Banco Macro - Q1 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Banco Macro's 1Q 2023 earnings conference call. We would like to inform you that 1Q 2023 press release is available to download at the investor relations website of Banco Macro at www.macro.com.ar/relaciones-inversores/. Also, this event is being recorded and all participants will be in listen-only mode during the company's presentation. After the company's remarks are completed, there will be a question and answer session. At that time, further instructions will be given. Should any participant need assistance during this call, please press star then zero to signal the operator. It is now my pleasure to introduce our speakers. Joining us from Argentina are Mr. Gustavo Manriquez, Chief Executive Officer, and Mr. Jorge Scarinci, Chief Financial Officer, and Mr. Nicolas Torres, IR.

Now, I will turn the conference to Mr. Nicolas Torres. You may begin your conference.

Nicolas Torres (Investor Relations)

Thank you, Anthony. Good morning, and welcome to Banco Macro's 1st quarter 2023 conference call. Any comment we may make today may include forward-looking statements which are subject to various conditions, and these are outlined in our 20-F, which was filed to the SEC, and it's available at our website. 1st quarter 23 press release was distributed yesterday, and it's available at our website. All figures are in Argentine pesos and have been restated in terms of the measuring unit current at the end of the reporting period. As of the 1st quarter of 2020, the bank began reporting results applying hyperinflation accounting in accordance with IFRS IAS 29, as established by the Central Bank of Argentina. For ease of comparison, figures for previous quarters have been restated applying IAS 29 to reflect the accumulated effect of the inflation adjustment for each period through March 31st, 2023.

I will now briefly comment on the bank's first quarter 2023 financial results. Banco Macro's net income for the quarter was ARS 9.8 billion, 52% lower than the fourth quarter of 2022 and 20% lower than the result posted a year ago. The bank's first quarter 2023 ROE and ROA of 8.2% and 1.7% respectively remain healthy and show the bank's earnings potential. Net operating income before general, administrative, and personnel expenses for the first quarter of 2023 was ARS 167.8 billion, increasing 5% or ARS 8 billion quarter on quarter due to higher income from financial instruments at fair value to profit or loss and higher net fee income.

On a yearly basis, net operating income before general, administrative, and personnel expenses increased 28% or ARS 36.8 billion. In the first quarter of 2023, provision for loan losses totaled ARS 3.5 billion, 13% or ARS 397 million higher than in the previous quarter. On a yearly basis, provision for loan losses increased 129% or ARS 1.9 billion. Operating income after general, administrative, and personnel expenses were ARS 103.9 billion, 9% or ARS 8.8 billion higher than in the fourth quarter of 2022, and 39% or ARS 29.3 billion higher than in the first quarter of 2022.

In the quarter, net interest income totaled ARS 97.7 billion, 4% or ARS 4.1 billion lower than the result posted in the fourth quarter of 2022, and 14% or ARS 12 billion higher than the result posted one year ago. In the first quarter of 2023, interest income totaled ARS 228.6 billion, 5% or ARS 13 billion lower than in the fourth quarter of 2022. Due to lower income from government securities and it was 63% or ARS 88 billion higher than the previous year. Within interest income, interest and loans increased 2% or ARS 1.6 billion quarter-on-quarter due to a 304 basis point increase in the average lending rate.

On a yearly basis, income from interest on loans was 25% or ARS 17.3 billion higher. In the first quarter of 2023, interest on loans represented 38% of total interest income. Net income from government and private securities decreased 9% or ARS 13.1 billion quarter-over-quarter due to lower income from government securities. Compared to the first quarter of 2022, net income from government and private securities increased 91% or ARS 64.6 billion. In the first quarter of 2023, FX gains, including investment in derivative financing, totaled an ARS 36.7 billion gain due to the 18% Argentine peso depreciation against the U.S. dollars and the bank's long dollar position.

In the first quarter of 2023, interest expense totaled ARS 130.9 billion, a 6% or ARS 9 billion decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, and a 138 or ARS 75.9 billion higher than on a yearly basis. Within interest expenses, interest on deposits decreased 7% or ARS 10.1 billion quarter-on-quarter, mainly driven by a 14% decrease in the average volume of private sector deposits. While the average interest rate paid on deposits increased 537 basis points. On a yearly basis, interest on deposits increased 143% or ARS 75.1 billion. In the first quarter of 2023, interest on deposits represented 98% of the bank's financial expenses.

In the first quarter of 2023, the bank net interest margin, including FX, was 33.6% higher than the 32.7% posted in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the 22.8% registered in the first quarter of 2022. In the first quarter of 2023, net fee income totaled ARS 22 billion, 6% or ARS 1.3 billion higher than the fourth quarter of 2022. On a yearly basis, net fee income was 6% higher. In the first quarter of 2023, net income from financial assets and liabilities fair value to property or loss totaled at ARS 9.2 billion gain, mainly due to the mark to market of dual bonds. In the quarter, other operating income totaled ARS 5.7 billion, decreasing 18% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022.

On a yearly basis, other operating income decreased 16% or ARS 1.1 billion. In the first quarter of 2023, Banco Macro's personal administrative expenses totaled ARS 35.1 billion, 1% or ARS 424 million lower than the previous quarter due to lower administrative expenses, which were partially offset by higher employee benefits. On a yearly basis, personal administrative expenses increased 12% or ARS 3.8 billion. In the first quarter of 2023, the efficiency ratio reached 25.5%, improving from the 28.6% posted in the fourth quarter of 2022. In the first quarter of 2023, expenses decreased 1%, while net interest income plus net fee income, plus other operating income increased 6%.

In the first quarter of 2023, the result from the net monetary position totaled ARS 88.4 billion loss, which was 27% or ARS 19 billion higher than the loss posted in the fourth quarter of 2022, as a consequence of higher inflation observed in the quarter, which was 444 basis points above the level registered in the fourth quarter of 2022. Inflation was 21.7% and was up from 17.3% from the previous quarter. In the first quarter of 2023, Banco Macro's effective tax rate was 36.3%. Further information is provided in note 22 to our financial statements.

In terms of loan growth, the bank's financing to the private sector totaled ARS 694.5 billion, decreasing 4% or ARS 30.4 billion quarter-on-quarter and decreasing 8% or ARS 63.5 billion year-on-year. Within commercial loans, overdrafts stand out with a 10% or ARS 6.2 billion decrease quarter-on-quarter. On the consumer side, credit card loans decreased 7% or ARS 16.1 billion in the quarter, while personal loans and mortgages decreased 7%. It is important to mention that Banco Macro's market share over private sector loans as of March 2023 reached 7.3%.

On the funding side, total deposits decreased 7% or ARS 112.6 billion quarter-on-quarter and increased 6% or ARS 8 billion year-on-year. Private sector deposits decreased 6% or ARS 89.7 billion quarter-on-quarter, with private sector deposits decreased 17% quarter-on-quarter. The decrease in private sector deposits was led by demand deposits, which decreased 13% or ARS 83.4 billion quarter-on-quarter, while time deposits increased 4% or ARS 27 billion. Within private sector deposits, peso deposits decreased 8% or ARS 109.1 billion, while US dollar deposits decreased 17% or $196 million. As of March 2023, Banco Macro's transactional accounts represented approximately 42% of total deposits.

Banco Macro's market share over private sector deposits as of March 2023 totaled 6.1%. In terms of asset quality, Banco Macro's non-performing to total financial ratio reached 1.41%. The coverage ratio measured as total allowance and our expected trade losses over non-performing loans under Central Bank rules totaled 145.3%. Consumer portfolio non-performing loans deteriorated 24 basis points up to 1.34% from 1.1% in the previous quarter, while commercial portfolio non-performing loans improved 22 basis points in the first quarter of 2023. They were down to 1.73% from 1.95% in the previous quarter.

In terms of capitalization, Banco Macro accounted an excess capital of ARS 0.520 billion, which represented a total regulatory capital ratio of 42.4% and a Tier 1 ratio of 39.1%. The bank's aim is to make the best use of this excess capital. The bank's liquidity remained more than appropriate. Liquid assets to total deposit ratio reached 97%. Overall, we have accounted for another positive quarter. We continue to show a sound financial position. Asset quality remain under control and closely monitored. We keep on working to improve more our efficiency standards, and we keep a well-itemized deposit base. At this time, we would like to take the questions you may have.

Operator (participant)

At this time, we are going to open it up for questions and answers. If you would like to ask a question, please press star then one on your touchtone phone. Please unmute your phone and record your name clearly when prompted. One moment please for the first question. Our first question will come from Brian Flores with Citi. You may now go ahead.

Brian Flores (VP of Equity Research)

Hi team. Thank you for the opportunity to ask questions. I just have two questions. The first one is on ROE. I know you're running at high levels of capital and this could be a headwind, but are you changing the soft guidance you provided on the around 10% ROE from the previous conference call? My second point is on politics. Given the momentum in Milei's candidacy, I just wanted to know if you know of any specific measures proposed by him or his team that could affect the banking regulation. Thank you very much.

Jorge Scarinci (CFO)

Good morning, Brian. This is Jorge Scarinci. How are you? On your first question about ROE guidance that we gave in the former quarter conference call, basically, what I'm thinking is that what we mentioned was a kind of a range of guidance. Basically, what we are seeing right now in Argentina is higher inflation than the one that we or at least the consensus was expecting. The range for ROE for this year should be slightly lower than 10, should be 9% or 8.5% area. Because the consensus is expecting inflation to be 130% compared to the 94% that we had in 2022.

Brian Flores (VP of Equity Research)

Basically, this is not an operating level because at an operating level we are showing good growth rates year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, but in terms of bottom line, we are affected by high inflation. Second, your second question, honestly, we don't make a lot of comments on politics, but honestly, we do not know as far as for the moment any potential measure on Milei's candidacy. Honestly, no clue in this politics question that you ask.

Yuri Fernandes (Executive Director)

That is great. Thank you very much.

Jorge Scarinci (CFO)

You're welcome.

Operator (participant)

Our next question will come from Ernesto Gabilondo with Bank of America. You may now go ahead.

Ernesto Gabilondo (Vice President and Senior Equity Analyst)

Thank you. Hi, good morning, Gustavo, Jorge, and Nicolas. Thanks for the opportunity to ask questions. I have three from my side. The first one will be on your expectations for long growth, considering that, well, as you mentioned, we have been seeing higher inflation and higher interest rates in Argentina. If you can elaborate on your expectations per segment for this year will be helpful. My second question is on your Tier 1 ratio. We have seen that the regulator has allowed the banks to start paying excess capital and allow you to pay dividends.

After paying the dividends, where do you see your Tier 1 ratio, and where you see will be like your targets or your comfortable level for the Tier 1 ratio during the next years? Thank you.

Jorge Scarinci (CFO)

Hi, Ernesto. How are you? First question in terms of loan growth. Again, what we are seeing is that loans are going to grow in nominal levels but are going to decrease in real terms as what we are seeing for the moment. Basically, this is a special year in terms of elections plus high inflation and of course, high nominal rates. We are not expecting a pressure on loan demand. We are expecting loans to be below inflation between 5% and 10% in 2023. Mostly in the commercial area, maybe not that much in the consumption portfolio. The total loan book should be down between 5% and 10% compared to inflation in 2023.

In terms of your second question about the sensitivity on the dual bond portfolio and a 1% increase in inflation or the devaluation of the official FX could impact in our loan book. As you mentioned, it's not that easy to measure, but I would assume approximately in ARS should be after income tax in the area of ARS 2.3 billion-ARS 2.4 billion, a 1% increase in inflation, a 1% increase on the devaluation of the official FX. Take this number as a rough number, okay.

In terms of your fourth question, on the Tier 1 ratio, that of course we know and we are conscious that is a high number, that this is a consequence of what has happened in previous years about raising capital and two years of banks in general could not pay cash dividends. As you mentioned, we are allowed to pay dividends this year again in 6 installments. Assuming that the dividend payment would be in 1 installment, the Tier 1 ratio would be down from level of 39.1% that we posted in this press release to approximately 32%.

However, since the dividend is going to pay installments, the Tier 1 ratio might not decline that much because we are going to have the monthly results that could, at some point, offset the decline on the Tier 1 because of the payment of the dividends. Of course, going forward, we would like to work, of course, with a narrower Tier 1 ratio. We are going to continue paying cash dividends. Again, as we always mentioned, the consolidation or concentration process in the banking sector in Argentina, we think that is continuous. It might happen that in the future there could be a possibility for an M&A, so we could use this excess capital for those purposes also. Plus, that you have to.

We also always comment, that we are a private local bank, we have to be a bit more conservative and always work with a cushion in terms of capital for organic growth. Let's assume that, in a normalized scenario, with a normalized inflation level, we should be working with a Tier 1 ratio ranging in the area of 18%-20%. That is a long-term normalized scenario. Just to give you an idea where, the ideal, Tier 1 ratio for Banco Macro would be.

Ernesto Gabilondo (Vice President and Senior Equity Analyst)

No, this is super helpful, Jorge. Thank you very much.

Jorge Scarinci (CFO)

You are welcome, Ernesto.

Operator (participant)

Our next question will come from Yuri Fernandes with JP Morgan. You may now go ahead.

Yuri Fernandes (Executive Director)

Hello, everybody. Thank you, Jorge and Nicolas. I have a question regarding deposits. Deposits are down 7% quarter-over-quarter, but when we look to the cheap demand deposits and savings and all of that, they are down even more. I kind of get that there may be some seasonality, first Q versus first Q. Looking year-over-year, they are still down. My question is, what is happening with deposits? What is your outlook there? I have a second question regarding capital. Like, for sure, you were not paying dividends, all those explanations already gave in the previous question. Also the mix of loans to assets also change a lot over the years, right? You have much more government securities than loans.

I think the risk weighting factors of this mix is super beneficial for your capital ratios? My question is, have you ever done like an exercise, like returning to a more normalized loans to assets mix, and what would be your capital ratio today? The concern is, at some point, let's say Argentina becomes a more, you know, normalized banking sector and starts having more loans, how your capital would look like? You know, like, do you really have this amount of excess capital, or is this mostly because you have like a very, you know, like, government related securities mix? Thank you.

Jorge Scarinci (CFO)

Hi, Yuri, how are you? In terms of your deposit question, I mean, you have to consider the inflationary environment here. At some point it sounds quite reasonable that people holding money in transactional accounts try to minimize those balances because inflation being at, I don't know, between 7.5% and 8% a month is a lot. At some point, that could be some reasonable behavior from depositors on the transactional accounts. When you see the time deposits, they are growing quarter-over-quarter or year-over-year in real terms. And that is because of the increase on the interest rate that we have seen that the central bank have done in the last 60 or 90 days.

We think that the deposit behavior is quite reasonable. Of course, we continue to be pretty liquid in that sense. In terms of funding, we feel pretty comfortable on the structure that we have right now on our deposit base. On your second question, we have not done the calculation exactly on what would happen if instead of having securities or government bonds that would be translating into new loans. As far as we know, of course, the level of loans to assets right now is one of the lowest in the history as a consequence of what we have mentioned previously. Basically, the economy is not doing that well. Inflation is very high.

Elections are going to take place in the next four or five months. When you, if you look backwards, I think that we reach loans to asset levels of close to 65%. I would say that in those areas, we would remain with a very high Tier 1 ratio. In that sense, we do not have a problem, of course, of excess capital. We continue to be the best capitalized bank in Argentina. We feel, again, comfortable with the level of capital that we have going forward, not in the present because of excess that will necessarily is high, but going forward, we think that we are going to be or become much more efficient on this excess capital.

Yuri Fernandes (Executive Director)

That's pretty clear, Jorge. Just a follow-up on deposits. The minimum deposit payment, right? It's only for time deposits, right? Most of your spread on deposits, they are coming from checking savings account. Is that correct? Or all or those deposits also have some kind of, you know, minimum government remuneration?

Jorge Scarinci (CFO)

The minimum rate is for time deposits only.

Yuri Fernandes (Executive Director)

Perfect. Thank you.

Jorge Scarinci (CFO)

You're welcome.

Operator (participant)

Our next question will come from Carlos Gomez-Lopez with HSBC. You may now go ahead.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez (Head of LatAm Financial Institutions)

Hello, good morning, Jorge, Nicolas. I'm looking at the page 16 of your press release, I noticed that you have sharply reduced your exposure to CER and increased your US dollar net exposure. Is that correct? Are you currently $1.5 billion long US dollar? You know, if time comes, how certain are you that this net position, you know, is something that you could have access to? What is the reason for the reduction in data exposure? Was this a swap of assets, or there is different views that you have about how things are going to go? Thank you.

Jorge Scarinci (CFO)

Hi, Carlos, how are you? Basically the change here is because we have a large portfolio on the dual bonds and a little bit on dollar-linked bonds. In this case, all the loan position on these bonds is take into the foreign currency position and not on the inflation position because we have to choose whether to put it. That's why we have increased or why we have a such a loan position in $ and decrease on the inflation exposure, basically.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez (Head of LatAm Financial Institutions)

Okay. You have to choose. If I add your CER exposure and your forex exposure, it would have been reduced in the first quarter, right? Because you had 200, it went down to 73 for CER, and you had 1.6, and it went to 1.5. Have you closed the gaps in your balance sheet going into 2023?

Jorge Scarinci (CFO)

Basically, now, if you, if you put all the effects, you mean if you put all the net effects on the CER, could be a little bit, because we changed from some CER or inflation bonds to dual bonds. Basically, we continue to be, since we have to break to choose one of each, but in reality, we have exposure to both, either inflation or the evaluation of the effects be higher. Again, maybe a little bit in terms of inflation. This could be also because there were some loans tied to inflation that were matured, and we have an increase in our loan book, adjusted by inflation in the same amount as the one that we were doing, basically.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez (Head of LatAm Financial Institutions)

One final clarification. Again, when I look at this table and I see a position of $1.5 billion, that's about half of your equity with the official exchange rate. Should we see that as real? Are you indeed hedged to, let's say, to half of your capital if and when there is a devaluation in Argentina?

Jorge Scarinci (CFO)

Yes. Yeah.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez (Head of LatAm Financial Institutions)

All right. Excellent. Thank you so much.

Jorge Scarinci (CFO)

You're welcome.

Operator (participant)

If you have a question, please press star then one. Our next question will come from Robert Gilman with Free Technology. You may now go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hello. In regards to your dividends, how many dividends payments are you planning to make in the next year?

Jorge Scarinci (CFO)

Good morning. We are going to make a payment this year. We are going to pay six installments starting at the end of May, the first one.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Jorge Scarinci (CFO)

You're welcome.

Operator (participant)

Our next question will come from Rodrigo Nistor with Latin Securities. You may now go ahead.

Rodrigo Nistor (Analyst)

Hi, how are you? Jorge, Nicolas, thank you for the opportunity. I mean, most of my questions have already been answered. But with all these inflation challenges and tough regulations we're expecting this years, are you at Banco Macro already brainstorming for 2025, 2026? Or does the upcoming election makes too hard to plan that far ahead? Then maybe Jorge, what are the big things on your worry list right now? Thank you.

Jorge Scarinci (CFO)

Hi, Rodrigo. Of course, we do not right now we are not thinking exactly on 25 or 26, but, you know, Argentina is not that easy to forecast two or three years ahead. Of course, we know where we want to be and our strategy will continue with our strategy in the long run, that is to be the leading bank in Argentina. Maybe in the interim, we'll have to adjust the strategy as the one that we are doing right now. I think that most of the banks are doing that. When you have a declining loan demand and you have deposits growing, you have excess funds that you at some point you have to invest them in some place where to get some return.

At some point, you have to hedge your equity against inflation or against a potential devaluation of the effects. I think that, in the long run, we have a clear picture where we want to be in the leading positions of the banking sector in Argentina. I would say that, the thing that worries us as a most are basically an acceleration in inflation that it is going to affect more the loan demand and, of course, the PNL on banks. I would say that inflation would be the worst problem for the banking sector. I think that for Argentina in general.

Rodrigo Nistor (Analyst)

Okay, that was helpful. Thank you.

Jorge Scarinci (CFO)

Welcome.

Operator (participant)

There are no more questions at this time. This concludes the question and answer session. I'll now turn over to Mr. Nicolas Torres for final considerations.

Nicolas Torres (Investor Relations)

Thank you all for your interest in Banco Macro. We appreciate your time and look forward to speaking with you again. Have a good day.

Operator (participant)

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.