Executive Summary

Q4 2024 revenue of $55.9M decreased 22.4% YoY, landing within guidance ($53–$59M), while adjusted EBITDA loss of $19.2M came in better than guidance ($25–$21M) and slightly better than last year; gross margin fell to 31.3% on inventory adjustments, airfreight, and higher distributor mix .
Full-year 2024 revenue declined 25.3% to $189.8M, with gross margin improving 170 bps to 42.7% and net loss narrowing to $93.3M; cash was $66.7M with no revolver borrowings, and inventory was reduced 23.6% YoY to $44.1M .
2025 guidance calls for $175–$195M revenue (U.S. $145–$160M; International $30–$35M) and adjusted EBITDA loss of $65–$55M; management expects gross margin in the “mid-40s” for FY25 with Q1 pressure and a return to top-line growth in Q4 2025 .
Stock reaction catalysts: disciplined cost control, clean inventory and reduced promotions, heavier near-term marketing investment (Q1) to rebuild brand equity, and a fall ’25 product refresh; watch for progress on traffic and conversion as new content and site redesign roll out .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2024 beat guidance, coming in at a loss of $19.2M versus guidance loss of $25–$21M; management highlighted continued cost control and SG&A down 24% YoY ex-SBC and D&A .
- Clean inventory and reduced promotional intensity YoY supported margin discipline; Q4 inventory was $44.1M (−23.6% YoY) and full-year gross margin improved to 42.7% .
- Strategic progress: completed distributor transitions, closed underperforming U.S. stores, and launched premium brand content (“Cards On The Table” with Stanley Tucci) to rebuild awareness .
What Went Wrong
- Q4 gross margin compressed to 31.3% (−670 bps YoY) on inventory adjustments, stronger conversion on sale days, incremental airfreight, and higher distributor mix .
- Top line remained under pressure: Q4 revenue −22.4% YoY with distributor transitions and store closures representing structural headwinds; management guided FY25 revenue headwinds of $18–$23M from these actions .
- Near-term P&L pressure: elevated Q1 2025 marketing spend tied to the brand campaign implies adjusted EBITDA loss of $28–$25M for Q1 .

Financial Results

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$51.582	$42.996	$55.852
Gross Margin (%)	50.5%	44.4%	31.3%
Net Loss ($USD Millions)	$19.133	$21.177	$25.678
EPS ($USD)	$0.12	$2.68	$3.23
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$(13.733)	$(16.241)	$(19.182)
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	(26.6)%	(37.8)%	(34.3)%

YoY/Sequential reference points:

Revenue YoY change: Q2 −26.8% ; Q3 −24.9% ; Q4 −22.4% .
Gross margin YoY: Q2 +770 bps ; Q3 +90 bps ; Q4 −670 bps .
Net loss margin: Q2 (37.1)% ; Q3 (49.3)% ; Q4 (46.0)% .

Segment breakdown (Net Revenue):

Segment Revenue ($USD Millions)	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
United States	$36.627	$32.041	$45.970
International	$14.955	$10.955	$9.882
Total	$51.582	$42.996	$55.852

KPIs

KPI	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Inventory ($USD Millions)	$53.667	$57.459	$44.121
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)	$87.224	$78.627	$66.732
SG&A ($USD Millions)	$33.552	$30.967	$29.154
Marketing Expense ($USD Millions)	$11.739	$9.855	$12.284
Total Stores (Count)	43	34	33

Actual vs Guidance vs Estimates (Q4 2024)

Metric	Guidance (as of Q3)	Actual Q4 2024	Consensus (S&P Global)
Net Revenue ($USD Millions)	$53–$59	$55.852	Unavailable (SPGI request limit)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$(25)–$(21)	$(19.182)	Unavailable (SPGI request limit)
U.S. Revenue ($USD Millions)	$45–$49	$45.970	Unavailable (SPGI request limit)
International Revenue ($USD Millions)	$8–$10	$9.882	Unavailable (SPGI request limit)

Note: Wall Street consensus from S&P Global was unavailable due to request limits.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Net Revenue ($M)	FY 2024	$190–$210	$187–$193	Lowered
Gross Margin (%)	FY 2024	42–45%	43–46%	Raised
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	FY 2024	Loss $78–$63	Loss $75–$71	Narrowed/Improved
Net Revenue ($M)	Q4 2024	Initiated	$53–$59	Initiated
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	Q4 2024	Initiated	Loss $25–$21	Initiated
Net Revenue ($M)	FY 2025	—	$175–$195	New
U.S. Revenue ($M)	FY 2025	—	$145–$160	New
International Revenue ($M)	FY 2025	—	$30–$35	New
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	FY 2025	—	Loss $65–$55	New
Net Revenue ($M)	Q1 2025	—	$28–$33	New
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	Q1 2025	—	Loss $28–$25	New

Narrative guidance: Management expects FY25 gross margin in the “mid-40s” with Q1 pressure and ramp through the year .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Product pipeline	Focus on reigniting product; Fall ’25/Spring ’26 ground-up collections; early launches resonating (Wool Runner 2, Tree Runner Go, Canvas Piper)	More launches (Tree Glider, Lounger Lift, Tree Toppers, Lounger Mule) with positive response	Fall ’25 refreshed core lineup (updated Runner, court-inspired shoe, waterproof collection); broader range/colors	Building toward H2’25
Brand marketing (upper funnel)	Introduced “Allbirds by Nature” narrative; plan to increase marketing investment	OBB premium digital series; PR activations (Uber Eats Climate Collection, Marriott Bonvoy)	“Cards On The Table” content series with Stanley Tucci; Q1 heavy spend; strong initial engagement	Scaling content-led brand rebuild
Gross margin trajectory	Expansion from lower freight/promotions and healthier inventory; guide mid-40s for H2’24	Mid-40s for full year; Q4 pressure from distributor mix	FY25 “mid-40s”; Q1 notable pressure, ramping thereafter	Improving after Q1
Distribution & store actions	Transitioned targeted regions to distributors; closed 14 U.S. stores	Added Europe/LatAm distributors; 15 U.S. closures YTD	Structural headwinds ongoing (FY25 revenue −$18–$23M impact); U.S. closures continued	Structural reset largely complete
Macro/consumer	Freight manageable; pushing full-price strategy	Planning lower promos vs LY; holiday promotional moments	Macro choppy; guidance reflects conservatism; focus on traffic and high-LTV customers	Cautious near-term stance
Digital/Store experience	Enhancing in-store journey; future site/store improvements	Plan mid-2025 e-comm and store revamp	Redesigned website targeted for H2’25; prototype store concept rolling out	Experience upgrade underway

Management Commentary

“We strengthened our operating model… reignited our product and marketing engines… expected to fuel improvement in trend in the second half of the year, including our return to top line growth in the fourth quarter [2025].” — CEO Joe Vernachio .
“Gross margin of 31.3%… impacts from inventory adjustments… incremental airfreight… highest mix of international distributor sales to date… these sales carry a lower gross margin… higher flow-through to the bottom line.” — CFO Annie Mitchell .
“As you think about our gross margin profile, we expect… mid-40s [FY25]… notable pressure in Q1… margin to ramp throughout the year as our second half product has been designed with better margins.” — CFO Annie Mitchell .
“Cards on the table… collaboration with Stanley Tucci… initial results… organic social reach exceeded 5 million; earned media potential reach over 1 billion.” — CEO Joe Vernachio ; series details .

Q&A Highlights

Confidence in Q4 2025 growth driven by cumulative impact of product engine, brand content, site/store experience; macro caution embedded in Q1 guidance .
KPIs emphasized: traffic growth, predictive LTV, full-price first and second purchases, and conversion metrics; focus on high-value customer acquisition .
Phasing: New product drops begin in Q3 ’25 with full line in Q4; structural impacts from store closures and EU distributor transition explain cadence .
Management acknowledged choppy consumer environment but sees early offset from upper-funnel marketing; conservatism incorporated into near-term guide .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus estimates from S&P Global were unavailable due to request limits at the time of retrieval; therefore, comparisons to consensus EPS/revenue could not be provided. Guidance and actuals comparisons are shown instead .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Near-term EBITDA pressure: Q1 2025 adjusted EBITDA loss guided to $(28)–$(25)M as upper-funnel brand investments peak; expect sequential improvement thereafter .
Margins should improve through FY25: management targets mid-40s gross margin for FY25, with Q1 pressure and ramp aligned to H2 product launches and lower freight/promos .
Clean inventory and lower promotions vs LY: supports margin quality but weighs on near-term unit volume; watch holiday-to-holiday comp normalization in Q4/Q1 .
Structural revenue headwinds persist: FY25 guide incorporates $18–$23M impact from distributor transitions and U.S. store closures; focus shifts to profitable growth and flow-through .
Brand rebuild is visible: premium content series (Stanley Tucci), OBB-produced long-form video, site/store redesigns—monitor traffic, awareness, and conversion KPIs for early traction .
Liquidity adequate: year-end cash $66.7M, no revolver drawings; inventory down 23.6% YoY; disciplined SG&A provides flexibility to fund turnaround investments .
Setup into H2’25: broader refreshed product line and marketing alignment aim to drive the return to top-line growth in Q4 2025; execution on traffic and full-price sell-through is the linchpin .

Allbirds, Inc. (BIRD)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary