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Baker Hughes Co (BKR)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 delivered record quarterly revenue and free cash flow with revenue of $7.36B (+8% YoY, +7% QoQ), adjusted EPS of $0.70 (+37% YoY), and adjusted EBITDA of $1.31B (+20% YoY); consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin reached a record 17.8% .
- IET outperformed with revenue up 21% YoY and EBITDA margin of 18.3%, while OFSE was modestly softer (-2% YoY) but maintained high-teen margins (19.5%) .
- Management raised the quarterly dividend by 10% to $0.23 and guided FY 2025 revenue of ~$27.75B and EBITDA of ~$4.95B; Q1 2025 revenue guided to ~$6.5B and EBITDA to ~$1.02B .
- Strategic awards in LNG and gas infrastructure (Venture Global, Woodside Louisiana LNG, Jafurah Phase 3) underpin backlog quality and service attachment rates, supporting multi-year earnings durability .
- Street consensus from S&P Global for Q4 2024 was unavailable; relative beat/miss cannot be assessed. EPS benefited from a sizable U.S. deferred tax valuation allowance release and equity mark-to-market gains, partially offset by restructuring and inventory impairment charges .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record quarter: “setting new quarterly and annual records for revenue, free cash flow and our adjusted measures of EPS, EBITDA, and EBITDA margin” (CEO) .
- IET momentum: $3.8B orders in Q4 with strong LNG and gas infrastructure awards; “second highest order year ever” for IET at $13B (CEO) .
- Capital returns: Quarterly dividend increased 10% to $0.23; net debt/EBITDA 0.6x and liquidity $6.4B support continued buybacks and dividend growth (CFO) .
What Went Wrong
- OFSE softness: Revenue down 2% YoY and 2% QoQ; orders down sequentially; segment operating income and EBITDA slightly lower QoQ on volume (OFSE) .
- Non-GAAP exclusions mask GAAP noise: Restructuring ($281M) and inventory impairment ($73M) compressed GAAP operating income; non-operating mark-to-market and a large tax valuation allowance release boosted GAAP EPS (Q4) .
- Macro headwinds: Management expects global upstream spending to be down slightly in 2025; international OFS spending “flat to down” with soft activity in Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and the North Sea (CEO) .
Financial Results
Segment breakdown
KPIs and cash metrics
Estimates vs. Actuals (S&P Global consensus unavailable)
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “2024 proved to be a momentous year… setting new quarterly and annual records for revenue, free cash flow and our adjusted measures of EPS, EBITDA, and EBITDA margin… we expect 2025 to demonstrate another strong year of EBITDA growth, led by our IET segment.” (CEO) .
- “We generated strong free cash flow of $894 million during the quarter… free cash flow conversion rate of 49%, near the high end of our 45% to 50% target range.” (CEO) .
- “Our balance sheet remains strong… ending the fourth quarter with cash of $3.4 billion, net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.6x and liquidity of $6.4 billion… we announced a 10% [dividend] increase yesterday.” (CFO) .
- “We remain confident in achieving our 20% EBITDA margin targets for OFSE this year and IET in 2026.” (CEO) ; “Guidance implies 18% IET segment margin in 2025 working towards 20% in 2026.” (CFO) .
- “We are becoming less cyclical… will generate more durable earnings and free cash flow across cycles.” (CEO) .
Q&A Highlights
- IET orders outlook: Midpoint $13.5B in 2025; LNG orders expected to rebound; NovaLT turbines gaining traction with data centers; New Energy orders targeted at $1.4–$1.6B (CEO) .
- Gas turbine market: Anticipated doubling by 2030; non‑oil/gas applications in industrial power and data centers highlight broader opportunity (CEO) .
- OFSE 2025 mix: NA spending down mid-single-digits; international flat-to-down; OFSE revenue guided slightly lower but margin resilience from production‑weighted portfolio (CEO) .
- Margin targets: OFSE aiming for 20% in 2025; IET on path to 20% by 2026, driven by higher price backlog, productivity, digital offerings, and reduced R&D in CTS (CFO) .
- Capital returns: Anchor 60–80% FCF to shareholders via growing dividend and opportunistic buybacks; maintain flexibility for tuck-in M&A in New Energy and technology niches (CFO) .
- FCF conversion: Confident in 45–50% range; focus on working capital efficiency, cash taxes, and structurally higher margins (CFO) .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 EPS, revenue, and EBITDA was unavailable at the time of this analysis due to API request limits; as a result, a beat/miss assessment vs. Street is not provided. Management guided FY 2025 revenue (
$27.75B) and EBITDA ($4.95B), informing likely estimate recalibrations around IET strength and OFSE margin resilience .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- IET-led growth with high-quality backlog and rising service attachment rates positions Baker Hughes for multi-year EBITDA expansion; watch for LNG FIDs and gas infrastructure awards flow-through to 2025–2027 revenue .
- OFSE is structurally more resilient despite softer activity; margin expansion is driven by self-help and production-weighted mix—monitor transformation delivery vs. 20% 2025 target (CFO roadmap) .
- Strong FCF and balance sheet support continued dividend growth and buybacks; dividend raised to $0.23 signals management confidence in earnings durability .
- Near-term trading catalysts: Additional U.S. LNG permitting progress, Venture Global/Woodside project milestones, and incremental Jafurah execution updates may drive sentiment .
- EPS quality considerations: GAAP EPS uplift from tax valuation allowance release and equity gains; adjusted EPS provides cleaner operational view .
- 2025 macro setup: Expect uneven upstream spending; Baker’s portfolio breadth and IET momentum help offset cyclicality—track Q1 conversion of GTE backlog toward IET EBITDA ~$460M and company EBITDA ~$1.02B guide .
- Strategic narrative: Increasing exposure to data-center power and digital service solutions enhances secular growth optionality and pricing power (AI-driven demand for gas turbines, digital doubling by 2026) .