Banco Macro - Q3 2022
November 28, 2022
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Banco Macro's Q3 2022 earnings conference call. We would like to inform you that the Q3 2022 press release is available to download at the investor relations website at Banco Macro, at www.macro.com.ar/relaciones-inversores. This event is also being recorded, and all participants will be in a listen only mode during the company's presentation. After the company's remarks are completed, there will be a question and answer session. At that time, further instructions will be given. Should any participant need assistance during this call, please press star zero to signal the operator. It is now my pleasure to introduce our speakers. Joining us from Argentina are Mr. Gustavo Manriquez, Chief Executive Officer, Mr.
Jorge Scarinci, and Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Nicolas Torres, Investor Relations. I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Nicolas Torres. You may begin your conference, sir.
Nicolas Torres (Director of Investor Relations)
Thank you. Good morning. Welcome to Banco Macro's Q3 2022 conference call. Any comment we may make today may include forward-looking statements which are subject to various conditions. These are outlined in our 20-F, which was filed to the SEC. It's available at our website. Q3 2022 press release was distributed last Wednesday. It's also available at our website. All figures are in Argentine pesos, have been restated in terms of the measuring unit current at the end of the reporting period. As of 2020, the bank began reporting results applying high inflation accounting in accordance with IFRS IAS 29, as established by the Central Bank of Argentina. For ease of comparison, figures for previous quarters have been restated applying IAS 29 to reflect the accumulated effects of the inflation adjustment for each period through September 30, 2022.
I will now briefly comment on the bank's Q3 2022 financial results. Banco Macro's net income for the quarter was ARS 8.9 billion, 76% higher than the Q2 of 2022 and 34% lower than the result posted a year ago. As of the Q3 of 2022, the bank's accumulated annualized ROE and ROA of 7.7% and 1.9% respectively remain healthy and show the bank's earnings potential. Net operating income before general and personal expenses in the Q3 of 2022 was ARS 122 billion. 22% or ARS 22 billion higher quarter-on-quarter due to higher income from financial instruments at fair value of profit or loss and higher FX gains.
On a yearly basis, net operating income increased 54% or ARS 42.6 billion due to higher income from financial instruments at fair value of profit or loss and higher FX gains. Operating income after general and administrative expenses was ARS 75.1 billion, 39% or ARS 21 billion higher than the Q2 of 2022, and 101% or ARS 37.7 billion higher than in the Q3 of 2021. In the quarter, net interest income totaled ARS 63.5 billion, 3% or ARS 2.1 billion lower than the result posted in the Q2 of 2022, but 17% or ARS 9 billion higher than the result posted one year ago.
In the Q3 of 2022, interest income totaled ARS 137.2 billion, 17% or ARS 20 billion higher than the Q2 of 2022, and 50% or ARS 45.8 billion higher than the previous year. Within interest income, interest on loans totaled ARS 55.5 billion and increased 9% or ARS 4.6 billion quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to a 324 basis points increase in the average lending rate. Interest on loans increased 22% or ARS 9.8 billion year-on-year. In the Q3 of 2022, interest on loans represented 40% of total interest income. Net income from government and private securities increased 19% or ARS 12.2 billion quarter-on-quarter due to higher income from government securities.
Compared to the Q3 of 2021, net income from government and private securities increased 86% or ARS 36 billion. In the Q3 of 2022, income from repos totaled ARS 3.9 billion, 358% or ARS 3 billion higher than in the previous quarter and 3% or ARS 107 million lower than a year ago. In the Q3 of 2022, FX gains, including investments in derivative financing, totaled ARS 16 billion gain, ARS 9.5 billion higher than in the Q2 of 2022 and ARS 15 billion higher than the previous year due to the bank's long dollar position and the peso depreciation during the quarter.
In the Q3 of 2022, interest expenses totaled ARS 73.7 billion, a 43% or ARS 22.1 billion increase compared to the Q2 of 2022, and a 100% or ARS 36.8 billion higher on a yearly basis. Within interest expenses, interest on deposits increased 45% or ARS 22.4 billion quarter on quarter, mainly driven by a 950 basis points increase in the average interest rate paid on deposits. While the average volume of private sector deposits increased 6%. On a yearly basis, interest on deposits increased 106% or ARS 37.2 billion. In the Q3 of 2022, interest on deposits represented 98% of the bank's financial expenses.
In the Q3 of 2022, the bank's net interest margin, including FX, was 28.1%, higher than the 24.7% posted in the Q2 of 2022 and the 19.1% registered in the Q3 of 2021. In the Q3 of 2022, net fee income totaled ARS 14.2 billion, 2% or ARS 350 million lower than in the Q2 of 2022. On a yearly basis, net fee income decreased 1% or ARS 80 million. In the Q1 of 2022, net income from financial assets and liabilities at fair value to profit or loss totaled ARS 25.5 billion gain, 183% or ARS 16.5 billion higher than the previous quarter.
This increase is mostly related to higher income from government securities, which increased 416% or ARS 14.7 billion. On a yearly basis, net income from financial assets and liabilities at fair value to profit or loss increased 304% or ARS 19.2 billion. In the quarter, other operating income totaled ARS 3.7 billion, 20% or ARS 911 million lower compared to the 2Q 2022. On a yearly basis, other operating income increased 16% or ARS 517 million. In the 3Q 2022, Banco Macro's personnel and administrative expenses totaled ARS 26 million, 3% or ARS 854 million lower than the previous quarter. Personnel expenses decreased 4%, while administrative expenses remained unchanged.
On a yearly basis, personnel and administrative expenses increased 5% or ARS 1.2 billion. As of the Q3 of 2022, the efficiency ratio reached 29.1%, improving from the 31.2% posted in the Q2 of 2022. In the Q3 of 2022, expenses decreased 3%, while net interest income plus net fee income plus other operating income increased 23% compared to the Q2 of 2022. In the Q3 of 2022, the results from net monetary position totaled ARS 58.3 billion loss, 25% or ARS 11.7 billion higher than the loss posted in the Q2 of 2022 due to higher inflation observed in the quarter. 467 basis points above the Q2 2022 level.
Inflation was 22% in the quarter compared to 17.3% in the Q2 of 2022. In the Q3 of 2022, Banco Macro's effective tax rate was 46.7%. More information is provided in note 22 in our financial statements. In terms of loan growth, the bank's financing to the private sector totaled ARS 507 billion, decreasing 7% or ARS 37.2 billion quarter-on-quarter. 9% or ARS 53.1 billion lower year-on-year. Within commercial lending, overdraft and debt limits stand out with an 18% decrease and 9% increase respectively. Meanwhile, within consumer lending, personal loans decreased 4%, while credit card loans decreased 6%.
Within private sector financing, peso financing decreased 6% or ARS 33.3 billion, while US dollar financing decreased 26% or USD 63 million. It is important to mention that Banco Macro's market share over private sector loans as of September 2022 reached 7.3%. On the funding side, total deposits totaled ARS 1.1 trillion and increased 7% or ARS 77.7 billion quarter-on-quarter, and 13% or ARS 132.1 billion higher year-on-year. Private sector deposits increased 5% quarter-on-quarter, while public sector deposits increased 32% quarter-on-quarter. The increase in private sector deposits was led by time deposits, which increased 7% or ARS 34.5 billion, while demand deposits decreased 5% or ARS 21.4 billion.
Within private sector deposits, peso deposits increased 10% or ARS 94.3 billion, while US dollar deposits decreased 45% or USD 289 million. As of September 2022, Banco Macro's transactional accounts represented approximately 43% of total deposits. Banco Macro's market share over private deposits as of September 2022 totaled 6.5%. In terms of asset quality, Banco Macro's non-performing total financial ratio reached 1.27%, and the coverage ratio measured as total allowances under expected credit losses over non-performing loans under Central Bank rules totaled 153.13%. Consumer portfolio non-performing loans were unchanged at 1.23%, while commercial portfolio non-performing loans increased 15 basis points in the Q3 of 2022.
In terms of capitalization, Banco Macro accounted in excess capital of ARS 351.9 billion, which represented a total capital ratio of 40.4% and a Tier 1 ratio of 36.1%. It should be noted that on May 12th, the Superintendencia de Entidades Financieras y Cambiarias of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic informed us that it had decided to authorize Banco Macro to distribute profits in cash and/or in kind for an aggregate amount of ARS 19.7 billion. The distribution should be carried out in 12 monthly equal and consecutive installments. As of this date, the bank has paid 11 installments and will pay another 1 in December. The bank's aim is to make the best use of this excess capital. The bank's liquidity remained more than appropriate. Liquid assets total deposit ratio reached 90%.
Overall, we have accounted for another positive quarter. We continue showing a solid financial position. Asset quality remained under control and closely monitored. We keep on working to improve more our efficiency standards. We keep a well-optimized deposit base. At this time, we would like to take the questions you may have.
Operator (participant)
At this time, we're going to open it up for questions and answers. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your touch-tone phone. Please unmute your phone and record your name clearly when prompted. One moment please for the first question. The first question will come from Alonso Garcia with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Alonso Garcia (Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, good morning, everyone, and thank you for taking my question. My question is regarding your exposure to the public sector, especially to the National Treasury. I mean, I understand that in this environment, right, of negative real interest rates and very low credit demand, it's the way you can protect your shareholders' equity, right, from inflation. But is there... I noticed that in this quarter, you had a in relative terms, right? As a % of your total assets, you had a slight decline in your exposure to public sector compared to the previous quarter.
Just wanted to hear your thoughts on your exposure to the National Treasury going forward, considering that next year, most likely credit demand might remain subdued, and that interest rates might remain as well in negative territory in real terms. I don't know if you have any kind of internal limits or anything, any color you can provide on this exposure going forward. Thank you.
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
Hi, Alonso. Good morning. This is Jorge Scarinci. No, honestly, we would not have an internal benchmark in terms of exposure to the public sector. This is ranging differently in the quarters, taking into consideration the behavior of interest rates, the different instruments that the Treasury is issuing in terms of getting the debt from the market. Honestly, we feel comfortable with the exposure that we have. Again, this might change depending on the quarter, and we think that the public sector debt has no problem to be renewed going forward.
Alonso Garcia (Equity Research Analyst)
Perfect. That's. That was my question. Thank you very much.
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
Welcome, Alonso.
Operator (participant)
The next question will come from Nicolas Riva with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Nicolas Riva (Director)
Thanks very much, Jorge and Nicolas, for taking my questions. I have two questions. Jorge, first, if you can give us a bit of an outlook for 2023 in terms of if you expect to see some recovery in credit demand next year. We have seen continued negative loan growth in real terms, but if you can discuss the outlook for 2023, as well as for NPLs and ROEs, where you're reporting ROEs very close to 10% in real terms, which I think is not bad compared to nominal ROEs and current inflation in our Latin American markets. If you can discuss again the outlook for loan growth, NPLs, and ROEs next year.
Second, more specific, I did see an increase on the net loan position in dollars this quarter, which before was around USD 400 million, and it increased to about USD 1.2 billion in the quarter. If you can discuss what drove this increase, if it was deliberate, and if we should read it as the bank positioning for a stronger devaluation in the official exchange rate, in the short term. Thanks.
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
Hi, Nicolas. How are you? On your first question, in terms of the outlook for 2023, honestly, according to local economists, they are expecting a kind of a slowdown in economic activity. In 2022, real GDP is expected to be up close to 5%, and for next year, according to the consensus that we've seen, economists are expecting between 1% and 2% positive growth in Argentina, so kind of a slowdown compared to 2022. In terms of the behavior of loan demands, we expect that nominal interest rates will continue at high levels, so we are not expecting a recovery in loan demand in real terms for 2023. Even though the slowdown, we are not expecting a pickup in NPLs.
We believe that the level of coverage with provisions and what we are seeing in terms of the behavior of the different sectors in Argentina, we're not expecting a pickup there. In terms of NPLs, that could be ranging between the current level and the 1.5% along 2023. ROE, we are expecting to continue these levels, ranging between 8%-12% in positive levels, not big a difference compared to what we are delivering right now. In terms of your second question on the net loan position in USD, there are no changes in regulations, banks can be 0% loan in what is USD.
The position that, or the increase that you are seeing there is mainly driven by the increase in bonds linked to the dollars, and these bonds are follow the behavior of the official FX. That is the increase that you are seeing in the quarter. That is the way that we find in order to hedge the equity of the bank, both to the inflation, investing in bonds that are tied to the CER, that is the inflation behavior, and the, what we call the dollar-linked bonds that are in pesos that follow the depreciation of the official FX.
Nicolas Riva (Director)
Okay, thanks very much for all of that, Jorge.
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
You're welcome, Nicolas.
Operator (participant)
The next question will come from Carlos Gomez-Lopez with HSBC. Please go ahead. Mr. Gomez, your line is open. The next question will come from Alejandra Aranda with Itaú. Please go ahead.
Alejandra Aranda (Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, good morning. Hi, Jorge. I'm wondering, looking at the system and how a lot of banks are struggling in terms of profitability, what are you seeing? What's your view on the current situation of the system, and what do you think would be a way forward for the Argentine financial sector, and how do you picture Macro playing on that process?
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
Hi Alejandra, thanks for your question. No, what we are seeing is that the banking sector in Argentina continues to be healthy, very liquid, both in pesos and in dollars. The only thing is that because we adjust our P&L to inflation, of course banks are suffering losses because of the net asset position there. We continue to see profitability on average on the banking sector. Of course, it's much easier for banks as Banco Macro that has a much larger size than smaller banks. Overall, we believe and will continue to see that the health of the banking sector in Argentina is pretty good.
Going forward, we think at some point, maybe not in 2023, but maybe in 2024, maybe in second half of that year, if there is a new government at the end of 2023 with a more stabilization economic program, that could bring a bit more of stability and kind of demand from loans if inflation is going to go down, but we have to wait until second half of 2024 for that to happen. Meanwhile, I think the banks will continue to show flat or negative real performance on loans, basically on the back of high nominal interest rates, and that we are having elections next year. Good level of NPLs, ROEs ranging the area of 10. No big changes going forward, frankly.
Alejandra Aranda (Equity Research Analyst)
If I may a second one, you pointed out that you don't see loan growth for next year in real terms, which makes perfect sense. How do you balance profitability and exposure to the public sector? Thinking about that, are you thinking of lowering or try to lower the amount of deposits? I don't know what you're thinking there, Jorge.
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
No, yeah, Alejandra, if that would be the case of decreasing exposure to public sector, we have to at some point decrease liabilities or deposits. Yes, of course. For the moment, that is not our view. We are going to keep on trading up profitability and exposure to the public sector. Again, we believe that the debt with the Central Bank back on the LELIQs are having no problems. What we are seeing is that the debt on the Treasury, that we use that to hedge our equity is showing good performance and we are not seeing for the moment problem for the Treasury to roll over the debts. Of course, this is a dynamic process and we are going to continue monitoring that.
This might change, in the first or Q2 of next year, depending on market condition. If that would be the case, we are going to consider a reduction there. For the moment, we feel pretty comfortable with the level of exposure to the public sector.
Alejandra Aranda (Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you very much, Jorge.
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
Welcome, Alejandra.
Operator (participant)
The next question will come from Carlos Gomez-Lopez with HSBC. Please go ahead.
Carlos Gomez-Lopez (Senior Analyst of Latin America Financials)
Hello, Jorge, apologies for the technical difficulties before. I wanted to get your opinion about your use of capital. Your capital ratio has been for a while now, it's increasingly getting bigger. Is there any possibility to anticipate any M&A in the coming two years? Higher dividends, or do we have to wait until 2024 when the economic cycle might provide uses for that capital? Thank you.
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
Hi, Carlos, good to hear from you. Thanks for the question. It's not easy. Honestly, we know that we have a huge excess of capital. The point here is that we depend on the central bank authorization on a higher dividend, and that is going to be discussed in March, April next year. I wouldn't be that positive there. I think that my best scenario for next year is a kind of similar dividend than the one that we deliver this year. Of course, we are always open to any M&A activity, depending of course on the target, depending on the price. We believe that in the current conditions, it is not easy to find that.
Of course, we are open to look to every single transaction to be on the table.
Carlos Gomez-Lopez (Senior Analyst of Latin America Financials)
Okay, it doesn't sound like you think it is very likely.
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
No, I mean, this is, you know that we are working in a not easy, let's say in that words, not easy environment. We are trying to make the best use of this excess capital. It is again, it's quite difficult considering the current economic scenario in Argentina. We are trying to find any potential solutions to that. Believe me that the board is committed on a monthly basis to do that. For the moment, we are not finding further solution to that.
Carlos Gomez-Lopez (Senior Analyst of Latin America Financials)
Thank you very much.
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
Thanks, Carlos.
Operator (participant)
The next question will come from Santiago Petri with Franklin Templeton. Please go ahead.
Santiago Petri (SVP and Senior Executive Director)
Hi, Jorge and Nicolas. Thanks for the call. My question is focused on the net income from financial assets at fair value through P&L line. I don't know if you could give us more color on the drivers of the big jump in this line. Was it a revaluation of assets? Was it related to inflation? Sir, I would like to know if you can help us on the drivers of that line. Thank you.
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
Hi, Santiago. How are you? I mean, the counts that we put in this line are basically the dollar-linked bonds and what we call the dual bond that can be adjusted by inflation or to the performance of the FX the higher. These ones are marked to market, and they are. You could see volatility in the quarterly performance of this line depending on how the price of these bonds evolve. Basically those are the main important elements on this line.
Santiago Petri (SVP and Senior Executive Director)
Okay, thanks. Thanks a lot.
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
Welcome, Santiago.
Operator (participant)
There are no questions at this time. This concludes the question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Nicolas Torres for any final considerations. Please go ahead.
Nicolas Torres (Director of Investor Relations)
Thank you all for your interest in Banco Macro. We appreciate your time and look forward to speaking with you again. Good day.