Boyd Group Services - Q2 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Boyd Group Services Inc.'s Second Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call. Listeners are reminded that certain matters discussed in today's conference call or answers that may be given to questions asked could constitute forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties related to Boyd's future financial or business performance. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements. The risk factors that may affect results are detailed in Boyd's Annual Information Form and other periodic filings and registration statements, and you can access these documents at SEDAR+ database found at sedarplus.ca. I'd like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded today, Thursday, August 8, 2024. I would now like to introduce Mr. Tim O'Day, President and Chief Executive Officer of Boyd Group Services Inc. Please go ahead, Mr. O'Day.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us for today's call. On the call with me today is Jeff Murray, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Brian Kaner, who I'm pleased to announce, has been appointed President and Chief Operating Officer of Boyd Group Services Inc. In his expanded role, Brian will have operating responsibility for the entire company. Concurrent with this change, I will remain Chief Executive Officer, however, relinquish the title of President. This change is being made to position Brian with company-wide operating oversight, responsibility, and influence. We released our 2024 second quarter results before markets opened today. You can access our news release as well as our complete financial statements and Management's Discussion and Analysis on our website at boydgroup.com. Our news release, financial statements, and MD&A have also been filed on SEDAR+ this morning.

On today's call, we'll discuss the financial results for the three- and six-month periods ended June 30, 2024, and provide a general business update. We'll then open the call for questions. During the second quarter of 2024, Boyd recorded sales of $779.2 million, Adjusted EBITDA of $89.6 million, and net earnings of $10.8 million. As reported by industry sources, repairable claims continued to be down approximately 7% during the second quarter of 2024. By contrast, the company's same-store sales experienced a decline of only 3.2%, demonstrating Boyd's ability to gain market share even in a difficult environment. Under normal conditions, the decline in repairable appraisals due to ADAS and higher total loss rates would be more than offset by the increased miles driven and increased costs of repair.

However, weather-related factors, changes in consumer behavior due to economic uncertainty and higher insurance premiums resulted in the deferral and non-filing of claims, which further negatively impacted repairable appraisals in the second quarter. The internalization of scanning and calibration services, progress in Boyd's Repair First strategy and focus on the use of cost-effective alternative parts delivered strong value by lowering repair costs for the company's customers and consequently reduced sales that could have otherwise been achieved while benefiting gross margin percentage. This resulted in a significant sequential improvement in gross margins and Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of sales, moving from 44.8% and 10.4% in the first quarter to 45.6% and 11.5% in the second quarter, respectively.

For the second quarter of 2024, sales were $779.2 million, a 3.4% increase when compared to the same period of 2023. This reflects $50.9 million of incremental contribution from 109 new locations. As mentioned earlier, our same-store sales, excluding foreign exchange, decreased by 3.2% in the quarter, although repairable claims continued to be down approximately 7%. The second quarter recognized the same number of selling and production days when compared to the same period of 2023. Gross margin was 45.6% in the second quarter of 2024, compared to 45.5% achieved in the same period of 2023. Gross margin percentage benefited from increased scanning and calibration, higher parts margins, improved glass margins, and improvements in performance-based pricing.

Labor rate increases have added to sales and gross profit dollars. However, margins remain below historical levels. Operating expenses for the second quarter of 2024 were CAD $265.9 million, or 34.1% of sales, compared to CAD $247.3 million or 32.8% of sales in the same period as 2023. Operating expenses as a percentage of sales was negatively impacted by the decline in same-store sales and new locations, which contributed sales but with a higher operating expense ratio. Adjusted EBITDA, or EBITDA adjusted for fair value adjustments to financial instruments and costs related to acquisitions and transactions, was CAD $89.6 million, a 6.1% decrease over the same period in 2023.

The decrease was a result of lower same-store sales, partially offset by improvements in gross margin percentage. Net earnings for the second quarter of 2024 was $10.8 million, compared to $26.3 million in the same period of 2023. Excluding fair value adjustments and acquisition and transaction costs, Adjusted Net Earnings for the second quarter of 2024 was $11.9 million, or $0.56 per share, compared to $27 million or $1.26 per share in the same period of the prior year. Net earnings and Adjusted Net Earnings for the period was negatively impacted by the decrease in Adjusted EBITDA, as well as the increased finance costs and increased depreciation related to location growth.

For the six months ended June 30, 2024, sales totaled CAD $1.6 billion, an increase of CAD $97.5 million, or 6.6% when compared to the same period of the prior year, driven by CAD $109.2 million incremental contributions from 132 new locations that had not been in operation for the full comparative period. Our same-store sales, excluding foreign exchange, decreased by 0.7% for the six months ended June 30, recognizing the same number of selling and production days when compared to the same period of the prior year. As reported by industry sources, repairable appraisals were down, declining 7%-8% on a year-over-year basis.

Gross margin decreased to 45.2% of sales, compared to 45.6% of sales in the comparative period, while gross profit increased to CAD $708 million from CAD $669.7 million when compared to the same period of the prior year. Gross margin percentage decreased due to several factors, including variability due to performance-based pricing and lower contribution margins from a greater number of new locations. Labor rate increases have added to sales and gross profit dollars. However, margins remain below historical levels. These negative impacts were modestly offset by the benefit of increased internalization of scanning and calibration and improved glass margins. Operating expenses increased CAD $47.1 million compared to the same period of the prior year, primarily as a result of location growth and incremental expense investments.

In addition, new locations contributed to sales, but with a higher operating expense ratio. Closed locations lowered operating expenses by $700,000. Adjusted EBITDA for the six months ended June 30 was $171.3 million, compared to $180.1 million in the same period of the prior year. The $8.8 million decrease was primarily the result of declines in repairable claim volumes for services. We reported net earnings of $19.2 million, compared to $47.1 million in the same period of the prior year. Adjusted net earnings per share decreased from $2.25 to $1. The decrease in Adjusted Net Earnings per share is primarily attributable to the decrease in Adjusted EBITDA, as well as increased finance costs and increased depreciation related to new location growth.

At the end of the period, we had total debt net of cash of CAD $1.2 billion. Debt net of cash increased when compared to the prior quarter, primarily as a result of acquisition, acquisition activity and increased capital expenditures, including new location startups. In addition, startup locations have resulted in an increase in real estate assets. The company's strategy has been not to hold real estate except where necessary for growth opportunities. Certain startup locations necessitate short-term holding of real estate until the build is complete and operations have begun. During 2024, the company plans to make cash capital expenditures, excluding those related to network technology upgrades and acquisition and development of new locations, within the range of 1.8%-2% of sales.

Excluding these expenditures, the company spent approximately $31.9 million, or 2% of sales, on capital expenditures during the six months ended June 30, 2024. The company spent $28.7 million, or 2% of sales, on capital expenditures, excluding those related to acquisition and development during the same period of 2023. The company has a number of initiatives underway to ensure the business is well positioned for long-term success. Boyd has made progress in improving gross margins and keeping costs down for the company's customers in the second quarter of 2024. The continued claims softness has impacted demand for services thus far in the third quarter, which is resulting in similar same-store challenges that we experienced during the second quarter of 2024.

While claim volumes and demand for services are currently below prior year levels, Boyd views these as short-term trends and remains highly confident in the underlying fundamentals of the business over the longer term. On a year-to-date basis, Boyd has added or acquired 30 new locations. While this activity is running at a slower pace than was the case one year ago, opportunities and Boyd's commitment to growth remain. The company has a robust pipeline of new location growth, including greenfield and brownfield development sites. While startup sites experience a longer development cycle and ramp-up period when compared to single-shop acquisitions. These facilities offer a number of advantages, and as a result, the company plans to continue increasing the proportion of growth using this approach.

Despite the recent same-store sales growth challenges, the company remains confident that Boyd is on track to achieve its long-term growth goals, including doubling the size of the business on a constant currency basis from 2021 to 2025 against 2019 sales. In the long term, management remains confident in its business model and its ability to increase market share by expanding its presence in North America through strategic acquisitions, alongside organic growth from Boyd's existing operations. Accretive growth will remain the company's long-term focus, whether it's through organic growth, new store development, or acquisitions. The North American collision repair industry remains highly fragmented and offers attractive opportunities for industry leaders to build value through focused consolidation and economies of scale.

As a growth company, Boyd's objective continues to be to maintain a conservative dividend policy that will provide the financial flexibility necessary to support growth initiatives, while gradually increasing dividends over time. The company remains confident in its management team, systems, and experience. This, along with a strong financial position and financing options, positions Boyd for success well into the future. With that, I would now like to open the call for questions. Operator?

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the Q&A session. To ask a question, you may press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad, and if you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing any keys. To withdraw your question, please press star followed by the number two. One moment please, for your first question. And your first question comes from the line of Sabahat Khan with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Sabahat Khan (Managing Director)

Great.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Good morning, Sabahat.

Sabahat Khan (Managing Director)

Good morning. Morning. So this, this kind of theme of folks not bringing their cars for repair seems to have come up a lot across a couple of calls across the ecosystem and autos. You know, from your perspective and sort of the confidence that you have on 2025, is your expectation that as the macro improves, whether it's early, mid, kind of just through 2025 and onward, that the the pattern of bringing cars in for repair when damaged and making insurance claims, that sort of normalizes? So is that something that we should read as being just tied to the macro environment and, you know, pocketbooks being a little bit tight?

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Yeah, absolutely. I think it's a combination of the probably some concern over the economic environment. You know, insurance premiums having gone up significantly over the past couple of years, and a reluctance on the part of some vehicle owners to file a claim, in part for fear that it may further increase their insurance rates. I would say that, you know, as over the years, as we've seen periods of economic uncertainty, it's pretty common for people to defer a claim or to cash out a claim rather than repair it. But but generally, that behavior, you know, bounces back the other direction over time.

Sabahat Khan (Managing Director)

Okay. And then I guess, just the the impact of this sort of with your insurance partners, I guess, is it making, you know, just the volumes going down, the cost for them may be going down. Is that making pricing discussions any easier, or how are they reacting to this dynamic?

Tim O'Day (CEO)

I don't think there's been a significant change in in that dynamic. You know, certainly it would be easier for them to to make pricing concessions when they're profitable, and if you look at those that have reported have had you know significant swings in profitability. So we're, we're gonna continue to aggressively pursue price increases to to make sure that we're treated you know fairly in the marketplace. And we really have never hesitated on that. That's been ongoing.

Sabahat Khan (Managing Director)

Great. And then, you know, just one last quick one. On the sort of the scanning and the calibration side, as you continue to internalize that, you know, is that something that when we look ahead to the next one to three years, it's something you build at a steady pace? Or could there come an inflection point where you maybe dedicate a larger proportion of your CapEx and just maybe OpEx to getting that internalization going? Thank you.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Yeah. I would, I would say that we -- and while we didn't comment it specifically this quarter, last quarter, we did comment on the significant growth in employee count we'd had in that business, and we continue to grow it pretty rapidly. What we've been saying is it'll take us 2-3 years to get to the point where we're servicing, you know, the vast majority of that business. And I would say that still holds true, although we're interested in accelerating that to the extent that we can probably properly manage that growth. We've made great progress on that.

Sabahat Khan (Managing Director)

Thank you very much.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Thanks, Sabahat.

Sabahat Khan (Managing Director)

Appreciate the color.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Krista Friesen with CIBC. Please go ahead.

Krista Friesen (Executive Director of Equity Research)

Hi. Thank you for the question.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Good morning, Krista.

Krista Friesen (Executive Director of Equity Research)

I was just wondering, how are you thinking about the Technician Development Program at this point? Just in terms of maybe pulling back on it for for cost savings, or maybe the labor environment isn't as tight. So just how are you thinking about that through this year and next year?

Brian Kaner (COO)

Yeah, Krista, it's Brian. You know, look, we continue to be committed to the Technician Development Program. You know, we have pulled back on the, you know, the level one portion of that program, which is, as you well know, is the, is where the predominant amount of cost is, just based on the-

... the environment that we're in right now. But in the long run, we believe that that's still the right way for us to develop the next generation of technicians in our business and remain very committed to, you know, as volume starts to come back, remain very committed to continuing to grow that program.

Krista Friesen (Executive Director of Equity Research)

Okay, great. And just the comment on pulling back kind of in at the level one part of it. Did that start in Q3, or did you kind of start to pull back a bit in Q2?

Brian Kaner (COO)

We pulled back a bit in Q2 as well. We're really focused on graduating the, you know, the twos and threes that we have in the program right now. And, you know, right now, it—given the volume situation, it's, you know, it's much more—it's it's better for us to keep feeding the techs that we have, you know, our body techs that we have in the shops today, as opposed to spreading that out across more people.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

I'd just add to that, Krista, that we talked even throughout last year about the fact that we were dissatisfied with the level of turnover in the first level of the program, which is the most expensive level. So some of the fine-tuning we've done is really to be more selective. You'll recall that when we built this program up three years ago, we went from almost no one in it to several hundred people over a couple of years. And I think this pause has given us the ability to be more selective at who goes into level one, which will result in more level one trainees getting to level two and ultimately graduating, but at a lower lower overall program cost.

Krista Friesen (Executive Director of Equity Research)

Okay, great. That makes sense. And just one last one from me. On the acquisition front, as you noted, we're running at a bit of a slower pace this year. Should we think of this pace as kind of a good run rate for the rest of the year?

Tim O'Day (CEO)

No, I wouldn't say that. I think that, you know, acquisitions have always been lumpy, and it's hard to predict exactly when deals will get done. But I feel really good about our pipeline, and I, I would expect, I would expect to see stronger activity in the last half of the year than we've seen in the first half of the year, as we, you know, successfully close on deals. We also are, and I mentioned this in my prepared comments, but we are building our pipeline of, of greenfield and brownfield facilities. And we feel really good about what that will do for us in the long run, in terms of giving us the facilities and the capacity we need to service all aspects of our business and markets. So we remain very committed to growth and still see great opportunity.

Krista Friesen (Executive Director of Equity Research)

Okay, perfect. Thanks. I'll jump back in the queue.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Steve Hansen with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Steve Hansen (Managing Director and Equity Analyst)

Yeah, good morning, guys.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Thanks for the time.

Steve Hansen (Managing Director and Equity Analyst)

First question is just around the same-store sales growth. Can you, at the risk of maybe being too granular, can you maybe just give us a sense for the cadence on how it performed throughout 2Q? Just trying to get a sense for whether it had sort of bottomed earlier in the period or in intro period, or where, or how things have basically trended through that period, just to give us a bit of insight into the third quarter, recognizing, of course, that you're suggesting similar levels.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Yeah. I wouldn't say that we saw a trend that would be a clear, you know, down X, down Y, down Z, that was favorable. You know, I think the the lower claims volume, for the reasons that I commented on earlier, were fairly stable through the quarter.

Steve Hansen (Managing Director and Equity Analyst)

Okay, that's helpful. And then just if I'm jumping back over to the margin side, in the last quarter, performance-based pricing was a bigger hit. You've recognized that there's less of an impact there, but it sounds like it's still part of a drag on margins. How should we think about sort of that specific element going forward on a margin basis?

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Yeah, I think that beginning in the third quarter of last year, we had an uptick in performance-based pricing, so there may have been a modest headwind in Q2 as a result of kind of lapping that change year-over-year. But overall, our performance with clients was excellent in the second quarter, and that had a favorable impact for us.

Steve Hansen (Managing Director and Equity Analyst)

Helpful. And just one last one, if I may. It's just around... it strikes me that the performance across the continent is actually quite diverse, or variable. And and at the same time, it sounds like the larger players, yourselves included, are taking share. I'm just trying to get a sense for whether or not you think that creates an opportunity to accelerate M&A as the pressure becomes more apparent on the smaller players, or does that present too much of a risk in a pausing environment where you might be adding capacity that's not necessarily full and hard to fill? So just trying to weigh those two off to each other, you know, pressure is building-

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Yeah.

Steve Hansen (Managing Director and Equity Analyst)

It should create opportunity, but-

Tim O'Day (CEO)

It's a really good question. I think we need to continue on our planned level of growth to build our business and accomplish our goals, but be sensitive to the fact that we have a challenging short-term environment. But we're not going to act in a short-term manner as it relates to growth because of what we're facing today. We we remain committed to growing units and and ultimately to driving organic growth in in whatever way we can. So I don't think it really changes our plan at all.

Steve Hansen (Managing Director and Equity Analyst)

Okay. Appreciate the time. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Daryl Young with Stifel. Please go ahead.

Daryl Young (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning, everyone.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Good morning, Daryl.

Daryl Young (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Just wanted to touch on margins, and specifically, I'm not sure if you can give this level of granularity, but what would the four-wall economics look like for the mature collision repair locations? And just trying to get a sense of, you know, how are they trending from a margin and profitability perspective relative to 2019. And I guess what I'm really getting at is just trying to strip out the impacts of a lot of these corporate-level initiatives around, you know, greenfield ramp-ups and scanning and calibration and the Technician Development Program, but just sort of drilling down to, you know, the four-wall economics of those mature locations.

Jeff Murray (Executive VP and CFO)

Yeah, sure. I, I can take that one. It's, Jeff here. Yeah, I would say certainly it's, it's part of, part of the answer is that, the drag from the new locations is, is affecting. And if you take that out, it does make a difference in terms of getting us back to where we were, if you just look at the, the four wall of the existing ones. But, but it wouldn't get us all the way there. I would say it might get us about halfway of the, of the, of distance. So there's still, there's still some work to be done in terms of getting, our, our leverage at the right, right level, for, for the existing stores as well.

Daryl Young (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Okay. Okay. And then in terms of Boyd's thinking around the ADAS headwinds, I think in the past you said it's about 100 basis point impact annually of the ramp-up of the new technology. Is that something you expect to accelerate in the years ahead, or is that sort of 100 basis point impact annually something you'd expect to be stable for the next few years?

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Yeah, the 100 basis points is really miles driven, going up by about 1 point a year, and ADAS for the next several years, having, you know, likely around a 2-point impact, netting to that 100 basis points. And I, I don't see that accelerating. In some ways, the lack of new car sales may even slow it a bit. But but we do expect that as that unfolds, that, you know, the cost of repair, because of those systems, will more than offset the decline in claim volume per mile driven.

Daryl Young (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Okay, that's helpful. Thanks, guys.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Thanks, Daryl.

Operator (participant)

Your next... Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Tamy Chen with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Morning, Tamy.

Tamy Chen (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, guys. Morning, Tim. Yeah, so a couple questions from my end. First is, I just curious, the volume you saw. So industry claim volume down about 7% in the quarter. I know your comp was down 3%, but that would have Texas in there, too. So I'm just wondering, is it fair to say your volumes in Q2 were similar to the industry decline, or or was it not as bad?

Tim O'Day (CEO)

No, I would, I wouldn't say that. You know, it's it's interesting that when you take the 7% reported repairable claims volume, that is further eroded by claims that are made where people choose not to repair. So the 7% is the repairable claims filed, not necessarily what was offered up to the collision industry for repair, to the extent that people choose to defer or not repair at all. We also saw a pretty significant softening of average repair cost increase during the quarter. Some of that was likely market.

Some of it was impacted by our own actions of increasing the use of cost-effective alternative parts, internalizing scanning and calibration services, which allows us to deliver it at a lower cost for our customers, and an increase in our tendency to repair, particularly as it relates to plastic repairs, which we have a committed initiative that you can see in our ESG report to drive plastic repairs up. All of those drive cost down for our customer, although they shift to labor operations or a higher margin alternative part, so it's generally favorable for gross margin. So, you know, in the environment that we were in, while I'm really disappointed with the same-store sales decline, I think our teams actually did a pretty good job of taking advantage of what was available in the market.

Tamy Chen (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Oh, I see. Okay. So your, the volume offered up for, to the repair shops sounds like it was lower than that. Okay, that's helpful to understand. And I remember just three or so months ago on your Q1 call, I think at the time, you said you weren't really seeing this consumer behavior dynamic, that it was more so the mild winter weather. It sounds so are you saying at some point in the second quarter, your network saw more of this consumer behavior come to fruition? And I notice you're describing it as deferral. So do you think that this this part will will come back and will have some catch-up when the macro part improves?

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Yeah. Well, there are two questions there. One is, you know, did the consumer behavior change start in Q2? And I would say, looking back now, our assessment is that it started before that, but we couldn't attribute it to that. We didn't have any information that would allow us to attribute to it. So we believed the majority of it was weather-related, which I do think we still believe that the majority of the impact in Q1 and Q2 was weather, weather-related, but this consumer behavior change is causing some disruption. As for deferred or not repaired, I would say historically some portion of those claims will ultimately be repaired, but some will probably just not be repaired, and there will be damaged vehicles that will never be addressed by the collision repair market.

Tamy Chen (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. And last one for me is the Q3 so far. So we should take that as it's not gotten worse sequentially, it's similar pace of headwinds as you saw in Q2?

Tim O'Day (CEO)

That's what we've seen thus far. Yes.

Tamy Chen (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Thank you.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Great. Thanks, Tamy.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Derek Lessard with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Derek Lessard (VP of Equity Research)

Yeah, good morning, everybody.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Good morning, Derek.

Derek Lessard (VP of Equity Research)

Good morning. Good morning, Tim. Congratulations, Brian. I actually had a question regarding the management change, and maybe if you could add some color to, I guess, the thinking behind that decision.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Sure. You know, I think just as part of growing Brian's responsibility and impact on the organization, I, as well as the board, felt it was appropriate to expand his area of responsibility to allow him to exert the same influence over our broader business that he has over our U.S. collision business. And while you may not feel it in some of our results, I can tell you that we've made some great strides in our, in our collision business over the past couple of years that I'm I'm pretty proud of. So I think that that's really the primary reason for it. And I'm looking forward to working with Brian in his new role to continue to drive the business.

Derek Lessard (VP of Equity Research)

Okay. And just maybe one last one for me. I'm just curious about how your backlog has trended so far, and how you feel about the, you know, the size of your labor force compared to the backlog and and volume.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Well, it pains me to say it, but we have labor capacity that we're not fully utilizing now. And and that's pretty unfamiliar territory with us. Having said that, when we analyze it, I would say that the backlogs that we see in the business are pretty consistent with what we were experiencing prior to the pandemic. So this isn't new territory for us, but, you know, we need our teams to focus on taking care of our customers, you know, making sure that we're delivering for our our insurance clients, and capturing opportunities that come available to us more aggressively than what we've had to, you know, as we've gone through the the significant surge in demand.

But this is territory that we need to change our behavior to take advantage of it or to make the most of it, but we have good experience in this.

Derek Lessard (VP of Equity Research)

Thanks, everybody, and good luck.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Thanks, Derek.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Gary Ho with Desjardins Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Hi, Gary.

Brian Kaner (COO)

Hey, Gary.

Gary Ho (Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning. So my first question, just on going back to the same-store sales growth. You still expect that to be down year-over-year in Q3 so far. Just wondering, what, what environment do you think it will take you to move that back to the positive territory? Is it stabilization in the used car prices, total loss rates, or stabilization in kind of insurance premiums? Just wondering what variables we should be tracking to see that inflection point.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

You know, I'm not sure I have a great answer for you on that. I mean, the certainly, as we begin to lap the consumer behavior change, you would expect that that we would start to see more normal growth in the market. There's no question that the weather impact in Q4 and Q1 were pretty meaningful, and I wouldn't expect that to recur. Even in Q2, we experienced less cat volume, like hail volume, than we had in the prior year. So, you know, there, there were a few different headwinds that are that are unusual. But I, I would expect as we lap the consumer behavior change, which, looking back, I think probably began in Q4, maybe was most pronounced in Q1, that we'll start to see a return to more normal patterns.

Gary Ho (Research Analyst)

Okay, that's helpful. And then my next question, just on the location adds. I know year to date, you've added 30 locations, with five that are considered startups, which is lower than the mix for startups last two years. I'm guessing you have some better line of sight in terms of startups, like this is more controllable on your side. So as you look out the next 10, 12 months, should we see more of those looking out? Any color you can provide?

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Yeah. I think you know, the next 12 months is a pretty short period of time, but we will—we have, you know, a number of them in our pipeline that will open up over the next 12 months. But we're also have a very concerted effort to identify and, you know, build out more of those. So and I know we've commented on this in the past, but we expect, you know, greenfield development and brownfield to be a higher portion of our mix of growth in the future years than it has been historically.

Gary Ho (Research Analyst)

Got it. And then just, maybe just last one. High level, just given the softer same-store sales growth environment, has that impacted the M&A valuation at all? Just whether that's single shop or, MSOs, by any chance? Just wanna get an update on that front.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

You know, I would hope that it does, but I I can't tell you that we've seen a material impact or change in that. But but I also think it takes time for sellers to adjust to a new market. But we'll, we'll certainly be disciplined in looking for opportunities to to pay fair valuations given the market environment.

Gary Ho (Research Analyst)

Okay, great. Those are my questions. Thank you.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Great. Thanks, Gary.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Bret Jordan with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Bret Jordan (Managing Director)

Hey, good morning, guys.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Morning, Bret.

Bret Jordan (Managing Director)

On the, I guess, consumer demand change, do you see that a lot of the deductibles have been increased to offset the higher insurance premiums, and maybe with a higher deductible, we've just taken out the low-end repair, or is it?

Tim O'Day (CEO)

You know, I, I didn't get that data this, this quarter, Bret, but I did get it last quarter. And while there has been a bit of a creep up in the, you know, deductibles, you know, $500 moving to $1,000, or moving to $2,500, it, it didn't look that significant. So I, I actually don't think that that's a primary driver of it. I think it's more likely that people are, either concerned about their jobs or concerned about the economy, or concerned about filing a claim and having higher insurance premiums even more than what they've had to absorb over the past 18 months.

Bret Jordan (Managing Director)

I guess on that same sort of trend then, do you see consumers coming in and getting an appraisal and then pocketing the check and not coming back for the repair?

Tim O'Day (CEO)

In talking with our teams in the stores, they are telling me that they're seeing more of that. They're also seeing more customers come in with, you know, repairs that are in excess of their deductibles and paying out of pocket to avoid having to file a claim.

Bret Jordan (Managing Director)

Okay.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Those are-

Bret Jordan (Managing Director)

I guess the question-

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Probably, you know, on the edge, but-

Bret Jordan (Managing Director)

Yeah. Okay. And then on alternative parts mix, you sort of called out things that were driving margin. What what's the dollar spend in alternative parts in an average repair now?

Tim O'Day (CEO)

We don't disclose that. CCC provides some data on that. Yeah. We've seen a meaningful increase in our mix of aftermarket use over the past, you know, quarter, year-over-year in the quarter. Some of that is driven by a large U.S. insurer that shifted their policy toward aftermarket parts or the use of aftermarket parts. Some of it is just our teams are getting even better at identifying and using parts to keep repair costs down for our customers.

Bret Jordan (Managing Director)

Great. Thank you.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Thanks, Bret.

Operator (participant)

Your next call... Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Zachary Evershed with National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Morning, Zach.

Zachary Evershed (Analyst)

Good morning, everyone. So as used vehicle prices come down, what do you think the worst case scenario is for spiking total loss rates, and how does that play out in Boyd's same-store sales growth and margins?

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Well, the higher total loss rates are definitely part of the drop in repairable appraisals. It probably accounts for, I think it was at 1.6 points of the 7-point drop in repairable appraisals, and that's directly tied to, you know, the the decline in used car values. So it certainly has an impact. It probably has an impact on our average cost of repair as well, because some of those would have been higher value repairs. You know, I would expect total loss rates, if you looked over a very long period of time, they've kind of crept up gradually. We've gone through a, a cycle of, you know, a significant downturn in total loss rates as used car values ramped up, and then, you know, ticking back up to pretty close to historical levels or pre-pandemic levels now, maybe even slightly above.

It's hard to predict, but I don't think total loss rates are going to move dramatically. And so I would expect it to continue to have a small gradual impact, but be offset by increase in miles driven and increase in claim cost.

Zachary Evershed (Analyst)

That's good color. Thanks. And then what's the impact on the network of Hurricane Debby thus far?

Tim O'Day (CEO)

You know, we haven't fully assessed it. I I can tell you that it wasn't as impactful from a flood standpoint, I'm told, as what many hurricanes are. There was probably more wind damage, which is, you know, it's probably better for us. You know, flood damage doesn't generate much work for the collision repair industry, but wind damage and trees and debris can impact it. So, yeah, I would expect it will have some favorable impact on the markets as it came through.

Zachary Evershed (Analyst)

Thank you very much. And then last one for me on Brian's expanded responsibilities. Tim, do you feel that frees up bandwidth for you to address other issues?

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Yeah, I think it does. It'll free up some time for me to focus on kind of our long-term strategic direction. One thing that I plan to spend a lot of time on is our One Company strategy, which is really important to us. And I also think that the way we're organizing ourselves, we're getting the right leadership in place to drive some things that will be very good for our business. We see, you know, synergy opportunities both with our auto glass business and our calibration business, and those are key areas that, as you know, we've spent a lot of time talking about over the past couple of years. We've made great progress, and I think we have more room to make progress in those areas, and this will allow us to do that.

Zachary Evershed (Analyst)

That's great. Thanks. I'll turn it over.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

Thanks, Zach.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn it back to Mr. Tim O'Day for closing remarks.

Tim O'Day (CEO)

All right. Thank you, everybody, for joining us on today's call. I appreciate your questions and your, your investment in Boyd, and, look forward to giving you an update when we report Q3 in November. Have a great day.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.