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BJs RESTAURANTS INC (BJRI)·Q2 2026 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • As of Nov 20, 2025, BJ’s Restaurants’ Q2 2026 press release and call transcript are not yet available; consensus expects Q2 2026 EPS ~$0.92 and revenue ~$373.1M, implying modest growth vs FY25 trajectory and continued margin progress into 2026 (values retrieved from S&P Global).*
  • Q2 2025 delivered strong execution: revenue $365.6M (+4.5% YoY), diluted EPS $0.97 (+34.8% YoY), comps +2.9% on +3.3% traffic, and restaurant-level margin expanded 150 bps to 17.0%—management framed this as the most profitable quarter ever and raised the low end of FY25 earnings outlook .
  • Q3 2025 was softer but constructive: revenue $330.2M (+1.4% YoY), diluted EPS $0.02; comps +0.5% with traffic accelerating ~+3.5% late in the quarter; FY25 guidance reiterated with a higher share repurchase range—pizza refresh and remodels set up H2 momentum into 2026 .
  • Stock reaction catalysts into 2026: nationwide rollout of refreshed pizza platform, continued remodel program (EVOLVE prototype pilots), and operational initiatives (labor forecasting, training) aimed at sustaining traffic-driven comps and margin expansion .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Strong Q2 2025 operating execution: restaurant-level margin reached 17.0% (+150 bps YoY), adjusted EBITDA $42.1M (+16.6% YoY), underscoring improved efficiency and value-led traffic growth .
    • Management emphasized sustainable growth foundations: “We’re building for sustainable growth,” with EVOLVE prototype remodel pilots planned in 2026 and ongoing rollout of the pizza refresh to drive engagement and NPS .
    • Operational initiatives yielded lower cost of sales and labor leverage (accuracy in guest forecasting, “one BJ’s way” training), contributing to margin expansion and record guest satisfaction .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Q3 2025 topline and EPS miss vs forecasts: revenue $330.2M vs $335.6M expected; EPS $0.04 vs $0.06 expected, with diluted EPS reported at $0.02—early-quarter softness weighed on results before late-quarter traffic improvement .
    • Category/macro variability (holiday timing, weather, trade policy commentary) added uncertainty around short-term comps, prompting cautious positioning despite operational tailwinds .
    • Sequential profitability compression from Q2 to Q3 as seasonality and mix shifted, highlighting need for sustained execution of pizza platform, remodel cadence, and training to maintain margin trajectory into 2026 .

Financial Results

Note: Q2 2026 actuals not yet reported; S&P Global consensus shown with asterisk and “Values retrieved from S&P Global.”*

MetricQ2 2025 (Actual)Q3 2025 (Actual)Q4 2025 (Consensus)*Q1 2026 (Consensus)*Q2 2026 (Consensus)*
Revenue ($USD Millions)$365.6 $330.2 $353.7$357.1$373.1
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.97 $0.02 $0.63$0.63$0.92
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$42.1 $21.1 $37.0$37.0$42.4
Restaurant-Level Operating Margin (%)17.0% 12.5% N/AN/AN/A

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

KPIs

KPIQ2 2025Q3 2025
Comparable Sales Growth (%)+2.9% +0.5%
Traffic Growth (%)+3.3% ~+3.5% last six weeks

Segment breakdown: Not applicable—BJ’s reports consolidated restaurant operations .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Comparable Restaurant Sales GrowthFY 20252–3% ~2% Lowered midpoint
Restaurant-Level Operating ProfitFY 2025$205–$215M $211–$219M Raised
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025$127–$137M $132–$140M Raised
Capital ExpendituresFY 2025$65–$75M $65–$75M Maintained
Share RepurchasesFY 2025$40–$50M $65–$80M (Board increased program in Oct) Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2025)Previous Mentions (Q3 2025)Current Period (Q2 2026)Trend
AI/Technology/Training“One BJ’s way” training; labor forecasting improved scheduling and reduced waste Training refresh rolling into Q1 2026 systemwide Not yet reportedBuilding operational consistency
Supply Chain/CommoditiesLower wing costs; higher beef/seafood; gross-to-net initiative improved CoS Stable operations; continued efficiency Not yet reportedModerating food inflation; disciplined CoS
Tariffs/MacroN/AGuidance framed with uncertainty incl. trade policy impacts Not yet reportedCautious macro posture
Product PerformancePizza refresh tests: higher sales/traffic/profitability; increased pizza incidence & NPS National rollout in Nov 2025; seasonal Pizookies Not yet reportedPositive product-led momentum
Regional TrendsPizza mix 5–10% (higher CA); tests show broad uplift Traffic outperformance vs casual dining benchmarks Not yet reportedImproving traffic breadth
Regulatory/LegalN/AN/AN/AStable
R&D/Culinary RoadmapCore platform renovation (pizza); EVOLVE prototype pilot in 2026 Seasonal pipeline; training revamp Not yet reportedPipeline building
Health FeaturesN/AN/AN/AN/A

Management Commentary

  • “We’re building for sustainable growth.” .
  • “I would expect the EVOLVE design work to be piloted in market through remodels and NROs in 2026.” .
  • “Restaurant level cash flow margins of 17% and adjusted EBITDA margins of 11.5% represent year on year improvements of one hundred and fifty and one hundred and twenty basis points respectively.” .
  • On pizza tests: “We’ve seen sales up, traffic up, and profitability up… significant movement in pizza incidents and improvement in NPS.” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Margin drivers: guest-count forecasting improved labor scheduling and product planning; cost of sales and hourly labor % reduced while guest satisfaction hit records .
  • Pizza refresh: tests indicated higher sales, traffic, and profitability; stronger pizza incidence and NPS—national rollout planned with ongoing innovation .
  • Training/operations: commitment to “one BJ’s way” to standardize execution; manager role modeling critical to sustain hospitality scores .
  • Capital allocation: active repurchases in Q2/Q3 2025; Board expanded authorization in October, increasing FY25 buyback range .

Estimates Context

Consensus (S&P Global) indicates Q2 2026 EPS ~$0.92, revenue ~$373.1M, and EBITDA ~$42.4M, with 7–9 covering analysts; target price consensus ~$38.88 (8 estimates). Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

MetricQ4 2025 (Consensus)*Q1 2026 (Consensus)*Q2 2026 (Consensus)*
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)0.630.630.92
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)353.7357.1373.1
EBITDA Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)37.037.042.4
Primary EPS – # of Estimates988
Revenue – # of Estimates977
Target Price Consensus Mean ($)38.8838.8838.88
Target Price – # of Estimates888

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Implications: Versus Q2 2025 actuals, consensus implies low-single-digit revenue growth and EPS normalization from Q3 seasonality toward Q2-type profitability, contingent on execution of product and operational initiatives .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Operating momentum: Q2 2025 marked a high-water mark for margins and EPS; late-Q3 traffic acceleration supports a constructive setup into 2026 as pizza refresh and training scale .
  • Product catalyst: the refreshed pizza platform and seasonal innovation have demonstrated tangible uplift in tests (sales, traffic, profitability)—critical to sustaining comps and check growth into 2026 .
  • Execution focus: continued gains rely on labor forecasting, standardized training, and remodels (EVOLVE pilots) to deepen margin durability and guest experience .
  • Capital returns: buyback authorization increased in Oct 2025; repurchases support EPS leverage while maintaining CapEx for remodels and selective new units .
  • Estimates lens: S&P Global consensus expects Q2 2026 EPS near $0.92 on revenue ~$373M—watch for beats/misses tied to pizza execution, traffic conversion, and cost cadence (wings/beef/seafood). Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Trading angle (short term): momentum events—national pizza rollout, holiday-season traffic comps, and any guidance updates—are likely stock movers; monitor comps/traffic commentary and margin cadence on calls .
  • Thesis (medium term): sustained product-led engagement plus operational rigor can drive EPS compounding and FCF for balanced growth/returns; execution consistency is the key variable into 2026 .

Note: Q2 2026 8-K press release and earnings call transcript are not yet available as of Nov 20, 2025; this recap anchors on recent reported quarters and S&P Global consensus for forward comparisons.