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SAUL CENTERS, INC. (BFS)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered revenue growth but earnings compression: Total revenue rose to $72.0M (+7.0% YoY), while GAAP net income fell to $14.0M and GAAP EPS to $0.32 due to the ramp of Twinbrook Quarter Phase I and higher interest/depreciation expense .
  • Versus estimates, BFS posted a revenue beat and an EPS beat: Actual revenue of $72.0M vs $70.7M consensus and EPS $0.32 vs $0.23 consensus; limited sell-side coverage (one estimate) reduces confidence but directionally positive for the print* .
  • Same property NOI declined modestly: Total same property NOI fell 2.0% YoY to $48.0M, with Shopping Centers down $0.4M and Mixed-Use down $0.6M, largely on lower lease termination fees and lower mixed-use commercial rent .
  • Twinbrook Quarter Phase I remains the key near-term swing factor: management quantified a $4.7M adverse impact to net income YoY (including $4.6M reduction in capitalized interest), while residential leasing reached 95.4% (431/452 units) and Wegmans opened in late Q2, positioning an improving run-rate into FY26 .
  • Dividend sustained: Common dividend held flat at $0.59 per share for Q3, reinforcing capital return stability amidst development ramp .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Twinbrook residential leasing exceeded 95%: “As of November 3, 2025, 431 of the 452 (95.4%) residential units were leased and occupied,” highlighting strong initial demand and occupancy momentum .
  • Revenue growth in core rent: Commercial base rent increased YoY (+$1.1M) and residential base rent increased (+$0.3M) excluding Twinbrook impacts, supporting underlying rent-driven topline growth .
  • Q3 print beat conservative estimates: Revenue beat +$1.3M (+1.8%) and EPS beat +$0.09 (+39%) versus S&P Global consensus (one estimate)*, helping sentiment despite NOI softness .

What Went Wrong

  • Earnings dilution from development ramp: “Net income… was adversely impacted by $4.7 million… due to the initial operations of Twinbrook Quarter Phase I,” including a $4.6M drop in capitalized interest; this weighed on GAAP EPS and FFO per share YoY .
  • Same property NOI down: Total same property NOI decreased $1.0M (-2.0%) YoY, driven by lower lease termination fees (-$0.6M) and lower mixed-use commercial base rent (-$0.6M) .
  • Higher opex and credit losses: Excluding Twinbrook, net income decreased by $0.9M on higher G&A (+$0.8M), higher credit losses (+$0.4M), lower expense recoveries (-$0.3M), and higher interest expense (+$0.2M) .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$67.288 $71.856 $70.834 $72.004
Net Income ($USD Millions)$19.592 $12.848 $14.181 $13.996
GAAP EPS ($USD)$0.48 $0.29 $0.33 $0.32
FFO ($USD Millions)$28.866 $24.573 $25.360 $25.304
Diluted FFO/Share ($USD)$0.83 $0.71 $0.73 $0.72
Same Property NOI ($USD Millions)Q3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Shopping Centers$36.149 $35.273 $35.296 $35.759
Mixed-Use$12.830 $12.748 $12.767 $12.235
Total$48.979 $48.021 $48.063 $47.994
Net Income Margin %Q3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Computed (Net Income/Revenue)29.1% 17.9% 20.0% 19.4%
KPIsQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Commercial Portfolio Leased (%)95.7% 93.9% 94.0% 94.5%
Residential Portfolio Leased (ex Milton) (%)98.8% 99.3% 99.0% 98.5%
Twinbrook Quarter Phase I Residential LeasingN/A274 units leased/occupied 86.1% of 452 units 95.4% of 452 units
Wegmans at Twinbrook OpeningN/AN/AOpened 6/25/2025 Operating
Q3 2025 vs S&P Global ConsensusEstimateActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)70.74*72.00 +$1.26 (+1.8%)*
GAAP EPS ($)0.23*0.32 +$0.09 (+39.1%)*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global. Coverage limited (one estimate for revenue and EPS).

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY/Q4 2025None providedNone providedMaintained (no formal guidance)
GAAP EPSFY/Q4 2025None providedNone providedMaintained (no formal guidance)
FFO/ShareFY/Q4 2025None providedNone providedMaintained (no formal guidance)
Common DividendQ3 2025$0.59$0.59Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: We did not locate an earnings call transcript for Q3 2025; themes below reflect company press releases.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Twinbrook Quarter Phase I rampQ1: 274 units leased; initial operations negatively impacted net income by $6.5M . Q2: Wegmans opened 6/25; 86.1% residential units leased; adverse impact $5.4M to net income .95.4% residential units leased; adverse impact $4.7M to net income as capitalization of interest declines .Improving occupancy; earnings drag easing as lease-up progresses.
Lease termination feesQ1: Lower termination fees pressured same property NOI and shopping center NOI .Continued lower termination fees; shopping center same property NOI down $0.4M YoY .Persistent headwind YoY.
OccupancyCommercial: 93.9% (Q1) → 94.0% (Q2) . Residential ex Milton: 99.3% (Q1) → 99.0% (Q2) .Commercial: 94.5%; Residential ex Milton: 98.5% .Commercial trending up; residential slightly down but still high.
Interest expense & capitalizationQ1/Q2: Higher interest expense and reduced capitalized interest contributed to lower GAAP earnings .Capitalized interest reduction ($4.6M) central to earnings drag; interest expense remained elevated .Earnings pressure moderating as development transitions to operations.
Mixed-Use commercial rentQ1: Mixed-Use NOI up modestly . Q2: Mixed-Use NOI flat YoY .Mixed-Use same property NOI down (-$0.6M) YoY on lower commercial base rent .Softer mixed-use commercial performance YoY.

Management Commentary

  • “Concurrent with the initial delivery of Twinbrook Quarter Phase I on October 1, 2024, interest, real estate taxes, depreciation and all other costs associated with the residential portion and the majority of the retail portion of the property began to be charged to expense, while revenue continues to grow as occupancy increases.”
  • “As a result, compared to the 2024 Quarter, net income for the 2025 Quarter was adversely impacted by $4.7 million, of which $4.6 million was a reduction in capitalized interest, due to the initial operations of Twinbrook Quarter Phase I.”
  • “Exclusive of Twinbrook Quarter Phase I, net income decreased by $0.9 million primarily due to… higher general and administrative costs… lower lease termination fees… higher credit losses… lower expense recoveries… and higher interest expense…”
  • “As of November 3, 2025, 431 of the 452 (95.4%) residential units were leased and occupied.”

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q3 2025 earnings call transcript was available via our document search; therefore, no Q&A insights or clarifications could be extracted for this quarter [ListDocuments returned none for earnings-call-transcript].

Estimates Context

  • Limited coverage: Only one active estimate for revenue and EPS for Q3 and Q4 reduces statistical confidence in the magnitude of the beat/miss*.
  • Comparison for Q3 2025: Revenue beat consensus by +$1.26M (+1.8%); EPS beat by +$0.09 (+39.1%)* .
  • FFO/Share consensus was not available for the quarter*.

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term earnings drag from Twinbrook Phase I is transitory; with residential leasing at 95.4% and Wegmans in operation since late Q2, we expect sequential improvement in run-rate as capitalization of interest normalizes and NOI ramps .
  • Underlying rent growth remains intact: commercial and residential base rents grew YoY (ex-Twinbrook impact), supporting revenue resilience amid lower non-recurring items (lease termination fees) .
  • Same property NOI softness is primarily mix and non-recurring related; watch lease termination activity and mixed-use commercial rent recovery to stabilize Shopping Center/Mixed-Use NOI lines .
  • Balance sheet gearing increased with construction and term loans; monitor interest expense trajectory and refinancing plans as development transitions to full operations .
  • Dividend stability (unchanged at $0.59) offers yield support while Twinbrook ramps; payout sustainability looks reasonable given high occupancy and core rent strength .
  • Estimate beats amid limited coverage could catalyze near-term stock reaction, but sustained multiple expansion likely hinges on visible NOI inflection from Twinbrook and normalization of interest expense/depreciation drag .
  • Actionable: Focus on leasing milestones (remaining retail at Twinbrook), lease termination fee cadence, and mixed-use office/retail demand in the DC/Baltimore footprint (>85% NOI exposure) to gauge the pace of NOI recovery and FFO/Share re-acceleration into FY26 .