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BioAge Labs, Inc. (BIOA)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 was dominated by discontinuation of the STRIDES Phase 2 trial for azelaprag due to unexpected transaminitis, while BioAge accelerated and nominated BGE-102 (oral, brain‑penetrant NLRP3 inhibitor) with Phase 1 SAD data expected in 2H25 and MAD in 1H26 .
  • Full‑year 2024 operating expenses rose sharply (R&D $59.0M vs $33.9M YoY; G&A $19.2M vs $14.5M), and net loss increased to $71.1M; cash and cash equivalents ended the year at $354.3M, with runway projected through 2029 .
  • Strategic platform collaborations were signed: Novartis (up to $20M upfront/research funding and up to $530M milestones) and Lilly ExploR&D to discover two antibodies against BioAge’s metabolic aging targets .
  • Shares fell sharply on Dec 6–7, 2024 following the trial stop (from $20.09 to $4.65), setting the stock reaction backdrop heading into year‑end updates .
  • EPS missed Wall Street consensus in both Q3 and Q4 2024; Q3 actual $(6.70) vs consensus $(0.75)* and Q4 actual $(1.75) vs consensus $(0.66), implying estimate resets post‑trial cessation (consensus values via S&P Global).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Platform validation and business development: “New research collaborations with Novartis and Lilly further validate our platform’s potential to identify novel therapeutic targets,” with Novartis committed to up to $20M upfront/research and up to $530M milestones .
  • Pipeline pivot and acceleration: BioAge advanced BGE‑102, highlighting best‑in‑class potential (high potency and brain penetration) and accelerated timelines with first Phase 1 data expected in 2H25: “We have accelerated our clinical timelines for BGE‑102, with initial Phase 1 data expected by year’s end” .
  • Strengthened liquidity: Year‑end cash and cash equivalents of $354.3M support operations through 2029, providing multi‑year funding for the pivoted development plan .

What Went Wrong

  • STRIDES discontinuation: Azelaprag Phase 2 was halted in December 2024 after observing unexpected liver transaminitis; prior GLP tox and Phase 1 studies did not predict this risk .
  • Expense growth and widening losses: R&D and G&A escalated YoY due to STRIDES and manufacturing costs and stock‑based compensation, increasing net loss to $71.1M .
  • Market fallout: The discontinuation precipitated a sharp share price decline from $20.09 to $4.65, intensifying litigation headlines and investor scrutiny .

Financial Results

Quarterly and Year Overview

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$23.4 N/A (company reported FY only)
EPS ($USD, basic & diluted)$(6.70) $(1.75)*
Research & Development Expense ($USD Millions)$20.0 N/A (company reported FY only)
General & Administrative Expense ($USD Millions)$4.7 N/A (company reported FY only)
Cash and Cash Equivalents (End of Period, $USD Millions)$334.5 $354.3

Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Year-over-Year (FY 2024 vs FY 2023)

MetricFY 2023FY 2024YoY Change
Research & Development Expense ($USD Millions)$33.9 $59.0 +$25.1 (+74%)
General & Administrative Expense ($USD Millions)$14.5 $19.2 +$4.7 (+32%)
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$48.4 $78.2 +$29.8 (+62%)
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$63.9 $71.1 +$7.2 (+11%)
Net Loss per Share ($USD)$(38.17) $(6.63) EPS not comparable due to share count changes
Cash and Cash Equivalents (End of Period, $USD Millions)$21.6 $354.3 +$332.7 (IPO proceeds, partnerships)

Actual vs Consensus (Quarterly)

MetricQ3 2024 ActualQ3 2024 ConsensusQ4 2024 ActualQ4 2024 Consensus
EPS ($USD)$(6.70) $(0.75)*$(1.75)*$(0.66)*
Revenue ($USD Millions)N/A (no revenue line reported)$0.0*N/A (no revenue line reported)$0.0*

Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs and Capitalization

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)$334.5 $354.3
Common Shares Issued & Outstanding34,196,821 35,850,037
Weighted-Average Shares (Basic & Dilutive)3,494,580 10,726,521

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cash RunwayMulti-year“Into 2029” (post‑IPO) “Through 2029” Maintained/clarified
STRIDES (Azelaprag)Q3 2025Top‑line results anticipated Q3 2025 Discontinued Dec 2024 due to transaminitis Lowered/withdrawn
BGE‑102 (NLRP3 inhibitor)2H25 / 1H26Not previously disclosedPhase 1 SAD data 2H25; MAD data 1H26 New
Novartis collaborationMulti‑yearNot previously disclosedUp to $20M upfront/research; up to $530M milestones New
Lilly ExploR&D collaborationMulti‑yearNot previously disclosedTwo antibody discovery programs against metabolic aging targets New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

(Note: No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript available.)

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Obesity program (APJ agonists)STRIDES Phase 2 initiated; topline guided for Q3 2025 Azelaprag discontinued; focus on next‑gen APJ agonists Negative near‑term; pivot underway
NLRP3 (neuroinflammation)Preclinical portfolio mentioned BGE‑102 nominated; accelerated Phase 1 timelines Positive acceleration
Partnerships/platform validationCorporate pedigree (Chair appointment) Novartis and Lilly collaborations announced Positive external validation
Liquidity/runwayCash into 2029 (post‑IPO proceeds) Cash through 2029 (higher YE cash) Stable/strengthened
Litigation/market reactionN/APost‑trial stop, notable stock decline and class action announcements Overhang introduced

Management Commentary

  • “The fourth quarter of 2024 was marked by key strategic decisions and solid pipeline progress… we made the decision to discontinue [azelaprag]… we are advancing our development candidate BGE‑102… we have accelerated our clinical timelines… initial Phase 1 data expected by year’s end… new research collaborations with Novartis and Lilly further validate our platform’s potential…” — Kristen Fortney, Ph.D., CEO .
  • “The third quarter of 2024 was transformative… initiating our Phase 2 STRIDES trial… and completing our IPO… With our strong cash position… we are well‑equipped to advance our clinical programs and continue developing innovative therapies…” — Kristen Fortney, Ph.D., CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was found; therefore, no Q&A highlights or clarifications are available for this period [ListDocuments returned none].

Estimates Context

  • EPS missed in Q3 and Q4: Q3 2024 actual $(6.70) vs consensus $(0.75); Q4 2024 actual $(1.75) vs consensus $(0.66)*, reflecting sharp negative surprise tied to program discontinuation and cost ramp .
  • Revenue consensus was $0.0 in both quarters*, consistent with early‑stage biotech status and absence of reported revenue line in company materials .
  • Expect analysts to recalibrate near‑term R&D phasing, program timelines, and initiate valuation frameworks around BGE‑102 and partnerships rather than azelaprag.
    Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The azelaprag discontinuation is the principal negative catalyst; the stock’s sharp drop (to $4.65 from $20.09) underscores sentiment risk and potential for continued legal and overhang dynamics until a clear replacement thesis emerges .
  • Liquidity is a core strength (YE cash $354.3M; runway through 2029), enabling BioAge to fund the pivot and advance BGE‑102 without near‑term financing risk .
  • BGE‑102 timelines (SAD 2H25; MAD 1H26) provide defined clinical catalysts; investors should monitor Phase 1 readouts as a narrative pivot toward neuroinflammation‑driven metabolic pathology .
  • Platform collaborations with Novartis and Lilly add external validation and optionality (upfront/research and long‑term milestones), potentially de‑risking discovery and widening modality exposure .
  • Expect Street models to cut azelaprag‑related assumptions and shift to NLRP3/APJ next‑gen programs; near‑term EPS could remain volatile given R&D spend and trial initiation cadence .
  • For trading, headline risk around litigation continues; upside catalysts hinge on BGE‑102 Phase 1 progress and additional BD updates that may re‑rate platform value .
  • Medium‑term thesis: execution on NLRP3 clinical validation plus partner‑enabled target discovery can rebuild credibility and valuation, supported by the long runway and disciplined allocation of R&D to higher‑conviction programs .

Citations:

  • Q4 2024 8‑K and Exhibit 99.1:
  • Q3 2024 8‑K and Exhibit 99.1:
  • Stock reaction references (press releases):

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.