forman Corporation Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in the listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you would need to press star one one on your telephone. You would then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Sue Perram, Vice President, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Sue Perram (VP and Director of Investor Relations)

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I would like to thank each of you for joining us today for Brown-Forman's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Call. Joining me today are Lawson Whiting, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Leanne Cunningham, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. This morning's conference call contains forward-looking statements based on our current expectations. Numerous risks and uncertainties may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated or projected in these statements. Many of the factors that will determine future results are beyond the company's ability to control or predict. You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, and, except as required by law, the company undertakes no obligation to update any of these statements, whether due to new information, future events, or otherwise.

This morning, we issued a press release containing our results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025, in addition to posting presentation materials that Lawson and Leanne will walk through momentarily. Both the release and the presentation can be found on our website under the section titled Investors, Events, and Presentations. In the press release, we have listed a number of the risk factors you should consider in conjunction with our forward-looking statements. Other significant risk factors are described in our Form 10-K and Form 10-Q reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. During this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. These measures are reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, and the reasons management believes they provide useful information to investors regarding the company's financial condition and results of operations are contained in the press release and investor presentation.

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Lawson.

Lawson Whiting (President and CEO)

Thank you, Sue, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we share our Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 results. Throughout fiscal 2025, Brown-Forman navigated the extremely challenging and uncertain operating environment by remaining focused on the long term, leveraging our strengths, and executing our business strategies with a focus on improving our route to consumer in several markets, evolving our workforce to simplify and streamline our organization, allowing us to become more agile and efficient, and growing our portfolio of brands through sponsorships, media campaigns, and innovation. That said, the fiscal year unfolded largely as we expected. This reflects the continued path to normalization following the significant multi-year disruption related to our supply chain, two-plus years of exceptionally high demand, and the impact of higher inflation and interest rates on the consumer and trade over the last two years.

For context, in Fiscal 2025, our shipments closely matched our depletions for the first time in six years. Our reported net sales decreased 5% in Fiscal 2025, while organic net sales grew 1% after adjusting for the divestitures of Finlandia and Sonoma Guitreur in the prior fiscal year, the negative effect of foreign exchange, and the business model change for Jack Daniel's Country Cocktails. Putting our Fiscal 2025 results into the longer-term view, our five-year organic net sales compound annual growth rate was 6%, reflective of our historic trends. Now, let me share some perspectives on the Fiscal 2025 results through our integrated business strategy. I'll start with the performance of our portfolio and provide a few updates on our people, then Leanne will share more about our geographic performance and our investments, along with other financial highlights and our Fiscal 2026 outlook.

From a brand perspective, Woodford Reserve was the largest driver of organic net sales growth, and if you look at the Nielsen takeaway trends for the top 20 spirits brands by value for the 52 weeks ending in April, Woodford Reserve was one of only three brands growing. This reflects the strength of Woodford Reserve, but also the exceptionally challenging environment our industry is navigating right now. An increase in used barrel sales was the second largest contributor to organic net sales in Fiscal 2025, followed by growth from New Mix and Jack Daniel's Tennessee whiskey. Woodford Reserve delivered organic net sales growth of 8%, driven by higher volume as well as positive price mix, with Woodford Reserve Distiller's Select once again leading the growth.

Woodford Reserve is also being discovered internationally with very strong performance in markets such as Japan and Türkiye as we continue to position this brand for global growth. Last month, the Kentucky Derby was held in our hometown of Louisville, and Woodford Reserve was once again the presenting sponsor. The 151st Run for the Roses was the most-watched Kentucky Derby since 1989, with over 22 million household viewers generating more than 4 billion earned media impressions for the brand. This event creates numerous opportunities for collaborations across spirits, sports, and fashion, enabling Woodford Reserve to engage with current consumers and make new fans of the brand. Innovation and premiumization also contributed to the brand's growth, with the success of Woodford Reserve's largest product launch, Double Double Oaked, along with continued double-digit growth of Woodford Reserve Double Oaked.

These craft and luxury expressions reflect our strategic approach to innovation, which enable us to capitalize on growth opportunities in the US whiskey category. New Mix continued its impressive growth in Fiscal 2025, leveraging innovation to capitalize on consumer trends of flavor and convenience. The brand had another year of double-digit organic net sales growth, surpassing 11 million nine-liter cases and continuing to gain market share in Mexico. In addition, I'm excited to share that New Mix will launch two flavors, New Mix Paloma and New Mix Cantarito RTD in key U.S. states later this summer. With 58% of the US Hispanic population originating from Mexico, this launch offers consumers the opportunity to purchase a brand that is currently only available in Mexico and reflects the authenticity, tradition, and culinary richness of the country. In Fiscal 2025, organic net sales for Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey increased 1%.

As we have shared throughout this year, we're continuing to engage a new generation of legal drinking-age consumers while remaining intently focused on retaining our core consumers through our McLaren, Formula One, and music sponsorships, an evolved on-premise strategy, and a new media campaign. Jack's connection to Formula One and music are on full display in Jack's Garage, which is a bold brand platform that unites race and whiskey fans through the power of music. The momentum of this experience continues to build, with the most recent Jack's Garage in Miami resulting in more social impressions than all of the U.S. Jack's GARAGE events held in calendar 2024 combined. Also raising awareness, the first members of the Jack Pack, a team of Jack Daniel's brand ambassadors, are now in place in key cities such as New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles.

This team is focused on growing our influence in the on-premise channel through relationship building, targeted education, and brand advocacy. I'm also proud to share that our new global campaign for Jack Daniel's, entitled "That's What Makes Jack Jack," launched a few weeks ago in markets around the world. This campaign is bold, iconic, and unmistakably Jack. It emphasizes the enduring craftsmanship and authenticity that distinguishes Jack Daniel's from all other whiskeys, stemming from our roots in Lynchburg, Tennessee, our signature charcoal mellowing process, and the unwavering standards set by Mr. Jack himself. Reinforcing Jack Daniel's status as a renowned and iconic brand, we believe the creative work will strengthen our position as a symbol of independence for current consumers and a new generation.

Innovation also elevates Jack Daniel's relevance to existing consumers while extending the brand's appeal to new consumers, in occasions as evidenced by the growth and success of the launches of Jack Daniel's Tennessee Honey in 2011, Tennessee Fire in 2014, and Jack Daniel's Tennessee Apple in 2019. Today, I'm excited to announce the launch of Jack Daniel's Tennessee Blackberry later this summer. Blackberry is a globally recognized, well-established flavor trend and naturally complements the flavor of Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey. In consumer testing, Jack Daniel's Tennessee Blackberry had high consumer appeal, resonating with a broad audience. We've been strategic and purposeful with our innovation, using consumer insights and trends to give consumers the opportunity to explore and discover within the Jack Daniel's family. I look forward to sharing more about the launch of this exciting new innovation in the months ahead.

Before moving to our people, I'll share some comments on a few other brands that had an impact on the company's top-line performance. Diplomático delivered very strong double-digit organic net sales growth led by France and Germany, along with the travel retail channel. Within the super premium and above price tier, Diplomático is the world's third-largest rum by value globally, sold in over 100 countries, and is known for its rich heritage and rum-making tradition. In Fiscal 2025, we benefited from having a full year of growth from this brand, and we continue to expect Diplomático to be a meaningful growth contributor over the long term. Organic net sales for Gin Mare grew 1%, with growth from Spain, Germany, and France, partially offset by a decline in Italy, the brand's largest market, as we transitioned to our own distribution.

In the fourth quarter, we recognized a $47 million non-cash impairment charge for the Gin Mare brand name and reduced Gin Mare's contingent consideration liability by $43 million. The impairment and liability reduction reflect a decline in our financial forecast assumptions due to the more challenging macroeconomic environment in Europe, where the brand has a strong presence. While the brand had a slower start than we'd planned, we continue to expect that Gin Mare will contribute long-term growth to our portfolio of brands. Korbel and our tequila brands partially offset our organic net sales growth in Fiscal 2025. As we shared a few weeks ago, Brown-Forman and Korbel Champagne sellers will end our sales, marketing, and distribution relationship at the end of the month.

We appreciate the years of partnership with Korbel, as well as the Brown-Forman employees who played a role in building Korbel into the respected and well-loved brand it is today. To our tequila portfolio, organic net sales for El Jimador and Herradura declined double digits, as the environment for the tequila category in the U.S. remained competitive and Mexico's economy continued to face a challenging macro environment, though their performance improves sequentially each quarter. We believe consumers desire brands with heritage, authenticity, and craftsmanship, so we remain focused on sharing and celebrating Herradura's 155-year history, including its heritage as the world's first Reposado, which is the fastest-growing expression within the tequila category. We also continue to innovate with the successful launch of Herradura Cristalino in Mexico, which builds upon the accelerating Cristalino trend. El Jimador has also launched a Cristalino expression in the U.S.

El Jimador Cristalino is priced above the parent brand and is the first expression within the family of brands to be bottled in its new premium packaging, further supporting the brand's premiumization journey. IWSR projects the tequila category will reach almost $20 billion in retail value in the next five years, with almost half the growth coming from outside the U.S. and Mexico. We continue to ensure that El Jimador and Herradura are well-positioned to capitalize on the growth. Before turning the call over to Leanne, I want to take a moment to provide an update on our people. In Fiscal 2025, we announced and implemented a number of strategic initiatives, which included a workforce reduction and Cooperage closing. Collectively, these initiatives should deliver approximately $70 million-$80 million in annualized savings.

As a result, we incurred $63 million in aggregate charges, including the separate early retirement benefit offered to qualifying U.S. employees. Throughout our history, Brown-Forman has continually evolved and adapted over the decades, and we believe these strategic initiatives will ensure the company continues to endure for generations to come. I want to thank all of our employees for their resilience, as well as their continued commitment to our brands, our business, and most importantly, to each other. In summary, Fiscal 2025 was a year unlike any other that I've seen in the past three decades. I'm often reminded that this great company has existed for more than a century and a half and has faced many uncertainties and unknowns. During these times, we remain focused on the long term and leverage our greatest strengths, our people, and our brands.

This has enabled us to deliver positive organic net sales and operating income growth in Fiscal 2025, which we believe is at the top of our industry. As Leanne will share, we're entering Fiscal 2026 with a healthy mix of realism and optimism as we anticipate that the year ahead will continue to be challenging. Despite headwinds, we believe that we have tremendous opportunities for long-term growth, and while we cannot control the external environment, we will focus on what is within our control and on the strategic initiatives that will unlock growth for our business, our brands, and our people. With that, I'll turn the call over to Leanne, and she'll provide more details on our Fiscal 2025 results.

Leanne Cunningham (EVP and CFO)

Thank you, Lawson. Good morning, everyone.

As Lawson mentioned, I will provide additional details on the other two pillars of our corporate strategy, geographies and investment, along with other financial highlights and our Fiscal 2026 outlook. From a geographic perspective, we shared with you previously that we anticipated a return to growth for organic net sales and organic operating income in Fiscal 2025, driven by gains in international markets, along with the benefit of normalizing distributor inventory trends on a year-over-year basis. Today, the results we are sharing with you reflect those expectations. Our emerging international markets continue to lead our growth and collectively delivered a 9% organic net sales increase in Fiscal 2025. This growth was led by continued strong double-digit growth in Türkiye and Brazil, led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey.

The sustained growth of the premium whiskey category positively impacted our business in these markets, along with Brazil, which benefited from our geographic expansion strategy and the launch of an additional package size for Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey. In Mexico, organic net sales grew 4%, despite the challenging economic environment. While discretionary spending has been negatively impacted and consumers are trading down, our RTDs and the Jack Daniel's family of brands are outperforming competitors and gaining market share. As Lawson mentioned, New Mix continued to deliver double-digit organic net sales growth driven by increased distribution, as well as a steady pricing and promotional strategy. Jack Daniel's RTDs, which include Jack and Coke, outperformed the RTD category and delivered high single-digit organic net sales growth. As I mentioned last quarter, we are committed to the development and growth of our portfolio of brands in Mexico and further leveraged our own distribution capabilities.

In Fiscal 2025, we began the distribution of brands within the William Grant & Sons portfolio, including Glenfiddich, Hendrick's, Balvenie, and Monkey Shoulder. This distribution opportunity not only provided incremental organic net sales, we also believe this complementary portfolio provides us additional strength to achieve greater development of the combined portfolio, particularly in the on-trade and the super premium segment. Organic net sales in the travel retail channel declined by 5% in Fiscal 2025. Challenging macroeconomics in many markets in Asia more than offset the introduction of new brands and growth in global accounts. Growth of Diplomático Rum and Woodford Reserve, led by the launch of Double Double Oak, were more than offset by the decline of our super premium American whiskeys, such as our exclusive global travel retail offerings, Jack Daniel's Bottled in Bond and Jack Daniel's American Single Malt, which compared against its launch in Fiscal 2024.

Our developed international markets collectively delivered an organic net sales decline of 3% in Fiscal 2025, as growth in Japan was more than offset by declines in Italy, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. In Japan, organic net sales growth was driven by our route to consumer change to own distribution on April 1st, 2024. The transition to own distribution enabled us to execute our pricing strategy and provided more clarity on customer and consumer performance. Similar to Mexico, we are also leveraging our distribution capabilities with the distribution of the William Grant & Sons portfolio of brands such as Glenfiddich, Monkey Shoulder, Grant, and Hendrick's. By bringing together our iconic spirits portfolio, we are scaling our business in Japan and reinforcing our position with local customers, which further strengthens our position and underscores our commitment to long-term growth and innovation in the third-largest whiskey market in the world.

We are excited that we launched our own distribution in Italy on May 1, 2025, signifying our dedication to unlocking the full potential of the dynamic Italian spirits market. While organic net sales declined as we prepared for the transition to our own distribution, takeaway trends improved, and we are gaining market share. We believe owning our distribution will enable us to deepen our collaboration with our trade partners, accelerate growth for key super premium brands like Diplomatico Rum and Gin Mare, and further strengthen the presence of our iconic American whiskey portfolio led by the Jack Daniel's family of brands. In South Korea, the premium whiskey category continued to grow, leading to an increase in competitive activity, while Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey faced a difficult comparison, and Jack Daniel's Tennessee Apple compared against its launch in the prior year period.

Consumer confidence in the United Kingdom was negatively impacted by the macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly related to tariffs, resulting in a 6% decline in organic net sales. Double-digit organic net sales growth of Diplomático and Gentleman Jack was more than offset by the decline of Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, although the brand grew in value and gained share in the off-premise takeaway trends. Turning to the United States, organic net sales decreased 2% with growth from Woodford Reserve, Old Forester, and Jack Daniel's RTDs, more than offset by declines from Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey and Korbel, California Champagne. From a takeaway perspective, three-month rolling value trends for total distilled spirits are down approximately 3%, reflecting the continued macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties negatively impacting consumer confidence and spending.

The slowdown is widespread across categories and price tiers, yet the higher price tiers are continuing to gain market share, particularly in the $40 and above tier within the U.S. whiskey category. Lawson highlighted the growth drivers of Woodford Reserve, so I will share a few comments on Old Forester and the Jack Daniel's RTDs, along with Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey and Korbel. Despite the challenging macroeconomic conditions, our founding brand, Old Forester, continues to resonate with consumers with high-quality and great-tasting bourbon and 155 years of history and storytelling. Old Forester delivered high single-digit organic net sales growth led by strong performance of the super premium expressions, particularly our single-barrel selection offering, which is bottled at barrel strength. Jack Daniel's RTD delivered double-digit organic net sales growth in Fiscal 2025, led by the growth of Jack and Coke and Jack and Coke Zero.

Flavor and pack innovation are important in the RTD category. To provide consumers with the flavor and pack innovations they desire, the limited-time offering of Jack & Coke Cherry and the Jack& Coke Variety Pack, featuring Jack & Coke, Jack & Coke Cherry, and Jack & Coke Vanilla, was launched in March, in time for the seasonally stronger spring and summer months and is off to a good start. While trends in the second half were stronger than the first half, organic net sales declined for Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey. As Lawson mentioned, we have taken action and are continuing to engage with current and new consumers through sponsorships, on-premise engagement, our new media campaign, and innovation to accelerate our trends. We also continue to make purposeful efforts to highlight our whiskey-making craftsmanship and credentials through innovation and specialty launches.

The latest release in the age series, Jack Daniel's 14-year-old Tennessee Whiskey, joined Jack Daniel's 10-year-old and 12-year-old Tennessee Whiskey in Fiscal 2025. 14-year is the oldest age-stated whiskey from the Jack Daniel's distillery in over a century and sold out at the Jack Daniel's White Rabbit Bottle Shop in less than three hours. The success of these products created a halo for the parent brand, with the launch generating 720 million earned media impressions benefiting the entire Jack Daniel's family of brands. Finally, Corbel organic net sales declined in Fiscal 2025 in a difficult environment as the majority of the brands in the sparkling category experienced decreased sales. Turning to the distributor inventory levels in the U.S., the environment remains unchanged, with distributors continuing to target the low end of their normal range.

As you may recall, in our last earnings call, we shared the news of our distributor transition in California and that it was part of a broader review of our route to market across the U.S. to ensure our brands are well-positioned to win in the highly competitive marketplace. We have now completed our review, and we announced last week that we have named new distributors for 13 additional markets, a transition that will involve seven new distributor partners beginning August 1st, 2025. This is the company's first significant change to our U..S. route-to-consumer landscape in more than 60 years. These carefully considered decisions underscore our enduring commitment to ensure our brands have the dedication, focus, investment, and route-to-market capabilities needed to succeed in the increasingly dynamic U.S. beverage alcohol industry.

Just as one example, as a result of these changes, we will gain incremental dedicated headcount focused on our brands. While these transitions will likely cause some disruption and volatility in the first half of this fiscal year, we believe they will unlock future growth. These decisions were taken with great thought and care, and we believe they will bring tremendous opportunity for growth in the years and decades to come. We would like to recognize and thank all of our distributors, whose dedication and expertise over the years have been foundational to establishing Brown-Forman's strong presence across the U.S. Their dedication and hard work have been instrumental in building the strong foundation upon which this next chapter of growth will be built. Moving on to the rest of the P&L, in Fiscal 2025, our reported and organic gross profit decreased 7% and 2% respectively.

This resulted in 150 basis points of gross margin contraction to 58.9%. We continued to benefit from favorable price mix, the Jack Daniel's Country Cocktails business model change, and the positive impact from our portfolio evolution, which had been obscured by the transition services agreements related to Finlandia and Sonoma-Cutrer. These benefits were more than offset by higher costs and the negative impact of foreign exchange. As we shared in our outlook, we expected higher costs in the fiscal year due to the impact of inflation on our input costs and lower production levels as we work to return our finished goods inventories to more normal levels.

Operating expenses in Fiscal 2025 were lower compared to Fiscal 2024, largely due to a 6% decrease in organic advertising expense, particularly for Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey and Jack Daniel's Tennessee Apple, as well as the comparison against the launch of the Jack Daniel's & Coke RTD in the United States in the year-ago period. This largely reflects our advertising philosophy of aligning brand investment with depletion-based top-line trends and a 5% decrease in organic SG&A investment led by lower compensation and benefits expense. In total, including the restructuring and other charges that Lawson shared, reported operating income decreased 22%, largely driven by the divestitures of Finlandia and Sonoma-Cutrer in the prior year period. Organic operating income grew 3% in Fiscal 2025.

In addition, we received cash of $350 million in exchange for our 21.4% ownership interest in Duckhorn and recognized a $78 million gain on the sale of our investment in Duckhorn. In summary, the above results collectively led to a 14% diluted earnings per share decrease to $1.84. Before moving to our Fiscal 2026 outlook, I will share a few comments about our Fiscal 2025 capital deployment actions. Our capital deployment philosophy balances ongoing investment in the business, including organic investments and acquisitions, alongside shareholder returns such as regular dividends, share repurchases, and special dividends. We approach capital allocation decisions with the core objective of sustainable long-term value creation. An important aspect of this philosophy is to maintain flexibility and the strength of our balance sheet. In Fiscal 2025, we continue to maintain our strong financial position.

We increased our quarterly dividend for calendar year 2025 and paid quarterly dividends totaling $420 million to stockholders in the fiscal year. We also repaid $300 million of long-term notes at the maturity date of April 15, 2025. Now turning to our Fiscal 2026 outlook, we believe the operating environment will remain volatile and visibility low due to geopolitical uncertainties and global macroeconomic conditions, particularly with regard to the tariff environment. This environment will create sustained levels of consumer uncertainty, which we believe will lead to another year of below historical total distilled spirits trends. We continue to expect that the behavior of the consumer and the level of trade inventories will not change meaningfully during the 2026 fiscal year.

We believe that the strength of our portfolio, the benefits of our route-to-consumer transitions, and our evolved workforce structure, as well as strategic innovation, will help us to navigate the short-term cyclical disruptions. From a geographic perspective, we have now moved beyond the unusual comparisons of the past several years and expect the depletion-based trends in the U.S. and developed international markets to remain similar to Fiscal 2025, with the exception of Canada, where American spirit products largely remain off the shelf, partially offset by continued growth in our emerging markets. In addition, while we are working towards a smooth transition, we do expect some level of phasing disruption in the U.S. as we move to new distributors. Another cyclical driver of our Fiscal 2026 outlook is the year-over-year change in our used barrel sales, which was a key contributor to our Fiscal 2025 growth.

We expect our used barrel sales will return to levels that are more typical in challenging and uncertain operating environments for our industry, which is approximately more than half of the Fiscal 2025 level, making it a significant year-over-year headwind. We will continue to execute our long-term pricing strategy and expect a benefit from our revenue growth management activities and strategic innovation while anticipating product mix headwinds due to faster growth of our RTD portfolio and agency brands. Based on the currently known factors, we expect a low single-digit decline in organic net sales. In this challenging environment, we will carefully manage our cost and operating expenses. Our outlook for organic operating expenses continues to reflect investment behind our brands, utilizing our long-term brand expense philosophy. Due to the strategic initiatives implemented in Fiscal 2025, we expect a reduction in SG&A related to our recently announced strategic workforce initiatives.

Based off the above, we forecast organic operating income to decline in the low single-digit range. Our organic net sales and organic operating income outlook ranges are based on numerous scenarios, with the greatest influence from weaker to stronger consumer demand in key markets such as the U.S., changes in distributor inventory levels, and currently known tariffs. We will continue to monitor, adjust, and update if conditions or trends evolve. We expect our estimated capital expenditure outlook to be in the range of $125 million-$135 million. We believe our Fiscal 2026 effective tax rate will be in the range of approximately 21%-23%. In summary, we delivered organic net sales and organic operating income growth in an uncertain and volatile operating environment in Fiscal 2025, largely in line with our expectations.

Despite the challenging short-term conditions, we remain focused on building our business for the long term while navigating the current environment at pace by strengthening our portfolio brands for the long term and introducing strategic innovation, benefiting from our streamlined and simplified workforce structure, which will increase our agility in responding to this dynamic operating environment and taking greater control of our brands in international markets through own distribution, as recently demonstrated in Japan and Italy, while ensuring in our largest and home market, the United States, that our brands are well-positioned to win with highly focused and engaged partners in an increasingly competitive environment. We anticipate these strategic initiatives will have short-term impacts on our business as we transition to new partners and ways of working, yet we believe they will unlock future growth and continue to build Brown-Forman and our brands for decades and generations to come.

This concludes our prepared remarks. Please open the line for questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. The first question is going to come from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Bryan Spillane (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Hey, terrific. Thanks, operator. Good morning. Good morning, everyone. Hey, Lawson, just stepping back, and I appreciate the commentary about just how volatile and difficult, I guess, the consumer environment is. One thing we're trying to square here is how it's not uniform across all other consumer categories.

Lawson Whiting (President and CEO)

If we look at, I don't know, lodging, gaming, leisure, I mean, there's a lot of other consumer categories that when we go through the transcripts or we listen to companies describe the consumer, it's kind of normal, if not even a little bit better than normal. Yet, if I take the commentary today, you would think we were in a recession, right? Can you just kind of, A, is that your observation as you're kind of looking at the consumer and trying to understand what's happening specifically to Brown-Forman and to spirits? I don't know, any insight you can give us to help square that circle? I think, right, part of the reason why the stock is kind of erased over 10 years' worth of appreciation is simply because I think people are seeing it more structural than cyclical.

Bryan Spillane (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Any insight there would be helpful. Thank you.

Lawson Whiting (President and CEO)

Yeah, Brian, that's a good question. A difficult one. I mean, look, there are certainly a lot of consumer categories that are very weak. You're right. You cited a few that have done better than others. I know some big consumer products companies the last couple of days have released earnings, and they've gotten hammered with weaker consumer demand. There's certainly an element to that in a lot of what we've been saying. The whole structural versus cyclical argument, which we've been talking about for six quarters now, I think, something like that. I don't think there's a lot of newness to necessarily add to that conversation. I've seen more and more people, it's the same big three, the GLP-1s, the cannabis, and Gen Z.

We have been saying that for a year and a half now. I know on the sell side that the world seems to be a little bit split on the extent of the pressure that it is putting on our category. We would be naive if we did not say that there is not some pressure coming from those. I still would argue that it is the consumer and their wallet just does not have as much money in it. You are right. They are spending money on things like vacations and lodging, as you said, and other things like that. When it trickles down and they go to the grocery store, I think in some cases, spirits has fallen out of the basket a little bit. That is not obviously great. On the tailwind side of things, there are some things that are doing well.

Spirits continues to take share from beer and wine. That dynamic has not changed. Premiumization is not at the same rate it was, but it is kind of stagnant a little bit. I think that is good news for the most part. I think the consumers have not traded down necessarily. Our portfolio stays up much more on the premium side of things. I do not think there is a lot of new news that I can add to that conversation other than that we continue to pull the levers that we can pull, and you are seeing a bit of a global slowdown. The other thing, which I did not mention on the structural cyclical thing, that we have not talked about in a little while.

I do think when we look at Europe compared to the United States, Europe, although some green shoots may be in some big markets over there, has largely been seeing trends that are really the same as the United States, yet they do not have the cannabis issue. The GLP ones are not nearly as big. Healthy lifestyles, the other one or Gen Z, I think anecdotally everybody is seeing that out there and everybody is commenting on that. The factors that are affecting the world, really, to me, still sound a whole lot more cyclical than they do structural. That was a long answer.

Bryan Spillane (Managing Director of Equity Research)

All right. Thanks, Lawson. If we learn more, I will share with you. It is, we are perplexed by it. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Thanks, guys. I will pass. Okay. Thanks, Bryan.

Operator (participant)

Our next question will come from Nadine Sarwat with Bernstein.

Nadine Sarwat (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Your line is open. Thank you for taking my question. I have two, one on the guidance and one longer term. First one on the guidance, can you flesh out a little bit what's included in that top-line guidance for Fiscal 2026, both in terms of distributor inventories and/or underlying consumer demand? Are you assuming some improvements in the back half or simply more of the same? Similarly, on the profit guide, just clarifying what does that imply? Tariffs, is that status quo? Are you baking in any form of tariff assumption in there? That's the sort of tariff question. The longer-term question is your Fiscal 2026 guidance is now obviously quite far off the medium-term growth algorithm that you've communicated at your last investor day.

I think if we reflect on what's going on with the stock today, that's probably a big portion of that is that growth being, at least for the moment, pushed into the future. For those who are listening in who are concerned about that and reaching that medium-term growth algorithm that you communicated previously, has that algo changed? How are you thinking of the potential for the business to grow in the long term? Thank you.

Leanne Cunningham (EVP and CFO)

Nadine, thanks for your questions. I'll start with guidance and I'll turn it over to Lawson for our longer-term algorithm. Kind of stepping back a bit as we think about F25, largely in line with our expectations, we had sequential improvement through each of the first three quarters. In the fourth quarter, we had planned for that trend to continue.

That is where we got into more geopolitical volatility around the tariff environment. We saw the drop in consumer confidence. That is on top of that kind of stretched consumer we have been talking about for several quarters. When we think about our fourth quarter and then how that leads into Fiscal 2026, that impacted the U.S. and a lot of our key developed markets, particularly Europe. For our performance in the fourth quarter, it is largely in line with the softening trends of TDS. That is how we enter our Fiscal 2026. From an environment perspective, we do think it is going to remain volatile and the visibility is going to continue to be low around the tariff environment. That is a big piece of that.

We believe that through all of that continued kind of uncertainty, the consumer is going to remain at that sustained level that it is now. We are just really thinking about the behavior of the consumer and the level of trade inventories as we are thinking about the environment that we will be operating in in Fiscal 2026 is kind of largely the same as we entered into this fiscal year. We have a lot going on, as we talked about, as it relates to our outlook because, again, during Lawson's prepared remarks, we are really investing in strengthening the portfolio of the brands. He mentioned what those were. We are introducing strategic innovation of Jack Daniel's Tennessee Blackberry, which we think is going to resonate well with consumers worldwide.

We're going to continue to benefit from our recent route to consumers with Japan and Italy, and then also our streamlined organization, which can be highly agile in this environment. We talked about too on our call for us, one of the we expect kind of mostly developed markets to remain the same. For American products off the shelf in Canada, and that being about a point of our top-line growth for F2024 and F2025, we're continuing to assume that our products largely remain off the shelf in Canada and that our growth is going to continue to come from emerging markets again for F2026. To your comment on tariffs, as we kind of said in our last call, we know it's highly volatile. None of us can predict what's going on. What we have included in our guide is what we do know as of this date.

Largely, that's coming through as the indirect impact from Canada, but then also the direct impact on some of our cost of goods. That's built into our guide. We talked about the disruption that we do expect. For 14 distributor transitions in key markets in the United States, we are all working hard to make sure that goes seamlessly. With that number of changes, we've just got to plan for some level of disruption. One thing I'd really like to touch on a bit more that's in that guide is our used barrels. We know that there's been an increasing global demand for whiskey over the last number of years, and that's created strong demand for our once-used American White Oak barrels.

If you kind of look back over the last 15 years, in a challenging operating environment such as 2010 with the economic recession and with the global pandemic, our used barrel sales typically come step down during environments like that, and then in the following years, kind of return to more normal buying patterns. Being in the environment that we're in as an industry, we would expect in F26 to step down more than half. Just to help you all a bit, in F24 10K, we said that our branded and non-bulk was about $87 million. In our press release, we said for F25 on schedule B, it grew 18%. We have just shared with you that in our guide, we think that's more than half.

Now, another thing to take into consideration, and it's to your point on leverage, the used barrels have a gross margin well above the company average. As we see this short-term cyclical kind of softening of demand for the used barrels, as it flows down through the P&L, it just has a greater impact, an outsized impact on our operating income. With that, I'll turn it over to Lawson for the make it for the

Lawson Whiting (President and CEO)

long-term. The growth algorithm. Just to remind everyone sort of what that was or what we said at our last investor conference was sort of mid-single-digit growth in the United States, rolling around the TDS number, which historically had been in that 4-5 range. A little bit higher on developed international and a little bit better than that on emerging markets.

When we get to there, that sort of makes all the math work. And we had literally achieved that for the most part over the last 20, 30 years kind of time frame. Obviously, the last few years have been a whole lot more volatile than that. Having said that, when we talked about that kind of algorithm, if you remember, if you go back two years ago, TDS in the U.S. was growing 5% or 6% even two years ago. Long-term, we have always said kind of a 4%-5% grower market. Right now, it is declining at 4%-5%. That algorithm does not work when the market is declining at that kind of rate.

When we're going to return to our old growth algorithm, I do think it has a lot to do with not only the U.S., but in Europe, starting to see some improved industry trends. I mean, I think that's true across the whole industry. I mean, we're obviously not the only ones that are not delivering against that long-term algorithm. If you're a believer in the cyclical nature of so many of the problems here, it's tough to predict when that's going to come back, but it will. Look, the fourth quarter had some weakness in it a little bit. TDS weakened a point or two more. That contributed to sort of a little bit of the surprise, I think, that everybody's seeing right now. We still feel like we are pulling the right levers, that we've got the right brands in the right categories.

All that kind of stuff has not changed. It is just the environment continues to be really difficult. Was that a question? Okay.

Operator (participant)

Our next question will come from Kevin Grundy with BNP. Your line is open.

Kevin Grundy (Managing Director)

Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for the question. Two strategic ones for me, if we could. Lawson, a key competitor here has a new CFO, comes from the Coke system. There has been great progress on the soft drink side from a mix perspective, from a package mix perspective. It seems like that may be something that a key competitor is intent on pursuing as a way, not just to drive profits, but also to reach a more value-oriented consumer and to drive recruitment. I was just curious to kind of get your thoughts on that.

And then just unrelatedly, just on the pricing outlook here, if you could just comment, you guys have heard this before, just in terms of the amount of supply that's out there in U.S. whiskey, coupled with the fact that demand is slowing, which is now reflected in your outlook. The worry among the investment community is what that may mean for industry pricing and then ostensibly margins. Maybe just your updated thoughts on those two things would be appreciated. Thank you for that.

Lawson Whiting (President and CEO)

All right. Let me take the pricing question first, and then we'll come back into the RTDs. Pricing, look, what we have said before, and we are still saying today, is low single-digit on a regular basis is the pricing that we want to see out of Brown-Forman. We're always talking about the U.S., but come back to the U.S.

Pricing for a second. Over the last 13 weeks, TDS was down one point. We were down less than that. That's not great, but it's not like the bottom is falling out. You get some mixed things in there too as RTDs have been strong. Importantly, though, I think an interesting part of that is U.S. whiskey, suburbans for the most part, or Tennessee whiskey, is basically flat. For those that have expressed concern, I know over the last few calls, we've had conversations around industry supply and things like that. At least so far, it has not flowed through to more promotional lower pricing. I think in what we said last time, and I'll say it again, the big players in American whiskey control or at least have very large market share of the American whiskey category. It's the big players.

It's the Diageos and Brown-Formans and Sazerac and Beams. They seem to be professional in their pricing, whatever the word really wants to be, rational, I guess that's a better word for it, that they're being rational in their pricing environment. Tequila is the other category that everybody wants to talk about. It's down 2%. Once again, it's not like the bottom is falling out, but I think we all accepted that you were going to see some pressure on tequila pricing given the direction of the cost of agave. I do not want to say pleasantly surprised, but I guess I am a little bit that the pricing environment has stayed where it is.

Leanne Cunningham (EVP and CFO)

I would say to the RTD comment that you were referring to, we've been in this business for over 30 plus years.

We have over 30 million cases of RTDs already in our portfolio. You would have heard in Lawson's prepared comments, it's something we continue to very much believe in. New Mix, which is one of our key drivers of growth in Mexico, we've been able to take pricing. We have been expanding our distribution. Through innovation, we've been launching new flavors. In F2026, we're also going to take New Mix and extend it beyond Mexico and launch it into the U.S., targeted specifically to some areas as we begin the launch to give it good footing as we go forward. We think it will continue to resonate well with a lot of consumers. For our Jack and Coke, it's about geographic expansion in F2026 and working through and launching new innovations in that space.

You would have seen us do that in F25 with the variety pack, which we had Jack and Coke, Jack and Coke Cherry, and Jack and Coke Vanilla. It is just a space where we continue to innovate and grow. We agree the consumer right now, in many places around the world, is preferring convenience and flavor. This is a good format to be able to deliver that to them.

Lawson Whiting (President and CEO)

One thing I'll add to that too on the comment earlier about package and sizing and things like that, that Quantos is a little bit easier in the non-alcoholic space. There is more flexibility than there is in ours. Just this one stat I found interesting. I had not heard this before. 80%, this is in Nielsen, U.S., last 12 months.

80% of the dollar growth in spirits has been through the 375 mL and the 50 mL, so the small sizes. That is unusual to say the least. I think it goes further to talk about cyclical challenges of a consumer who is pinched and just goes to the store with a $10 bill instead of $20, and then they get the smaller size. We do not necessarily consider that a bad thing. That came up a couple of calls ago, maybe for some folks. It means they still want your brand. They just cannot afford the whole, they cannot afford a liter or whatever it might be, and so they are taking the smaller size. I think that is a sign. It is called an opportunity too, that we need to get better at getting our small sizes out there.

Everyone, particularly in the U.S., is very aware of that. They're going for it.

Leanne Cunningham (EVP and CFO)

One small data point about the consumer in the U.S. While our coupons are a small tool in our promotional toolkit and have a same consistent level on F24, F25 of coupons offered, we are seeing redemption rates increase. Again, looking at that consumer who's looking for the value and be able to afford the luxury they can while remaining brand loyal.

Lawson Whiting (President and CEO)

If I can, to Naveen's question from five minutes ago, I wanted to add one other point I think is important that I forgot to say. It's basically despite what's happened over the last 12 months and a bit of the volatility and the challenges and the slowdown in the business, our three-year or five-year and our ten-year CAGR for top-line growth is the same number.

It's all in the mid-single digits. The three-year and the ten-year are the same number. It does not feel that way right now because of what has happened really in the last 12 months. It is coming off those elevated years post-COVID. I just find that interesting that three, five, and ten would all be the same.

Operator (participant)

The next question is going to come from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays. Your line is open.

Lauren Lieberman (Managing Director)

Great. Thanks. Good morning. Lawson, just following on the heels of that and looking at those sort of average growth rates over multi-year periods, obviously, by nature of the math, there is smoothing inherent in that. The trend line is less than encouraging. Notwithstanding everything you have already offered on views of cyclical versus structural, what about the what-if? What if it is more structural?

What if the category, let's say TDS, rather than being down 4%-5%, we reach a new level and it's kind of like a, it's more like beer. Let's call it down, well, beer's deferred too. Just for the sake of argument, say it's a down low single digit. What does that mean? What's the business planning? What's the break glass in case of emergency plan if there is one? Just to what degree are you guys having these conversations about what is the future business model if it's not cyclical? Thanks.

Lawson Whiting (President and CEO)

Yeah, look, I mean, that's a tough question. We certainly talk about it, although I'd still argue, I think we still believe in the cyclical side of the argument. To try to answer your question a little bit as to what will we do differently?

I mean, look, you take a page out of carbonated beverages and sodas. You take a page out of beer, some of those. It means you're doing more pricing. If the volume's not there and they still deliver, I mean, both beer and carbonated beverages have obviously lived on pricing for the last decade, really. I think there's some changes there. I think there's some resource reallocation. We're not seeing these headwinds in much of our emerging markets. They continue to grow. They continue to be the source of strength for our company. There's a long way to go in the world of emerging markets. As we've said many, many times, we've kind of barely scratched it. I think where the growth comes from is going to be a little bit different too. Then we look at our portfolio.

I mean, we are, as everyone knows, we are a premium-based spirits company. Premium consumers, I do believe, are going to continue to be, they're going to want brands like the ones that we have. I think we're relatively underexposed compared to some others that have a bigger, longer tail and a lower price portfolio.

Leanne Cunningham (EVP and CFO)

Just to build on that a bit, like with the U.S. RFP that we just did, it was all about making sure that the brands that we have in a competitive market are with partners that have proven track records, strong capabilities, and a shared commitment to make sure they're going to continue to grow our brand. They have ensured we are going to have dedication, focus, investment, and building our brands.

We continue to do that in other markets such as U.A.E., where we are expanding our distribution, and Türkiye, where we have new distributors that will cover more geographies. To Lawson's point, emerging international. We're doing it with Italy and Japan and taking those brands into our hands, especially with Gin Mare and Diplomático, where we have a lot of opportunity to continue to grow those brands. It is that, and it is continued to find synergies where it is available. I hope through all of the work that we have been doing over the last two fiscal years, F2025 and what we have planned for F2026, we are demonstrating that we are moving at pace with many strategic initiatives, and we are being incredibly agile to make sure we're capturing synergies and opportunities.

Operator (participant)

The next question will come from Robert Moskow with TD Cowen. Your line is open.

Robert Moskow (Managing Director)

Hi.

I was hoping to give a comment on a couple of things. One is this is a very volatile global environment, and in a lot of markets, there's discontent about American brands. Have you done any testing of how your Jack Daniel's brand is perceived in these international markets, if anything's changed? And then secondly, can you talk about your philosophy on A&P? A&P is down 6% in fiscal 2025. Would you expect it to be down again in fiscal 2026, given the expectation for sales to be down?

Thanks. Yeah. Let me take on the Jack one first. We've had this quite literally over my career. It's come through numerous different times when there's a bit of anti-American sentiment moving around the world.

Lawson Whiting (President and CEO)

Historically, they've never "taken it out on the brand." We have numerous examples of that back in the days when we were still selling in Russia, that we did not lose any momentum there with that. France is another one where over the years, there have been different anti-American sentiments, and it did not really affect the brand. In terms of how do we measure it? Are we testing it? Are those kind of things? I mean, that is one thing. I mean, almost if I could find one very positive thing to say today after everything that we are doing is we have made so many changes to the Jack Daniel's communications and consumer touching. All those plans have changed quite a bit, highlighted by the new advertising campaign, which has only been out for a few weeks.

You're not going to see anything in the data yet. We are seeing now meaningful improvement in the brand health measures. There's probably nothing more important over the long term for Brown-Forman than that. We think we've made some smart moves there in the different programs that we're running right now. When we do our consumer testing, we are not seeing anything flow through in terms of a knock to brand health so far. We feel pretty good about that.

Leanne Cunningham (EVP and CFO)

From an A&P philosophy, there's really no change in philosophy. There's just been volatility in that philosophy because we plan our A&P in line with our depletion-based expectations. Starting with COVID, as you've been following our story, depletions and shipments, there have been a gap between those for a lot of reasons that we've discussed over many years.

Those gaps have now closed. We will continue to plan in line with depletion-based growth. I think it's important to mention that over the last five years, we've increased our brand investment by nearly $100 million. We believe the level of investment that we're making in our portfolios is adequate. We also have to remember for our portfolio of premium-plus brands, they're also supported by our people, which are coming through SG&A.

Operator (participant)

The next question will come from Filippo Falorni with Citi. Your line is open.

Filippo Falorni (VP and Director of Equity Research)

Hi. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the question. First, I wanted to ask about the developed international business, clearly a material deceleration in Q4. I get the Canada component of it, but can you expand a little bit more in kind of the European weakness?

You talked a bit about the U.K., but just generally the weakness that you see in other developed markets there. The second question, just a follow-up on the guidance. I know you guide on an organic basis. Just clarifying, does that include the Corbel exit? If not, just give us a sense of how much that should be an incremental headwind to top-line and profit. Thank you.

Lawson Whiting (President and CEO)

Yeah. I'll take the international question first. I mean, the international markets continue to grow, drive a lot of the growth for our company. I think you all know that. Europe has been weaker for quite a while. If you go to takeaway trends in Europe, you just look at spirits takeaway, they're kind of similar to what you're seeing in the United States. Still very difficult markets.

They're kind of down in that low to mid-single digit range. We will see how that plays out. We continue to take share in many, many markets across Europe, and they continue to be an important part of our company and a big part of our company. As we said earlier, I mean, the emerging markets of, I'll call it, Latin America and Mexico in particular are very strong for Brown-Forman and continue to be highlight markets. We've been particularly Brazil, we've been talking about that for a long time. We're seeing pockets of growth in other parts of Asia and other emerging markets. It is Europe that we need to get turned around. We've made a lot of changes and some route to consumer changes there. Expectations are that that will improve over the next year.

Leanne Cunningham (EVP and CFO)

And then from a Korbel perspective or from our guidance perspective related to Korbel, in our organic results, our organic P&L, we will have May and June included in that, then excluded from that point forward. And then from a reported perspective, it will exclude Korbel from July 1 forward. And that's F$94 million on our S&S top line and then about $12 million in operating income on the bottom line that will come out of the reported P&L.

Operator (participant)

Due to time, this will conclude the Q&A session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Sue for closing remarks.

Sue Perram (VP and Director of Investor Relations)

Thank you. And thank you, Lawson and Leanne, and thank you to everyone for joining us today for Brown-Forman's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Call. If you have any additional questions, please contact us.

As we close, National Bourbon Day is June 14th. It is the day to recognize the official spirit of the United States. On this day, wherever you are, we hope that you will responsibly enjoy a glass of Old Forester or Woodford Reserve with us. With that, this concludes today's call.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for participating. And you.