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BG

BGC Group, Inc. (BGC)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record Q1 2025 revenue of $664.2M (+14.8% YoY) and Post-tax Adjusted EPS of $0.29 (+16.0% YoY); Adjusted EBITDA was $199.8M, down 4.1% YoY due to a $36.6M prior-period mark-to-market gain, implying underlying growth ex one-time items .
  • Broad-based strength: Rates (+14.8%), ECS (+26.6%), FX (+31.0%); Americas revenue +23.3%, EMEA +12.2%, APAC +2.4% .
  • Q2 2025 guidance: revenue $715–$765M and pre-tax Adjusted Earnings $156–$171M; full-year Adjusted Earnings tax rate expected at 10–12% .
  • Strategic catalysts: FMX UST ADV >$60B and ~33% CLOB market share; FMX FX ADV ~$14.5B; OTC Global Holdings closed Apr 1 for $325M, expected to add >$400M annualized revenue and be immediately accretive .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • “We delivered record quarterly revenues of more than $664 million, a 15 percent increase versus last year's record first quarter” — Sean Windeatt, Co-CEO .
    • FMX momentum: UST ADV >$60B (+33% YoY), market share ~33%; FX ADV ~$14.5B (more than doubled), first >$100B daily volume on Feb 28 .
    • ECS strength: revenues +26.6% to record $149.9M, with growth across environmental/energy transition and oil/refined products; Americas +23.3% growth .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Adjusted EBITDA down 4.1% YoY to $199.8M, impacted by a $36.6M prior-period investment fair value gain; underlying EBITDA would have been +16.3% YoY excluding that item .
    • Credit revenues -0.7% to $86.9M due to weaker EM and European volumes (offset by record PortfolioMatch and strong U.S. credit) .
    • Non-comp expenses rose 6.6% (Adjusted) and 5.2% (GAAP); comp expenses +17.5% on higher commissionable revenues, pressuring near-term margins .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$561.1 $572.3 $664.2
Pre-tax Adjusted Earnings ($USD Millions)$126.7 $129.5 $160.2
Post-tax Adjusted EPS ($USD)$0.26 $0.25 $0.29
GAAP EPS (Fully Diluted) ($USD)——$0.11
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$151.4 $192.0 $199.8
Asset Class Revenues ($USD Millions)Q1 2024Q1 2025YoY Change
Rates$175.1 $200.9 +14.8%
ECS (Energy, Commodities, Shipping)$118.5 $149.9 +26.6%
Foreign Exchange$84.0 $110.0 +31.0%
Credit$87.6 $86.9 -0.7%
Equities$62.9 $62.9 +0.1%
Total Brokerage Revenues$528.0 $610.8 +15.7%
Data, Network, Post-trade$30.9 $32.5 +5.2%
Other, Interest, Fees$19.7 $21.0 +6.4%
Total Revenues$578.6 $664.2 +14.8%
Fenics Revenues ($USD Millions)Q1 2024Q1 2025YoY Change
Fenics Markets$127.4 $145.5 +14.2%
Fenics Growth Platforms$21.9 $27.1 +23.7%
Total Fenics Revenues$149.3 $172.7 +15.6%
Regional Revenue GrowthQ1 2025 YoY
Americas+23.3%
EMEA+12.2%
APAC+2.4%
Expenses and Taxes ($USD Millions)Q1 2024Q1 2025YoY Change
Comp & Benefits (GAAP / Adjusted)$290.8 $341.6 +17.5%
Non-Comp (GAAP)$161.1 $169.6 +5.2%
Non-Comp (Adjusted)$152.9 $162.9 +6.6%
GAAP Tax Provision$22.1 $26.5 +20.4%
Adjusted Earnings Tax Provision$12.3 $19.0 +54.3%
Balance Sheet & OtherQ4 2024Q1 2025
Liquidity ($USD Thousands)$897,781 $1,146,087
FD Weighted-Average Shares (Adjusted) (Millions)495.5 501.5
Dividend per Share ($USD)$0.01 $0.02

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD Millions)Q1 2025$610–$660M (Feb 14) Reaffirmed ranges (Mar 26) Maintained
Pre-tax Adjusted Earnings ($USD Millions)Q1 2025$145–$161M (Feb 14) Reaffirmed ranges (Mar 26) Maintained
Revenue ($USD Millions)Q2 2025—$715–$765M New (initiated)
Pre-tax Adjusted Earnings ($USD Millions)Q2 2025—$156–$171M New (initiated)
Adjusted Earnings Tax RateFY 2025—10%–12% New (initiated)
Dividend per ShareQ2 2025 payout schedule—$0.02 declared; payable Jun 10, ex-div May 27 New (initiated)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (Previous Mentions)Q4 2024 (Previous Mentions)Q1 2025 (Current Period)Trend
FMX UST & FX growthUST ADV ~$53B; CLOB share 29.4%; FX ADV >$9B; Futures launched with 5 FCMs UST ADV >$52B; FX ADV >$11B; onboarding large FCMs; UST futures planned end-Q1’25 UST ADV >$60B; CLOB share ~33%; FX ADV ~$14.5B; daily high >$100B; UST futures launch in May Accelerating
ECS expansion & M&AAgreement to acquire OTC; Sage closed; ECS growth strong Sage closed; OTC expected end-Q1; ~+$450M annual rev from energy deals OTC closed Apr 1 for $325M; >$400M annualized; immediately accretive Transformative/Scaling
Margin mix & stock-based compPositive earnings growth; electronic mix helping margins Pre-tax AE margin expansion drivers explained; electronic higher margins; SBC philosophy reiterated EBITDA optics affected by prior MTM gain; OTC margins initially below core; synergy path over Year 1–2 Mixed near term; positive medium term
Futures exchange roadmapYear 1 connectivity; Year 2 deeper client; Year 3 competition Expect >10 FCMs before UST futures launch Launch delayed to May due to volatility; LCH “ready”; roadmap reaffirmed On plan; short delay
Leadership/governanceCEO commentary, strategic direction Howard Lutnick nomination; leadership transition; share divestment within 90 days post-confirmation, no open market sales expected Divestment timeline “fast approaching”; expect no open market sales or corporate structure change Governance clarity improving
Tax rate—Post-tax Adjusted EPS +19%; no explicit tax rate 2025 Adjusted Earnings tax rate 10–12%; Q1 calc ~11.9% per analyst Clearer guidance

Management Commentary

  • “FMX had its best ever quarter, with record volumes and market share… On April 1st, we completed our transformative acquisition of OTC Global Holdings, that is expected to add over $400 million in annualized revenue… We expect the acquisition of OTC to be immediately accretive” — Sean Windeatt .
  • “Foreign exchange revenues were up 31% to a record $110 million… Data, network and post-trade revenues increased by 5.2%… Excluding Capitalab, revenues grew by circa 10% year-over-year” — John Abularrage .
  • “We expect to generate total revenues of between $715 million and $765 million… pretax adjusted earnings $156 million to $171 million… adjusted earnings tax rate… between 10% and 12% for the full year 2025” — Sean Windeatt .
  • “The cash burn to BGC is 0 [for FMX futures]… in the medium to long term… margins… around the 40% to 50% level” — Sean Windeatt .

Q&A Highlights

  • FMX UST futures launch: Slight delay due to April volatility; LCH “ready” and launch in May; roadmap (Year 1 connectivity, Year 2 depth/volumes, Year 3 full competition vs CME) reiterated .
  • OTC integration and margins: Expected >$115M implied Q2 revenue contribution (midpoint), margins initially below BGC’s >20% pre-tax margin but expanding over Year 1–2; cross-sell synergies underway; cash outlay $325M on Apr 1 .
  • FMX economics: No cash burn to BGC for futures development (partners fund it); longer-term exchange margins targeted at ~40–50% .
  • Governance: Howard Lutnick to comply with Senate Ethics Committee; divest within ~90 days of confirmation; no open market sales and no corporate structure changes expected .
  • Tax rate: Analyst-calculated Q1 ~11.9%; management guides 10–12% for FY 2025 Adjusted Earnings .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 vs ConsensusRevenue ($USD Millions)EPS ($USD)
Actual$664.2 $0.29 (Post-tax Adjusted)
S&P Global Consensus Mean$633.016*$0.285*
OutcomeBeatBeat
Other Consensus (Quarterly)Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD)$767.800*$736.200*$746.946*
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)$0.31*$0.28*$0.29*
EBITDA Consensus Mean ($USD)$218.047*$207.276*$203.612*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Implications: The top-line and Adjusted EPS outperformance vs consensus reflect broad-based volume strength (Rates, FX, ECS) and continued electronic mix shift; EBITDA optics lagged consensus given the prior-period mark-to-market comparison and mix of comp/non-comp growth, but underlying EBITDA trajectory ex one-time items was strong .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Broad-based volume and pricing tailwinds in Rates, FX, and ECS drove a clean revenue and Adjusted EPS beat against consensus; underlying EBITDA growth ex prior one-time gain is robust .
  • FMX continues to take share in U.S. Treasuries and scale FX; UST futures launch in May is a near-term catalyst with no cash burn to BGC and longer-term exchange-like margin potential (~40–50%) .
  • OTC Global Holdings materially scales ECS, adds diversification, and is immediately accretive; expect initial margin dilution vs BGC core, improving over Year 1–2 via integration synergies .
  • Q2 guide implies ~34% YoY revenue growth at midpoint (including OTC), with pre-tax Adjusted Earnings growth ~30% at midpoint; tax rate clarity (10–12%) supports modeling confidence .
  • Expense growth tied to commissionable revenues and ongoing investment will be a watch point; mix shift to electronic and data/platform assets should support medium-term margin expansion .
  • Liquidity strengthened to ~$1.15B; ongoing buyback runway highlighted, with repurchases expected to increase over the year (seasonality noted) alongside dividend continuity .
  • Governance overhang from required share divestment appears manageable given expected method (no open market sales) and no corporate structure change, reducing tail risk .