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BIMINI CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC. (BMNM)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 was solid: net income of $0.6 million ($0.06 per share) on net revenues of $3.69 million, with book value per share rising to $0.74 from $0.68 in Q4 2024 . Advisory services revenue benefited from Orchid Island Capital’s capital raises and higher equity base, supporting a 22% YoY and 6% QoQ increase to ~$3.6 million .
  • Rate stability and low volatility expanded spreads; the average economic interest rate spread improved to 1.60% vs. 0.69% in Q4 2024 and 0.05% in Q3 2024, driving better investment income contribution .
  • Liquidity and funding improved incrementally: repo rate eased to 4.47% (from 4.68% in Q4 2024), with repo outstanding at ~$115.5 million and liquidity of ~$4.5 million at quarter-end .
  • Management flagged early Q2 conditions as “challenging,” citing uncertainty from new U.S. tariffs; if the curve steepens or the Fed cuts further, both BMNM’s and Orchid’s net interest margins could benefit .
  • No formal guidance; no observable Street consensus for EPS or revenue in S&P Global; we compare actuals to prior periods rather than estimates (S&P Global data unavailable for consensus)* .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Spread expansion and benign Q1 markets: “Interest rates were generally range bound, and volatility was low... ideal conditions for a levered investment strategy in Agency RMBS,” supporting attractive returns .
    • Advisory services tailwind from Orchid: Orchid raised $205.4M; its equity rose to $855.9M, lifting Bimini advisory revenue to ~$3.6M (+22% YoY, +6% QoQ) .
    • Funding tailwinds: Repo cost fell to 4.47% (vs. 4.68% in Q4), and economic interest rate spread expanded to 1.60% from 0.69% in Q4 .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Early Q2 headwinds: Management cited “challenging” conditions and uncertainty from new tariff policy affecting macro and markets .
    • Operating expenses ticked up 4% QoQ to $2.92M (though -3% YoY), and “Other (expense) income” swung to a small loss of $(27,745) vs. a gain in Q1 2024 .
    • Liquidity edged down to ~$4.5M from ~$5.9M in Q4 2024, reflecting lower cash/unpledged MBS at quarter-end .

Financial Results

Headline results (oldest → newest)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Net Revenues ($)$3,009,901 $2,836,031 $3,685,309
Net Income (Loss) ($)$0.3M $(1,501,822) $552,570
Diluted EPS ($)$0.03 $(0.15) $0.06
Book Value/Share ($)$0.83 $0.68 $0.74
Avg Economic Interest Rate Spread (%)0.05% 0.69% 1.60%

Income statement components (composition) (oldest → newest)

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Advisory Services Revenue ($)$2,929,261 ~$3.4M $3,582,289
Interest & Dividend Income ($)$1,598,965 $1,554,080 $1,947,040
Interest Expense ($)$(1,815,678) $(1,982,610) $(1,844,020)
Net Revenues ($)$2,712,548 $2,836,031 $3,685,309
Other Income (Expense) ($)$926,731 $599,961 $(27,745)
Operating Expenses ($)$3,029,395 $3,840,310 $2,924,157
Net Income (Loss) ($)$213,108 $(1,501,822) $552,570
EPS ($)$0.02 $(0.15) $0.06

Key performance indicators (oldest → newest)

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Avg Yield on MBS (%)5.80% 5.56% 5.73%
Avg Cost of Funds (%)5.61% 4.87% 4.49%
Avg Economic Cost of Funds (%)5.75% 4.87% 4.13%
Avg Interest Rate Spread (%)0.19% 0.69% 1.24%
Avg Economic Interest Rate Spread (%)0.05% 0.69% 1.60%

Portfolio, funding and prepayment metrics (oldest → newest)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
MBS, Fair Value ($000s)$118,429 $122,348 $120,965
Effective Duration (yrs)2.627 3.622 3.257
Repo Outstanding ($000s)$113,023 $117,181 $115,511
Weighted Avg Repo Rate (%)5.20% 4.68% 4.47%
Liquidity ($000s)~$4,700 ~$5,900 ~$4,500
Total CPR (3-mo) (%)6.3% 11.1% 7.3%

Consensus vs. actual (Q1 2025)

MetricConsensusActual
EPSN/A*$0.06
Revenue (Net Revenues)N/A*$3,685,309

*Values retrieved from S&P Global (no consensus available)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total company guidance2025None providedNone providedMaintained (no formal quantitative guidance)
Commentary on macro/tariffs2Q 2025N/AManagement flagged challenging conditions; potential benefit if curve steepens and/or Fed cuts furtherQualitative only
Dividend policy2025N/ANo specific dividend guidance disclosedN/A

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Macro/Rate PathQ3: Fed pivot, first 50 bps cut; rates/volatility backdrop and hedging drove results . Q4: Further cuts in 2024; curve dis-inversion; shifting expectations into 2025 .Q1: “Relatively uneventful,” low vol, range-bound rates; early Q2 challenged amid tariff uncertainty .From improving to uncertain early Q2
Spreads/Funding CostsQ3: Spreads near breakeven; cost of funds elevated . Q4: Spreads improved to 0.69%; repo rate 4.68% .Q1: Economic spread up to 1.60%; repo rate 4.47% .Improving through Q1
Orchid Capital RaisesQ3: Equity +$100M+; advisory revenue ~$3.3M . Q4: Equity up to $668.5M; advisory revenue $3.4M .Q1: Orchid raised $205.4M; equity $855.9M; BMNM advisory ~$3.6M (+22% YoY, +6% QoQ) .Positive tailwind
Portfolio PositioningQ3: PT MBS growth; hedging losses offset MBS gains . Q4: PT ROIC ~6.7%; combined ~5.6% .Q1: PT ROIC ~4.6%; combined ~4.4%; no Q1 add, but added in 2024 .Moderating quarter ROIC
Prepayments (CPR)Q3: 6.3% total . Q4: 11.1% total .Q1: 7.3% total .Normalizing from Q4 spike
Regulatory/Policy—Tariffs from new administration cited as risk/uncertainty .Emerging risk factor

Management Commentary

  • “These are ideal conditions for a levered investment strategy in Agency RMBS. Accordingly, the Company and the Agency RMBS market generated attractive returns for the period.” — Robert E. Cauley, Chairman & CEO
  • “Orchid... raise[d] additional capital, enhancing the Company’s advisory service revenues going forward.”
  • “With funding costs down as a result of Fed rate cuts late in 2024, our net interest income... increased substantially.”
  • “Conditions so far in the second quarter have been challenging... uncertainty about how the tariffs... will ultimately impact the economy and markets.”
  • “To the extent the economy slows... and/or longer-term interest rates rise... both the Company’s investment portfolio as well as Orchid’s could benefit from enhanced net interest margins resulting from the steeper interest rate curve.”

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q&A session; the call concluded after prepared remarks, with management inviting follow-up by phone .

Estimates Context

  • No Wall Street consensus for EPS or revenue was available in S&P Global for Q1 2025; we therefore benchmarked results vs. prior quarter and prior year instead (S&P Global data unavailable for consensus)*.
  • Given the advisory-fee-driven revenue model and small-cap OTC listing, formal sell-side coverage appears limited in recent quarters, aligning with the absence of estimates*.
    *Values retrieved from S&P Global

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Spread expansion was the key driver: average economic spread reached 1.60% (from 0.69% in Q4), aided by lower funding costs; this supported stronger net revenues and positive EPS in Q1 .
  • Advisory revenue momentum is intact and levered to Orchid’s AUM growth; Orchid’s $205M raise and equity increase to $855.9M should sustain BMNM’s fee base near-term .
  • Book value/share recovered to $0.74 from $0.68 in Q4, reflecting better marks and earnings; sustaining BV accretion hinges on spread durability and volatility remaining contained .
  • Early Q2 macro risk skew: tariff uncertainty and shifting Fed expectations may raise rate volatility; paradoxically, a steeper curve could further aid net interest margins if realized .
  • Funding environment improving: repo costs eased to 4.47% with balanced counterparties; maintaining ample liquidity (~$4.5M) reduces forced-sale risk in stress .
  • Prepayment behavior normalized (7.3% CPR) after Q4’s elevated speeds; portfolio duration (3.257) and hedge posture remain important levers for BV stability .
  • Tactical watch items: Orchid’s capital flows (fee tailwind), Fed path and curve slope (spread driver), and any Q2 tariff-related market dislocations that could influence marks and BV trajectory .

References: Q1 2025 press release and 8-K with exhibits ; Q1 2025 earnings call transcript ; Q4 2024 press release and 8-K ; Q3 2024 press release .