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    Butterfly Network Inc (BFLY)

    BFLY Q4 2024: 25% Revenue Growth, Q1 at $20–23M

    Reported on Jul 7, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$3.73Last close (Feb 27, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$3.00Open (Feb 28, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-0.73(-19.57%)

    What went well

    • Robust Revenue Momentum and Growth Pipeline: Executives emphasized a strong core business with 25% revenue growth in 2024 and provided near-term guidance of $20–$23 million in Q1 revenue, while also highlighting the bullish potential from new streams like Octiv and HomeCare.
    • Competitive Technological Advantages: The launch of iQ3 has been a market success—capturing 50% of 2024 sales—and internal blinded reviews with 470 doctors showed a preference for its image quality over competitive devices, underlining Butterfly’s innovation and ability to close the quality gap.
    • Scalable New Business Initiatives: The HomeCare pilot, which trained 18 nurses across two facilities for a program designed for 200 patients with early indicators of zero readmissions, and expanding partnerships under Octiv, illustrate scalable, cost-efficient growth opportunities beyond traditional revenue.

    What went wrong

    • HomeCare revenue uncertainty: The HomeCare channel remains in the pilot phase with only 200 patients, and its conversion to a revenue-generating franchise is not yet included in the 2025 guidance, which adds uncertainty to its future contribution.
    • Reliance on subjective assessments for product quality: Executives emphasized improved image quality based on internal surveys and subjective comparisons rather than definitive, objective measures, potentially undermining the long-term competitive differentiation in a market with well-established players.
    • Exclusion of new revenue streams from guidance: The revenue guidance explicitly excludes additional revenue from new initiatives like Octiv and HomeCare, suggesting that future growth will depend on unproven business lines, which increases risk if these new streams fail to materialize as anticipated.

    Q&A Summary

    1. Revenue Outlook
      Q: Progress toward $500M target?
      A: Management expressed strong confidence in the future, highlighting a steady core business and promising new initiatives like Octiv and HomeCare that will contribute over the long term, even though the target remains a strategic vision.

    2. Guidance Scope
      Q: Does guidance include new revenue streams?
      A: They clarified that the guidance only covers existing contracts—including current Octiv projects—while excluding any newly signed revenue streams such as additional HomeCare deals.

    3. HomeCare Conversion
      Q: How to convert pilot to revenue?
      A: The plan is to scale the HomeCare pilot by rapidly training on-site personnel (about a 90-day process) and leveraging virtual tools, laying the groundwork to transition pilots into a commercial revenue stream.

    4. HomeCare Metrics
      Q: What are the pilot numbers?
      A: So far, they trained 18 nurses across 2 facilities to cover a pilot designed for 200 patients with no hospital readmissions observed, although the sample size remains small.

    5. Hardware Developments
      Q: Updates on hardware and iQ station?
      A: They confirmed progress on the next-generation P5 chip and the development of new hardware probes along with the iQ station for a lower-end cart solution, all executed with careful cash management.

    6. Product Quality
      Q: Is image quality competitive?
      A: Management noted that blinded reviews involving 470 doctors overwhelmingly favored the new iQ3 device, comparing favorably with top rivals like LUMIFY, thereby underscoring its improved image quality.

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