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Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Blue Bird delivered record Q4 and FY 2024 results: Q4 revenue $350.2M (+15.6% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $41.3M (11.8% margin), adjusted EPS $0.77; FY revenue $1.347B, adjusted EBITDA $182.9M (13.6% margin) .
  • Management raised FY 2025 guidance midpoint to $200M adjusted EBITDA (13.8% margin) on $1.4–$1.5B revenue; quarterly cadence shows back-half EV-driven step-up .
  • Mix shifted Q/Q as EV deliveries fell to 84 units (timing of EPA orders), compressing margins vs Q3 despite higher revenue; bus ASP flat at ~$131k on pricing offsetting lower EV mix .
  • Structural tailwinds and catalysts: $80M DOE grant underpinning capacity expansion to 14,000 units (one shift), strong backlog >4,800 units with ~630 EVs, continued pricing discipline (+$3,500/bus from Oct 1) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “We significantly improved volume and with high-margin units across all powertrains,” delivering best-ever Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $41M and record quarterly revenue of $350M .
  • Backlog and orders strong: FY-end backlog >4,800 units (~$735M) and EV backlog 630 units ($200M); net orders +16% YoY .
  • Pricing/rich mix supported ASP and profits: FY bus ASP +14% YoY (~+$17K); parts revenue hit $104M with >50% gross margin; “We are not a one-trick pony” across diesel, gasoline, propane, EV .

What Went Wrong

  • EV deliveries light in Q4 (84 units vs >200 in Q2/Q3) due to EPA order timing and infrastructure planning, driving Q/Q margin compression (gross margin to 17%) .
  • Labor inflation: new USW agreement fully impacted Q4, and run-rate costs at ~1% of revenue going forward, pressuring margins .
  • Onetime Q4 SG&A/engineering expenses ~$6M (bonuses, consulting) lifted opex; working capital elevated (receivables) from fleet/GSA shipments, though collections completed in FY25 Q1 .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$345.9 $333.4 $350.2
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.79 $0.85 $0.73
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$0.89 $0.91 $0.77
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$45.8 $48.2 $41.3
Gross Margin (%)18.4% 20.8% 17.0%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)13.2% 14.5% 11.8%
Unit Sales (units)2,254 2,151 2,466

Segment breakdown

SegmentQ3 2024Q4 2024
Bus Net Revenue ($USD Millions)$308 $323
Parts Revenue ($USD Millions)$25 $27

KPIs and operating metrics

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
EV Units Sold (units)210 204 84
Average Bus Revenue per Unit ($000s)$141 $143 $131
Backlog (units, period-end)~5,900 >5,200 >4,800
EV Backlog (units)~500 567 ~630

Estimate comparison

  • S&P Global consensus EPS and revenue for Q4 FY2024 were unavailable at time of analysis due to data access limits; beat/miss vs Street not determined. Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Revenue ($B)FY 2025$1.4–$1.5 $1.4–$1.5 Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)FY 2025$180–$200 (~13%) $190–$210 (13.6%–14.0%) Raised
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)FY 2025~13% 13.6%–14.0% Raised
Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($M)FY 2025N/A$40–$60 (includes ~$50M extraordinary CapEx) Initiated
Units (total)FY 20259,000–9,500 Midpoint 9,250 Clarified
EV Units (units)FY 20251,000–1,300 back-end loaded ~1,150, back-end loaded Narrowed
Quarterly cadence (Revenue/$M; Adj. EBITDA/$M)FY 2025N/AQ1: ~$300; $40–$45New
Q2: ~$350; $45–$50New
Q3: ~$400; $50–$60New
Q4: ~$400; $50–$60New
Price IncreaseEffective Oct 1, 2024N/A+$3,500 per bus New
Normal CapEx vs ExtraordinaryFY 2025N/ANormal ~$25M; Extraordinary ~$50M (DOE plant) New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024)Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
EV funding & timingRound 2 grants $965M; Round 3 rebates pending; orders begin but infrastructure gating; ~50+ orders from new round; deliveries through Dec 2025 Rounds 2 & 3 ~$1.9B; deliveries by Apr/Jun 2026; expect late-2024 order surge EPA Round 4 $965M; order deadline extensions; majority deliveries in H2 FY25; expect strong EV unit growth (1,150) Orders pushed right; clearer back-half delivery ramp
Supply chain constraintsSelect chassis components constraining industry; easing expected H2 Still fragile; easing into 2025; impacts Q4 EV timing Easing overall; some components improved; stable pricing Improving
Pricing actionsTwo increases (Oct, Mar) +$2,500 each; ASP up sharply ASP +13%; pricing ahead of costing curve New +$3,500/bus from Oct 1; competitive with win rates; customers receptive Continued discipline
Labor & costsEngineering spend ~1.5x YoY; inflation pressures USW CBA: ~1% of revenue run-rate; one-time bonus accruals USW full effect in Q4; gross margin +0.5pp YoY despite labor Cost headwind embedded
Capacity expansion (DOE grant)N/A$80M DOE grant; new 600k sqft Type D/EV facility; to 14k units DOE $80M grant terms and funding cadence; ~$50M FY25 extraordinary CapEx Executing
Parts business+6% Q/Q; strong demand from aging fleets +5% YoY; solid margins +6% YoY; gross margin contribution significant Steady growth
Alternative power mixAlt-fuel ~60%; EV 9% of sales Alt-fuel 59%; EV 9% Full-year alt-fuel 58%; EV 8%; EV bookings +30% YoY Mix resilient; EV ramp later

Management Commentary

  • “Revenue is vanity, profit is sanity, and cash is king.” Capital allocation includes investing in future manufacturing and returning value via buybacks ($10M completed; $50M authorized) while maintaining strong liquidity .
  • “We are not a one-trick pony… we make propane, gasoline, diesel, and electric, and we make a very good margin in all three” (on diversification and margin durability) .
  • Backlog and demand: “Firm order backlog… over 4,800 units… Net orders… 16% higher than last year… pricing and richer vehicle mix increased average bus selling price by 14%” .
  • EV outlook: Expect ~1,150 EV deliveries in FY25 (64% YoY growth), with majority in H2, supported by $1.9B EPA funding in play .

Q&A Highlights

  • EV economics and trajectory: EV price multiplier moving from ~3.0x diesel toward ~2.5x, with cost-down plans to maintain percentage margins as price declines; long-term EV viability not reliant on EPA after 2027 (state/local support also strong) .
  • Seasonality and quarterly guide: Q1 lowest weeks; sequential revenues/EBITDA ramp through Q4; normal CapEx ~$25M with ~$50M extraordinary for DOE project .
  • Productivity/throughput: Lean, materials flow and throughput improvements reduced build-to-delivery from >40 days to ~12–14, benefiting labor, working capital and cash .
  • Onetime expenses: ~$6M Q4 (bonus accruals, consulting) labeled non-recurring; parts growth targeted low-single-digits in FY25 .
  • EPA orders timing: Extensions granted (up to ~45 days) delaying late-2024 surge; expect surge by end of Q2 FY25 to support back-half deliveries .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus for Q4 FY2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable due to data access limits; therefore no definitive beat/miss vs Street can be stated. Management indicated Q4 adjusted EBITDA exceeded prior quarterly guidance ranges and FY results beat prior guidance across metrics .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Mix-driven Q/Q margin compression in Q4 was timing-related (EV deliveries deferred); structural FY margin expansion intact (13.6% FY adj. EBITDA margin) with pricing discipline and diversified powertrains .
  • FY25 setup favors back-half strength: quarterly guide and EV unit plan imply sequential improvement as EPA-funded orders convert and deliveries shift to H2 .
  • Capacity and scale expansion is funded: $80M DOE grant supports Type D/EV facility and single-shift capacity to ~14k units; expect ~$50M FY25 extraordinary CapEx .
  • Pricing power persists: +$3,500/bus effective Oct 1 with competitive win rates; backlog management (~2 quarters) aids margin and flexibility .
  • Balance sheet/liquidity strong: FY-end cash $128M; net cash >$30M; liquidity ~$271M (now >$300M mid-Nov) enabling growth and buybacks .
  • Policy backdrop constructive: EPA Round 4 ($965M) and Clean Heavy-Duty Vehicles program (~$650M for school buses) broaden funding; management views bipartisan support as durable .
  • Near-term watch items: EV order timing/infrastructure, USW labor cost run-rate, supplier inflation; management plans pricing to offset cost pressure and expects supply chain easing .