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Blade Air Mobility, Inc. (BLDE)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue grew 14.5% year over year to $54.4M, with Flight Margin expanding to 23.2% (+418 bps YoY); Adjusted EBITDA improved by $4.9M YoY to $(0.4)M and net loss narrowed to $(9.8)M from $(33.9)M YoY .
  • Medical segment delivered $36.4M revenue (+13.7% YoY) and Adjusted EBITDA of $5.5M, with margin above the 15% near‑term target; management cautions margins will be volatile in 1H25 due to elevated scheduled maintenance on owned aircraft .
  • Passenger segment revenue was $18.0M; excluding Canada (exited Aug’24), Short Distance revenue increased 17.7%; continued profitability improvements from Europe restructuring and schedule/pricing optimization .
  • 2025 guidance: revenue $245–$265M and “double‑digit” Adjusted EBITDA; Passenger revenue outlook raised to $90–$100M (from $85–$95M) while Medical growth expected to be flat-to-up in 1H then return to double‑digit growth in 2H .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “We are pleased to deliver our first full‑year of Adjusted EBITDA profitability” (+$17.8M YoY to $1.2M for FY24), with Q4 revenue excluding Canada +22.1% YoY and Flight Profit +39.7% YoY; “first step” toward compounding FCF and Adjusted EBITDA growth .
  • Medical Adjusted EBITDA +119.6% YoY to $5.5M; “Q4 was our first quarter with Medical segment Adjusted EBITDA margins above our 15% near‑term target” .
  • Early results post Europe restructuring “very encouraging” in winter ski season; TOPS ended the year with 6 contracted customers; owned fleet enabling wins with two new transplant centers expected to launch in April .

What Went Wrong

  • Sequential Medical revenue was ~flat (+1% vs Q3), below internal expectations due to softer industry transplant volumes; management expects 1H25 Medical topline could be flat or slightly down YoY (before re‑accelerating in 2H) .
  • Seats flown declined YoY (16,661 vs 17,977), reflecting intentional schedule optimization and the Canada exit; seat count wasn’t the focus as load factor/pricing improved Passenger margins .
  • Adjusted unallocated corporate expenses rose 12% YoY in Q4 due to timing of incentive comp and higher legal/pro fees; management expects a slight decline in 2025 .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$67.945 $74.877 $54.357
YoY Revenue Growth (%)11.4% 4.8% 14.5%
Gross Margin (%)16.7% 19.3% 16.6%
Flight Margin (%)24.1% 26.5% 23.2%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$0.958 $4.180 $(0.387)
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)1.4% 5.6% (0.7)%
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(11.326) $(1.954) $(9.793)
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($USD)$(0.15) $(0.03) N/A (not disclosed in Q4 8‑K)
  • Note on estimates: S&P Global consensus data was unavailable for BLDE at this time; therefore, comparison vs Wall Street consensus cannot be provided. Management did not cite specific consensus for Q4; in Q2, management stated they beat “every key metric” of sell‑side consensus .

Segment breakdown

Segment / ProductQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Passenger Revenue ($M)$29.604 $38.815 $17.969
Medical Revenue ($M)$38.341 $36.062 $36.388
Passenger Flight Margin (%)24.7% 31.8% 22.9%
Medical Flight Margin (%)23.6% 20.8% 23.3%
Passenger Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$0.782 $5.593 $(0.156)
Medical Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$5.524 $3.851 $5.502

KPIs and cash/FCF

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Seats Flown – All Passenger Flights44,037 45,977 16,661
Flight Profit ($M)$16.354 $19.837 $12.589
Adjusted SG&A ($M)$15.834 $16.169 $13.618
Cash and Short‑Term Investments ($M)$142.0 $136.3 $127.1
Free Cash Flow Before Aircraft Acquisitions ($M)$(8.479) $3.726 $(3.552)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Company Revenue ($M)FY 2025“Double‑digit year‑over‑year revenue growth” (Q2’24) $245–$265 Formal range introduced
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025“Double‑digit millions of Adjusted EBITDA” (Q3’24) “Double‑digit” Adjusted EBITDA Maintained (wording)
Passenger Revenue ($M)FY 2025$85–$95 $90–$100 Raised
Medical Rev. GrowthFY 2025Double‑digit (Q3’24) Flat to up in 1H, returning to double‑digit in 2H Phasing clarified (more cautious 1H)
Medical Adj. EBITDA MarginFY 2025~15% target (Q3’24) ~15% for year; may slip depending on maintenance timing Maintained with caveat
Capex (ex aircraft acquisitions)FY 2025N/A~$8M; ~$5M aircraft maintenance, weighted to 1H; $1–$2M capitalized software; remainder vehicles/leaseholds New detail
FCF before aircraft acquisitionsFY 2025Positive Positive (barring large nonrecurring) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Prior-2)Q3 2024 (Prior-1)Q4 2024 (Current)Trend
eVTOL timing & readinessEVA timeline optimism; ROI focus in Passenger; asset‑light platform for transition FAA guidelines, admin push; platform “stronger than ever” Middle East likely first (late ’25/’26); U.S. late ’27/’28; cohabitation phase; Blade’s infrastructure/passenger base as moat More realism on timing; strategy intact
Passenger optimizationPricing/add‑ons; airport average checkout ~$325; Canada exit decision; Europe growth Passenger EBITDA TTM positive; schedule/pricing driving +700 bps margin YoY Continued margin gains; load factor focus; intentional seat inventory reduction Improving profitability
Medical aircraft strategy7 of 8 aircraft closed; 30%+ ROIC; payback ~3 yrs 10 aircraft expected; owned fleet drives wins; sequential margin lumpiness 9 owned at YE’24; 10th in Feb; elevated 1H25 maintenance; margins >15% in Q4 Scaling with planned volatility
TOPS / OrganOx perfusionGround hubs expanded; TOPS emerging OrganOx alliance announced; devices prepositioned April launch phase‑1; case‑by‑case perfusion; prep for in‑flight pending approval Execution stepping up
NRP adoption (industry)N/ANRP volumes up ~3x YoY YTD (low single‑digit of cases) Continued positive commentary; OPO‑led NRP adoption growing Structural tailwind
Corporate costs & cashUnallocated opex control; buybacks, RSU withholding change; $142M cash/ST inv $136.3M cash/ST inv; tuck‑in ground acquisition $127.1M cash/ST inv; Q4 unallocated up YoY; 2025 slight decline expected Stable balance sheet; opex discipline

Management Commentary

  • “We are pleased to deliver our first full‑year of Adjusted EBITDA profitability… only the first step in our plan to generate multi‑year, compounding growth in Free Cash Flow and Adjusted EBITDA” — CEO Rob Wiesenthal .
  • “Q4 2024 was our first quarter with Medical Segment Adjusted EBITDA margins above our 15% near‑term target” — CFO Will Heyburn .
  • “Early results following our European restructuring have been very encouraging with strong year‑over‑year revenue growth and solid profitability improvement in the winter ski season to‑date” — President Melissa Tomkiel .
  • “We expect revenue in the range of $245–$265M and double‑digit adjusted EBITDA” — CFO Will Heyburn (2025 outlook) .
  • “Services like Blade Airport are key to accelerating and de‑risking our planned shift from helicopters to eVTOL” — CEO .
  • “We ended the quarter with no debt and $127.1M of cash and short‑term investments” — CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • eVTOL timing and ramp: CEO expects Middle East deployments late ’25/’26, U.S. late ’27/’28; initial models could be OEM‑operated or partner‑owned; cohabitation with helicopters initially .
  • Passenger schedule/SG&A: Continued savings from Canada exit and Europe restructuring; focus on high‑potential products (airport transfers), with low‑to‑mid single‑digit million Passenger EBITDA improvement in 2025 .
  • Europe profitability: “Pulled out several million dollars of hard cost”; strong ski season; summer is key for top line .
  • Medical maintenance cadence: Elevated scheduled maintenance in 1H25 (e.g., “four sets of engines” in 2025 vs typical two); impacts utilization and margins; improvement expected in 2H25 and 2026 .
  • New JFK–Downtown Manhattan heliport pilot with Skyports: Objective is demand/logistics data; no economic downside risk to Blade; potential to become meaningful over time .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for BLDE were unavailable at the time of this analysis; therefore, Q4 revenue/EPS/margin comparisons vs Wall Street expectations cannot be provided (management did not reference consensus figures for Q4) .
  • In Q2’24, management asserted they beat “every key metric of sell‑side… consensus” (directional color, not a substitute for S&P data) .
  • Near‑term revisions are likely focused on: Passenger revenue raised to $90–$100M for FY25; Medical margin phasing (below 15% in 1H25, averaging >15% in 2H25) and elevated maintenance capex .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q4 delivered strong YoY growth and margin expansion; Medical Adjusted EBITDA margin >15% was a significant milestone, but management flagged volatility in 1H25 due to scheduled maintenance downtime on the owned fleet .
  • Passenger profitability trajectory remains positive, driven by pricing/load factor optimization, Canada exit, and Europe restructuring; expect continued margin expansion in 2025 .
  • 2025 guidance implies conservative Medical phasing (flat-to-up 1H) and stronger 2H as new customers ramp and maintenance eases; monitor May Q1 update for visibility .
  • Capital allocation remains disciplined toward Medical aircraft/vehicles and tuck‑ins with attractive paybacks; 2025 capex ~$8M before aircraft acquisitions, with ~$5M maintenance weighted to 1H .
  • Strategic infrastructure and aggregated demand in New York (plus alliances like Skyports) strengthen Blade’s moat ahead of eVTOL; initial U.S. commercialization likely late ’27/’28, supporting a measured transition rather than a sudden pivot .
  • Liquidity is solid ($127.1M cash/ST investments, no debt), enabling continued investment and optionality through industry variability .
  • Near‑term trading: watch April JFK–Downtown pilot launch, Medical volumes/margin cadence in 1H25, and any updates on OrganOx and TOPS ramp; medium‑term thesis hinges on scaling Medical margins toward high‑teens and de‑risked eVTOL transition supported by Blade’s passenger base and terminals .
Sources: Company 8‑K Q4’24 press release and exhibits; Q4’24, Q3’24, Q2’24 earnings call transcripts; related press releases.

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