Sign in

You're signed outSign in or to get full access.

BB

Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 revenue was $1.002B (+0.3% YoY) with GAAP diluted EPS of $0.30 and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.33; adjusted diluted EPS from continuing operations was $0.32 and came in above guidance ($0.22–$0.27) due to better-than-expected comps and holidays at Carrabba’s and Fleming’s .
  • Versus Wall Street consensus (S&P Global), BLMN delivered a revenue beat ($1.002B vs $0.986B*) and an EPS beat ($0.33 vs $0.29*); EBITDA missed ($79.9M vs $83.7M*) as restaurant-level margins compressed on labor, commodity mix, health insurance, and higher insurance expense *.
  • FY 2025 guidance was cut: adjusted diluted EPS to $1.00–$1.10 (from $1.20–$1.40), diluted EPS to $0.80–$0.90, commodity inflation nudged up, and capital spending held to ~$190M; Q3 2025 outlook calls for an adjusted loss per share of ($0.15)–($0.10) and U.S. comps of (1%) to flat .
  • Strategy/tone: Management expanded Outback turnaround tests to 42 restaurants (service model, steak quality, menu/value) and highlighted technology adoption (85% TableMates payment, AI-assisted feedback); leadership changes added an incoming CFO and broader transformation bench .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Adjusted diluted EPS from continuing ops of $0.32 exceeded company guidance ($0.22–$0.27), supported by sequential U.S. traffic improvement and solid Mother’s/Father’s Day performance across brands .
  • Positive comparable sales at Carrabba’s (+3.9%) and Fleming’s (+3.8%), led by off-premises (catering) and experiential events; Outback traffic strengthened through the quarter on Aussie 3-course value .
  • Technology and ops progress: 85%+ of guests used TableMates, improving table turns by ~5–7 minutes, with AI tools helping managers address service gaps—“we are seeing traction in our simplification and consistent execution at Outback” .

What Went Wrong

  • Restaurant-level operating margin fell 200 bps YoY to 12.0%, pressured by labor inflation (~3.4%), commodity cost mix, higher operating/insurance costs, and health insurance; adjusted operating margin fell to 3.5% (–250 bps YoY) .
  • Combined U.S. comparable sales of (0.1)% with traffic down (2.0)% indicated continued share loss versus casual dining industry benchmarks (Black Box), with Bonefish comps at (5.8)% and traffic at (11.4)% .
  • Guidance cut and H2 headwinds: Added ~$6M tariff impact to H2, increased general liability reserves by $6–$8M, and added ~$3M investments for Outback tests; Q3 EPS guided to a loss, and Brazil equity-method impact anticipated to be negative $1–$2M in Q3 .

Financial Results

Quarterly Performance vs Prior Quarters

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Total Revenues ($USD Billions)$0.972 $1.050 $1.002
GAAP Operating Income Margin %1.7% 5.5% 3.0%
Adjusted Operating Income Margin %3.5% 6.1% 3.5%
Restaurant-level Operating Margin %12.4% 13.9% 12.0%
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$(0.93) $0.50 $0.30
Adjusted Diluted EPS (Total) ($)$0.38 $0.58 $0.33

Year-over-Year for Q2

MetricQ2 2024Q2 2025
Total Revenues ($USD Billions)$0.999 $1.002
GAAP Operating Income Margin %4.4% 3.0%
Adjusted Operating Income Margin %6.0% 3.5%
Restaurant-level Operating Margin %14.0% 12.0%
GAAP Diluted EPS (Continuing) ($)$0.28 $0.29
Adjusted Diluted EPS (Continuing) ($)$0.45 $0.32

Versus Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)

MetricQ2 2025 ConsensusQ2 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD Billions)$0.986*$1.002
Primary EPS ($)$0.29*$0.33
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$83.7*$79.9*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment Breakdown

SegmentQ2 2024 Revenues ($MM)Q2 2025 Revenues ($MM)Q2 2024 Income from Ops ($MM)Q2 2025 Income from Ops ($MM)
U.S. Segment$974.2 $985.8 $79.7 $68.5
International Franchise$9.4 $7.1 $9.1 $6.8
All Other Revenues$15.8 $9.5 (12.4) 0.8
Unallocated Corporate OpEx——(32.3) (46.4)
Total$999.4 $1,002.4 $44.1 $29.7

KPIs

KPIQ2 2025
Comparable Sales – Outback US(0.6)%
Comparable Sales – Carrabba’s US+3.9%
Comparable Sales – Bonefish US(5.8)%
Comparable Sales – Fleming’s US+3.8%
Combined US Traffic(2.0)%
Combined US Average Check+1.9%
Off-premises % of US Sales24% (Outback 26%; Carrabba’s 35%)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Diluted EPSFY 2025$1.08–$1.28 $0.80–$0.90 Lowered
Adjusted Diluted EPSFY 2025$1.20–$1.40 $1.00–$1.10 Lowered
Effective Income Tax RateFY 2025Close to 0% Negative Lowered
Commodity InflationFY 20252.5%–3.5% 3%–3.5% Raised lower bound
Labor InflationFY 20254%–5% ~4% Narrowed lower
Capital ExpendituresFY 2025$190M–$210M ~$190M Maintained low end
U.S. Comparable SalesQ3 2025—(1%) to Flat New
Adjusted Diluted EPSQ3 2025—($0.15)–($0.10) New
DividendNext Pay Date$0.15 per share (declared Apr 23, paid Jun 4) $0.15 per share (declared Jul 23, paid Sep 3) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024 and Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Technology/TableMates & AIZiosk rollout targeted by end of April; ~80% usage in tests; aiming for faster table turns 85%+ usage; table turns faster by ~5–7 minutes; AI tools used to triage service gaps Adoption improving
Outback Value/Aussie 3-courseCore everyday value approach replacing LTOs; limited Q1 impact; expect more in H2 Driving traffic uplift; ~2/3 of guests trade up to higher tiers; ~20% trade up desserts Positive traction
Tariffs/MacroTariff impact estimated 20–40 bps margin headwind; not in Q1 guide; choppy consumer ~$6M tariff cost included in H2 guide; cautious outlook persists More clarity; headwind booked
Insurance/LegalHigher insurance/legal expense cited in Q4 margins General liability reserves rising by $6–$8M in H2; insurance costs up ~50 bps Worsening costs
Supply Chain/CommoditiesCOGS inflation ~1.5% in Q1; beef contracts locked; commodities 2.5%–3.5% FY COGS inflation ~3.3% Q2; commodities 3%–3.5% FY; normalization expected H2 Cost normalization H2
Regional TrendsSofter areas (TX, FL, Southeast/Southwest) noted in Q1 No outliers; consistent across geographies in Q2 Stabilizing

Management Commentary

  • “Turnaround Outback is our highest priority… [Healy] will lead the strategic initiatives central to our turnaround efforts.”
  • “TableMates… have been completely rolled out at Outback… improving table turns by about five to seven minutes… [we] leverage AI tools to help managing partners efficiently address any service gaps.”
  • “We know we have three key areas… steak quality, service and value… [expanding] testing to a total of 42 restaurants… foundation for the Outback turnaround.”
  • “We are adjusting our adjusted diluted earnings per share range to be between $1 and $1.1… [including] approximately $6,000,000 tariff impact… $6–$8M general liability reserves… ~$3,000,000 in investments in quality, service and value.”
  • “Our priorities remain reinvesting back into our restaurants, reducing our debt leverage… and returning capital to our shareholders… committed to… below a three times lease adjusted net leverage ratio.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Outback service model: Testing a shift from 1:6 to 1:4 server-to-table ratio, reallocating labor (not a major net investment) to improve consistency and speed of service .
  • Aussie 3-course dynamics: ~2/3 trading up to $17.99–$20.99 tiers; ~20% dessert trade-up; expect favorable laps in H2 to support momentum .
  • Remodel/asset condition: 10 Outback remodels in 2025 across three scopes; capital repurposed from new unit openings over coming years; focus on light-touch, higher-ROI refreshes .
  • Guidance clarifications: H2 includes ~$6M tariffs and $6–$8M liability reserves; Q3 adjusted EPS loss guided to ($0.15)–($0.10); Brazil equity-method headwind ~$1–$2M in Q3 .
  • Tone vs prior quarters: Still “early innings” of turnaround; progress but continued share loss; intensive testing and leadership presence in restaurants to drive consistency .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 delivered a revenue beat ($1.002B vs $0.986B*) and EPS beat ($0.33 vs $0.29*), while EBITDA missed ($79.9M vs $83.7M*), reflecting margin pressure from labor and insurance costs and negative product cost mix *.
  • FY 2025 consensus stands at revenue ~$3.956B* and EPS ~$1.12*, above the revised adjusted EPS guide ($1.00–$1.10), suggesting estimate downgrades are likely as analysts incorporate the added tariffs/reserves and Q3 loss outlook*.

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term setup: Revenue and EPS beats against consensus but a guided Q3 loss and lowered FY EPS likely cap upside until Outback traffic inflects; monitor H2 margin normalization and test results *.
  • Turnaround execution: Watch the 42-restaurant Outback test for evidence of sustained traffic lift and margin recapture from service model changes, steak spec upgrades, and everyday value .
  • Cost headwinds now embedded: Tariffs (~$6M) and liability reserves ($6–$8M) are in H2 guidance; an H2 commodity mix normalization is expected—track whether COGS/labor trends improve as indicated .
  • Capital allocation discipline: Capex held at $190M with remodel focus; dividend maintained at $0.15/share; next Brazil installment ($96M) targeted to pay down revolver—leverage progress toward <3x lease-adjusted target .
  • Brand divergence: Carrabba’s and Fleming’s show healthier comps; Bonefish remains pressured—expect portfolio actions and leadership changes (new Bonefish President) to target stabilization .
  • Operational KPIs: TableMates/AI adoption is a tangible operational win (faster turns); marketing shifts to efficient, “everyday value” should reduce non-working spend while supporting traffic .
  • Estimate risk: Consensus likely to drift toward the lowered FY guide; look for H2 comps trajectory, insurance cost trends, and tariff mitigation updates to gauge revision direction*.

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*