BM
BADGER METER INC (BMI)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 delivered record sales of $238.1M (+10% y/y), gross margin of 41.1% (+170 bps y/y), operating margin of 18.8% (-40 bps y/y), and diluted EPS of $1.17 (+4% y/y). Robust cash from operations was $44.6M (+22% y/y).
- Versus estimates, EPS missed (actual $1.17 vs consensus $1.254*), revenue was essentially in line ($238.095M vs $238.085M*), and EBITDA was below consensus ($53.686M vs $56.359M*). Drivers included higher SEA (SmartCover inclusion, deferred comp) and tariff-related cost pressures partially mitigated by pricing.
- Sequentially vs Q1: revenue rose to $238.1M from $222.2M, while gross margin moderated from 42.9% to 41.1% and EPS decreased from $1.30 to $1.17; operating margin fell from 22.2% to 18.8%.
- Guidance/tone: Management expects a sequential decline in Q3 core sales as several AMI projects wrapped up, with normalized gross margin range maintained at 38–40%, citing tariff uncertainty; SmartCover integration is on track.
- Capital allocation: Post-quarter, BMI raised its quarterly dividend 18% to $0.40 per share, marking 33 years of consecutive annual dividend increases.
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record sales and continued technology adoption in cellular AMI and BlueEdge solutions; SmartCover contributed in its first full quarter. “We delivered strong sales growth… yet another record sales quarter.”
- Structural mix benefits and operational excellence drove gross margin expansion y/y to 41.1% despite tariff pressures. “Structural mix benefit of technology adoption… gross margins expanded 170 bps.”
- Strong cash generation: cash from operations $44.6M (+22% y/y) and free cash flow increased 19% y/y to $40.6M, supported by working capital discipline.
What Went Wrong
- EPS and EBITDA misses vs consensus amid higher SEA and tariff-related cost impacts; interest income was lower due to acquisition capital deployment.
- SEA expenses rose $9.1M y/y to $52.9M (22.2% of sales) due to SmartCover (incl. $1.6M amortization) and ~$1.0M deferred compensation tied to stock price movement.
- Trade/copper tariff uncertainty persisted; pricing actions were mid-April and not fully effective across shipments, prompting caution on redrawing margin normalization.
Financial Results
Multi-Period Performance (oldest → newest)
Q2 2025 vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Segment / Product Line Indicators
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We delivered strong sales growth, solid profitability and robust cash flow against last year's quarterly sales high-water mark.” — Ken Bockhorst
- “Gross margins… expanded 170 basis points to 41.1%… pricing increases partially mitigated certain tariff-related cost pressures.” — Bob Wrocklage
- “We expect absolute sales to decline sequentially in the third quarter of 2025… excluding SmartCover.” — Ken Bockhorst
- “We remain on track to deliver the anticipated sales and cost synergies associated with the SmartCover acquisition.” — Ken Bockhorst
- “Cobalt… leverages machine learning for advanced insights within our BEACON platform.” — Ken Bockhorst
Q&A Highlights
- SEA trajectory and components: Investors probed the apparent step-up; management cited SmartCover inclusion ($1.6M amortization) and ~$1.0M deferred comp tied to stock price, with underlying investment pace consistent with recent years.
- Tariffs and pricing: Strategic price increases mid-April were not fully reflected across shipments; tariff cost uncertainty (incl. copper) restrains resetting GM normalization despite >40% GM again.
- AMI project timing: Several projects completed in Q2; new projects in hand but timing implies a sequential revenue decline in Q3 for core. Demand funnel remains robust.
- SmartCover contribution and EPS impact: ~first full quarter sales > prior run-rate; EPS decretive yr 1, accretive yr 2+ as commercial synergies scale and SEA base is leveraged.
- Mechanical vs ultrasonic under potential copper tariffs: BMI highlighted portfolio flexibility; could migrate customers to ultrasonic if economics shift, while continuing to mitigate mechanical meter costs.
- Funding resiliency: Multiple muni funding channels (SRF, WIFIA, rate increases, bonds) underpin continued investment despite EPA budget headlines.
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025 performance vs consensus: EPS $1.17 vs $1.254* (miss), revenue $238.095M vs $238.085M* (essentially in line), EBITDA $53.686M vs $56.359M* (miss). Mix shift and tariff costs, alongside higher SEA (SmartCover amortization, deferred comp), likely drove EPS/EBITDA underperformance.
- Forward look: Management’s expectation of a sequential sales decline in Q3 (core) suggests near-term estimate risk to revenue/EPS, while maintained 38–40% normalized GM range and strong underlying demand trends support medium-term estimate stability.
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Mix-led margin strength is intact; structural gross margin >40% continues, but tariff uncertainty (incl. copper) tempers near-term margin normalization changes.
- Near-term caution: Q3 core sales expected to decline sequentially due to AMI project timing; monitor sell-side revisions and Q3 order conversion cadence.
- SmartCover is strategically additive, with commercial synergies the key driver; expect EPS accretion from year 2 as SEA base is leveraged.
- Cash generation remains robust, enabling continued dividend growth (18% raise to $0.40) and optionality for innovation and M&A.
- SEA run-rate elevated by acquisition and unique deferred comp; watch expense leverage as integration matures and pricing actions flow through.
- Technology roadmap expanding (field app; Cobalt ML in BEACON), enhancing competitive differentiation and software attachment rates.
- Funding backdrop for municipal utilities remains supportive across multiple channels despite EPA headlines, sustaining long-term high single-digit growth conviction.