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BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue of $29.5M grew 22% YoY and beat S&P Global consensus ($27.2M); EPS of -$0.42 beat consensus (-$0.55), while EBITDA missed as adjusted EBITDA was -$0.6M versus consensus positive EBITDA expectations *.
  • Backlog rose 40% QoQ to $366M on $130M+ bookings; management cited 50% YoY backlog growth and strong sovereign demand, aided by a >$100M seven-year international contract and India agreements ($20M) .
  • Guidance maintained: FY25 revenue $125–$142M, adjusted EBITDA $14–$22M, capex $60–$70M; liquidity strengthened to $77.0M cash/restricted/short-term investments plus $39.2M unbilled contract assets ($32.4M expected in next 12 months) .
  • Catalysts: Gen-3 commissioning completed ahead of schedule; second Gen-3 shipping for Q2 launch; early access agreements signed with international defense customers; management expects early access revenue over summer and broader commercial availability by Q4 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • $130M+ Q1 bookings drove backlog to $366M; CEO emphasized strong global demand and pipeline expansion post Gen-3 demonstration (“generating significant demand and driving a growing sales pipeline worldwide”) .
  • Gen-3 performance exceeded expectations (up to NIIRS-6 quality) with industry-leading commissioning speed; second Gen-3 on track for Q2 launch, enabling a cadence toward eight satellites by early 2026 .
  • Liquidity improved: cash/restricted/short-term investments reached $77.0M, aided by a $32M prepayment and $39.2M unbilled contract assets ($32.4M to be billed in 12 months) .

What Went Wrong

  • Mix shift and one-time asset transfer raised cost of sales to 43% of revenue (vs. 29% YoY; 23% in Q4), reducing profitability; adjusted EBITDA fell to -$0.6M vs. +$1.4M in Q1 2024, largely from absorbing LeoStella overhead .
  • Imagery & analytics revenue declined sequentially; management flagged slower-than-expected Luno-related orders and timing variability, as customers anticipate Gen-3 .
  • Professional services revenue may step down in Q2 following Q1 catch-up related to hardware transfers, implying near-term revenue variability despite strong FY outlook .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$22.549 $30.370 $29.544
Net Loss per Share ($)-$0.66 -$1.01 -$0.42
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$0.741 $7.375 -$0.617
Cost of Sales (% of Revenue)29% 23% 43%

Segment revenue breakdown:

Segment Revenue ($USD Millions)Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Imagery & Software Analytical Services$17.276 $17.484 $16.829
Professional & Engineering Services$5.273 $12.886 $12.715

Key KPIs and balance sheet items:

KPI / BalanceQ4 2024Q1 2025
Backlog ($USD Millions)$261 $366
New Contract Bookings ($USD Millions)—$130+
Cash + Restricted + Short-term Investments ($USD Millions)$53.8 $77.0
Contract Assets ($USD Millions)$27.852 $32.431
Unbilled Contract Assets ($USD Millions)$27.9 expected receipts next 12 months $39.2 total; $32.4 expected in 12 months
Capital Expenditures ($USD Millions)$9.5 (Q4) $8.9 (Q1)

Drivers and commentary:

  • YoY revenue increase primarily from progress-to-date milestones under India EO program contracts; cost of sales rose due to transfer of a previously capitalized satellite asset for sale under a new customer contract in India .
  • Adjusted EBITDA decline driven by absorption of LeoStella overhead and higher SG&A post acquisition; CFO noted EBITDA would have been ~+$2M under the prior vendor structure .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY 2025$125–$142M $125–$142M Maintained
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025$14–$22M $14–$22M Maintained
Capital ExpendituresFY 2025$60–$70M $60–$70M Maintained

Management color: revenue ramp expected more in H2 as Gen-3 capacity scales; minimum viable Gen-3 offering targeted at ~4 satellites; Q2 professional services may step down after Q1 catch-up .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024)Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
AI/technology initiativesLuno A win (up to $290M) driven by AI analytics; OISL R&D for low-latency delivery Gen-3 delivers 35cm imagery; AI-enabled insights; OISL to be integrated in future tranche Gen-3 imagery/AI exceeding expectations; automated detection at massive scale (25k vehicles, 700 vessels) Strengthening
Supply chain/productionLeoStella stake acquisition to vertically integrate Gen-3 production Capex plan consistent; multiple Gen-3 units in production; vendor financing for launches Second Gen-3 shipping for Q2 launch; cadence through year Accelerating
Tariffs/macro/sovereign demandStrong gov’t demand; bookings near-record; multi-year awards (NASA $476M) EOCL extension into 2026; >$150M recent awards; 30% FY25 growth forecast Backlog +$104M QoQ; >$100M seven-year international contract; India multi-year deals; demand strong despite fluid geopolitics Robust
Product performanceFirst Gen-3 pre-ship testing; launch planned First Gen-3 launched; initial images within spec; five additional Gen-3 planned in 2025 Gen-3 fully commissioned ahead of schedule; NIIRS-6 quality; early access contracts signed Ahead of plan
Regulatory/legalLuno A IDIQ awarded; EOCL base subscription framework EOCL extension mid-2026; Luno to ramp via task orders EOCL base continues; layered subscriptions expected to step up with Gen-3 capacity Positive setup
R&D executionOISL design integration; non-Earth imaging product launch TACGEO expansion includes customer-owned Gen-3; optical links funded R&D Continued investments in next-gen tech via LeoStella; AI analytics maturity Ongoing

Management Commentary

  • “We’re excited that we won over $130 million in contract bookings and with the successful launch of Gen-3, we are generating significant demand and driving a growing sales pipeline worldwide.” — CEO Brian O’Toole .
  • “Our Gen-3 satellite is delivering imagery at a quality equivalent to much larger and more expensive 25‑centimeter class satellites… Attaining this class of image quality is a commercial first for a satellite of this size, cost and performance.” — CEO .
  • “Adjusted EBITDA… was a loss of $600,000… primarily due to higher SG&A expenses of $2.6M as we absorbed the first full quarter of overhead expenses from the recent LeoStella acquisition.” — CFO Henry Dubois .
  • “We ended the first quarter of 2025 with $77M of cash, restricted cash and short-term investments… together with about $20M in remaining vendor financing for several Gen-3 launches.” — CFO .
  • “We expect to begin providing early access to Gen-3 imagery and analytics services to major customers over the course of the summer with general commercial availability anticipated to begin by Q4.” — CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Macro/geopolitical impact: Demand remains strong globally; sovereign customers accelerating investments despite fluid geopolitics .
  • Backlog recognition: Near-term imagery & analytics revenue to step up into H2 2025; substantial post-2026 backlog visibility .
  • Mix/trajectory: Professional services likely to step back in Q2 after Q1 catch-up on hardware asset transfers; sequential variability expected .
  • Luno/EOCL ramp: Luno task orders starting; EOCL structured as layered subscription packages with step-ups as Gen-3 capacity comes online .
  • Cost outlook: SG&A reflects full-quarter LeoStella; CFO expects steady run-rate rather than growth, with capex guidance already incorporating integration .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus:

MetricConsensusActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD)$27.201M*$29.544M +$2.343M (+8.6%)*
Primary EPS ($)-$0.552*-$0.420 +$0.132 (beat)*
EBITDA ($USD)$1.548M*-$4.743M*-$6.291M (miss)*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Implications:

  • Revenue and EPS beats suggest resilient demand and effective execution on milestone contracts; however, EBITDA miss underscores near-term margin headwinds from LeoStella overhead and cost-of-sales impacts tied to asset transfers .
  • Estimate revisions likely skew modestly upward for revenue, downward for EBITDA/near-term margin until Gen-3 capacity ramps and mix shifts toward high-margin imagery & analytics .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue/EPS beat with guidance maintained; near-term margin pressure reflects transitory mix (India program milestones, asset transfer) and LeoStella overhead absorption, not demand weakness .
  • Backlog expansion (+$104M QoQ to $366M) and $130M+ bookings validate sovereign demand; early access agreements and EOCL layering provide visibility to H2/H4 step-ups as Gen-3 scales .
  • Expect Q2 professional services revenue to step down (timing), with H2 inflection driven by minimum viable Gen-3 constellation (~4 satellites) and broader commercial availability by Q4 .
  • Liquidity improved (cash/restricted/ST investments $77.0M; unbilled contract assets $39.2M) plus vendor financing supports capex cadence and reduces funding risk to reach baseline 12 Gen-3 satellites .
  • Strategic vertical integration (LeoStella) should enhance unit economics and schedule control over time; near-term EBITDA optics are impacted but expected to normalize with operating efficiencies .
  • The narrative is moving toward AI-enabled, real-time intelligence at scale; Gen-3 NIIRS-6 quality and automated analytics are differentiators that can expand ACV and cross-sell opportunities .
  • Trading setup: momentum catalysts from Q2 launch, summer early access monetization, and Q4 commercial availability; focus on mix normalization, imagery & analytics growth trajectory, and margins as satellites come online .

References:
Press release and 8-K: .
Q1 2025 earnings call: .
Other relevant PRs: .
Prior quarters: Q4 2024 PR/call ; Q3 2024 PR/call .