Sign in
BT

BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue was $30.4M, down 14% year over year on a tough comparison (Q4’23 included a $7M Indonesian contract benefit); Adjusted EBITDA was $7.4M, with cost of sales improving to 23% of revenue, highlighting operating leverage even as mix shifted toward milestone services .
  • BlackSky launched its first Gen-3 (35cm) satellite on Feb 18 and began imaging within five days, with image quality “exceeding customer expectations”; management plans a regular cadence of Gen-3 launches with at least eight Gen-3 satellites in the next 12 months and five more in 2025, positioning 2025 as an inflection year .
  • Backlog rose from $261M at 12/31/24 to about $390M after early-2025 awards; management expects roughly $100M of this backlog to be realized in 2025, supporting revenue guidance of $125–$142M (+30% y/y at the midpoint) and Adjusted EBITDA of $14–$22M .
  • Liquidity improved with $53.8M in cash/restricted cash/short-term investments at year-end, plus a $32M prepayment in Q1’25 and ~$27.9M of expected milestone receipts over 12 months; capex guided to $60–$70M in 2025 to scale Gen-3 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Gen-3 technical execution: “within 5 days of launch our new Gen-3 satellite is already exceeding customer expectations for initial very-high resolution image quality,” enabling AI-derived insights and a regular cadence of launches .
    • Demand traction and visibility: New multi-year awards included a >$100M seven-year international subscription (with $32M prepayment) and multi-year India contracts (combined eight-figure), lifting backlog to ~$390M .
    • Structural leverage: Q4 cost of sales improved to 23% (from 34% in Q4’23) and FY24 Adjusted EBITDA turned positive ($11.6M vs. $(1.0)M), underscoring scalability of the software-led imagery model .

  • What Went Wrong

    • YoY revenue decline: Q4 revenue fell 14% to $30.4M due to a difficult comp (Q4’23 Indonesian one-time ~$7M) and timing of milestone-based professional services; imagery revenue dipped $1.6M y/y on prior-year pull-forward .
    • Net loss widened: Q4 net loss increased to $(19.2)M from $(3.8)M, primarily driven by non-cash derivative losses tied to equity warrants and stock price movements .
    • Imagery mix softness and program transition: Management cited the transition from NGA EIM to Luno as the largest impact to imagery and analytics growth, with Luno expected to ramp through 1H’25 .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Revenue ($M)$35.508 $24.938 $22.549 $30.370
Imagery & Software Analytical Services Revenue ($M)$19.039 $17.469 $17.276 $17.484
Professional & Engineering Services Revenue ($M)$16.469 $7.469 $5.273 $12.886
Net Loss per Share (GAAP)$(0.21) $(0.06) $(0.66) $(1.01)
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$9.299 $2.145 $0.741 $7.375
Total Cost of Sales (% of Revenue)34% 28% 29% 23%
Operating Expenses ($M)$28.142 $29.777 $29.129 $29.593

Segment breakdown (revenue):

  • Imagery & software analytical services: $17.5M in Q4’24 (vs. $17.3M Q3’24; $19.0M Q4’23) .
  • Professional & engineering services: $12.9M in Q4’24 (vs. $5.3M Q3’24; $16.5M Q4’23), with milestone timing driving variability .

Key KPIs and balance sheet:

  • Backlog: $261M at 12/31/24; ~+$129M of awards early 2025 brought backlog to ~ $390M; about $100M expected to be realized in 2025 .
  • Liquidity: Cash, restricted cash and short-term investments $53.8M at 12/31/24; +$32M prepayment received Q1’25; ~$27.9M milestone receipts expected over next 12 months .
  • Capex: Q4’24 $9.5M; FY’24 $50.2M; 2025 guide $60–$70M for Gen-3 production and launches .
  • Debt: Long-term debt $105.736M at 12/31/24 .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($M)FY 2025N/A$125 – $142 New
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)FY 2025N/A$14 – $22 New
Capital Expenditures ($M)FY 2025N/A$60 – $70 New

Notes: No prior 2025 guidance was disclosed in earlier quarters; Q3’24 communication focused on FY’24 outlook .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024, Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Gen-3/VHR capabilityQ2: Finalizing Rocket Lab window; assembly/integration testing . Q3: First Gen-3 in final pre-ship testing; expects deployment cadence in 2025 .Launched Feb 18; imaging in 5 days; 35cm resolution, SWIR, improved agility/comm; at least 8 Gen-3 within 12 months; five more in 2025 .Accelerating execution and capacity build-out
EOCL/NGA and LunoQ3: Won NGA Luno B (up to $290M); EOCL Gen-2 subscriptions extended; NASA award up to $476M .EOCL Gen-2 extended into 2026; expects layered EOCL packages to step up as Gen-3 capacity comes online .Visibility improving; step-ups expected later in 2025
International expansionQ2: New/renewal awards, multiple six-figure subscriptions . Q3: International expansion including non-Earth imaging .New >$100M 7-year international subscription (incl. $32M prepay); multi-year India contracts (eight-figure) .Strengthening international pipeline
AI/analyticsQ2/Q3: AI-enabled analytic services highlighted .VHR enables “AI-derived insights at the speed of conflict”; AI value expected to rise with Gen-3 imagery .Product capability improving
Supply chain/tariffs/macroQ3: Financing and capital raise improved balance sheet .No expected tariff impact on Gen-3 BOM; monitoring regulatory/budget environment; new administration seen as supportive of commercial models .Stable near term
R&D execution (OISL)Q3: U.S. Navy research contract on OISL .OISL not on current Gen-3; being explored under funded R&D and likely in a future tranche .Roadmap clarity improving

Management Commentary

  • “Within 5 days of launch our new Gen-3 satellite is already exceeding customer expectations for initial very-high resolution image quality.” – CEO Brian O’Toole .
  • “We believe the on orbit costs of a Gen-3 satellite are between 10% to 15% of on orbit costs of recently launched satellites from legacy providers.” – CEO .
  • “We recently won a 7-year contract valued at over $100 million… [including] an upfront prepayment of $32 million.” – CEO .
  • “In 2024, we achieved our first full year of positive adjusted EBITDA.” – CFO Henry Dubois .
  • “Our backlog would stand at around $390 million… about $100 million… expected to be realized here in 2025.” – CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Imagery mix softness and outlook: Largest imagery impact in 2024 was transition from NGA EIM to Luno; as Luno ramps and Gen-3 capacity comes online, imagery growth should improve; professional services can be lumpy but tied to future subscription revenue .
  • Capex/launch cadence: 2025 capex of $60–$70M was the plan; target ~6 Gen-3 by YE’25, pulling two into early 2026; minimum viable offering ~4 satellites in early H2’25 supports 2H revenue ramp .
  • EOCL step-up mechanics: Revenues accrue via layered subscription packages (not per-satellite); step-up expected as Gen-3 capacity comes online later in 2025 .
  • LeoStella integration: Overhead moved from capex to opex with full ownership; management expects efficiencies and strategic benefits (supply chain control, roadmap) over time .
  • Pricing/capacity: Gen-3 increases value (VHR + SWIR + high cadence); customers locking in long-term capacity with prepayments and guaranteed minimums; price/mix evolves with capability .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus EPS and revenue estimates for Q4 2024 were not retrievable at this time due to SPGI daily request limits; therefore, comparisons to Street expectations are unavailable. If you want, I can re-query later for a full beat/miss analysis.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • 2025 is positioned as an inflection year: Gen-3 is live and ramping, with at least eight satellites targeted within 12 months and layered EOCL packages expected to step up as capacity comes online in 2H’25 .
  • Backlog and prepayments de-risk near-term revenue: ~$390M total backlog with ~$100M expected in 2025, plus a $32M prepayment and expected milestone receipts, support the 30% revenue growth guide .
  • Operating leverage remains intact: Cost of sales fell to 23% in Q4 and FY24 Adjusted EBITDA turned positive, underscoring scalability as imagery volumes grow .
  • Near-term noise persists: Q4 revenue declined y/y on a one-time Q4’23 comp and milestone timing; net loss widened on non-cash derivative impacts; expect continued quarterly variability until Gen-3 reaches minimum viable constellation in early H2 .
  • Investment focus on execution: 2025 capex of $60–$70M will fund constellation build-out; timely launch cadence and on-orbit performance are key catalysts for accelerated imagery growth and EOCL expansion .
  • Strategic positioning: VHR + high-frequency + AI at a fraction of legacy on-orbit costs is resonating with U.S. government and international customers, evidenced by multi-year subscription awards and expansions (NGA, NASA, DIU, India, major international) .

Additional Q4 2024 Facts and Context

  • Q4 revenue composition: Imagery & software $17.5M and professional & engineering $12.9M; imagery y/y decline reflected $2M pull-forward in 4Q’23; professional services y/y decline reflected ~$7M Indonesian progress in 4Q’23 .
  • Liquidity and leverage: Year-end cash/restricted/short-term investments $53.8M; long-term debt $105.7M .
  • Outlook reiterated: 2025 revenue $125–$142M, Adjusted EBITDA $14–$22M, capex $60–$70M .

Sources: BlackSky Q4 2024 8-K and press release (Mar 6, 2025) ; Q4 2024 earnings call transcript (Mar 6, 2025) ; Q3 2024 8-K/press release (Nov 7, 2024) ; Q2 2024 8-K/press release (Aug 8, 2024) ; additional press releases (Jan–Feb 2025) .