Banco Macro - Q3 2023
November 27, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Banco Macro's third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. We would like to inform you that the 3Q 2023 press release is available to download at the Investor Relations website of Banco Macro, www.macro.com.ar/relaciones-inversores. Also, this event is being recorded, and all participants will be in listen-only mode during the company's presentation. After the company's remarks are completed, there will be a question and answer session. At that time, further instructions will be given. Should any participant need assistance during this call, please press star zero to signal the operator. It is now my pleasure to introduce our speakers. Joining us from Argentina are Mr. Gustavo Manriquez, Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Jorge Scarinci, Chief Financial Officer, and Mr. Nicolás Torres, Investor Relations.
Now, I will turn the conference over to Mr. Nicolás Torres. You may begin your conference.
Nicolás Torres (Investor Relations)
Thank you, Gary. Good morning, and welcome to Banco Macro's third quarter 2023 conference call. Any comments we may make today may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to various conditions, and these are outlined in our 20-F, which was filed to the SEC, and it's available at our website. Third quarter 2023 press release was distributed last Wednesday, and it's available at our website. All figures are in Argentine pesos and have been restated in terms of the measuring unit current at the end of the reporting period. As of 2020, the bank began reporting results applying hyperinflation accounting in accordance with IFRS-IAS 29, as established by the Central Bank of Argentina. For ease of comparison, figures of previous quarters have been restated applying IAS 29 to reflect the accumulated effect of inflation adjustment for each period through September 30, 2023.
I will now briefly comment on the bank's third quarter 2023 financial results. Banco Macro's net income for the quarter was ARS 7.5 billion, 87% lower than the second quarter of 2023, and 55% lower than the result posted a year ago. The bank's accumulated ROE and ROA of 11.3% and 2.8% respectively, remain healthy and show the bank's earnings potential. Net operating income before general, administration, and personal expenses for the third quarter of 2023 was ARS 356.5 billion, increasing ARS 364 million quarter-on-quarter. On a yearly basis, net operating income before general, administration, and personal expenses increased 23% or ARS 66.7 billion.
In the third quarter of 2023, provision for loan losses totaled ARS 4.9 billion, 35% or ARS 2.6 billion lower than the previous quarter. On a yearly basis, provision for loan losses increased 43% or ARS 1.5 billion. Operating income after general, administrative, and personal expenses was ARS 235 billion, or 1% or ARS 1.7 billion higher than the second quarter of 2023, and 31% or ARS 56.1 billion higher than the third quarter of 2022. In the quarter, net interest income totaled ARS 112.7 billion, 23% or ARS 32.8 billion lower than the result posted in the second quarter of 2023, and 26% or ARS 38.6 billion lower than the result posted one year ago.
In the third quarter of 2023, interest income totaled ARS 429.1 billion, 4% or ARS 15.1 billion higher than in the second quarter of 2023, and 31% or ARS 102.3 billion higher than the previous year. Within interest income, interest on loans increased 11% or ARS 18.1 billion quarter-over-quarter, due to a 574 basis points increase in the average lending rate, while the average volume of private sector loans was practically unchanged. On a yearly basis, income from interest on loans was 36% or ARS 47.5 billion higher. In the third quarter of 2023, interest on loans represented 42% of total interest income.
Net income from government and private securities decreased 7% or ARS 16 billion quarter on quarter, due to lower income from government securities. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, net income from government and private securities increased 12% or ARS 21.8 billion. In the third quarter of 2023, income from repos totaled ARS 37.6 billion, 52% or ARS 12.8 billion higher than the previous quarter, and 304% or ARS 28.3 billion higher than the same period of last year. In the third quarter of 2023, FX gains, including investment in derivative financing, totaled ARS 238.1 billion gain, ARS 135.8 billion higher than the previous quarter, and ARS 200 billion higher than a year ago.
This result is mainly due to the 36.4% Argentine peso depreciation against the U.S. dollar and the bank's long dollar position, including Dollar-Linked and Dual Bonds. In the third quarter of 2023, interest expense totaled ARS 316.4 billion, an 18% or ARS 47.9 billion increase compared to the second quarter of 2023, and 80% or ARS 140.9 billion higher on a yearly basis. Within interest expenses, interest on deposits increased 19% or ARS 8.7 billion quarter on quarter, mainly driven by a 1,072 basis points increase in the average interest rate paid on deposits, while the average volume of private sector deposits increased 3%. On a yearly basis, interest on deposits increased 80% or ARS 138.2 billion.
In the third quarter of 2023, interest on deposits represented 98% of the bank's financial expenses. In the third quarter of 2023, the bank's net interest margin, including effects, was 58.7%, higher than the 38.2% posted in the second quarter of 2023, and higher than the 28.1% posted in the third quarter of 2022. In the third quarter of 2023, net income, net fee income totaled ARS 35.5 billion, ARS 20 million lower than the second quarter of 2023, and on a yearly basis, net fee income was 5% or ARS 1.6 million higher. In the third quarter of 2023, net income from financial assets and liabilities fair value to profit or loss totaled at ARS 36.4 billion pesos loss, mainly due to the mark-to-market of government securities.
On a yearly basis, net income from financial assets and liabilities fair value to profit or loss decreased ARS 97.2 billion. In the quarter, other operating income totaled ARS 11.3 billion, increasing 9% or ARS 1 billion compared to the second quarter of 2023. On a yearly basis, other operating income increased 26% or ARS 2.4 billion. In the third quarter of 2023, Banco Macro's personnel and administrative expenses totaled ARS 66.2 billion, 3% or ARS 1.6 billion higher than the previous quarter, due to higher employee benefits, which were partially offset by a ARS 102 million decrease in administrative expenses. On a yearly basis, personnel administrative expenses increased 7% or ARS 4.4 billion.
In the third quarter of 2023, the efficiency ratio reached 22.4%, deteriorating from the 21.7% posted in the second quarter of 2023. In the third quarter of 2023, expenses increased 3%, while net interest income, that is net fee income plus other operating income, decreased 1%. In the third quarter of 2023, the result on the net monetary position totaled ARS 215.9 billion loss, considerably higher than the loss posted in the second quarter of 2023, as a consequence of higher inflation observed in the quarter, which was 1,104 basis points higher than the second quarter of 2023.
Inflation in the third quarter of 2023 was 34.8%, compared to 23.8% in the second quarter of 2023. In the third quarter of 2023, Banco Macro's effective tax rate was 60.5%, and further information is provided in note 22 to our financial statements. In terms of loans growth, the bank's total financing totaled ARS 1.2 trillion, decreasing 4% or ARS 50.8 billion quarter-on-quarter, and 5%, ARS 57.8 billion lower year-on-year. Within commercial loans, overdrafts stand out with a 5% or ARS 5.9 billion increase, while documents increased 16% or ARS 30.2 billion. It is important to mention that Banco Macro's market share over private sector loans as of September 2023, reached 7.7%.
On the funding side, total deposits increased 22% or ARS 556 billion quarter-on-quarter, totaling ARS 2 trillion, and increased 25% or ARS 670 billion year-on-year. Private sector deposits decreased 23% or ARS 554.8 billion quarter-on-quarter, while public sector deposits decreased ARS 875 million quarter-on-quarter. The decrease in private sector deposits was led by current deposits, which decreased 30% or ARS 374.2 billion quarter-on-quarter, while demand deposits decreased 16% or ARS 174.3 billion. Within private sector deposits, pesos deposits decreased 24% or ARS 549.7 billion, while U.S. dollar deposits decreased 28% or $351 million.
As of September 2023, Banco Macro's transactional accounts represented approximately 46% of total deposits. Banco Macro's market share with private sector deposits as of September 2023 totaled 5.3%. In terms of asset quality, Banco Macro's non-performing total financing ratio reached 1.39%. The coverage ratio, measured as total allowance under expected credit losses over non-performing loans under central bank rules, remained stable at 133.93%. Consumer portfolio non-performing loans deteriorated 5 basis points, up to 1.48% from 1.43% in the previous quarter. While commercial portfolio non-performing loans improved 4 basis points in the second quarter of 2023, down to 1.14% from 1.18% in the previous quarter.
In terms of capitalization, Banco Macro accounted an excess capital of ARS 788.3 billion, which represented a total regulatory capital ratio of 37.9% and a Tier 1 ratio of 34.8%. The bank's aim is to make the best use of this excess capital. The bank's liquidity remained more than appropriate. Liquid assets to total deposit ratio reached 99%. Overall, we have accounted for another positive quarter. We continue showing a solid financial position. Asset quality remain under control and closely monitored. We keep on working to improve more our efficiency standards, and we keep a well-optimized deposit base. Finally, on November second, 2023, the Central Bank of Argentina approved the sale of Itaú Argentina, now Banco BMA, to Banco Macro.
Banco Macro has now acquired 100% of the shares and votes of Banco Itaú Argentina and its subsidiaries, Itaú Asset Management and Itaú Valores. The price of the agreement was set at $50 million, which was paid on November 3. An additional amount resulting from a potential adjustment that will be eventually set based on the results obtained by Banco Itaú Argentina and subsidiaries between April 1, 2023, and the closing date, will be determined at a future date. At this time, we would like to take questions that you may have.
Operator (participant)
... At this time, we're going to open it up for questions and answers. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. One moment, please, for the first question. Our first question today is from Ernesto Gabilondo with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Ernesto Gabilondo (Director of LatAm Financial)
Hi, good morning, Gustavo, Jorge, and Nicolás. Thanks for the opportunity. My first question will be on the potential economic outlook for Argentina. Which do you think could be the key execution risks for the new administration? How do you see the possibility to implement structural reforms, considering that Congress could be kind of divided, as neither the officialism or the right parties will have the majority? Also related to this macro political context, we have seen Caputo will be appointed as the new economy minister. He has been hinting that the capital controls will not be lifted right away, and the dollarization process will be a medium-term target. So having said that, how are you seeing the dual currency in the medium term?
And how should we think about the Argentine peso against the Blue Chip? And considering the high inflation levels, when should we start to think of lower rates for Argentina? And I will also, kind of related to this, we have been seeing that Milei will want to remove the central bank, reduce our LELIQ exposure. So if that happens, how are you positioning the excess liquidity? Do you want to allocate it into loans? But again, considering this context of high levels of interest rates and inflation, how fast do you think will be the credit demand next year? Thank you.
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
Hi, Ernesto. Good morning. This is Jorge Scarinci. Thanks for your questions. I will try to summarize my answers. On the outlook for 2024 for Argentina, I think that even though it is a bit early, but most of the economic consultants in Argentina are, like, dividing next year into two. The first half, with a higher inflation compared to the second half, basically because at least the market is expecting some devaluation on the official FX and some adjustments on tariff prices and also on oil and gas prices. And that would affect short-term inflation. And therefore, the first half of 2024, we should be seeing a high inflation number compared to the second half, again, according to local economists here.
In terms of the new administration, honestly, it seems to be like a year ago, they were elected. However, it's only one week since Milei was elected president. And for sure, things in Argentina runs in a very high speed. However, we are still two weeks before December the tenth, when he is going to be appointed in. Therefore, in the last week, we have seen or heard many names to be appointed as a ministers, and they were, like, laid down, new names appeared. So I would say that we have to be a little bit careful and patient on the names, on the ministers that will help Milei to tackle the next four years for Argentina.
I think that the biggest challenge for Milei basically is inflation, of course, and how he will try to reduce the fiscal deficit also with the reform that he's planning to send to the Congress. And again, here, the Congress, he would help. He would need the help of Juntos por el Cambio, because the amount of deputies and senators belonging to Milei are very few. Honestly, it is not an easy task, as of today, to make what is going to happen in the next 30 or 90 or 120 days of Milei's period. So we have to be a little patient on that and to see how things evolve.
According to Milei's statements, he has a clear picture on the economic, monetary, and fiscal situation, and he will try to do his best on the measures. But again, we have to wait because measures will be taken from December the tenth onwards, and law projects are going to be sent to the Congress after December the tenth. So we have to wait a little bit more to see official announcements and not only newspaper statements on Milei's proposals. And this is including everything, also the dollarization that two months ago was an issue, and now apparently is not a big issue that could take place in two or three years after the normalization of the economy.
Same happened with the situation that's of the central bank, that, now the, the, the latest statements are saying that Milei is saying that the central bank is not going to be closed day number one, but he wants to improve the balance of the central bank first. So again, a bit, a bit of patience on, on, on the evolution of, of the announcements and, on the official, law projects and measures that, will take place after December the tenth. In terms of Banco Macro, we decided to, reduce at some point, the exposure to the central bank. So, at, late September, but more in the fourth quarter, we decided to start the reduction of the LELIQ exposure to... with the central bank.
At some point, reducing some institutional deposits, also extending additional loans, short-term loans to AAA companies, and also increasing the amount of sovereign bonds in local currency, in pesos. Basically, the Dual Bonds and Dollar-Linked Bonds. So Ernesto, that was a kind of a summary on the bunch of questions that you asked.
Ernesto Gabilondo (Director of LatAm Financial)
No, no, very interesting, very interesting, Jorge. Just a follow-up on this, related to your exposure to dual bonds and dollar-linked bonds. So how are you thinking for next year? Because we have seen that most of the banks have benefited because they have not been lending, and they have been using this excess liquidity into these securities. So thinking that next year could be more challenging. And actually, in this quarter, we saw a lot of volatility. You did very well in terms of ex-FX gains, but we have some losses in the security. So how should we think about this? Or how should we think about the sensitivity? Which are the variables that we will have to be looking in the next quarters?
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
Yeah, I mean, you're right. In the third quarter, there was some decline in prices, basically on the Dual Bonds and Dollar-Linked Bonds, as a consequence of some statements made by Milei at that time. However, what we are seeing in the fourth quarter is a big recovery in the prices of these bonds. And nowadays, the markets continue showing some hedge against the potential devaluation of the official exchange rate. So the fourth quarter performance on these bonds is looking very good. Honestly, this is a way that we have been mentioning this many times, that is a way of hedging the equity of the bank, since banks cannot be long in dollars. So we found this as another way of protecting the equity of the bank.
For next year, I think that conditions might change, depending on how the market evolves, how inflation expectations are for the second half. If expectations for inflation decline, this could bring... And of course, in hand-in-hand with the decline of nominal rates, this would bring additional loan demand. But again, this, if happens, is going to happen by the end of 2024. So I think that next year should be challenging, and at some point, banks would have to see where to allocate the excess liquidity. And in the case of Banco Macro, as we have been proving in last years, we always try to allocate excess liquidity in profitable assets with a risk/reward equation to be positive for the bank, always looking at profitability, solvency, and liquidity. So that's the idea, Ernesto.
Ernesto Gabilondo (Director of LatAm Financial)
No, excellent, excellent, Jorge. Just, last question on how do you see the ROE for this and for next year?
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
I mean, for this year, well, the fourth quarter is not closed yet. We might see something in the area of high teens or maybe close to 20%, depending on the evolution of bond prices. So in that area. For next year, tougher to forecast. Let's assume that we are working with a scenario between 10%-15% in real terms.
Ernesto Gabilondo (Director of LatAm Financial)
Perfect. Perfect. Thank you very much.
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
Welcome, Ernesto.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Brian Flores with Citibank. Please go ahead.
Brian Flores (VP of Equity Research)
... Hi team. Thank you for the opportunity to ask questions. I have two questions. The first one is on the strategic rationale of deposits. We saw, contrary maybe to some of your peers, a shrinkage in deposits on a quarter-on-quarter basis. So just wanted to understand what is your rationale behind this? That is my first question. And then, on the second question, we saw some effects on the effective tax rate. I think the notes were very clear, but just I was wondering if these effects are recurring in nature, we should see something more for the remainder of the year. Any other insights here is very helpful. Thank you.
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
Hi, Brian, how are you? Let's start with your second question. In terms of the taxes, I mean, if you look at the ninth month income tax rate, it is 35%. Basically, it was it was slightly below in the first two quarters, and basically the third quarter, we are catching up in order to reach the 35% income tax statutory rate that we have here in Argentina. In terms of your first question, the behavior of deposits is related to, sorry, related to what I mentioned in to Ernesto's questioning. I mean, we decided at some point to reduce some institutional deposits in the strategy of reducing the allocation of assets and exposure to the central bank.
Basically, because we decided to pay lower interest rate to those depositors, that they moved to other banks. That is, the main, reason for that.
Brian Flores (VP of Equity Research)
Okay, perfect. And then just to confirm, because I didn't hear very clearly, you were thinking about ROE for next year between 12 and 15. Is this correct?
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
Actually, that is correct. Again, very preliminary estimates, because of course, next year it's going to be important year in sense of we are going to have new president, new economic cabinet, new measures. So as of today, we are working with that scenario. That could change at the beginning of 2024, depending on the measures and of course, the outcome that economists might be looking for in terms of inflation, GDP, et cetera.
Brian Flores (VP of Equity Research)
Okay. Super clear. Thank you.
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
Welcome.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Nicolás Riva with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Nicolas Riva (Director of EM Corporate Credit Research and LatAm Financials)
Thanks very much, Nicholas and Jorge, for the chance to ask questions. So Jorge, I wanna circle back on kind of the prior question, the initial question that well, Ernesto made multiple questions, but one of the topics that he wanted to discuss was LELIQ exposure. So and in this case, really talking about Banco Macro, but you know, as a CFO of one of the largest banks, you can provide some insights into, at this point, what you think is the new administration's plan for the LELIQ? Because it seems to me, right, you know, here talking based on what I see here from New York, would be that the market solution that the new administration is talking about could be just exchanging the stock of LELIQ for longer term government bonds.
Is that the way you see it as well? And as you said, the new administration hasn't even taken office. They're gonna do that December ten. It seems like a year since Milei won the election, but it has only been a week. And also, if at this point you think that the restructuring of the LELIQ could include any haircut to the principal. I would assume going forward that there's gonna be very little, if any, new issuance from LELIQ, but I wanted to also get your thoughts in terms of how you think this administration is gonna treat that stock of outstanding LELIQ. Thanks very much, Jorge.
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
Nicholas, how are you? Thanks for your question. Honestly, what we've heard for the moment in terms of, of what the, the new administration might be doing, are only unofficial comments. All of them are unofficial, and we have heard a bunch of different measures. In terms of Banco Macro, I can tell you that, as I mentioned before, we decided to reduce this exposure to the central bank. So, we are going to reach December with no exposure to LELIQ. I mean, 0% of LELIQ exposure to the central bank started in December. So this is a process that we started almost two months ago. And according to what we've seen in the last auctions, there are other private banks that are following the same path that we initiated two months ago.
So at some point, I would say that the new administration is going to have a much smaller amount of LELIQs to work on. In my personal view, most of that is going to be in the hands of public-owned banks. But honestly, I don't know what they are going to offer or what they are going to do with the LELIQs stock. That is going to be much, much smaller after December the tenth, considering what we have seen in the latest auctions. But honestly, Nicolás, it is not easy for me to tell you what they are going to do, honestly, because...
All the statements have been very unofficial and according to the press, we still don't know if it is, Caputo is going to be the economy minister or if he's going to go to the central bank. So again, a lot of speculations there, so it would not be fair for me to comment on those kind of measures.
Nicolas Riva (Director of EM Corporate Credit Research and LatAm Financials)
Jorge, if I can, one follow-up. So you said, by the end of this year, by the end of December, we plan to have zero LELIQs in our own balance sheet. Would you feel comfortable moving all of that exposure just from a central bank liability to just owning a federal government bond? Or would you prefer to reallocate those LELIQs into a mix of national government bonds, but also some loans to the private sector?
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
Yes, I commented that, Nicholas. I mean, we started; this was a process that lasted for two months. It was a gradual process of decreasing the amount of LELIQ, and on the other hand, reducing the amount of some institutional depositors, plus extending new loans to private companies, triple A, in the short term, plus at some point, increasing exposure to sovereign bonds in pesos. So it's a combination of all that.
Nicolas Riva (Director of EM Corporate Credit Research and LatAm Financials)
Okay, thanks very much, Jorge.
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
You are welcome.
Operator (participant)
Again, if you have a question, please press star then one. The next question is from Carlos Gomez with HSBC. Please go ahead.
Carlos Gomez (Head of LatAm Financial Institutions)
Thank you so much. So two questions. One is, when one looks at your equity, it has barely changed year-on-year. Is that? And should we expect in the fourth quarter or just... The second question is regarding the acquisition of Itaú Argentina. Could you give us some indication about how this is going to affect your?
Operator (participant)
Mr. Gomez, this is the conference operator. Unfortunately, your line seems to be breaking up. Could you try repeating your first question?
Carlos Gomez (Head of LatAm Financial Institutions)
Hello?
Operator (participant)
Go ahead, Mr. Gomez.
Carlos Gomez (Head of LatAm Financial Institutions)
Yes, and apologies for the quality of the line. My question was regarding the changes in shareholders' equity, which have been almost zero year on year, and I wanted to know exactly why that is, if it is the valuation of the bond. Second, if you could give us an indication about the impact of the acquisition of Banco Itaú Argentina on your capital ratio. Thank you.
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
Hi, Carlos, how are you? In terms of the equity evolution, I mean, this is a consequence of the cash dividend that we've been paying, reducing the amount of course of the equity, plus the increase on the results in real terms, that basically in the first nine months of the year are kind of compensating for the cash dividend payment, basically. So this is why the equity is not changing that much compared to last year. In terms of Itau, I mean, the... It's not going to have a major impact in our capital base. The excess capital is going to continue to be similar than the one that we published in the third quarter.
Basically, remember that for the payment, we issued a local debt, one-year duration, for the payment of Itaú. So basically, the capital raise is not going to be altered at all.
Carlos Gomez (Head of LatAm Financial Institutions)
Thank you so much.
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
Welcome, Carlos.
Operator (participant)
The next question is a follow-up from Nicolás Riva with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Nicolas Riva (Director of EM Corporate Credit Research and LatAm Financials)
Thanks very much, Jorge, for taking my follow-up question. One question about your dollar position outside of the country. One of the things that the CEO of Itaú mentioned in your earnings call was that an advantage for the acquiring bank and for them to sell really was that the acquiring bank, Banco Macro, could pay with dollars outside of the country. From what I remember, when you issued the 2026 bond for $400 million in 2016, most of those $400 million were kept offshore. If you can remind us what's your dollar position outside of the country.
I know that you just mentioned that you did issue a, a local bond, to pay for, for the $50 million, but if you can remind us your dollar position outside of the country, that would be very helpful. Thanks.
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
Give me one second, Nicolás, please. I have to check at the end of September, dollars abroad, please. Sorry, Nicolás, for the delay. $350 million as of September 2023 are kept in correspondent banks abroad.
Nicolas Riva (Director of EM Corporate Credit Research and LatAm Financials)
Okay, so that's essentially the $400 million you had issued back in 2016, minus the $50 million for, to acquire Itaú, essentially?
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
Yeah, abroad, yeah.
Nicolas Riva (Director of EM Corporate Credit Research and LatAm Financials)
Okay. Okay, thanks very much, Jorge.
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
You're welcome.
Operator (participant)
There are no more questions at this time. This concludes the question and answer session. I will now turn over to Mr. Nicolás Torres for final considerations.
Jorge Scarinci (CFO)
Thank you all for your interest in Banco Macro. We appreciate your time and look forward to speaking with you again. Good day.
Operator (participant)
The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.