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Bumble Inc. (BMBL)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue was $261.6M, down 4.4% YoY, with Bumble App revenue $212.4M (-3.8% YoY) and Badoo & Other $49.3M (-6.8% YoY); Adjusted EBITDA was $72.5M (27.7% margin). Bumble App revenue exceeded the company’s guidance high end and total revenue/EBITDA landed at the high end/within prior ranges .
  • Operating earnings reached $37.0M (14.1% margin) vs a loss in Q4 2023; ARPPU declined to $20.58 while total paying users rose 5% to 4.18M, reflecting mix and ecosystem changes .
  • Guidance: Q1 2025 revenue $242–$248M, Bumble App $198–$202M, Adjusted EBITDA $60–$63M, with expected sequential decline in payers amid ecosystem clean-up; Fruitz and Official to be discontinued H1 2025 .
  • Strategic catalyst: founder Whitney Wolfe Herd returning as CEO in mid-March; company tightening focus on safety, engagement, and product innovation (Discover tab, AI features), and moving to quarterly guidance only .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well
    • Bumble App revenue beat guidance high end, and total revenue/EBITDA landed at high end/within ranges; company underscored disciplined execution and free cash flow generation of $114M for 2024 .
    • Product progress: roll-out of interest filters and “opening moves” with notable adoption; winter release to add Discover tab and AI photo picker, plus ID verification and safety features .
    • Operating discipline: non-GAAP operating costs down 5% YoY in Q4; operating earnings positive with 14.1% margin vs prior-year operating loss .
  • What Went Wrong
    • ARPPU pressure (total $20.58; Bumble App $25.17; Badoo & Other $11.13) and sequential payer declines (Bumble App down 57k QoQ; Badoo & Other down 20k) amid mix and ecosystem headwinds .
    • Q1 margin contraction expected (Adj. EBITDA ~25% at midpoint) due to revenue headwinds and deliberate investment in product/technology; near-term paying user declines of 100–120k guided .
    • FX headwinds impacted Q4 and are expected to be ~2ppt for 2025; ARPPU declines tied to geographic mix shift .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Revenue ($M)$273.6 $273.6 $261.6
Operating Earnings ($M)$(6.9) N/A (impairment affected GAAP)$37.0
Operating Earnings Margin (%)(2.5)% N/A14.1%
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$73.7 $82.6 $72.5
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)26.9% 30.2% 27.7%

Segment Revenue

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Bumble App Revenue ($M)$220.7 $220.2 $212.4
Badoo App & Other Revenue ($M)$52.9 $53.4 $49.3

KPIs

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Paying Users (000s)3,969.1 4,255.5 4,178.8
Total ARPPU ($)$22.64 $21.17 $20.58
Bumble App Paying Users (000s)2,687.9 2,869.3 2,812.6
Bumble App ARPPU ($)$27.37 $25.58 $25.17
Badoo & Other Paying Users (000s)1,281.2 1,386.2 1,366.2
Badoo & Other ARPPU ($)$12.69 $12.03 $11.13

Balance Sheet and Capital Returns

  • Cash and cash equivalents: $204.3M at 12/31/2024; total debt: $617.1M .
  • Share repurchases: $40.3M in Q4; $14.1M in Jan 2025; $64.7M authorization remaining as of 1/31/2025 .

Estimates vs Actuals (Company Guidance framing; S&P consensus unavailable—see Estimates Context)

MetricPrior Guidance (Nov 6)Actual/Outcome
Q4 2024 Total Revenue ($M)$256–$262 $261.6 (high end)
Q4 2024 Bumble App Revenue ($M)$207–$211 $212.4 (above high end)
Q4 2024 Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$70–$73 $72.5 (within)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total Revenue ($M)Q4 2024$256–$262 (Nov 6) $261.6 actual Achieved high end
Bumble App Revenue ($M)Q4 2024$207–$211 (Nov 6) $212.4 actual Outperformed
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)Q4 2024$70–$73 (Nov 6) $72.5 actual Within
Total Revenue ($M)Q1 2025N/A$242–$248 New
Bumble App Revenue ($M)Q1 2025N/A$198–$202 New
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)Q1 2025N/A$60–$63 (margin ~25% midpoint) New
Apps Portfolio2025N/ADiscontinue Fruitz & Official (H1) Strategic exit

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
AI/Technology initiativesFall update: AI matching model; planned AI photo picker; GenAI support tools; engineering/product cadence reset Winter release adds Discover tab and AI photo picker; expanded safety tech; ongoing ramp of innovation Accelerating
Trust & SafetyCrackdown on bad actors; raise profile requirements; ID verification planned ID verification, “Share My Day,” “Review Before Send” rolling out; safety a core brand differentiator Intensifying
Marketing strategy & ecosystem healthRebalance to organic in mature markets; targeted performance in select EU markets; positive women registrations Ecosystem work to continue, creating near-term headwinds for payer growth; sequential payer declines guided Continued focus; near-term headwind
Revenue strategyPause accelerated Premium+ expansion; rebalance tiers; learnings from Badoo rearchitecture Ongoing testing of paywalls/conversion; monetization to follow engagement improvements; margins to contract near term Re-architect underway
Macro/FXFX headwinds in Q2/Q3; consumer spend caution among younger users ~2ppt FX headwind expected in 2025; FX impacted Q4 growth Persistent headwind
Product performance (Discover tab)Noted fall update performance; interest filters adoption Discover tab tested with higher engagement/matches; broader rollout mid-March Positive early data
Portfolio focus (BFF/Geneva)Geneva acquired; BFF strategic role as on-ramp; complementary segment BFF/Geneva positioned as friendship/community flywheel, with potential on-ramp into dating Building
Leadership/CFOTransformation under CEO; restructuring and talent upgrades Founder returning as CEO mid-March; CFO search underway; fully committed long-term Governance transition

Management Commentary

  • “Total revenue and adjusted EBITDA came in at the high end of their respective ranges, and Bumble App revenue outperformed our guidance.” – CEO Lidiane Jones .
  • “Our winter release will focus on confidence, safety, engagement and discovery…introducing a brand-new Discover tab…a new AI site photo picker…ID verification…” – CEO Lidiane Jones .
  • “We have decided to sunset Fruitz and Official…to hone our collective focus and attention on our core business.” – CEO Lidiane Jones .
  • “Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $73 million…we ended the year with $204 million in cash and cash equivalents.” – CFO Anuradha Subramanian .
  • “I have never been more confident in what’s ahead for Bumble…to make people fall back in love with the process of finding love.” – Founder Whitney Wolfe Herd .

Q&A Highlights

  • Margin outlook: Q1 Adj. EBITDA margin guided to ~25% midpoint due to revenue headwinds and investments in product/technology; margins expected to contract in 2025 before re-expanding with revenue growth .
  • Ecosystem work & payers: Q1 payer declines guided (100–120k sequential) as the company optimizes user mix and safety; revenue decline excluding FX and leap-year day expected to be smaller (3–5% for Bumble App) .
  • Discover tab & engagement: Early tests show higher engagement/more matches; interest filters adoption supports discovery improvements .
  • Strategy/talent: Strategy remains customer-centric; leadership team strengthened; CFO search a priority; founder committed long-term .
  • BFF/Geneva: Friendship/community seen as a strong on-ramp for Gen Z; potential flywheel to re-enter dating cohorts .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus via S&P Global for Q4 2024 was unavailable during retrieval; comparisons to consensus EPS/revenue could not be included. We benchmark actuals against company guidance ranges instead .
  • Given Q1 2025 guidance implies 7–10% total revenue decline (4–7% ex-FX) and margin contraction, Street estimates are likely to trend downward near term; Bumble App revenue is guided down 6–8% (3–5% ex-FX and leap-day effect) with sequential payer declines .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term top-line and margin headwinds: Q1 2025 guide shows revenue decline and margin contraction amid ecosystem clean-up and product/tech investment; expect sequential payer declines of 100–120k .
  • Execution beat on guidance: Q4 Bumble App revenue exceeded guidance high end; total revenue/EBITDA at/within ranges—discipline intact despite ARPPU pressure .
  • Product innovation cadence: Discover tab, AI photo picker, safety features (ID verification) are targeted to lift engagement, with monetization following; watch successive releases mid-March onward .
  • Strategic portfolio focus: Discontinuation of Fruitz and Official concentrates resources on Bumble/Badoo and BFF/Geneva flywheel opportunities .
  • Founder-led narrative: Whitney Wolfe Herd’s CEO return may catalyze brand and product momentum; governance stability enhanced with new Chair .
  • FX and mix impacts: Expect ~2ppt FX headwind in 2025; ARPPU pressured by geographic mix; monitor segment ARPPU and payer trends .
  • Capital returns: Buybacks continue with $64.7M remaining as of 1/31/2025, balanced against growth investments .