Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
- Strong growth in the Wove platform, with expected incremental revenue of $60 million to $70 million in 2025 and 36 clients on the platform with 41 signed contracts, indicating successful expansion in digital offerings.
- Pershing business showing strong momentum, expecting to grow net new assets at mid-single digits through the cycle, tapping into the fast-growing U.S. wealth market with $3 trillion worth of wealth assets.
- Maintaining leadership in Asset Servicing, with continued momentum, investments in infrastructure, and expectation to maintain its position as the world's largest custodian, suggesting ability to navigate market challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
---|---|---|
Total Revenue | 12% increase (from $4,311M to $4,847M) | BK’s total revenue increased by approximately 12% YoY, reflecting stronger overall performance driven by improved market dynamics and successful company initiatives compared to the prior period. |
Securities Services Total Revenue | Shift from –$44M to $3,333M | An extraordinary recovery occurred in Securities Services, reversing a negative revenue position from –$44M in Q4 2023 to a robust $3,333M in Q4 2024, likely due to enhanced client activity and improved market values. |
Market & Wealth Services Total Revenue | 12% increase (from $4,311M to $4,836M) | Market & Wealth Services revenue grew by over 12% YoY, driven by higher market values and increased net new business, building on improvements relative to the previous quarter. |
Operating Income | Surge from $232M to $1,472M | Operating income saw a dramatic improvement, rising from $232M to $1,472M, reflecting improved revenue performance, operational efficiencies, and a rebound from the depressed levels of the previous period. |
Basic EPS | Increase from $0.23 to $1.55 | Basic EPS jumped significantly from $0.23 to $1.55, driven by the strong operating income recovery and improved profitability compared to the previous period. |
Depreciation & Amortization | Increase from $14M to $1,766M | Depreciation & Amortization surged sharply, indicating major non‐cash adjustments likely due to significant asset revaluation, capital reclassifications or changes in accounting treatment relative to the prior period. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Net Interest Income (NII) | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | mid-single-digit % YoY growth | no prior guidance |
Fee Revenue | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | increases year-over-year | no prior guidance |
Expenses | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | up 1%–2% year-over-year | no prior guidance |
Non-Interest-Bearing Deposits | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $44B–$46B | no prior guidance |
Incremental Revenue from Wove | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $60M–$70M | no prior guidance |
Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
---|---|---|---|---|
Pretax Margin | Q4 2024 | 33% | 30% (1,472/ 4,847) | Missed |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
---|---|---|---|
Wove platform | Consistently highlighted as key to Pershing growth; strong client demand, on track for $30-40M in 2024. Mentioned as evolving from workflow tool to broader wealth-tech platform. | Seen as a major growth driver, with revenue guidance raised to $60-70M in 2025 and 36 clients on the platform. | Continuing, sentiment increasingly positive |
Pershing business | Mixed in earlier quarters: negative net new assets at times due to lost clients, but improving post-deconversion. Focus on billion-dollar-plus RIAs, ongoing realignment for growth. | Strong momentum, 30% YoY sales increase in multi-product deals, $41B net new assets; integral to BNY’s strategy. | Continued growth emphasis |
Asset Servicing | Positive growth each quarter (5%/4%/8%), with consistent ETF servicing expansion. Clients consolidating providers, BNY seen as competitive. | 7% YoY fee growth, broad-based momentum, ETF and alternatives among bright spots. | Ongoing strength, consistent positivity |
ETF servicing | Rapid growth across periods ($2.7T in Q3, over $2T in Q2/Q1), cited as a secular trend and key offering. | AUCA at $2.8T, up 60% YoY, inflows outpacing market, validating multi-year investments. | Strong expansion, crucial focus |
Investment & Wealth Mgmt margins | Margins have fluctuated: 21% (Q3), improved 200 bps YoY in Q2, lower at ~13% in Q1. Emphasis on controlling expenses and driving profitability. | 20% pretax margin, with revenue up 29% and expenses up 2%. | Improving but varies by quarter |
Net Interest Income (NII) | Mixed trends: +3% YoY in Q3, -6% YoY in Q2, -8% YoY in Q1. Repositioning balance sheet to manage rate changes. 2025 NII expected to grow mid-single digits. | $1.2B, +8% YoY, driven by reinvestments at higher yields despite deposit margin compression. | Turned positive YoY, cautious optimism |
Noninterest-bearing deposits | Declined in Q3 (-2%), expected to “grind lower” in Q2, down 5% in Q1 as clients moved to higher yields. | Up 7%, with an outlook of $44-46B in 2025. | Rebound after decline |
Clearance & collateral management | Consistently a growth driver: +16% (Q3), +15% (Q2), +13% (Q1). Realignment from Pershing has created a global clearing platform. | Benefited from strong U.S. Treasury issuance and trading, 13% fee increase. Expanding global collateral platform. | Stable growth, high client activity |
Operating model transformation | Discussed each quarter as part of the ONE BNY strategy, with waves of employee transitions. AI integration highlighted in Q3. Emphasis on improved client delivery and culture. | 25% transitioned by end of 2024, heading to 80% by end of 2025, aiming for efficiency and cross-collaboration. | Ongoing, significant future impact |
Geopolitical tensions | Cited as a tail risk in Q3, mentioned in Q1 regarding Middle East conflicts, not discussed in Q2. | Acknowledged as a key risk, with conflicts on multiple continents adding uncertainty. | Recurrent, heightening awareness |
Potential recession | Indirectly mentioned as a possible slowdown in Q3. No direct discussion in Q2 or Q1. | Seen as a risk but “not around the corner,” balancing higher rates and macro complexity. | Cautious watch, not explicitly predicted |
Higher interest rates | Discussed frequently, with repointing of portfolio. Mixed deposit trends, net tailwind for securities yields. | Viewed as creating market complexity, but supportive of reinvestment yields. NII partly offset by deposit costs. | Consistent theme, both risk and benefit |
-
Platform Model's Impact on Margins
Q: Will the platform model improve margins and fee growth?
A: Management is confident that the platform operating model will drive incremental top-line growth, enhance fee revenue resiliency, and improve efficiency. They expect to sustainably hit pretax margin and ROE targets through the cycle, with more significant benefits materializing in 2026 and beyond as 80% of employees transition to the model by end of 2025. -
Fee Operating Leverage Focus
Q: How important is fee operating leverage to the firm?
A: While total operating leverage is the "north star," management is also focused on delivering positive fee operating leverage through the cycle. They have multiple levers, including managing NII, fees, and expenses, and feel they have flexibility to ensure positive outcomes even if the fee outlook falls short. -
Net Interest Income Outlook
Q: What are the NII expectations and deposit mix shifts?
A: Management expects net interest income to grow at mid-single digits in 2025, driven by proactive balance sheet management on the asset side, including rolling over 2% yielding assets into current market rates. They anticipate non-interest-bearing deposits (NIBs) to moderate to $44‑46 billion for the full year, with balances expected to be roughly flat. -
Growth in Pershing and Wove
Q: What's driving net new assets at Pershing and progress on Wove?
A: Pershing saw a solid rebound in net new assets, aiming for mid-single-digit growth through the cycle. Growth is driven by large RIA firms and broker-dealers, with 36 clients on the Wove platform and 41 signed contracts. They have guided for incremental Wove revenue of $60‑70 million in 2025, up from a $75 million exit rate in 2024. -
Risks to Business Outlook
Q: What primary risks is management monitoring?
A: Management is monitoring risks including geopolitical tensions, potential downturns or recessions, higher interest rates, and cyber risk. They mention wars in two continents, policy uncertainties, and the impact of higher rates as factors that could create complexity. Despite these risks, they remain pro-growth and believe their platforms position them to help clients navigate uncertainties. -
Impact of Trading Volatility on Fees
Q: How does increased trading volatility affect fee revenue growth?
A: Increased trading volatility benefits businesses like Clearance and Collateral Management, resulting in higher transaction volumes and fees. Treasury issuance has been a significant tailwind, setting records in transaction volumes and positively impacting servicing fee revenue growth over the past couple of years.