Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
- Strong performance and growth potential at Fleming's brand: Fleming's was the only segment that saw a comp acceleration in the quarter, indicating robust performance. Management attributes this to an elevated guest experience and believes there is capacity to open a few new Fleming's each year, suggesting potential for continued growth.
- Strategic partnership in Brazil provides capital and focus on core operations: Bloomin' Brands announced a strategic partnership with Vinci Partners for its Brazil operations, selling 67% ownership at an enterprise value of $2.06 billion Brazilian, retaining 33%. This transaction is expected to close by the end of the year and will allow the company to simplify and focus on domestic operations while benefiting from a royalty stream as the Brazil business continues to grow.
- Management's focus on operational improvements and enhancing guest experience: New CEO Michael Spanos is engaging with operators and focusing on simplifying the menu, improving the guest experience, and emphasizing value. This strategic focus aims to increase guest frequency and drive sustainable traffic growth, particularly at Outback Steakhouse, which could lead to improved sales and profitability. ,
- Management has lowered their full-year guidance, citing continued industry softness and their own performance, and acknowledging prior optimism was misplaced. This suggests potential challenges in achieving growth projections.
- Productivity gains are expected to be lower than historical levels, with management stating that the prior annual productivity target of $50 million is probably too high for where we are going forward, which could negatively impact margins.
- The company plans to take minimal pricing increases in the future to maintain value perception, despite ongoing cost pressures such as beef inflation remaining the most inflationary part of their basket, potentially squeezing margins if costs rise.
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Outback Steakhouse Strategy
Q: How will you address Outback's declining sales and traffic?
A: We acknowledge that Outback is experiencing declining same-store sales and traffic, losing share in the steak category. To address this, we're focusing on enhancing the guest experience by simplifying the menu and improving operational excellence. We're committed to creating a great meal and value in a fun, casual environment, returning to the core ethos of the brand. I'm personally very hands-on with Outback, accelerating strategic work to improve performance. -
Brazil Transaction Impact
Q: Can you provide details on the Brazil refranchising transaction?
A: We're selling two-thirds of our Brazil business for 2.06 billion Brazilian reais. We expect to close by the end of this calendar year and will receive royalties as the business continues to grow. We'll receive 52% of the proceeds at close and the remaining 48% a year later, with an option to sell the remaining one-third in 2028. This allows us to focus on our core domestic business while benefiting from growth in Brazil. -
Capital Allocation Plans
Q: How are you approaching capital allocation, including the dividend?
A: We're committed to reinvesting in our base business for sustainable growth. We're focused on paying down debt to achieve a lease-adjusted net leverage ratio of 3.0. Regarding the dividend, we recently approved one and are committed to it. We aim to be sharp in our investments and return cash to shareholders when appropriate. -
Menu Simplification and Value
Q: Will you simplify Outback's menu to improve guest experience?
A: Yes, we plan to simplify the menu to focus on our steak and seafood core. Our operators desire simplification in the back of the house, and fewer items executed consistently drive a better guest experience. We're also looking at simplifying the value and promotional equation to offer greater value to guests while making operations easier for our team members. -
Marketing Strategy
Q: How are you adjusting your marketing approach to drive traffic?
A: We're focusing on building brand trust by enhancing the guest experience. Retaining loyal guests and increasing their frequency is a priority. We aim to recruit new guests who appreciate our core offerings. Operational excellence is crucial to support any marketing efforts. Our marketing spend, weeks, and TRPs are flat year-over-year for Q3 and Q4. -
Productivity Initiatives
Q: What are your expectations for productivity savings moving forward?
A: While productivity remains key, the historical $50 million run rate is likely too high going forward. We see opportunities in technology-enabled efficiencies, supply chain improvements, and simplification. The magnitude may be less than before but still material, and we'll provide more details as we plan. -
Managing Partner Alignment
Q: How will you ensure you have the best managing partners?
A: We value aligned economic interests with our managing partners and will maintain the current model. They've expressed a desire for incentives that promote sales and profit growth. Retaining and engaging our top managing partners leads to a great guest experience. -
Store Closures and Asset Review
Q: Are more store closures expected in the domestic market?
A: We regularly review our assets for condition and quality. Before considering closures, we address issues within the four walls with our managing partners. If an asset doesn't meet guest experience standards, we consider remodels or relocations as part of our long-range planning. -
Fleming's Performance
Q: What is driving Fleming's comp acceleration?
A: Fleming's is performing well due to an elevated guest experience and strong execution by the team. They've focused on attentiveness, pace, and overall experience, making it a reputational brand in fine dining. We plan to thoughtfully expand Fleming's, adding 2 or 3 locations per year without sacrificing quality.